First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.
The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.
Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.
Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.
The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.
Thanks PhoenixRed and fess for the updates on the Trump imbroglio.
I am trying to multitask to keep up to date, but it is a moving feast.
Lol!!
Confessions says: Friday, March 2, 2018 at 9:35 am
phoenixRed:
This says it all. How much longer can Kushner survive?
***************************************************
As Rick Wilson said yesterday he may as well have “For Sale” tattooed on him – and if it was anyone else than Trump’s SIL he would already be in Federal prison
Bill Palmer – To get Kushner to flip on his own father-in-law, Mueller will have to hit Kushner with the kind of overwhelming evidence of serious crimes that’ll make Kushner realize he has no chance of winning at trial. Mueller has to build that strong of a case. Until he’s finished that case, there would be no point in arresting Kushner on anything less. The good news? Based on Mueller’s recent moves, it would seem he’s nearly there.
(post seems to have disappeared, try again)
DT dead tree front page blaming Labor for rumour about minister/staffer liaison rumour.
http://dailytelegraph.digitaleditions.com.au/edition.php?code=NCTELE
Shorten should promise to moderate the Bonk Ban using a Clinton precedent. i.e.fellatio in, penetrative sex out.
This allows for a reduction in parliamentary tensions, while maintaining plausible deniability.
Just a thought.
“I believe that The Australian just wants to be sure The Greens’ candidate is properly scrutinised, and that the Labor candidate wins because they have assessed her as the superior candidate on offer. Do you not agree? ”
Glad you put the 🙂 in there C@t. I was just about to choke on my coffee.
[Trog Sorrenson says:
Friday, March 2, 2018 at 9:44 am
The Greens have put Adami firmly on the agenda. Sounds like a decent accomplishment for a party with no influence. (LOL)]
Stuff and nonsense. Get up have had a long-standing active campaign (to which I donate) to stop the Adani mine.
If the Greens win in Batman it will mean Bathal will occasionally be able to parade around saying how terrible our treatment of refugees/climate change/etc is without actually being able to do anything. It will mean losing Ged Kearney’s progressive views in the ALP Caucus which, with the election of an ALP government, might actually influence the outcomes for refugees/climate change etc in a meaningful way.
phoenixRed:
If Jared goes down on fed crimes daddy in law will likely pardon him.
Problem is he’s also facing state investigations.
Scott DworkinVerified account @funder
I can’t wait ‘til the day Trump says he never met Jared Kushner—& his followers believe him.
ratsak @ #1908 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 5:01 am
I think they are highlighting that the Greens are just another political Party with all the internal bickering and bullsh!t associated with that.
It’s a win-win story from their perspective.
They can happily continue this story and the like if the Greens win but if Ged gets up that plays straight into the narrative of just another Union hack and Union control of the Labor Party.
Windhover
Stuff your own nonsense.
Bhathal will be voting with Labor on environmental issues. (Unless Labor policies are inadequate.)
Good to see you are donating to stop Adani. Bad luck if GetUp is killed off by Dutton, so we wouldn’t want Labor going in half-baked on that. Would we?
SK,
Indeed. The corporate social responsibility bullshit is just a front. A veneer to help camouflage the destruction wrought by deregulation that removes protections in environmental and social domains.
Rather than being held to standards, corporations are let off the leash to do what their PR can smooth over.
The entire idea of corporate social responsibility is a shame. Corporations law demands that a corporate board seeks to maximize shareholders returns. There is nothing controversial about this. That is the proper use for the corporate person fiction. But that being the case it is the proper use of government to set strict parameters for the corporation to work within for the larger societies benefit and protection.
One of the most important of these should be the severe restriction of the executive class misappropriating the resources of the corporation to overwhelm the political debate to their own self interest.
The role for the corporate voice in our political discourse should be zero. The corporation is a fiction created for a specific purpose of making money. The obvious conflict of interest between that purpose and the wider interests of society and the obvious power imbalance along with the simple fact that the corporation is not a real person and not able to vote demand that it be prevented from participating in the political process.
Of course shareholders and managers are completely free to participate in politics, but as private individuals using their personal resources. The moment they appropriate the resources of the corporation to advance their private interests should be treated the same as any other form of misappropriation.
guytaur,
Just as a point of reference, Alex Bhathal won the preselection ballot 230-19.
For whatever this is worth…
Soon no one will be left in the White House but Trump.
And Stephen bleedin’ Miller!!
Someone really has to write a book called, ‘The World According to Stephen Miller the Human Cockroach’.
Is Philip Roth or John Irving still alive!?!
If this happens it will indeed be a spectacle!
Windhover @ #1937 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 5:37 am
Nothing!
