ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 37
1 … 4 5 6 … 37

  2. Actually – wealth and the lack of need for ‘scraping by’ like a large chunk of the electorate is precisely why many Green’s adherents can afford to support pie-in-the-sky and impractical policies (or at least demand that policies are done “RIGHT NOW”).

    For the bigger part of the electorate – they do not have the luxury of not using plastic bags at the shops, or getting rid of all coal mines this instant as they would never be able to afford electricity. Or electric cars. Or rooftop solar.

  3. Yeah, the au pair stuff never sat right with me, particularly since it come out right when Di Natale was campaigning heavily on fighting for penalty rates. I was critical of him for it at the time, and it still strikes me as very poor judgement on his part. Not illegal, no, but more than a bit morally iffy.

  5. Labor partisans pile on DiNatale for stiffing his au pairs but hardly a squeak about the Labors SDA for stiffing all their casuals.

  6. jenauthor

    Yes, I think about this when campaigns get ramped up – for example, having improved conditions for battery hens, animal liberationists then start lobbying for more and more restrictions on egg production.

    All very well for those who can afford to pay twice the price for eggs, but the kid living below the poverty line whose single parent can no longer afford to buy eggs at all gets forgotten.

  7. Will Joyce overcome the temptation the slip the political stiletto between Turnbull’s ribs?

    If you want an indication of the visceral hatred, Joyce did not bother letting Turnbull know that his Deputy Prime Minister was quitting. Turnbull learned of it by way of social media.

  9. z

    I realise it’s difficult for you to grasp it’s not about you.

    ———————-
    Confessions

    “Yep it was Di Natale who exploited his au pair ”

    The au pair beat-up is periodically brought up with great gusto on PB by some Laborites desperate for an irrelevant look-over there.

  11. Rex

    Oh, so it’s OK for a Green to behave poorly because other people in other parties – or even vaguely connected with them – also behave poorly.

    Great set of values, there.

  12. pegasus

    In this case, it was clear that Trog hadn’t heard the story. I was careful to point out that di Natale did not behave illegally.

    Sometimes I wonder why I bother trying to be even handed about these things…certainly don’t get any credit for it when I do!

  20. Rex Douglas @ #208 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 6:42 pm

    lizzie @ #200 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 6:33 pm

    The Greens are a political party but not necessarily environmentalists, and I think that their title is deceptive. (I also shudder whenever I read “a Greens”. Very unfortunate.)

    They’re all about a sustainable clean environment for all.

    To have any credible claim to be “sustainable”, you have to have a population policy. What is the Greens?

  21. Being Green is the easiest thing in the world.

    1. Set your position in relation to whatever the ALP’s current policy is.
    2. Smear Labor’s policies as not being pure enough and Lib-lite.
    3. Whenever Labor does something that could in anyway be spun as approaching the Greens latest position claim credit, claim it could never have happened without them, smear Labor as not going nearly far enough anyway and just more Lib-lite.
    4. Enjoy the freedom to never have to bother with the hard work of building a political majority in order to actually implement a damn thing.
    5. Revel in the bliss of never having to be responsible for such implementation nor the natural negative consequences of any change that faces any sort of political opposition.

    Green politics has become little more than a salve for a section of an educated middle class looking to alleviate the guilt of their petite bourgeois privilege as inner urban beneficiaries of an expanding knowledge economy, without having to soil themselves even acknowledging that the losers of the economic transformation they have benefited from don’t share their enthusiasms let alone looking to build strong and lasting alliances with them.

    Much easier to feel all self righteous and slag off the unwoke masses as bogans, racists, and idiots.

    As a political strategy for building a small passionate following it is of course completely rational and sensible. As strategy for gifting power to the right in order to get them to go so far that it provokes the masses to rise up in glorious revolution, well it’s pretty good at the first part…

    As a strategy to achieve political power in a democracy with a broad range of views largely antithetical to theirs and structural advantages to the forces of reaction and the status quo it is of course completely shit.

    But as the aim isn’t to achieve anything more than a self sustaining niche, the compromises, coalition building and promoting of the only feasible vehicle to the political power required for implementation of even a part of what they claim to stand for would be self defeating.

    Labor understands this. The Greens will never be trusted by Labor for the simple realpolitik that the Greens entire strategy revolves around painting the ALP as inadequate as a means to capture a portion of the Labor vote.

