First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.
The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.
Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.
Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.
The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.
@AofE 10:42
Here Endeth The Lessson. Let us pray.
rossmcg @ #1992 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:34 am
People hate Murdoch press so if Murdoch press attacks Greens in Batman Greens candidate must be good. Vote Green.
You know it makes sense.
I don’t know,I think many people on PB give Murdoch too much credit for how much influence he has in our lives,after all, last I heard he had been laid up since new Year with a crook back.If he’s taking Endone and Tramadol he probably doesn’t have much awareness re ruling the world righ now.
Steve777
Good idea.
We had a rating system when I was in primary school, which would probably require updating.
Holding hands — Green
Kissing — Green
—–
—–
etc
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Friday, March 2, 2018 at 10:45 am
…”Here Endeth The Lessson. Let us pray”…
If you feel prayer is required, then go with your God.
A few comments:
The people who could possibly vote Greens are not influenced by Murdoch publications. So it is only if other media pick up what they publish that there is an impact.
Secondly, the relationship between Abbott and Credlin (if you believe, like I do, that there was no sexual element at all) is evidence that it is not the intercourse but the relationship itself (however described) that creates the grief. Bonking bans are bonkers because that is not in essence the problem at a public interest level. The problem is the very high likelihood that such a relationship will lead to other, serious and unacceptable outcomes. Like major staff disaffection and improper intervention in staffing and other matters. All at public financial cost. Whether directly – through the use of public funds to benefit someone – or indirectly – through the failure of the people involved, especially Ministers, to bring their full attention to the job they are being paid huge amounts of money to do.
TPOF says:
Friday, March 2, 2018 at 10:51 am
…”if you believe, like I do, that there was no sexual element at all”…
Why do you believe This?
Jeepers
That Speech by Putin is “crazy brave”
Now I have no idea at all how much exaggeration/bravado is it it but it is clearly INTENDED to scare the pants of the USA.
We must watch to see how it is received.
It looks as if they are publicly putting together things already known to insiders, but this speechis targetting the ordinary population – including those in the USA as well as being a re-election speech
Aha! The perfect antidote to the Bill Shorten is a salty dog rumours. The ‘Tony Abbott has a very high libido’ rumours. 🙂
Grime
If Murdoch has been needing endone for back pain for months, I’d be wondering if it’s from mets to his spine from his prostate cancer.
DTT
Nah. US has had cruise missiles for ages. Its just more MAD.
Reasons why I don’t think that the Tonser was doing the fandango with his CoS:
Credlin
Taste
Abbott
Speaking of company taxes and the bulldust the spivs are trying to sell us. Came across this article which was written a few months before the GFC . The WSJ was pushing the joy of the Laffer curve and the need for corporate tax cuts. The graph they used is truly hilarious.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/news-blog/are-journalists-innumerate-because/
WSJ chart. Check out the line of best fit 😆
What it should look like. Surprise surprise, shows the opposite to be true
Dio
You might have missed it. Murdoch reportedly injured his back in a fall on his boat at Christmas-New Year.
Not a good time to be laid up with the idiot sons in charge. His bid for Sky UK is looking shakier by the day with a new higher offer.
guytaur @ #2007 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:01 am
Er Gutaur
That is a bit out of date. Listen to the speech. It is not about cruise missiles.
It suggests (no idea about the truth) that Russia has much more powerful nukes and that if the US attacks then Russia will have more powerful responses.
It is about restoring MAD
DTT
You are a fool if you ever thought MAD went away.
The only difference today is that Putin has a puppet in the White House.
Steve777 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:42 am Comment #1997
I read a very amusing novel years ago that was about the ‘fixing’ of a referendum on the UK joining the EEC/EU.
Having sex involved a long checklist to be completed by participants each time about what was ‘in’ and what was ‘out’.