If Adani can get the mine to stand up on it’s own merits financially and environmentally it will go ahead.
I (Shorten) don’t think they can do that, so it won’t happen.
🙂
C@tmomma @ #1874 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:06 am
Both are, to my knowledge. It would make an interesting collaboration!!!
Good summary of the role of corporates ratsak.
@Winhover – 9:37 am
You are missing nothing. There is no Shorten two-faced position on Adani. Just a dishonest Greens-LNP anti Labor wedge
And while we are talking about how folk from the left and right alike are prepared to pile onto the ‘KillBill’ meme let’s not pass over Zanetti’s depiction of young women as sexual objects – more collateral damage to make ‘the point’. How the fuck Lachie doesn’t summarily dismiss him over that – and his editor for publishing it beggars belief.
[Trog Sorrenson says:
Friday, March 2, 2018 at 9:59 am
Windhover
Stuff your own nonsense.]
What nonsense I should be stuffing you don’t say.
[Bhathal will be voting with Labor on environmental issues. (Unless Labor policies are inadequate.)]
Please, don’t remind me of the Green’s terrible posturing on the CPRS which has directly led to years of uncertain climate change policy.
[Good to see you are donating to stop Adani. Bad luck if GetUp is killed off by Dutton, so we wouldn’t want Labor going in half-baked on that. Would we?]
No, we wouldn’t. Do you see it as a risk Labor might go in half-baked?
I sure hope Ged Kearney gets into the Labor caucus to ensure that doesn’t happen. Don’t you?
What am I missing?
Only that nuance born of responsibility is verboten.
The Coalition is inherently irresponsible so have no problem making any old simplistic nonsense argument.
The Greens never have to bother themselves with the duty of government and so can also sell any old nonsense comfortable in the fact they will never have to deal with the consequences of implementation.
And our media is grotesquely irresponsible concerned only with getting the next click, pushing the corporate barrow, and ensuring their access in order to never have to work for each day’s clickbait.
In such an environment balancing conflicting priorities, forces and constituencies is much simpler to smear as vacillation and weakness than to evaluate in its context of complexity.
The Trump Crime Family is on a roll today :
Exclusive: FBI counterintel investigating Ivanka Trump business deal
US counterintelligence officials are scrutinizing one of Ivanka Trump’s international business deals, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
The FBI has been looking into the negotiations and financing surrounding Trump International Hotel and Tower in Vancouver, according to a US official and a former US official. The scrutiny could be a hurdle for the first daughter as she tries to obtain a full security clearance in her role as adviser to President Donald Trump.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/01/politics/ivanka-trump-fbi-investigation/index.html
Ratso, there is a clear need for international rules around national company tax rates to avoid this rush to the bottom (along the lines of WTO Tariff rules and the growing efforts to trace and tax the base erosion and profit shifting by multinationals).
Ha ha ha ha guffaw.
Trog @ 9:51 – strange that you should focus on the sexual satisfaction of a male sex partner. Isn’t that focus ‘the problem’ in the first instance. What are youre thoughts on cunnilingus?
Windhover
Yet again you blame the Greens for the disaster that is the LNP. Stop excusing them.
The Greens joined Labor and passed Climate policy not forgetting those conservative independents.
This is a reality. The only people responsible for Tony Abbott are the mob in the LNP and the people that voted for them.
No matter how you try and rewrite history that’s the facts not the mythical oh if only the Greens caved the LNP would have caved
guytaur Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 9:37 am Comment #1936
Sovereign risk wasn’t ‘dismissed’.
It was assessed by the Andrews Govt and, in this particular case, the Govt decided that they’d ‘wear’ it as the consequences of going ahead were worse.
I think News Limited can tolerate another Green if it means more problems for Labor.
Which is exactly my point and why I find the attack on the Greens strange in the timing not the substance.
Windhover
Yes.
Labor has one foot in the corporate camp.
It wants to ban foreign donations, which is laudible, but not at the expense of grass-roots activism.
I think PollBludger needs a separate dedicated thread for this.
[guytaur says:
Friday, March 2, 2018 at 10:18 am
Windhover
Yet again you blame the Greens for the disaster that is the LNP. Stop excusing them.
The Greens joined Labor and passed Climate policy not forgetting those conservative independents.]
Oh, silly me. All these years I have been under the misapprehension that the ALP under Kevin Rudd had twice failed to get the CPRS through the Senate because the Greens had voted against it.
Can you please get wiki to correct its entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_Pollution_Reduction_Scheme
SquigglyRick: Extraordinary day. Govt admits 40,000 ~more~ age pensioners caught in asset test changes and a disability pension crackdown backfires almost completely. theaustralian.com.au/national-affai… pic.twitter.com/vVClFYbmZI
I just think the Australian has decided to stir up the Greens v ALP battle to hurt both a bit nationally. I doubt they give a rats about which wins Batman.
