First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.
The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.
Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.
Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.
The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.
That’s why we need Alex Bhathal!
These ‘allegations’ against Bathal sound mostly trivial and petty. Not sure we should believe The Australian. If you replaced Bathal with Shorten it would read like their daily “Kill Bill” article. They already have it in for Labor and The Greens, lets not encourage them.
Ides
Which actually makes it all the more interesting if the Greens have not followed due process.
If the accusations are petty, then there’s no reason to deal with them properly.
From The OZ today
On the day Trump is reported to be considering tightening gun laws (however slightly) we have this:
“Tasmania’s Liberal government has quietly promised a significant relaxation of post-Port Arthur massacre gun laws, in a contentious policy released to the gun lobby but kept off the party’s website.
The election-eve plan to water down the state’s firearm laws — described as “common sense” by shooters, farmers and the Liberals — was attacked by gun-control campaigners as “reckless” and “a square breach” of the National Firearms Agreement.
It includes: extending the limit on gun licence duration from five years to 10, despite concerns that mental health can change in that time; downgrading of “lesser” breaches of firearm storage laws to the level of infringement notices rather than court summons; and ending mandatory weapon confiscation in such “lesser” cases. The policy would also extend ownership of Category C weapons, including pump-action and rapid-fire shotguns, to a broader range of sporting shooters.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/tasmanian-election-liberal-polleve-plan-to-relax-gun-laws/news-story/8763536d47c8cedfeca336c75b92b6a7
Hmmm. Zanetti crossing the line. Quite surprised that one got through to the printer.
guytaur @ #1882 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 8:14 am
Not necessarily.
Remember, Save Our Albo!’ ?
The Greens weren’t in front in Grayndler. Albo won by a country mile. The Daily Telegraph just wanted to be sure The Greens’ candidate was ‘dead, buried and cremated’.
I believe that The Australian just wants to be sure The Greens’ candidate is properly scrutinised, and that the Labor candidate wins because they have assessed her as the superior candidate on offer. Do you not agree? 🙂
phoenixRed:
On McMaster’s supposed replacement, apparently he has long standing ties to Russian leaders!
https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/people/stephen-e–biegun.html
The interesting thing about that GG’s heavying of Alex the Green is the why now?
Surely the Murdoch desire to keep Labor out of government should have seen them wanting Ged to lose so they can ramp up pressure on Bill.
Then run this stuff against the Greens at their leisure. Murdoch knows the Greens are irrelevant other than as a weapon to weaken Labor.
It would be massively surprising if he decided to not fight too hard against a potential Labor government, but perhaps these morons have destroyed any hope he had that they can be saved?
Day 56 and what are the Greens doing to make substantive differences to Indigenous progress?
The usual. Elsewhere, they are also doing the usual:
1. 18 Greens who presumably know Bhathal a whole lot better than us have made swingeing formal complaints about her behaviour.
2. Bhathal announces wtte that she is as a pure as a Greens.
3. Di Natale rides roughshod over formal Greens processes.
4. Di Natale announces that there is nothing to see, move along folks, move along.
While Labor people on this blog are concentrating on a by election that will not determine government.
Tasmania’s Liberal party is threatening our gun laws.
Internal polling must be dire.
Question for Malcolm Turnbull. Does he stand by Howard’s gun laws or is he going to cave in yet again to the right wing of his party?
So, ‘Fake Guns’ are going to replace ‘Fake News’ as the bogeyman du jour for Donald Trump now?
Voice Endeavour @ #1889 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 8:35 am
Or will Turnbull and his spivs suddenly decide to privatise it?
Tom.
guytaur
Er, you’re the one who raised the subject.
Noah Smith@Noahpinion
1h1 hour ago
Millennials were trending Republican but that has sharply reversed.
Gen X used to be Republican but has flipped.
Boomers are still slightly Democrat.
Only the Silents – the oldest cohort – have become more Republican.
:large
Confessions says: Friday, March 2, 2018 at 8:59 am
phoenixRed:
On McMaster’s supposed replacement, apparently he has long standing ties to Russian leaders!
******************************************************
So – another Trump-Russia go-between messenger to replace Flynn ….
zoomster
No sprocket did. I replied to him.
You decided to jump in. Your choice to do so. However I think the weakening gun laws is more important than if Labor or Greens win a seat that will not decide government.
I think Labor winning government in Tasmania has more implications for the nation as the LNP loses strength in COAG.