    A successful ALP is the greatest threat to the Greens vote, so the Greens’ incentive entirely revolves around creating the impression of, if not the substance of Labor failure.

  22. The question is not really whether Di Natale was just this side or just that side of his bedrock employer requirements.
    The question is why a wealthy land-owning doctor with an income more than three times the average income (Senate wage alone) would feel inclined to pay his au pairs whatever he judged he could get away with, legally speaking.

  23. Dio,

    Thanks for the newer article. Yes, same conclusion Possum came to in his 2010 analysis.

    To a large extent that basic pattern still holds, but class structures are evolving to the point where many of the relationships we used to see are no longer as predictive as they once were.

  24. Lᴏʀᴅ Wᴇɴᴛᴡᴏʀᴛʜ‏ @LordofWentworth · 4h4 hours ago

    Weasel word of the day
    Democracy
    1/ 75% of Aussies are not Catholics
    2/ 95% of Aussies did not vote Nationals
    3/ 50% of Aussies are women
    4/ 77% of Aussies believe in climate science
    5/ 62% of Aussies voted yes
    °°°°°°°°
    A male, Catholic, climate change denying bigot is to be DPM

  25. The SYRIZANs are doing their very own Greens thing ATM.

    They are engaged in a full bottle war of words about how dare the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Macedonians use the word ‘Macedonia’ as if they have the right call themselves what they bloody well want.

    The Greeks kept Turkey out of the EU.

    They are threatening to block the Macedonians if they persist in calling themselves Macedonians and their country Macedonia.

  26. ratsak @ #221 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 6:50 pm

    Being Green is the easiest thing in the world.

    1. Set your position in relation to whatever the ALP’s current policy is.
    2. Smear Labor’s policies as not being pure enough and Lib-lite.
    3. Whenever Labor does something that could in anyway be spun as approaching the Greens latest position claim credit, claim it could never have happened without them, smear Labor as not going nearly far enough anyway and just more Lib-lite.
    4. Enjoy the freedom to never have to bother with the hard work of building a political majority in order to actually implement a damn thing.
    5. Revel in the bliss of never having to be responsible for such implementation nor the natural negative consequences of any change that faces any sort of political opposition.

    Green politics has become little more than a salve for a section of an educated middle class looking to alleviate the guilt of their petite bourgeois privilege as inner urban beneficiaries of an expanding knowledge economy, without having to soil themselves even acknowledging that the losers of the economic transformation they have benefited from don’t share their enthusiasms let alone looking to build strong and lasting alliances with them.

    Much easier to feel all self righteous and slag off the unwoke masses as bogans, racists, and idiots.

    As a political strategy for building a small passionate following it is of course completely rational and sensible. As strategy for gifting power to the right in order to get them to go so far that it provokes the masses to rise up in glorious revolution, well it’s pretty good at the first part…

    As a strategy to achieve political power in a democracy with a broad range of views largely antithetical to theirs and structural advantages to the forces of reaction and the status quo it is of course completely shit.

    But as the aim isn’t to achieve anything more than a self sustaining niche, the compromises, coalition building and promoting of the only feasible vehicle to the political power required for implementation of even a part of what they claim to stand for would be self defeating.

    Labor understands this. The Greens will never be trusted by Labor for the simple realpolitik that the Greens entire strategy revolves around painting the ALP as inadequate as a means to capture a portion of the Labor vote.

    A successful ALP is the greatest threat to the Greens vote, so the Greens’ incentive entirely revolves around creating the impression of, if not the substance of Labor failure.

    Rather, the minor parties are place for those dis-satisfied with the political duopoly which has delivered widening inequality and environmental damage.

  27. Dio

    “Aren’t tradies normally members of unions, or do most work as contractors?”

    Most of them are what were Howards battlers, the aspirationals…. they are contractors, sub-contractors…..don’t belong to unions.

  28. Ratsak: A successful ALP is the greatest threat to the Greens vote, so the Greens’ incentive entirely revolves around creating the impression of, if not the substance of Labor failure.

    Peg understands this fully.

  29. RD

    Rather, the minor parties are place for those dis-satisfied with the political duopoly which has delivered widening inequality and environmental damage.

    That pretty much sums it up for me.

