ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 37
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  1. Asha Leu @ #92 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 5:18 pm

    C@t:

    I’m not saying you don’t provide evidence to back up your claims, or that you don’t try to thoroughly argue your case. Simply that you are much too quick to read insults (towards yourself or to do the Labor party) into what is often just somebody refuting something you have said, and to turn what could have been a fairly polite discussion into something much more negative.

    (I’ll note that I’m not including what I wrote above in that category. That was rather more insulting than good-natured.)

    I’m sorry, but it’s hard for a leopard to change it’s spots. 🙂

  2. briefly

    In any case, this has nothing to do with the trafficking of horror/punishment/revenge/shame by the LNP and the Gs with respect to asylum seekers. Conspicuous cruelty suits them both.

    More fucking bullshit.
    The whole asylum seeker situation has been a big net negative for the Greens – if you want to apply a simple political calculus.
    The problem is that most of Australia couldn’t give a rip about the asylum seekers and have well and truly swallowed the John Howard Kool Aid. This might suit the Coalition, but never the Greens.
    If the Greens could just focus on progressive environmental and economic issues, they’d be in a much better position in the polls.

  3. Edwina StJohn says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 5:53 pm

    If the Gs hang on long enough to accumulate 4-5-6 House seats they will inevitably be lured into deals with the LNP and eventually subsumed by them. Labor will have nothing to do with them.

  6. Confessions @ #142 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 5:51 pm

    Victorian Labor’s research shows that inner city Greens are largely insular snobs, who don’t know any working class people personally and tend to regard them as anti progressive yobs

    Exhibit A: was it Di Natale or Bandt who was exploiting and ripping off his au pair?

    Exploitation: Domino’s casuals exploited by Labors SDA and management.

  7. zoomster

    The survey you have quoted explains some of the weird (to me) decisions the city Greens make.
    However, I think that there are many true Greens around the country, which gives them their support.

  9. BK
    I did feel a bit norty with that one. They must be strong hands, but. Fancy undoing a wheel nut by brute force without any leverage!

  12. poroti

    Re “Nuclear dumps” in SA . Didn’t Hawkie spruik that a while back ?

    Don’t know about Hawkie, but Jay Weatherill stuck his fingers in that pie a little while ago. Pulled them out pretty quick.
    Now he has better alternatives to generate economic growth.

  13. Confessions @ #141 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 5:51 pm

    Victorian Labor’s research shows that inner city Greens are largely insular snobs, who don’t know any working class people personally and tend to regard them as anti progressive yobs

    Exhibit A: was it Di Natale or Bandt who was exploiting and ripping off his au pair?

    Exhibit A alright!

    The Greens continue to stake out the electoral ground in affluent middle class areas. Most of the seats the party is targeting are those in which the working class continues to be pushed out by gentrification – Batman and Wills in Victoria and Grayndler in New South Wales, for example. But there is also Higgins in Victoria, a Liberal stronghold taking in some of the wealthiest suburbs in Melbourne, and Richmond in NSW, home to rich retirees on the north coast.

    Melbourne, the only lower house seat held by the party, is now solidly Green. It is one of the most affluent electorates in Victoria. More than 40 percent of residents are professionals – double the national average – and a further 14 percent are managers. The proportion of trade workers and labourers is half the national average.

    https://redflag.org.au/node/5356

  14. I do hope that Labor runs three or four Royal Commissions starting from around mid-2019.

    So many TORs to choose from!

    Such fun for the MSM!

  16. Trog Sorrenson says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 5:56 pm
    briefly

    In any case, this has nothing to do with the trafficking of horror/punishment/revenge/shame by the LNP and the Gs with respect to asylum seekers. Conspicuous cruelty suits them both.

    More fucking bullshit.

    The whole asylum seeker situation has been a big net negative for the Greens – if you want to apply a simple political calculus. The problem is that most of Australia couldn’t give a rip about the asylum seekers and have well and truly swallowed the John Howard Kool Aid. This might suit the Coalition, but never the Greens.

    If the Greens could just focus on progressive environmental and economic issues, they’d be in a much better position in the polls.

    If this were true, the Gs would not campaign on asylum-seekers. But, considering this is a staple theme for the Gs, we are entitled to suppose this is because they have chosen it. The Gs have always adopted a pure-decoy stance. No-one imposed this on them. The politics of the issue are difficult….no doubt at all….but the Gs have no-one to blame but themselves for trying to exploit these issues…

  18. Trog
    You assume that the Greens are in politics to win government.
    After a quarter of a century of losing, you should be clear in your mind about one thing: The Greens are intent on losing.

  21. Boerwar,

    ‘There is no need to read anything.’

    You do have fun on PB, don’t you.

    The role of all-round provocateur sits well with you.

    I anticipate you advocating for the Informal Party in the near future.

  22. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 5:55 pm
    I notice that the Greens still have their National Conference Resolution calling for Aung Sun Suu Kyi to be freed.
    Should that be changed to shoving her back in jail for aiding and abetting the Rohingya genocide?

    Well said, B.

  23. Peg
    Unicorn. Your lot are wealthy and have no need for the Greens to win. They can afford pay AND play politics. Labor supporters do not have this luxury.

  24. Trog

    This is from 2014 but I am sure he was pushing it about 2006 . Seem to remember a China link as well. Was up the NT at the time and Muckaty Station was a hot item.