[CTar1 says:
Friday, March 2, 2018 at 10:18 am
guytaur Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 9:37 am Comment #1936
BW
BS. Sovereign risk was dismissed by Daniel Andrews in ripping up contracts. Rightly so they were bad economic contracts.
Sovereign risk wasn’t ‘dismissed’.
It was assessed by the Andrews Govt and, in this particular case, the Govt decided that they’d ‘wear’ it as the consequences of going ahead were worse.]
CTAr1: Not only was sovereign risk not dismissed, the government paid $1B in compensation to mitigate the effects of sovereign risk.
Andrew_Earlwood
I thought of that when I wrote my comprehensive analysis above. The trouble is that if you just specify “oral sex”, then it takes away the element of plausible deniability in a response to the question “did you have sex with that woman/person”. Everyone knows that fellatio is not sex. This precedent was set by a former President of the United States, so it must be on the money.
A bit of a conundrum really.
Voice Endeavour @ #1889 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 8:35 am
Don’t be ridiculous. The viability or otherwise has nothing to do with it. As Keating famously said “Never get between a Premier and a bucket of money”
The Greens will continue to play their part as political subcontractors to the LNP, determined to oppose Labor and angle for their defeat.
VE
Very smart of Andrews and Berejiklian. Sell off your elephants before they turn white.
ratsak @ #1977 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:19 am
Nope. Nope. Nope. Limited News would rather have another Left member of the Labor caucus than a Green. Eg The Daily Telegraph’s support of Albo over the Green in 2016.
Don’t want The Greens getting ideas above their station on the 10% line, do we? 🙂
“Sovereign Risk” only applies in polities where Labor is in power.
Don’t be ridiculous. The viability or otherwise has nothing to do with it. As Keating famously said “Never get between a Premier and a bucket of money”
Doesn’t really matter,five years from now the Chinese will own it.
SK,
The answer to the beggar thy neighbour race to the corporate tax bottom is simply not to participate in it.
Corporate tax is already effectively zero for Australian taxpayer shareholders of Australian companies.
We have no significant difficulty attracting foreign investment because of the profits available in this economy.
The entire corporate tax cuts argument is based on multiple false premises and is only really propagated by an executive class elite that knows they can skim a nice percentage of any money gifted to foreign shareholders as increased bonuses. The entire thing is a sham from the get go.
ratsak
Murdoch attack on Greens is the reverse double mock with twist and pike … or something.
People hate Murdoch press so if Murdoch press attacks Greens in Batman Greens candidate must be good. Vote Green.
You know it makes sense.
Don’t want The Greens getting ideas above their station on the 10% line, do we?
Nor the Nationals on their 5%.
I also doubt that the ‘powers-that-be’ at the Oz particularly care who wins Batman, other than the fact that both sides are attacking each other and it makes them both look bad.
I think The Australian just saw the opportunity. It’s like any internal party leak, someone in the Greens wanted to throw some dirt around and they forwarded the memo to the Australian who thought “hey why not publish this?”.
Late in 2014, details emerged in the Queensland local media of Campbell Newman’s plan for the Adani mine.
He would give the Company a 10 year royalty holiday and fund the required rail line in its entirety.
Clearly this was the level of public subsidy required to make the mine financially viable.
When Newman was booted from office several months later, the mine plan died a natural death.
Adani is a former parrot, has been since at least January 2015 and the only way it could possibly be revived is if a current or future government committed to fund it similarly.
It won’t happen.
Anastacia Palaszczuk has figured this out, Bill Shorten already new it and I suspect that behind the political point scoring, the more intelligent and rational elements inside the Green’s do too.
Re Trog @9:51AM. Maybe Labor could come up with a policy that lists all possible activities that might considered as ‘sex’ and an indication of whether they are allowed between MP’s and staffers or not. Maybe a ‘traffic light’ rating system: red, amber, green.
Steve777 @ #1993 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:34 am
I thought it was 3% in a poll recently? 🙂
The importance of rooftop solar.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/new-solar-focused-energy-retailer-calls-prosumer-investors-69870/
http://reneweconomy.com.au/aemo-points-to-rooftop-solars-critical-role-in-remarkable-heat-event-70187/
Good in theory and can work in practice if you have strong enough democratic institutions.
But when busting (the remnants of?) World System Theory such lofty ideas fall short in the Global South.
It will say a lot about Australias democratic institutions and our position in the Global rat race if we go ahead with these cuts without substantial modification and tightening to corporate tax rules and other regulations.