  31. The Macedonians desperately need to get into the EU if they are to have an economic future.

    So the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonians have taken ‘Alexander’ off the name of their main airport and off their main highway, hoping desperately to appease the SYRIZANs so that the latter will not block the entry of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia into the EU.

  32. Diogenes

    They were/are , the union reps were full on ‘Hanson’. The racism in the likes of the CFEMU/ETU etc is/was Labor’s “dirty little secret” .

  33. VP

    lol Another Laborite who professes to know me and what I think.

    You need to find another occupation from mind-reader, as you fail spectacularly and would struggle to make a living if you don’t.

  34. Boerwar @ #222 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 6:50 pm

    The question is not really whether Di Natale was just this side or just that side of his bedrock employer requirements.
    The question is why a wealthy land-owning doctor with an income more than three times the average income (Senate wage alone) would feel inclined to pay his au pairs whatever he judged he could get away with, legally speaking.

    The question is why would the Labor party, purporting to be all about unions/job/wages, accept sponsorship and representation from a union that colludes with management to drive down workers wage rates ?

  38. Pegasus

    The ‘Tradies’ used to be full on unionists but changes made under Hawke+Keating saw them flood into being subbies etc. Voila the “Grasperationals” and my goodness did they screw over their workers at a rate way higher than the big companies.

  40. The entire ANU campus is to be closed tomorrow due to the impact of today’s floods.

    This means at over 20,000 students will be affected directly by the flood.

    For those with a geographical bent, Sullivan’s Creek flows south in that area, bisecting the ANU, and then debouches into Lake Burley Griffin on the southern boundary of the ANU. That image of a flooded truck was in one of the ANU’s major construction sites. I noted that at least half of one of the ANU’s main playing fields was under water this morning.

    Knowing the course of the creek in that area very well, it seems to me quite likely that the ANU built environment has created a serious bottleneck across the Sullivan’s Creek floodplain. Two of the major construction sites directly abut Sullivan’s Creeks. Join the dots.

    FWIW, Monday is the day for one of our three appointed sessions at the ANU gym.

  42. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-25/save-the-tarkine-rally-in-hobart/9482946

    More than 1,000 people marched through the city streets, meeting at Parliament Lawns to call for “permanent protection” of the Tarkine, a region which covers over 100,000 hectares, taking in the Arthur-Pieman Conservation area on the rugged west coast.

    :::::
    On the same day veteran environmental activist Bob Brown addressed the Hobart marchers condemning the Liberal and Labor policies that “threaten to turn this special place into a wasteland”, the Liberal candidate for Braddon Adam Brooks issued a media release reaffirming “Only the Liberals would stop a Tarkine National Park”.

    ::
    However Labor leader Rebecca White said her party does not support a Tarkine national park.

    “We’ve state that very clearly,” Ms White said, adding the party was waiting on the decision of Federal Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg as to whether the reopening of vehicle tracks would threaten Aboriginal heritage sites.

  43. Pegasus

    It was when I realised Howard had Labor forked. The shite he espoused was what I heard on work sites all over, from workers and union reps. Shoutback radio crud.

  44. If I were the Macedonians I would change the name of the country to whatever the SYRIZANS want.

    Then, as soon as they are safely in the EU and in NATO, change the name of the country to ‘Macedonia!’ and call the capital of Macedonia ‘Alexander’.

    Heh heh.

  46. Player One @ #237 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 7:06 pm

    Player One @ #220 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 6:49 pm

    To have any credible claim to be “sustainable”, you have to have a population policy. What is the Greens?

    So. No answer from Rex. What a surprise.

    Any of the other Greens here like to have a go? What do the Greens believe is the “sustainable” population for Australia?

    Sorry P1

    Here you go – “Environmental impact is not determined by population numbers alone, but by the way that people live” – https://greens.org.au/policies/population

  48. Pegasus @ #208 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 6:42 pm

    z

    I realise it’s difficult for you to grasp it’s not about you.

    ———————-
    Confessions

    “Yep it was Di Natale who exploited his au pair ”

    The au pair beat-up is periodically brought up with great gusto on PB by some Laborites desperate for an irrelevant look-over there.

    The Greens don’t like the spotlight being on them, do they?

Comments Page 5 of 37
1 … 4 5 6 … 37

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *