ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The voters probably care as much about Joyce’s misuse of entitlements as they cared about Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, Sam Dastyari and their excursions from the ruler-straight line of propriety. Of course that didn’t stop the L-NP from hounding those final 3 named to the ends of the earth.

  2. DG / dtt

    Sometime the EU are going to have ‘bite the bullet’ and deal with the fact that things need to be ‘rearranged’ based not only on customs union but also a defence pact.

  3. Paul_Karp: AFP witnesses confirm they’ve interviewed staff across two or more ministerial offices about AWU raid leak. No ministers. AFP won’t say if they will interview ministers (eg Michaelia Cash) #auspol

  4. Dan Gulberry @ #1341 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 9:36 am

    daretotread. @ #1327 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 7:16 am

    Probably the Europe/NA will break into a number of zones. Two seems too simplistic. Perhaps this is a bit 17th century in nature but it seems to me you have the following zones, with some sort of community of interest.

    1. Scandinavia plus Latvia (SW, No, Fin, Ice, La) maybe Denmark ?

    2. The Anglophones (UK, Ireland and USA and Canada) + Holland? Denmark? possibly much of the Carribean

    3. The German and French speakers Germany, Austria , France, Belgium, ? Czech, Slovak, Italy? Hungary?

    4. Western focused Eastern Europe. Poland, West Ukraine, Lithuania ? Estonia? plus the Catholic countries of the Balkans, Croatia, Romania, Albania

    5. The Russian influenced zone, largely comprised of Russian speakers and those of the Russian or may be Greek orthodox faith. Russia. Belarus, Eastern, Ukraine, Serbia, probably Bulgaria

    5. Mid Atlantic zone Spain, Portugal and much of South America

    Then finally the I do not have a clue zones – Turkey, Greece, Cyprus – too many conflicts and choices.

    Way too many zones. Why not simplify it down to just 3. Why not call them Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia?

    Well Oceania is fine – my Anglophone zone. Not sure where France and Germany fit in. Sir Humphrey may have a comment.

    East Asia is presumably China and Eurasia Russia. Bit 1950s my friend.

    But back to being serious, the EU is currently under a bit of tension,especially re Poland. This article suggests edging towards a truce, but when you look at the funding chart, it seems to me that with the UK gone, Germany s not going to want to bear the cost of Poland all by itself. which means that Poland will get less cash from the EU. Polexit pressure will increase.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-25/as-brexit-tensions-rise-eu-s-other-big-spat-edges-toward-truce

  6. The big problem the greens MIGHT face in Batman is that this govt is so on the nose that centre-left voters might think its better to support the main opposition part than the one they might naturally be inclined towards, particularly when Labor has a good candidate.

  10. daretotread. says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:39 am

    As society became more humane and civilized so too did the biblical texts.

    bemused says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:44 am
    When did this happen?

    DTT may be referring to the difference between the old and new testament.

  11. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:49 am
    AFP investigating itself as well about the AWU raid.

    And the AFP investigation is the reason Cash can’t talk about it. How conveniently cozy.

  12. Question @ #1360 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 7:00 am

    daretotread. says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:39 am

    As society became more humane and civilized so too did the biblical texts.

    bemused says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:44 am
    When did this happen?

    DTT may be referring to the difference between the old and new testament.

    The New Testament shows many borrowings from Greek Mythology. 🙂

  13. daretotread. says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:33 am

    It was in response to the idea of Europe splitting in two. Seems to me it may splinter quite a bit more.

    The disruption of the EU and NATO are certainly goals pursued by the military leadership in Russia, and they are responsible for financing reactionary, racist, separatist and authoritarian political actors in Europe, including the Fargists in the UK and similar voices in Poland and Hungary.

    Of course, the EU is not a “Franco-Gallic” enterprise, which would be one where France made a deal with itself. It has evolved from a 3-way Iron and Steel agreement into an economic and customs union, thence into a monetary and political union and increasingly a fiscal and security union.

    The forces that draw EU states together are far stronger than the forces that would divide them. Naturally, as Russia attempts to become more assertive, the States of Eastern Europe become even more closely aligned with the States of Western Europe.

  14. About time this was over. Lots of people who needed a severe ar#e kicking have got away with it –

    East Timor and Australia have reached an agreement for a treaty on their disputed maritime border and on a “pathway” to develop the giant Greater Sunrise offshore gas fields, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague says.

    Under the agreement, the share of revenue from the offshore gas field will differ depending on downstream benefits that arise from “different development concepts”, the statement released following talks in Kuala Lumpur said.

    The agreement would establish a maritime boundary in the Timor Sea for the first time.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-26/australia-and-east-timor-agree-on-maritime-border/9486752

  16. Well Michael McCormack may already be in breach of disclosure standards. Declared rental income from a property he bought in Sept 2016 just now.

