Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe

Introducing a bigger and better BludgerTrack. Also featured: a status quo result from Essential Research, at least so far as the major parties are concerned.

First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.

The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.

Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.

Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.

The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe”

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  1. pegasus “What’s so funny about running a campaign on an environmental issue around what could be the world’s biggest thermal coal mine, a mine which would impact on global warning.

    But apparently the consequences of global warming are only limited to Queensland.”

    exactly. Couldnt have said it bttter.

  2. Adani is not a Labor mine. Coalition Governments approved it, Coalition figures are spruiking it, even though the economics don’t add up, even though investors, who care about money, not the Reef, won’t touch it. It will funnel some money into certain accounts in tax havens no matter what happens, but it won’t dig up a kilo of coal, not let a single CO2 molecule into the atmosphere and certainly won’t create a single job other than for lawyers and tax accountants. It’s a dead parrot, not even an ex-mine but a non-mine.

    Were Bill to come out and explicitly say he’ll block it, he gives the Government a get out of jail free card. The Coalition will go to town, the screaming headline in the Murdochracy would be “Shorten kills 200,000 Queensland Jobs”, or whatever number they think they can get away with, repeated endlessly without challenge by other media.

    Shorten can’t do anything from Opposition.

  3. Big A Adrian @ #1729 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 8:19 pm

    Darren Laver, Adani is an issue that should concern everyone in the whole country.

    What’s the next big green scare campaign going to be, stop Labor’s dropbears ?
    Looks like the punters in Tassie, having seen the green action for 35 years, have judged accordingly

  4. Pegasus @ #3586 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:16 pm

    “Pray tell when Labor became the federal government and could stop the Adani mine?”

    Too funny.

    The line run at every opportunity here is everything is the fault of the Greens. This is despite the party having never been in government and you know, being just a fringe / protest group with no relevance.

    Apparently, it’s okay to run this defence for Labor who has been in government many times over the decades.

    Too funny.

    Your logical ineptitude is showing, Pegasus.

    Labor supporters make valid observations about the policy which has resulted when The Greens have supported the Coalition government. So, yes, The Greens are not the government, BUT they have supported the government. Therefore it is a valid contention to make sometimes that The Greens DO find themselves at fault for bad outcomes.

    And no too cute by half attempt to explain away the effect of The Greens in politics today will therefore cut it by way of giving yourself a leave pass for The Greens.

  5. Darren Laver says:
    Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 9:14 pm

    …”My understanding is that the seat of Batman is in Victoria and not Queensland.
    AEC website should be able to confirm this.”…

    Here in the great state of Queensland, we have decided to use Barnaby Joyce’s, you beaut inland rail to shuttle 600 million tonnes of mine tailings to Victoria, where they will be dumped in inner Melbourne.

    The voters of Batman are justifiably concerned.

  6. victoria,

    my comment was directed to bemused but you chipped in.

    bemused and i have exchanged posts on garrett…i asked him what he thought of garrett. he responded wtte she was self-entitled….

    i floated this view with my friends today and reported their responses in my post just now, a post directed to bemused.

    what i think is of no consequence but do keep insinuating whatever you want.

  7. [Yeah cos if Batman goes Green, they will be able to stop the Adani mine.

    Yes it is quite infantile really.

    And my understanding is most Batmen (or do we say Batpersons?) realise this.

    The Greens’ campaign is ill-focussed and designed to simply damage Labor to assist the Coalition at all levels.

  8. Peg and Big A,

    Under what scenario would the mine go ahead?

    Under what scenario has Labor said the mine would go ahead?

    Are the two compatible?


  9. What’s so funny about running a campaign on an environmental issue around what could be the world’s biggest thermal coal mine, a mine which would impact on global warning.

    But apparently the consequences of global warming are only limited to Queensland.

    The “my party, right or wrong” fanatics only care about climate change, or even believe in it, to the extent that it is (thankfully) in keeping with the current party platform.

    If from tomorrow onwards the party HQ were to adopt a denialist stance, the fanatics would be synchronised swimming.

  10. The consensus of the group, who are predominantly labor supporters, is batman is gone for labor, as is brunswick (state seat).

    i said i didn’t think so….what a defeatist attitude that was.

