ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. GG

    I thought about asking you but decided not to, so appreciate your response..

    My mail is that she has been slotted to run for the new seat that is being created in the Western suburbs of Melbourne. However, this is not guaranteed because of the changes in factional alignments that is creating a disturbance in the force in the Victorian ALP. She might be using the possibility of running for lord mayor as leverage to get pre-selection and not causing a by-election.

    That is exactly the scenario I have been privately speculating on.

  4. Laurence TribeVerified account@tribelaw
    9h9 hours ago
    More
    The @RepAdamSchiff memo, just released with DOJ & POTUS approval, shows that the surveillance of Carter Page was properly authorized LONG BEFORE the Steele dossier ever entered the picture. That blows the GOP case out of the water.

    I hope the Democrats hammer this point. Nunes lied his ass off and that alone should be the end of his chairing the House intel committee.

  5. briefly:

    ohhhh, Labor enjoys criticism, make no mistake. Every time the Gs attack Labor thy are declaring to the electorate that Labor do not equal the Greens. This is a way of campaigning for Labor. I welcome it.

    I’m confused. Here I was thinking that every time the Greens “attack” Labor (as in, criticise the latter’s position on something… obviously just for political gain, they couldn’t possibly believe in anything they are saying), they make it harder for Labor to win elections, not easier. I mean, isn’t that the whole reason a bunch of secret conservatives decided to devote their entire lives and careers to pretending to be hard-core lefties?

    I take it you disagrew with Boerwar, then?

    One wonders why you bother expending so much energy writing about the evils of the “G’s” when their very presence is making life easier for Labor.

    I guess it makes about as much sense as the Greens all actually being both closet conservatives and communists!

  6. Boerwar

    They are nimbies, wealthy, mobile and have little or no real understanding of how poorer workers outside the knowledge economy struggle.

    Logically equivalent to claiming all Labor voters are members of the CFMEU.

    They are the analogues of the Russian revolutionaries who went to live and work with the peasants in order to raise their consciousness: not a fucking clue about reality.

    I’d say that the issues of climate change, and meeting the economic challenges of disruption in society, including inequality, the energy transformation, and its opportunities, are pretty well steeped in reality.

  7. The Gs profiteer at the expense of asylum-seekers. There’s no doubt about that. They collect political rent whenever the issue flares. The worst thing that could happen to the Gs would be the resolution of this issue…which is why they made common cause with Abbott to frustrate Gillard’s Malaysia Solution.

    Hypocrisy is tinted Green.

  8. GG, but I do have to ask how are you going with changing your conscience? Has the ALP offered you a conversion therapist to help?

  11. asha, I have never suggested the Gs are Communists, whether closeted or not. They are a bourgeois sect that include some unscrupulous con artists who play with the Pop-Right.

    It is worth drawing attention to the ways in which the Gs and the LNP and the other anti-Labor voices deploy the same tactics.

  12. The Greens have changed since Gillard’s time, and these changes make it very unlikely Labor would form government with them.

    Very early in his time as leader, di Natale went behind the backs of not only the ALP but the crossbenchers, who were – with supposedly the Greens’ full support – engaged in negotiations with the government on a particular piece of legislation.

    Without notifying his erstwhile allies, di Natale did his own deal with the government.

    Clever and tricky short term politics, but it established very early that he was not to be trusted.

  14. briefly

    The Gs profiteer at the expense of asylum-seekers. There’s no doubt about that. They collect political rent whenever the issue flares.

    You could get a media liaison job with the NRA, they appreciate broad-brushstroke bullshit statements.
    To paraphrase: “The mainstream media love massacres…enhances their ratings”.

  18. Trog Sorrenson @ #106 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 5:32 pm

    I’d say that the issues of climate change, and meeting the economic challenges of disruption in society, including inequality, the energy transformation, and its opportunities, are pretty well steeped in reality.

    Have the Greens updated their Climate Change and energy policy from the one drafted in the 1980’s yet?

  19. briefly @ #107 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 5:32 pm

    The Gs profiteer at the expense of asylum-seekers. There’s no doubt about that. They collect political rent whenever the issue flares. The worst thing that could happen to the Gs would be the resolution of this issue…which is why they made common cause with Abbott to frustrate Gillard’s Malaysia Solution.

    Hypocrisy is tinted Green.

    The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.

  20. briefly

    Victorian Labor’s research shows that inner city Greens are largely insular snobs, who don’t know any working class people personally and tend to regard them as anti progressive yobs. They are also apparently concerned that these yobs ruin a neighbourhood and bring down property prices.

  23. P1

    ‘Have the Greens updated their Climate Change and energy policy from the one drafted in the 1980’s yet?’

    This has always mystified me. You’d think a progressive party would have policies in a constant state of flux, changing as the landscape changes. But Green policies seem far more set in concrete than those of other parties, and moreover they seem to be proud of it.

  24. You know of what i speak GG. So sad that you can’t speak your truths freely anymore.

    I guess for political advancement or the chance of it some people are prepared to sacrifice much.

  26. It’s all very well to say that Joyce is out of the way and his effect on the polls will wash out – but we still have two weeks of Senate Estimates in front of us.
    Anything could happen there!