Meet the PressVerified account@MeetThePress
4m4 minutes ago
BREAKING: NBC News has learned that Mueller is assembling a case for criminal charges against the Russians who carried out the hacking and leaking of private information as part of Putin’s campaign to meddle in the election and help Trump’s candidacy. #MTPDaily
political_alert: The Prime Minister will hold a bilateral meeting with The Right Honourable @jacindaardern, Prime Minister of New Zealand at 9:15am, Sydney #auspol
Ratsak
Murdoch probably prefers Labor over The Greens.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/mueller-eyes-charges-against-russians-who-stole-spread-democrats-emails-n852291?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma
Will Wikileaks and Assange be in the mix?
Will Mueller call in Mr Beigun for a quiet chat as soon as he is nominated (or approved) as Trump’s new NSA?
Thanks BK
This is a major threat to democracy, initiated by Dutton’s fear of GetUp.
It will make it impossible for Australians to contribute to any politically active group without signing a stat dec saying they are not from overseas.
Effectively blocks all grass-roots political movements, as well as stopping charities from having a say on basic issues that affect their constituencies.
Massively favors big Coalition donors, and is huge threat to the environment, economic equality and political discourse in general.
Using the law to block opposition voices is straight from the standard manifesto of fascist regimes.
If for some reason it gets through the senate, and can’t be blocked now, then Shorten needs to make its reversal part of his election platform.
I find Ken Henrys take on company tax debate astounding.
Firstly
So, in international terms, it is a race to the bottom. Follow it through and he is waving the white flag and advocating a zero company tax rate. Alright – we pretty much have for so many of them anyway.
Secondly
Oh, that is a good one. Corporate social responsibility. He forgets that self-interest is the base law that the IPA folk all kneel to and hum mantras about. And he forgets the endless array of window dressing the corporate world has already hung on corporate social responsibility. Please – no more.
Why does Turnbull tolerate this inefficient and badly behaved Senator? Weakness? Or does she hold something over him?
He sprang to Cash’s defence in direct contradiction of his own ‘moral behaviour’ lecture.
Sorry Lizzie to me that is a rhetorical question,needing no answer.
Having said that, the except from New Politics is excellent and I’ll read the article.
I think the coalition is heavily influenced by the Republicans in the US, and catering almost exclusively to their rusted on base, believing Shorten is not acceptable to the electorate.
Jake Tapper
30 mins ·
The Kushner family business received loans from companies totaling half a billion dollars, amidst Jared Kushner meeting with the heads of those companies while in his official government capacity, the NYT reports.
cnn.it/2oMO6Mz
daretotread,
However, as we have seen, Putin has also been expanding his nuclear arsenal. So maybe it was prudent of the US to do the same?
Russia has invaded countries. And would take them over if it could. It has taken over regions in the countries it invaded. It has expressed a desire to invade more countries and take them over too. That trumps breaking treaties. Btw, which treaties? Also, because of Russia’s actions, the USA installed deterrents to push back at Russia.
Yes, Putin and Trump are on a MAD path. You don’t appear to think this is nuts. You do call it, ‘a game of bluff’. But you also imply that Putin has a right to defend himself with nukes if he is attacked by nukes!
The article that I read quoted an American pentagon official saying they had that issue in hand and it was likely just pre-election braggadoccio from Putin.
Finally, it is good to see that you may be tiring of boosting Trump, and his baggage, because he is the Anti Clinton. 🙂
Boerwar
Why don’t you write something constructive. Instead of wearing out the caps-g on your keyboard, get stuck into the bastards like Dutton and his lap pooch Turnbull who want to strip away democracy in this country.
BUSTED: Kushner’s family business is facing $1.2 billion dollars in debt
Kushner Companies, the family real estate business White House senior adviser Jared Kushner may or may not have relinquished control of when he joined the Trump administration, is facing a $1.2 billion debt payment due in 2019.
The Washington Post on Thursday reported the large debt, and drew connections between it and reported White House meetings between Kushner and investors who later gave Kushner Cos. hundreds of millions of dollars in loans.
This story is developing ……..
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/busted-kushners-family-business-facing-1-2-million-dollars-debt/
Idea,
I’m sure he does. But the bigger picture is to keep the Coalition in power. Labor winning in Batman strengthens Shorten’s position immensely. A Greens win would be a significant blow.
ratsak
A Greens win in Batman is not a significant blow. It just means the Greens would have two seats. Thats it.
