ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. daretotread. @ #1395 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 11:39 am

    Question @ #1360 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 10:00 am

    daretotread. says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:39 am

    As society became more humane and civilized so too did the biblical texts.

    bemused says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:44 am
    When did this happen?

    DTT may be referring to the difference between the old and new testament.

    Thanks Question

    Fairly bloody obvious Bemused. I just assumed you and everyone else would grasp that. Peace love and Kumbaya.

    The Roman Empire, which dominated at the time the New Testament was written, was not notably touchy feely.

  2. MacDonald on the way out hopefully.

    Speaking to those within the Queensland LNP, they say they would be EXTREMELY surprised if Ian Macdonald is preselected for the next election. Mostly because of his age – another full senate turn would see him pushing 80, and well, the view within a lot of the LNP is that he is already quite set in his ways.

    So while they are all very grateful for his service, word is, there will be discussions about moving on.

    Macdonald has said you’ll have to carry him out of the parliament ‘in a box’, so I look forward to hearing more about that particular branch discussion when it occurs.

    It was originally meant to occur when George Brandis’s senate spot was thrown open for pre-selection (that decision is to be made next month) but apparently, at least according to my sources, the LNP decided against putting together its whole senate ticket, because of the potential showdown with Macdonald.

    So we’ll have to wait a little bit longer to see how that all plays out.

    I mention all of this, because it may be one of the last chances we have to witness the Penny Wong v Ian Macdonald show. So treasure it.

    Wong obviously is:

    Senator Penny Wong @SenatorWong
    You should trying being in the room… https://twitter.com/reninoz/status/968267961436848128

    6:35 AM – Feb 27, 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/feb/27/barnaby-joyce-refuses-rule-out-leadership-comeback-politics-live

  3. Agree Steve, we have been spared a lot of damage because the independents are populist.

    It says something when the populists vote against corporate tax cuts. Shorten has won
    that debate.

    I also think Oakshott, Windsor, and Wilkie have a bit more to them than simple populism.

  4. Wilkie is green tinged. He ran for them in Bennelong against Howard in 2004 (supposedly the inspiration for Hogg to put McKew up in 2007).

  5. “The problem with saying God made the universe is that it doesn’t explain what made God.”

    It doesn’t take a genius to wonder about that. I think that question occurs to lots of kids, but in Catholic school at least, we knew better than to ask.

    The other question is of course, what was God doing in the countless billions of years before he created the world – sitting around by himself (on what?) doing nothing? Saint Augustine (one of my least favourite Saints) had two answers:

    1. God is outside time so the question is meaningless
    2. Creating Hell for people who asked smart-alec questions.

  6. TomMcIlroy: Greens Justice spokesman Nick McKim says Philip Ruddock should step down as head of the religious freedom inquiry following his election as NSW Liberal Party president #auspol

  7. bemused says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 11:47 am
    The Roman Empire, which dominated at the time the New Testament was written, was not notably touchy feely.

    That might explain why they lost their mojo after they became Christian 🙂

  8. ItzaDream says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 11:44 am
    Unless existence doesn’t exist at all.

    That’s the intro to philosophy isn’t it? “I think therefore I am”.

    lizzie says:
    But where is the Universe? That query always makes me feel dizzy.

    Don’t worry, it’s safely in a box on my kitchen table.

  9. Question @ #1411 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 11:51 am

    bemused says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 11:47 am
    The Roman Empire, which dominated at the time the New Testament was written, was not notably touchy feely.

    That might explain why they lost their mojo after they became Christian 🙂

    ‘The Rise and Decline of the Christian Empire’ by Ian Guthridge is a good reference.

  10. A word of thanks from all those who appreciate the substantive changes that the Greens have made for the environment over the last 25 years and 54 days.

  11. what was God doing in the countless billions of years before he created the world

    Working out the statistical analysis required to make a blog about psephology.

    He could have spent a few of those billion years working on his fashion sense.

  12. @ Everyone whinging about Lambie.

    You realise she’s helping Labor, right?

    The Reachtel polling, if reflected in the vote, would lead to 13 10 2 0 seats.

    So Lambie, knowing that she will not win a seat, is just trying to spread the idea that people’s choice is between Lib+Lamb and Lab+Greens. By contrast, the Liberals are trying to spread the idea that the choice is between Lib majority and Lab + Green.

    Lambie’s intervention might change some votes – the people that vote for the ‘stability’ of a majority government, but otherwise vote either Labor or Liberal.

    It won’t change anything after the election because her party will not win a single seat.

  13. Steve

    The chance to ask an articulate, young and reforming female PM about her agenda and grand plans for New Zealand. What do we get?

