Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe

Introducing a bigger and better BludgerTrack. Also featured: a status quo result from Essential Research, at least so far as the major parties are concerned.

First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.

The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.

Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.

Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.

The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe”

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  1. “Mr Joyce said he was contacted by multiple media organisations last week asking whether Vikki Campion’s boy – due to be born next month – was actually his, prompting his extraordinary interview with Fairfax Media on Saturday.”

    I have just been searching and can find ZERO reports – even in some muckraking sites – questioning the paternity of the Campion baby prior to Barnaby questioning it himself. Does anyone have any prior evidence of somebody other than Barnaby questioning it?

  2. Just listening to the ABC radio news say, “The Australian government remains in the dark as to the effect and application of Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium…”

    Turnbull really DID get conned, didn’t he?

    Forced to smarmily dismiss discussion about gun violence in America, dragged all his corporate billionaire mates with him to meet the Trumps, waxed lyrical about the state of the alliance… AND THAT RED TIE!

    All for nothing. What a sucker.

  3. BB,
    Turnbull really DID get conned, didn’t he?

    We seemed to be in a situation where Trump was going to be the leverage Turnbull needed for the company tax cuts, and now he’s got to argue (correctly in my view) against protectionism.

    You would think by now every politician would know not to associate any political arguments with Trump.

  4. As has been pointed out on twitter, there are examples of Barnaby making references to ‘my unborn child’ and ‘my son’, so the idea that he’s never claimed paternity is a furphy.

    He is also now claiming he was out of the country at the time of conception (amazing how he knows the date) — but he claimed travel expenses to Sydney and Canberra around the same period.

  5. Turnbull really DID get conned, didn’t he?

    Such a slow learner.

    Merkel, Macron, Trudeau, even the Mexican President have Trump’s measure. Malcolm Turnbull? Not a chance.

  6. soc,

    I think he’s flailing.

    We were supposed to admire him for taking responsibility even though he thinks there is some doubt about the paternity.

    When that wasn’t the way people saw it he then had to have an excuse for being a wanker.

  7. Mike Carlton‏ @MikeCarlton01 · 12m12 minutes ago

    Yes ! The Beetrooter ! From Here to Paternity, a stunning winner of the Gold Kenny for Right Wing Fuckwit of the Week.

  8. Soc

    My theory is that the rumours have been deliberately planted just so Barnaby could then come out and (reluctantly) confirm them.

    He does have a media adviser who might suggest that kind of approach to him…

  10. Truffles career involves , property speculation in Sydney. ‘lawyering’, Merchant banking, politician. There seems to be a pattern forming as to his attraction to least trusted occupations. Perhaps he has a natural gift for such things.

  12. Which other world leader can Turnbull hitch his wagon to?

    He looks down his snooty nose at the NZ PM. He’s in a perennial war of words with the Chinese leadership. The UK PM is hardly worth knowing at present. As for European leaders – Turnbull hardly knows who they are and they care precious little about him.

    This is where Trump comes in, some recent happy snaps with ‘my best buddy’ and I’m yours.

  13. socrates says:
    Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 6:07 pm
    “Mr Joyce said he was contacted by multiple media organisations last week asking whether Vikki Campion’s boy – due to be born next month – was actually his, prompting his extraordinary interview with Fairfax Media on Saturday.”

    I have just been searching and can find ZERO reports – even in some muckraking sites – questioning the paternity of the Campion baby prior to Barnaby questioning it himself. Does anyone have any prior evidence of somebody other than Barnaby questioning it?
    —————————————————

    I can remember a post here in the last couple of days about Lib members spreading rumours about it, so it was definitely out there.

  14. No matter how Joyce tries to reposition himself, his history is clear.

    He has steadfastly opposed non-traditional marriage formation. He has opposed sex before marriage. He has invited moral panic around cervical cancer vaccines. He campaigned against equal marriage. Let me repeat that. He campaigned against equal marriage. He voted for drug testing welfare recipients. He told the unemployed to “get off their backside and do your very best to find a job”. Now he is, at the very least, trying to sow doubt in the minds of the public.

    There is no recovery from any of those positions.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/real-life/barnaby-joyce-paternity-tests-dont-make-you-a-father-20180304-h0wyl5

  15. The best advice for Barnaby is to stay quiet. I’m sure that’s what everyone in the government want. To my partisan delight I don’t think he can.

  16. You only get a Darwin award if you take your genes out of the genes pool by doing something incredibly stupid.
    Doing something incredibly stupid and surviving does not count.

  17. My theory is that the rumours have been deliberately planted just so Barnaby could then come out and (reluctantly) confirm them.

    If that’s true then it really does show what a cowardly and gormless twit he really is.

  18. Boerwar

    Hello Boer or should I call you “Butter box” ? 🙂 In case you missed it. 😆 Dutch Feast, done that ‘me self’
    .
    1811 DICTIONARY OF THE VULGAR TONGUE.