  18. Leroy says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:44 am
    briefly – 2 and 4 wks ago are the benchmark two previous polls.
    “The survey was conducted online from 22nd to 25th February 2018 and is based on 1,028 respondents.”

    The Table dates are not clear…thanks Leroy.

  19. CNN’s Jeffrey Toobin blasts Trump’s ‘ridiculous’ ploy to make himself the hero of Parkland: ‘It’s embarrassing ”

    Yet another CNN personality called President Donald Trump out on Monday for asserting that he would have run into Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School on Valentine’s Day to prevent the mass shooting that left 17 people dead.

    “It’s ridiculous,” analyst Jeffrey Toobin noted. “It’s embarrassing.”

    Toobin became the third CNN pundit to blast Trump’s comments, joining host Jake Tapper who noted that Trump’s comments were ironic given his draft-dodging and reporter Jim Acosta, who asked White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders if the president was suggesting that he would have “saved the day.”

    “In fairness, when you look at his heroism during the Vietnam war, a prisoner of war for five years — oh, no, that was John McCain,” the legal analyst joked during a panel discussion with host Wolf Blitzer on “The Situation Room.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/cnns-jeffrey-toobin-blasts-trumps-ridiculous-ploy-make-hero-parkland-embarassing/

  20. Question. It’ve been dipping into this book, though I haven’t got far!

    In The Crucible of Faith, Philip Jenkins argues that much of the Judeo-Christian tradition we know today was born between 250-50 BCE, during a turbulent “Crucible Era.” It was during these years that Judaism grappled with Hellenizing forces and produced new religious ideas that reflected and responded to their changing world. By the time of the fall of the Temple in 70 CE, concepts that might once have seemed bizarre became normalized-and thus passed on to Christianity and later Islam. Drawing widely on contemporary sources from outside the canonical Old and New Testaments, Jenkins reveals an era of political violence and social upheaval that ultimately gave birth to entirely new ideas about religion, the afterlife, Creation and the Fall, and the nature of God and Satan

  21. Burgey

    God I hope these AWU court proceedings bring down Cash. She’s a bloody odious human being.

    I doubt you’ll find many who disagree with this assessment of Cash.

  22. Jackie Lambie comes out in support of business over battlers!

    The Tasmanian election is this weekend, and Jacqui Lambie potentially could find her party in a power broker position.

    Lambie has just told Sky she would back a Liberal government, not a Labor one, if she has the balance of power

    Jennifer Bechwati @jenbechwati
    In the event of a hung parliament, Jacqui Lambie has confirmed she’ll back the Liberal party… not Labor #taspol #tasvotes

    6:47 AM – Feb 27, 2018
    1

    Tim Beshara @Tim_Beshara
    A number of unions have donated to the Lambie campaign to elect… a Liberal Government. https://twitter.com/jenbechwati/status/968271283984089089 …

    6:57 AM – Feb 27, 2018

  28. Question @ #1360 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 11:00 am

    daretotread. says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:39 am

    As society became more humane and civilized so too did the biblical texts.

    bemused says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:44 am
    When did this happen?

    DTT may be referring to the difference between the old and new testament.

    Possibly.
    It is often an exercise in exegesis to interpret DTTs writings.

    She also has me wondering how Latvia gets classified differently to the other Baltic States, Lithuania and Estonia?

    Any clues?

  31. Barney in Go Dau says:
    The New Testament shows many borrowings from Greek Mythology.

    I tend to think the whole thing is an assortment of “borrowings”. Some of it is still universally relevant, but you have to be selective to make much sense of it, which is why it spawns so many interpretations.

  33. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee helping make America Trump again (MATA) !

    A liberal candidate for office is being maligned. The surprising twist? It’s her own party that is funding the ads

    ……..this young Democratic candidate would become the subject of a withering political attack. Branded a “Washington insider” and a carpetbagger, Moser has been maligned in recent days for harboring an “outright disgust for life in Texas”.

    What is unusual about these attacks is that they issue not from her Republican rival but from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the campaign arm of Democrats in the US House of Representatives. Concerned that Moser is too liberal to unseat a Trump patsy, the DCCC has embarked in the kind of smear campaign pioneered and popularized by its political opponents.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/26/democratic-party-laura-moser-texas

  34. briefly

    If Lambie was military, it usually follows that they’re conservative, but I’m surprised she’s not standing up for her ‘battlers’.

  36. antonbruckner11 says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 11:09 am
    Question. It’ve been dipping into this book, though I haven’t got far!