    Bob Hawke: nuclear waste storage could end Indigenous disadvantage

    Former prime minister says Northern Territory leader Adam Giles supports idea, despite rejection of Muckaty dump plan

    In June, traditional Indigenous owners in Muckaty Station, north of Tennant Creek, triumphed in a seven-year battle to stop domestic nuclear waste being dumped on their land.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/03/bob-hawke-nuclear-waste-storage-could-end-indigenous-disadvantage

  26. Confessions/BW:

    I have to agree that the available challengers arn’t stellar at the moment. Ludlum and Waters did always strike me as the the most viable candidates. As for the rest, SHY would be hopeless, Rhiannon’s replacement is too new, Steele-John too new and way too young, Sierwert’s probably too old and simply not really suited, and Whish-Wilson’s views on penalty rates would make him anathemic to parts of the base (many of whom are more pro-worker and pro-union than some here would have you believe), and be a dream come true for Labor. Bartlett could be pretty effective, I reckon.

    But in another term or two, the make-up if the Greebs party room could be pretty different. Ludlum and Waters will most likely be back in parliament, maybe Simm too, and the newbies (possibly including Bhathal) will have some more experience under their belts.

    People sometimes question why the Greens go so hard for the few house seats they can currently win, and the truth is its not just about bragging rights and possible BoP leverage. Its also about increasing the size of their parliamentary caucus, partly to avoid situations like the one they are presently in.

  29. Confessions
    “Yep it was Di Natale who exploited his au pair ”
    Who knows.
    If I had a family from overseas staying with me, loaned them my car, and free board in return for doing the dishes, I’d not expect to pay them either.

  31. Oh, I forgot all about McKim. Actually, he wouldn’t be bad at all either, and he has ministerial experience to boot. He does probably carry a bit of baggage from the Tas Labor/Green government, though, and the party might be a bit ambivalent of electing yet another Tasmanian as leader.

  35. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/25/labor-will-not-support-donations-law-that-punishes-charities-says-shorten

    The Labor leader Bill Shorten has toughened his language on the Turnbull government’s proposed ban on foreign donations and other electoral law changes, declaring he will not support charities and not-for-profits being silenced.

    Shorten’s remarks on Sunday follow a decision by the activist group GetUp to target the ALP in a new campaign urging members to lobby federal parliamentarians against the proposed laws.

    GetUp described the call to action on the donations and electoral law bill, which it launched last Monday, as the “biggest week-long campaign” in its history.

  37. Asha:

    Personally there is something about McKim that doesn’t sit well with me either, but he’d be a more authentic Greens leader than Whish Wilson or SHY.

  39. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 6:15 pm
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/25/labor-will-not-support-donations-law-that-punishes-charities-says-shorten

    The Labor leader Bill Shorten has toughened his language on the Turnbull government’s proposed ban on foreign donations and other electoral law changes, declaring he will not support charities and not-for-profits being silenced….

    GetUp [might well have] described the call to action on the donations and electoral law bill, which it launched last Monday, as the “biggest week-long yawn” in its history.

  41. Trog Sorrenson @ #182 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 3:12 pm

    Confessions
    “Yep it was Di Natale who exploited his au pair ”
    Who knows.
    If I had a family from overseas staying with me, loaned them my car, and free board in return for doing the dishes, I’d not expect to pay them either.

    You or I could get away with it. You’re the leader of a political party trying to claim it understands how working people get ripped off by corporations and the wealthy, it’s a very poor look. And it goes to the poor judgement myself and others have often accused Di Natale of having.

  42. Confessions says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 6:16 pm
    Asha:

    Personally there is something about McKim that doesn’t sit well with me either

    Rex D would be pleased. McKim really is a “trickle down” exponent.

  44. Was it his tour and exposure of the Turnbull/Shorten facility on Manus that made you uneasy ?

    No really. Being a Greens MP I’d expect him to engage in meaningless stunts for media attention.

  45. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/02/25/reachtel-54-46-labor-2/comment-page-4/#comment-2745197

    The Press Council considered a complaint about an article in The Age on 19 May 2016 headed “Election 2016: Greens leader Richard Di Natale fails to declare home, pays au pairs low wage” online and in print the next day, headed “Greens leader fails to declare family farm”. The article appeared shortly after a federal election had been called, in the early stages of the campaign.

    :::::
    In the circumstances, the Council concludes that the publication failed to take reasonable steps to ensure the article was accurate and not misleading, and was fair and balanced. Accordingly, General Principles 1 and 3 were breached in these respects.

  47. The Council considers that an au pair role involves living in the family home – often almost as part of the family – doing work of a domestic nature with a significant amount of flexibility and informality. The Council considers it is likely many such roles may not involve keeping of careful records or bear comparison to the standard 40-hour working arrangements in less domestic roles.

    Based on the available material, the Council concludes that before the article appeared, the Senator told the publication that the au pairs worked 25 hours per week, he had made the employment arrangements in accordance with employment advice he received, and offered to provide documents relating to that advice to the publication. Although it took five days for the publication’s repeated requests for documents to be met and then only partially, at the time the article was published the publication had no evidence to contradict the initial information provided by the Senator’s office. At the time of publication, there was no reasonable basis for the publication to imply the au pairs may have worked a 40-hour week and on this basis, may have been paid “as little as $150 a week after tax”. The publication could also have contacted the au pairs to establish the nature of the employment arrangement but did not attempt to do so.

  49. pegasus

    Yes, I said there was nothing illegal about it. It doesn’t mean that it looked good.

    It appears there was nothing illegal with Sam Dastyari’s actions. There may be nothing illegal about anything that Joyce has done.

    Politics is about optics, not about the letter of the law.

  50. The Greens are a political party but not necessarily environmentalists, and I think that their title is deceptive. (I also shudder whenever I read “a Greens”. Very unfortunate.)

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