    BUTTER BOX. A Dutchman, from the great quantity of
    butter eaten by the people of that country.

    DUTCH COMFORT. Thank God it is no worse.

    DUTCH CONCERT. Where every one plays or sings a
    different tune.

    DUTCH FEAST. Where the entertainer gets drunk before
    his guest.

    http://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/5402/pg5402-images.html

  19. Clem Attlee @ #3408 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 1:52 pm

    Anyone who seriously thinks Labor will get any where near winning the number of WA seats in the Bludger Track side bar have really taken a huge slurp from the Kool Aid. It will not happen!

    In the last few weeks I’ve been doorknocking in Aveley, which is the second most conservative booth in metropolitan Pearce, was of the two large metropolitan booths which went conservative by a material margin in the 2016 election and unlike the Mindarie booth, is winnable for Labor due to demographic shift. The feedback we got from several hundred voters was very Labor positive.

    The importance of the Aveley booth for both Labor and Liberal is that all plausible roads to victory in Pearce go through the Aveley booth.

    Barring a black swan event, Porter is gone in Pearce.

    The demographics in three of the other four winnable seats in WA are similar to metropolitan Pearce. Stirling I have my doubts about, Labor will have to do VERY well east of the Mitchell Freeway to win there.

    Briefly and myself have actualy campaigned on the ground in WA, what is the basis of your opinion Clem Attlee?

  20. I believe that Barnaby could well be showing symptoms of acute depression, which would be entirely understandable given the circumstances in which he finds himself. Once on the downward spiral, self-loathing and paranoia can manifest themselves, and negative thoughts can become overwhelming. If so, he has my sympathy in relation to the illness, but not with regard to maladministration and rorting.

  21. Mike Carlton‏ @MikeCarlton01 · 2h2 hours ago

    #4Corners #WeatherAlert

    Am reliably informed this is a must-watch. Real people dealing with real climate change. Unlike our political masters.

  22. I’d imagine you’d be a contender for a Darwin if you got your balls blown off in some sort of crazy Jackass type stunt. Not necessarily posthumous

  25. Left of Labor‏ @Left_of_Labor · 4m4 minutes ago

    #RT “Stop LABOR’S Adani Mine” posters have gone up all over #BatmanVotes

    Surely @RichardDiNatale needs to make a Captain’s call and order these misleading and totally deceptive signs be pulled down. Or explain how it is “Labor’s” mine? #auspol #Springst

    This is Dirty Politics

  26. It seems odd that any sensible Libs would want to keep the story alive. Perhaps they know there will be a Barnaby round 2, and they want him out of parliament?

  27. I believe that Barnaby could well be showing symptoms of acute depression, which would be entirely understandable given the circumstances in which he finds himself.

    I can believe it too. Even more reason why he needs to stay away from the media and focus on him and his family. Publicly commenting in the media every other day whether it’s responding to rumours or otherwise is doing nothing for anyone, least of all him.

    Time for Barnaby to man up by shutting up.

  28. What is also interesting about the Trump steel announcement is that it comes at the same time as Australia is pushing for Trump to reconsider his opposition to the TPP and ” come back on board .”

    So many questions will now arise as to the benefits to Australia of even holding these discussions with America given this approach on tariffs.

    What more will Austealia have to give up for the yanks to join up ?

    Just as important will be the reaction of the other signatories to the TPP to even the possibility of the yanks signing up ?

    Cheers.

  29. Yabba88 @ #3254 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 6:31 pm

    I believe that Barnaby could well be showing symptoms of acute depression, which would be entirely understandable given the circumstances in which he finds himself. Once on the downward spiral, self-loathing and paranoia can manifest themselves, and negative thoughts can become overwhelming. If so, he has my sympathy in relation to the illness, but not with regard to maladministration and rorting.

    If Tony Windsor says he’s a grub, he’s a grub.

  30. The man who wrote the blueprint for Tony Abbott’s deeply unpopular 2014 budget has been handed $50,000 of taxpayers’ money – with no competitive tender process – to conduct a secret Turnbull government review.

    The Department of Industry awarded businessman and prominent Liberal Party supporter Tony Shepherd a $55,000 contract to conduct a 17-day review of the troubled Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility late last year.

    Mr Shepherd was the architect of the Coalition’s Commission of Audit – the document that paved the way for Mr Abbott’s austere first budget, which sparked an angry public backlash and sowed the seeds of the then prime minister’s political downfall.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/audit-boss-tony-shepherd-was-paid-50-000-for-secret-government-review-20180304-p4z2qi.html

  31. zoomster @ #3458 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 3:20 pm

    Soc

    My theory is that the rumours have been deliberately planted just so Barnaby could then come out and (reluctantly) confirm them.