The significant blows will be if the Liberals lose some state elections.
Confirming the trend is to the left in all three cases. That is against the LNP right wing policy.
Thats the story if the Greens win. Thats the message if Labor wins in two states.
Another one goes!
guytaur @ #1930 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 9:28 am
Which is enough to keep their coalition partners in power.
Tom.
Tom
IF you are referring to the LNP I don’t get where you are coming from. Green or Labor win in Batman its not a vote change in the HOR.
Assuming that the Greens don’t gift re-election to Turnbull which they are patently trying to do, IMO Shorten COULD stop Adani by using the Commonwealth’s export powers.
There IS a massive sovereign risk involved and sovereign risk matters to the economy.
phoenixRed:
This says it all. How much longer can Kushner survive?
BW
BS. Sovereign risk was dismissed by Daniel Andrews in ripping up contracts. Rightly so they were bad economic contracts.
The Adani contracts are in the same category. Plus what is the point of Sovereignty if you cannot protect your environment and reject a contract after finding out that the company has not fully disclosed information.
See Four Corners report by Stephen Long
Re Bill Shorten’s alleged two-faced position on Adani
I seem to be missing something. I heard Cousins being interviewed on RN. He said Shorten had told him that the ALP in Government would stop the Adani mine IF THAT COULD BE DONE LEGALLY.
Shorten’s apparently two-faced position is that the ALP will not stop the Adani mine from proceeding if it can obtain finance AND complies with all environmental regulation.
Forgive me, but I cannot see the difference between the two positions. AFAIK the only way the Adani mine can be stopped LEGALLY is if the licence to mine is withheld on the basis Adani does not meet the licence conditions. The licence conditions being necessary finance and environmental regulation.
What am I missing?
Trog
It would be excellent if the Greens followed your advice.
ATM more than four out of five Greens political attacks are against Labor.
90% of the remaining one time out of five, the Greens whack Labor while they are whacking the Liberals.
For the Greens to turn around and whinge about unequal whacking adds the insult of gross hypocrisy to the injury of the Greens support for Coalition victories.
Greens by-election campaign posturing.
g
I know that the Greens don’t do economic consequences because they have the magic pudding NMT which means they just print some more money and the economy will be 100% sparkles.
By “legal” I mean of course without breaking a contract (which is illegal).
Ratsak
Greens victory in Batman puts more pressure on Shorten. This includes Adani and leadership stuff (pushing that angle even though Shorten will be leader until he resigns or he loses the next election which is not likely atm). I think News Limited can tolerate another Green if it means more problems for Labor.
What we need is an Aussie Mueller to investigate the alleged Bhathal bullying.
ATM the Deep Greens State appears to be covering something up.
“There IS a massive sovereign risk involved and sovereign risk matters to the economy.”
What sovereign risk? Deterring known environmental bandits from investing the country?
Climate change not a sovereign risk?
guytaur says:
Friday, March 2, 2018 at 8:14 am
…”I have my problems with Di Natale as leader as I outlined when he used defending schools as his reason to oust Senator Rhiannon from the party. That failed. He is a weak leader be in no doubt of my views on that.
The point is the Australian has stated these allegations are not declared to be true by the Australian.
All that does is convince me the Greens must be in front in Batman and the destroy the Greens paper is desperate”…
Such a remarkable combination of incoherence and delusion.
Windhover
Its as you say not contradictory and Sky is pushing an agenda.
That said Daniel Andrews showed what empty rhetoric the Sovereign Risk thing is.
I did not see investors fleeing Victoria as a result of Andrews tearing up that contract.
Its a scare campaign by the right because the truth is contacts have not been met yet. If they had we would have a Green light and we know the Queensland Government has not given a Green light.
The Greens have put Adami firmly on the agenda. Sounds like a decent accomplishment for a party with no influence. (LOL)
Absence
Yeah right
Looks like some sort of tit-for-tat planted story. On the DT dead tree front page blaming Labor!
“Coalition staffer: ‘I did not bonk the boss’
EXCLUSIVE A YOUNG female adviser for the Turnbull government has spoken of her trauma at being at the centre of a Canberra whisper campaign which claims she is having an affair with a minister.”
Article is paywalled but image of the dead tree front page is here:
http://dailytelegraph.digitaleditions.com.au/edition.php?code=NCTELE
guytaur says:
Friday, March 2, 2018 at 9:44 am
…”Absence
Yeah right”…
It pleases me that you concur.