    When was the baby conceived?
    You are pretty.
    Why did you get pregant on the election campaign?
    Clarke how do you feel about fishing?

    Ffs.

  14. But where is the Universe? That query always makes me feel dizzy.

    Think of the Universe as a packet of Tim Tams.


    Hopefully you are now thinking about Tim Tams and the conundrum has gone away.

  15. what was God doing in the countless billions of years before he created the world

    Give the guy a break. Do you realise how many turtles were needed before the world could be created ?

  16. Looks fun Anton.

    Made me laugh SK.

    Steve777. Your saint who said “God is outside time so the question is meaningless”, would have stumped me. 🙂

  17. Ides of March (the one who isn’t logged in):

    “When was the baby conceived?
    You are pretty.
    Why did you get pregant on the election campaign?
    Clarke how do you feel about fishing?”

    Funny that no one has asked similar questions of Barnaby. Of course, no one would say the second, but maybe they could say “Geez you’re flushed. How many beers have you had? You seem to spend a lot of time in pubs”. Instead of the last question, maybe they could have asked him “How do you feel about driving into flooded creeks?”

  18. Trump says he would have run in, even without a gun, and tried to save the kids*. How could he possibly say that and expect to be taken seriously. For that matter, how could he say arming teachers is the solution and be taken seriously.

    * Maybe a parents of of one of the kids in there would have.

  19. You know Question and Bemused, you both are being nasty fr the bloody sake of it.

    Relativley recent;ly I DID look up the ethnic composition of the three Baltic countries,because like you i did not know, but unlike you I was not abusive or disrespectful to those who DID know.
    It would appear that the ethnic and re;ligious composition of the three countries is very different. i mayslef like you until recently lumped them all together. ‘

    However when I posted I was aware of very distinct differences. Latvia for example is predominately Lutheran in religion but also has 6% Russian population.there is ancient connection also with Finland (and surprisingly) a significant number of people who are still essentially pagans. I believe there is also a significant Scandinavian influence but would need to check it.

    Lithuania while sharing some ancient cultural links with Finland is largely catholic and as such is much more likely to lean towards Poland and Western Ukraine. There is not much of an ethnic Russian population, although ancient domination by Scandinavia could perhaps give it entree to a Scandinavian zone.

    Estonia is more compex. It too has a significant 25% plus Russian population but this is concentrated in a few regions with one province being 72% Russian. (Not the current Wikipaedia entry has been “bowdelerised” but a little more search shown the reality. Surprisingly too (for me) was the significant proportion of pagan ie old believers. Worshiping oak trees. (Sorta bit like Ned from GoT, I guess. Perhaps of greatest significance is that they are non religious predominately.

    So if you are looking to allocate these three baltic states to groupings, Lithuania fits well with Poland, Latvia with either Scandinavia or Russia and Estonia probably needs to be split into two regions, one heading towards Russia and another towards Scandinavia.

    Estonai

  20. Question. I blame three things for me not continuing past 1st year physics at Uni. Tim Tams and Catholic girls….and physics.

    (the first two go together as it was a catholic girl who taught me the pleasures of the Tim Tam Slam)

  21. Steve777. Your saint who said “God is outside time so the question is meaningless”, would have stumped me. “

    It’s a stumping answer. In fact, as I recall, the teacher said the God, who will exist forever into the future, had also always existed forever into the past. I could accept God going on forever into the future, but the idea of Him having already existed forever completely stumped me when I tried to get my head around it (at which I didn’t succeed of course).

    Of course if time extended forever into the past, everything would have happened by now. Or something like that.

    I’ve got to do some other stuff. Back later.

  22. bemused @ #1404 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 10:47 am

    daretotread. @ #1395 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 11:39 am

    Question @ #1360 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 10:00 am

    daretotread. says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:39 am

    As society became more humane and civilized so too did the biblical texts.

    bemused says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 10:44 am
    When did this happen?

    DTT may be referring to the difference between the old and new testament.

    Thanks Question

    Fairly bloody obvious Bemused. I just assumed you and everyone else would grasp that. Peace love and Kumbaya.

    The Roman Empire, which dominated at the time the New Testament was written, was not notably touchy feely.

    Compared with Abraham putting his little son on a block ready to sacrifice him to a vengeful god the roams were pretty touch feely. Not saying they were perfect mind you but human sacrifice had gone out of vogue. The Greeks who receded them also were into paedophaelia rather than throat slicing. A minor step forward.

    There much less of god smiting people with thunder bolts too in the New testament era. Christ was more for suffering the little children to come forward rather than slitting their throats. Forgiveness of sin was all the rage too.

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