    He does have a media adviser who might suggest that kind of approach to him…

    My theory is that this is a plot cooked up by a media adviser (no prizes for guessing who) to boost the message that Campion wasn’t his partner at the time.

    Why? Because they know they’re both in the shit over the “jobs for girlfriends” scandal.

  33. Yabba88. Very perceptive. Barney is slowly understanding that his political career is over. After flying high for so long and thinking he was invulnerable, he is now just road-kill. That is pretty hard to accept. Indeed, I am starting to wonder if he will be pre-selected at the next election.

  35. BB

    “The Australian government remains in the dark as to the effect and application of Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium…”

    The Australian Government being in the dark is SOP.
    In this case the ramifications are multifarious and large:
    1. Impact on direct exports
    2. Impact on Chinese steel exports to the US
    3. Indirect impact by way of contained steel in Chinese exports to the US
    4. The flow-on impacts as a global trade war gets going.
    Australia is one of the most trade-exposed economies in the world.
    Trump is a huge disaster for us.

  36. “Truffles career involves , property speculation in Sydney. ‘lawyering’, Merchant banking, politician. There seems to be a pattern forming as to his attraction to least trusted occupations. “

    Another thing about Malcolm’s pre politics career – nothing about leadership or teamwork. It’s all wheeling and dealing, speculation, always an eye to the main chance.

  37. In relation to Joyce, there were signs last year that he was losing it. These signs are growing. My view, FWIW, is that everyone on the Coalition and the cretinous MSM should take a leaf from Labor’s book and leave him alone.

    He seems to be to be dangerously close to a certain edge.

  39. So, the battling bully* from Batman gets in and… stops the Adani mine?

    What.A.Great.Big.Fucking.Lie.

    *alleged by over a dozen Greens folk and what would they know, really?

  41. Boerwar @ #3271 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 6:57 pm

    In relation to Joyce, there were signs last year that he was losing it. These signs are growing. My view, FWIW, is that everyone on the Coalition and the cretinous MSM should take a leaf from Labor’s book and leave him alone.

    He seems to be to be dangerously close to a certain edge.

    Well, no, Labor should do their job and hold his actions as DPM and Minister to account.

  43. “Well, no, Labor should do their job and hold his actions as DPM and Minister to account.”

    I agree. Why aren’t they? Is there an MAD type situation?

  44. Boerwar

    The issue with Joyce has absolutely nothing to do with his personal relationship etc. It has everything to do with ripping off the taxpayer to assist his personal circumstances. Also, he has questions to answer regarding his portfolios that he has been in charge of.
    All this crapola about whether he was or wasn’t in a relationship is just distraction and disgusting conduct by him. He is not a teenager. but a 50 year old man.
    He needs to own his decisions.

  45. Joyce would also be suffering from discovering how many ‘mates’ were ‘mates’ because he was the DPM and not because he was Barnaby Joyce.

  46. We can all have our theories about why Joyce has done this or that but for me it has finally become obvious to the rest of the world what I have always thought: the man is an idiot.

    He has had people in the Nats, the Government and the media running protection for him throughout his career.

    He finally made the indefensible mistake and he has been cut loose and left to his own devices the truth is out. He is an idiot.

    Two points have been made and are worth repeating. Bruce Scott delayed his retirement from the seat of Maranoa to keep it out of Joyce’s hands and Warren Truss stayed on as DPM until he had no choice.

    They would have known Joyce better than most and they didn’t like him.

  47. Fark, the first 10 minutes plus of ABC news is non stop Trumble!
    Trumble announcing rail line plan to Bagerys Creek, Trumble with Trump, Trumble not commenting on Barnaby, and Trumble at the Mardi Gras.

    ABC making amends for daring to criticise government policy, I guess.

  48. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-04/tasmanian-opposition-leader-apologises-to-premier/9507362

    Tasmania’s Labor Leader Rebecca White has apologised for not congratulating re-elected Premier Will Hodgman in her concession speech, saying it was an “oversight”.

    The leader also admitted she has already had leadership discussions with incoming Labor MP David O’Byrne, who had given an undertaking that he would not be a challenger.

    :::
    Ms White said Labor’s view would not change on pokies, despite some of her candidates last night suggesting voters thought the policy went too far.

  49. Presumably Barnaby’s pension arrangements will have a bearing on how long he tries to stay in parliament. He’s probably already consulted a financial adviser and divorce lawyer.

  50. Antony Green on the Tas election:

    The Liberal Party almost matched its 2014 result, polling above 50 per cent for the second election in a row.

    Mr Hodgman’s personal percentage vote in Franklin is also the third highest in modern times, and in vote terms will pass Doug Lowe’s 1979 record.

    While Labor has recovered from its 2014 drubbing, Labor’s vote share of just under 33 per cent is its third worst result since the Second World War.

    Green support at ten per cent is below its previous low, recorded in 1998, and the party may yet be reduced to the single Denison seat it won in 1998.

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