😆
SBSsexuality: Secret sex bars and beats: joining the Sisters on a queer history tour, via @chlosarge |
bit.ly/2t6Aktz pic.twitter.com/pXblVyV3S9
The last section is a WARNING. It is bloody scary. No room for misinterpretation. Basically it says if the US launches a little nuke (as per its recent new Defence Paper) Russia will treat it as a full on nuclear attack and will retaliate in full REGARDLESS OF THE CONSEQUENCES..
Hoping and praying no doubt!
DTT
So the Russian have worked out that Trump is mad enough to try.
He will have to impose those sanctions soon.
daretotread. @ #2007 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 11:00 am
Well, you’re half right.
I’m sure they’re petrified. Especially Trump. Quivering in their slippers.
No, we don’t have to. But knock yourself out.
Well, you got there in the end, so I guess you’re not a complete idiot.
daretotread
The hypersonic missile is real,as it the Sarmat icbm . Given their ability to design and build the Shkval torpedo (underwater rocket,370kmh) the intercontinental underwater drone may well be true.
daretotread. @ #2018 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 7:12 am
It’s just a re-statement of the accepted insanity!
The main question is, why did Putin feel the need for this re-statement?
Is it for domestic consumption or does he feel a need to remind Trump of this “reality”?
“”Turnbull bought because they intend to build S2.0 regardless.””
Oh my giddy aunt!, turnbull in charge of building anything after the NBN debacle!!!!!.
“China has already threatened to curb imports of US soybeans in retaliation, while the European Union said it would propose countermeasures within days.”
Get your act together EU.
They should have a contingency plan for any combination of:
US declares [optional qualifier ‘trade’] war with [insert name of country, countries, or just everyone].
China had their retaliation planned the day Trump won the election. Why did the EU not?
Ross
Sounds like a great cover story.
dtt
ten-four on gt’s “cruise missiles”. And the balance of MAD has been ‘moved’ a bit by Putins statement.
citizen @ #2019 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 11:14 am
Why does Ciobo think that will happen!?! Trump has no special affection for Australia, no matter what Turnbull might say about ‘mateship’.
Anyway, it would render Trump’s policy ineffectual if he started to carve out exceptions.
Absence of Empathy @ #1916 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:54 am
No insider reason. Just my own analysis. I only mentioned my view because of the main point of my post that it was the character of the relationship (I think Abbott and Credlin were purely interdependent) not the nature (bonking, snogging or just a ‘meeting of minds’) that is critical. Whatever it is, the fact that judgement, good administration and appropriate use of public power and public funds, almost certainly go out the window, regardless of political stance.
guytaur @ #2012 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:09 am
Guytaur
As a poster who is often sensible I do wish you would cut this nonsense out.
Putin may have initially been more sympathetic to Russia but now he is controlled by Mad Dog and Kelly and McMaster and is no more a Russian puppet than you or Phoenix or Cat.
Think please. Do you really think a Russian puppet would have released that provocative Defence Strategy Paper?
Now Mad did sorta go away for 15 years or so. In the 10 years after the collapse of the USSR, no one was scared of Russia any more and MAD became irrelevant. This sort of lasted until about 10 years ago. According to Putin it was when GWB withdrew form the Anti Ballistoic Missile Treaty (no I am NOT across the detail about when or exaclty what because it is not important) that Russia took to redeveloping its nukes. It would deem that this started on the quiet back in 2002.
However you and I and most of us who followed the news will agree that from about 1991 through till about 2010, no one regarded Russia as a world threat. MAD did not really apply. I guess the Clinton”Reset” button was probably the first indication that the USA was starting to take Russia seriously again, but even so the assumption was that US technology was so far ahead of Russia’s that still MAD did not apply.
Then of course the move into Syria was a statement that Russia did have new and powerful weapons. Syria was used as a bit of a demonstration ground. MAD was no longer irrelevant, although it seemed difficult to shake the over confidence in the USA.
This speech by Putin goes way beyond that and restores MAD to its cold war importance. Again it may all be an elaborate game of bluff, but the question is will the USA military call the bluff?
Trog Sorrenson @ #1999 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:45 am
Still having trouble differentiating news from advertising, eh Trog?