  11. The odd thing about the Adani mine is it won’t go ahead any way. It will never make money. The infrastructure will get built and then the prices will be too low. It is a global market and other coal mining areas of the world will be producing better quality coal for cheaper prices. The Adani company are playing the conservative side here for money by creating a situation where they need to be seen to backing coal against the environmental movement.
    Both the pro and against coal movements see themselves winning the battle whilst missing this critical fact.

  12. Pegasus @ #3597 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:22 pm

    What’s so funny about running a campaign on an environmental issue around what could be the world’s biggest thermal coal mine, a mine which would impact on global warning.

    But apparently the consequences of global warming are only limited to Queensland.

    Because it is disingenuous to run a campaign on Adani when neither a successful Greens candidate, or a successful Labor candidate can do anything about it.

  13. ratsak says:
    Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 8:40 pm
    As a short antidote to Green wars and whilst we await Newspoll here’s something everyone (well not Lib voters but who care about them) can get behind!

    Thats 2.28 minutes i will never get back Ratsak. The lyricist is no Springsteen.

  14. If, having campaigned so hard on Adani, the Greens win Batman will anybody ask Turnbull if the Tories will block the mine?


    All the questions will be to Labor and the Greens will be proud of themselves.

  15. Just been reading over the past few pages while lunching at cricket.

    At risk of being accused of attacking the Greens, but they seem a little confused.

    They think ALP can change government policy whilst in opposition (pssst – secret: they can’t)

    Bhathal thinks she can change/make govt policy whilst holding a single seat in HoR (pssst – secret: they can’t)

    These are perfect examples of the pie-in-the-sky stuff that Greens seem hell bent on convincing people can happen despite the reality of facts and their relative position of power (or lack thereof)

  16. kevjohnno/socrates

    I can remember a post here in the last couple of days about Lib members spreading rumours about it, so it was definitely out there

    I think Coorey mentioned this morning on Insiders that a rumour on this was circulating among the Libs and the Press Gallery before Xmas on the paternity of Campions child.

  17. Voice endeavour. You are talking about state government price caps, not federal. How would the federal government be able to do that across the whole continent? They don’t have the power constitutionally. It infringes on states rights and inter state trade commerce IIRC. It’s bullshit, they know it, we know it and any half intelligent Batman voter should know it.

  18. Nicholas

    The Adani mine is only alive because Labor refuses to kill it.

    So you think they should ‘kill it’ at a time that suites the Greens rather than the Labor Party?

    The Greens have no way, of course, of ‘killing it’ themselves anytime.

    They must feel totally powerless … they’re fringe dwellers.

  19. About Barnaby’s depression.
    Considering the mental harm, anxiety and depression Barnaby has caused to others, just from his opposition to SSM, I have not one jot of sympathy for anything he may be suffering.
    If he suffers, he suffers. There are others more in need of my concern than that preek.

  20. Steve777 @ #1996 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 9:42 am

    Re Trog @9:51AM. Maybe Labor could come up with a policy that lists all possible activities that might considered as ‘sex’ and an indication of whether they are allowed between MP’s and staffers or not. Maybe a ‘traffic light’ rating system: red, amber, green.

    Nah, just explicitly enumerate the things that are okay between MP’s and their subordinates:

    – Handshakes
    – Hugs
    – Fruity air-kisses

    Alles andere ist verboten!

    I mean seriously, if you want to have a power-imbalanced relationship with someone who works for you, go and do it in the private sector where at least the taxpayers won’t be left to foot the bill when you’re slapped with the inevitable sexual harassment suit.

    Puff, The Magic Dragon @ #3631 Monday, March 5th, 2018 – 12:00 pm

    About Barnaby’s depression.
    Considering the mental harm, anxiety and depression Barnaby has caused to others, just from his opposition to SSM, I have not one jot of sympathy for anything he may be suffering.

    Agree. How many people have experienced mental harm, anxiety, and depression as a direct result of Joyce’s unilateral decision to relocate their jobs to Armidale? Here’s someone who through a quirk of Australian politics wields far more power than they’ve any right to and chooses to mostly use it for self-serving (and/or hypocritical) bullshit.

    I don’t care how sad Joyce feels about how the fallout from the marriage-wrecking affair he willingly participated in has wrecked his marriage and affair. It’s just a smidgen of Karmic justice. Zero fucks given.

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