  28. https://abix.com.au/2017/11/22/green-voters-snobs-and-closed-to-labor/

    Original article by Greg Brown
    The Australian – Page: 7 : 21-Nov-17

    The Australian Labor Party surveyed just over 50 Greens voters in inner Melbourne for a period of six months, and has come to the conclusion that around 70 per cent of them are not worth targeting for votes. The ALP considers this group, which it has dubbed “Teal Greens”, to be rich and anti-union, and to have a disdainful view of people who live in Melbourne’s outer suburbs. It has decided to concentrate on the remaining 30 per cent of inner city Greens voters, which it has dubbed “Red Greens”. Greens MP Adam Bandt says the ALP’s assertions about its inner city supporters are nothing more than “fairy tales”

  29. zoomster @ #120 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 5:40 pm

    briefly

    Victorian Labor’s research shows that inner city Greens are largely insular snobs, who don’t know any working class people personally and tend to regard them as anti progressive yobs. They are also apparently concerned that these yobs ruin a neighbourhood and bring down property prices.

    They also don’t give a flying F about battling workers and their families in remote and rural areas that depend on mining and agriculture to survive.

  32. Trog Sorrenson says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 5:37 pm
    briefly

    The Gs profiteer at the expense of asylum-seekers. There’s no doubt about that. They collect political rent whenever the issue flares.
    You could get a media liaison job with the NRA, they appreciate broad-brushstroke bullshit statements.
    To paraphrase: “The mainstream media love massacres…enhances their ratings”.

    This inverts the reality. The NRA traffic fear/protection. So when there is a mass shooting, gun sales have tended to rise. Rather than enhancing the media’s sales, killings have enhanced the financial results of NRA-affiliated manufacturers and dealers. This may have been changed by the Florida killings….but it is too early to tell.

    In any case, this has nothing to do with the trafficking of horror/punishment/revenge/shame by the LNP and the Gs with respect to asylum seekers. Conspicuous cruelty suits them both.

  33. GG

    Even worse, they don’t give a flying f about the homeless and poor. A recent proposal to provide public housing was knocked back because of Green pressure on the relevant local council. (It’d ruin property values if the riffraff moved in).

  35. Trog
    The CFMEU and the Labor movement more generally are a core part of Labor’s history, ethos, and reason for being.
    I am not sure why you want to disown wealthy knowledge industry workers. They are core Greens and they are concentrated in the inner burbs.

    It matters to the workers if Labor wins. It matters to their wages. It matters to their IR system. It matters to their access to health and education services. It matters to their public transport.

    None of that matters to the knowledge industry wealthy. They can buy anything they want or need. They have their world by the balls. In economic terms it simply does not matter to them personally if the Greens lose forever.

  37. zoomster says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 5:40 pm
    briefly

    Victorian Labor’s research shows that inner city Greens are largely insular snobs, who don’t know any working class people personally and tend to regard them as anti progressive yobs. They are also apparently concerned that these yobs ruin a neighbourhood and bring down property prices.

    They certainly vote with their feet and their wallets….and accumulate in the high-capital centres of the big cities.

  38. zoomster @ #123 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 5:42 pm

    This has always mystified me. You’d think a progressive party would have policies in a constant state of flux, changing as the landscape changes. But Green policies seem far more set in concrete than those of other parties, and moreover they seem to be proud of it.

    You can only assume that actual “policy” doesn’t form a significant part of the Green’s attraction.

  39. Actually, I do have to admit I’m not an enormous fan of Di Natale myself, and I was mildly mystified when he was elected leader in the first place. He’s since made more than a few calls that have strike me as, well, misjudged, to say the least. I don’t think he’s the cynical oppurtunist some here seem to paint him as, but I’m not sure he’s really got the judgement and political nous required of a party leader either.

    That said, I think the Greens probably need to stick with him for the time being, at least until some time after the next election, lest they look like they have a revolving door of leaders, a’la the dying days of the Democrats

  42. Victorian Labor’s research shows that inner city Greens are largely insular snobs, who don’t know any working class people personally and tend to regard them as anti progressive yobs

    Exhibit A: was it Di Natale or Bandt who was exploiting and ripping off his au pair?

  44. poroti says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 5:37 pm
    briefly

    My position is K’Fluck Blair and all who sail on his “Cool Britannia” ship.

    This might be so. But it is totally irrelevant to the question of whether or not to leave the EU.

  45. Asha
    The Greens have the same problem as the Nationals. The leadership cupboard is bare. The potential alternative leaders were kicked out because they could not even be bothered to check their dual nationality status.
    In leadership terms what is left is poverty stricken.

  46. ESJ you really need to stop equating your opinions with the entire electorate. Just because you have no enthusiasm for Shorten, and the media has to project no enthusiasm for Shorten, doesn’t mean the entire universe has none.

  48. Such visceral hatred of the Greens. You lot will be unhinged if Bhathal gets up in Batman.

    Labor’s lost the inner cities, Plibersek is the current and Last Labor MP for Sydney ever as is Albo in Grayndler.

    Once the Greens get to 5-6 seats in the HofR Labor majority government is going to be highly unlikely. From their moving to proportional representation becomes a very realistic outcome.

    I for one will welcome it comrades!

    Its a wonderful thing to watch and behold because it presages the end of the rotten 2 party system in this country.

  49. Asha:

    Who would be the Greens leader if Di Natale was rolled?

    Whish-Wilson might be Di Natale’s choice, but he’s a former Lib so likely wouldn’t be acceptable to the Rhiannons and SHYs in the party.

  50. I notice that the Greens still have their National Conference Resolution calling for Aung Sun Suu Kyi to be freed.
    Should that be changed to shoving her back in jail for aiding and abetting the Rohingya genocide?

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