TPOF
I think it had a ‘sexual element’ to it but not that they were actually ‘bonking’.
A battle of wills more like it.
I think Abbott was scared of Credlin.
DTT
MAD did not go away. We had a period where we were more worried Russian might become a failed state and terrorists would get their hands on nukes.
The media just stopped talking about MAD all the time. Its always been there.
As for my puppet comment. Its a warning as Trump is panicking and Putin knows (Good intel) how erratic Trump is
BiGD
Both.
And now for something completely different.
My senses were abused last night during an ad break for ‘The Project’ by the sight of Malcolm the Magnificent disporting himself in bathers around the manly men of ‘Bondi Rescue’, with towel insouciantly draped over his shoulder.
Memo to Malcolm: You looked needy, and tales about your grandfather the Bondi Lifesaver do not reflect positively on you!
DTT
“Now Mad did sorta go away for 15 years or so. In the 10 years after the collapse of the USSR, no one was scared of Russia any more and MAD became irrelevant.”
We’re forking terrified of North Korea. Why would we ever stop being worried by Russia?
MAD never went away. All that happened was that the climate in which it could happen became a little more benign. Russia and the USA could devastate each other many times over regardless of who has the superior weaponry. Any launch of a nuclear weapon by any side will result in all out responses.
There could not be anyone sane in a position of power in the USA who thought that they had the wood on Russia (which thinks itself more resilient to devastation than the USA anyway – see Napoleon and Hitler – for reasons why it would do so) because their nuclear weapons were more modern or deadly.
This is Putin posturing for internal purposes. Nothing more or less.
Barney in Go Dau @ #2020 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:20 am
Barney
Well Putin actually tells us- very end of the speech, He makes it clear that it is in response to the US new doctrine of using “little” nukes as in the recent US Defence Strategy Paper.
So there would I think be the following reasons why Putin made the speech
1. As a response to the US Defence strategy Paper
2. As an election statement for the upcoming Presidential election
3. Because it is a “state of the union” annual address and Presidents as in the USA are expected to give “ra ra we are the greatest” speeches
4. As a warning to the US and NATO militaries
5. To scare the pants of Europeans and yanks just for a bit of fun
6. To boost national morale in a time of economic stringency
7. To reinstate MAD as a means of preserving Russian security.
8. And yes finally perhaps because Russia is genuinely scared that the US plans to attack it with mini nukes andis warning the yanks that if they try it they may lose a city or three.
daretotread. @ #2030 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 7:28 am
So you are now saying that the US is controlling Putin!!!!
🙂 🙂 🙂
And you wonder why you are accused of incoherence? 🙂
CTar1 says: Friday, March 2, 2018 at 11:29 am
the relationship between Abbott and Credlin (if you believe, like I do, that there was no sexual element at all)
I think it had a ‘sexual element’ to it but not that they were actually ‘bonking’.
A battle of wills more like it.
I think Abbott was scared of Credlin.
**********************************************************
Why Alpha Women Need Alpha Men
Potential mates must present an intellectual challenge if they expect to hold an Alpha Woman’s interest for any length of time. She should not be able to eat him alive in a conversation about current events. These men also need to be equally self-assured and self-reliant.
Men who don’t possess a similar inner strength an Alpha Woman has will quickly get walked over and she will easily bore of him. He will lose her respect as a potential mate. If he’s a nice enough guy, he will be reduced to what is known as “the dreaded friend zone.”
https://blackandmarriedwithkids.com/2011/03/why-alpha-women-need-alpha-men/
C@t – Gilderoy is a 3rd generation NBSLSC lifesaver – having done his Bronze Medallion back in the 1970s and then clocking up 10 years patrolling before obtaining his long service thereafter. He personally contributed a bomb to rebuild the excellent club house.
I personally skipped one of my patrols last month because Gilderoy was coming down in tow with Hunt and a media continent and wanted to be seen mixing. I thought I might end up in trouble if I was present so did a make up patrol the following weekend.