    In The Crucible of Faith, Philip Jenkins argues that much of the Judeo-Christian tradition we know today was born between 250-50 BCE, during a turbulent “Crucible Era.” It was during these years that Judaism grappled with Hellenizing forces and produced new religious ideas that reflected and responded to their changing world. By the time of the fall of the Temple in 70 CE, concepts that might once have seemed bizarre became normalized-and thus passed on to Christianity and later Islam. Drawing widely on contemporary sources from outside the canonical Old and New Testaments, Jenkins reveals an era of political violence and social upheaval that ultimately gave birth to entirely new ideas about religion, the afterlife, Creation and the Fall, and the nature of God and Satan

    Thanks Anton,
    I know the flood story goes back as far as Gilgamesh and the earliest writings in Sumeria. Makes sense since it was a flood plain 😉

    Strangely, I think religion comes from the same part of humans as science. The bit that wants to make sense of it all. I prefer science because it is more flexible and open to new ideas, and accepts we don’t know everything (and life might be a bit boring if we did) .

  37. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 11:19 am
    briefly

    Lambie sees herself as a “battler”. In standing up for herself, she’s able to claim she’s standing up for all “battlers”.

  38. bemused says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 11:14 am

    Possibly.
    It is often an exercise in exegesis to interpret DTTs writings.

    She also has me wondering how Latvia gets classified differently to the other Baltic States, Lithuania and Estonia?

    Any clues?

    With DTT it’s often better to just go with the vibe, but to be honest I don’t know much about the Baltic states.

  39. Question @ #1388 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 11:26 am

    bemused says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 11:14 am

    Possibly.
    It is often an exercise in exegesis to interpret DTTs writings.

    She also has me wondering how Latvia gets classified differently to the other Baltic States, Lithuania and Estonia?

    Any clues?

    With DTT it’s often better to just go with the vibe, but to be honest I don’t know much about the Baltic states.

    Latvia sits between the other two which, to me, makes it unlikely it would be classified differently to the other two.

  40. Accusation just not on
    At present we have in Australia a second-rate Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, supported by a third-rate academic, Clive Hamilton, (“Labor harbours a cancer that must be cut out”, February 19, p18) fulminating about a major, new communist threat to Australia and fomenting a political environment in the country which begins to resemble a new McCarthyism.
    And Hamilton now includes me in a defamatory accusation that I am somehow a complicit agent of the Chinese state because I have dared to point to Turnbull’s monumental hypocrisy on China.
    And further that I should have the temerity to challenge whether it is right to now launch an “anti-Chinese jihad” against patriotic Australian citizens of Chinese origin, remarks which Hamilton does not even render accurately in his anti-Labor polemic.
    A few facts might advance the debate. In government, I legislated to ban all foreign donations to political parties. Turnbull as Liberal leader refused to pass it in the Senate.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/act/canberra-times-letters-to-the-editor-accusation-just-not-on-20180225-h0wmjz.html

  41. Religion has traditionally been used to explain things that humans didn’t comprehend: natural phenomena (the seasons, natural disasters, thunder and lightning, etc); astronomical objects (sun, moon, stars, etc); creation, and the afterlife.
    By now, science has explained most of these things. Only the creation of the universe and the afterlife are currently beyond our understanding. So these remain the domain of religion. At some point (probably quite soon) humanity will figure out creation. The afterlife is more tricky; it remains an elusive topic for scientific investigation (assuming an afterlife exists at all).

  45. Question @ #1360 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 10:00 am

    daretotread. says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:39 am

    As society became more humane and civilized so too did the biblical texts.

    bemused says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:44 am
    When did this happen?

    DTT may be referring to the difference between the old and new testament.

    Thanks Question

    Fairly bloody obvious Bemused. I just assumed you and everyone else would grasp that. Peace love and Kumbaya.

  47. So has anyone checked out the press coverage of Barnaby voting at the recent by-election?

    To confirm he had his parents in tow to maintain his good family image?

    And have the images from the election night bash, with Turnbull in tow, are there images of Barnaby’s wife and daughters being present?

    And what excuse was tendered to Turnbull because you would assume he would have noted the absence of Joyce’s wife and children who are normally in tow at such functions?

    Just questions

  48. briefly

    Lambie is Lib…always has been.

    Just about all our ‘independents’ have proved be closet Libs.

    It’s not about how many times they’ve voted with the Coalition versus the ALP.

    It’s about how they’ve come up with ‘reasons’ to save the Coalitions butt when they’ve really needed it.

  49. Agree kakuru,

    When you think about it, existence is all rather paradoxical. How can something come from nothing? The problem with saying God made the universe is that it doesn’t explain what made God.

  50. Briefly “Lambie is Lib…always has been.”

    I agree. Although strongly populist, Jacquie Lambie and her network seems to be one of a number of personalities and groups that have sprung up to occupy ground closer to the political centre vacated by the “Liberals”, along with X, Clive Palmer and independents like Rob Oakshott, Tony Windsor and, to a lesser extent, Andrew Wilkie (who I see as more of a Green).

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