That said. Credit where it is due. Now look what you have done. This is twice in two days that otherwise solid PBer’s have made me feel dirty. Yesterday Ratsak had me recommending a vote for the Greens. Today, you have me praising Gilderoy. Oh the shame!
Dio
Would a Murdoch lie to us?
david rowe (@roweafr) Tweeted:
apologies..@FinancialReview #SenateEstimates #whiteboardgate https://t.co/Pjm6GU32Ji https://twitter.com/roweafr/status/969371784272203776?s=17
Early one today from David Rowe
phRD
I think Credlin and Abbott recognised that they had complimentary strengths and weaknesses.
The ‘sizzle’ between them was about who actually got to ‘drive’.
TPOF @ #2033 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:36 am
The whole NK stuff is not about NK but about containing China and Russia. Always was. The US is no more concerned about NK than it is about China but the NK is a useful public excuse. The US and Japan would live to get a military foothold there. Only those who blindly follow USA public consumption propaganda actually thin that NK is a threat or even that it is an evil empire. it is a Russo/China proxy, although recently has been a bit more independent and antsy..
I only partly agree with that. .The 1990s were a disaster for Russia with nukes falling into disrepair and generally the perception that the country was a basket case. Most I think predicted that the USA or UN would eventually take control of the decaying nukes and decommission them.
Well your assumption that there are sane people in the US in positions of power is optimistic or even “crazy brave” People of influence include Mad Dog Mattis, John bloody nutter Bolton, etc. I seriously wonder these days about the sanity of the US military. It was always a bit questionable, relying on inadequate intelligence (eg the Cuban Crisis) and has shown remarkable capacity to lose wars. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq to name those in the post war period. Each demonstrated remarkable lack of judgment, on the ground intelligence and long term thinking about the consequences. Also a major morality deficit.
I have read snippets suggesting that there is a lot of recruitment of fundamentalists into the US forces.
Much too simplistic TPOF. The speech clearly had major sections directly speaking to a US audience. – especially the last 10 minutes. As i posted below there is a list of reasons for the speech including internal electioneering, but the last section made no presence about being a warning to the USA.
Mari @ #2043 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 7:49 am
They should have used a blackboard to cover her entrance.
Blackboards are much more effective at producing that ear-piercing screech.
With whiteboards you only get a bit of a squeak when your marker is running low on ink. 🙂
Putin’s speech simply affirms what we already know – nuclear weapons have almost no offensive value but enormous defensive value.
Putin is adopting an assertive posture, consistent with his military status. He’s using Russian nationalism to strengthen his political grip.
Barney in Go Dau @ #2035 Friday, March 2nd, 2018 – 10:39 am
Huh!
Barney how in the name of dog did you get that interpretation. Jeepers, call me out on the policy/facts/analysis I write, but for goodness sake make a third grade effort to understand it first.
Fairly obviously I was saying that Trump is not Russian friendly and that even if he had been once that was now fully over ridden by his military advisors. This is so bloody obvious Barney that if you get it so wrong again I will confine you to the idiots section and no longer bother to respond.
In other words Barney, anything that you or i thought might have applied in November 2016, is now outdated and irrelevant. Trump as you should know delegated responsibility for military tactics etc. Had he retained his initial set of advisors eg Flynn, Bannon etc there MIGHT have been a change of policy, but that is long since a thing of the past.
Keep current please before launching attacks on me.
So as far as I am concerned I use the term USA to refer to foreign affairs and military matters within the USA, making the assumption that Trump has not the skill set, nor advisors capable of contributing. There may be some areas where Trump as POTUS still has a significant role, but by and large he should just stay on the golf course. He may still have a role (largely negative) in the China and Iran spheres but i suspect it is minimal.
Andrew_Earlwood,
My humblest apologies at having compelled you to come out and defend Malcolm!
However, as an Alpha Female, all I can add is ‘Meh!’ 🙂
Putin’s speech is further justification- if any were needed – for the expansion and consolidation of NATO. Hi