ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Looks like Murphy is doing a write up of the supplementary questions in Essential and Peter King will cover primary votes and 2PP.

  3. Looks like Barney has already got his “stab in the back” narrative going. You certainly know, when Malcolm comes out and emphasises that he had NOTHING (repeat NOTHING) to do with Barney’s demise that he was up to his neck in it. Going to be a lot of bad blood going forward.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Uber Tuber’s army is set to be as big as 23000.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/home-affairs-is-now-the-apss-secondlargest-agency-bosses-reveal-20180226-h0wn39.html
    Tony Wright tells us about our new Deputy PM.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/read-this-if-you-don-t-know-a-thing-about-australia-s-new-deputy-prime-minister-michael-mccormack-20180226-p4z1st.html
    Australian voters are more troubled by a potential misuse of entitlements or an improper exercise of ministerial authority than they are about the sexual relationship between Barnaby Joyce and Vikki Campion, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/27/voters-care-more-about-money-than-sex-poll-shows-after-joyce-affair
    Laura Tingle wonders if the Nats will ever learn. Google.
    /news/politics/will-the-nationals-ever-learn-20180226-h0wniq
    Adam Gartrell on the revelation that the travel and accommodation claims of Barnaby Joyce and his new partner Vikki Campion are being independently investigated, opening the possibility of further embarrassment for the embattled MP and overshadowing the appointment of his successor.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-s-expenses-audited-as-nats-reel-from-leadership-change-20180226-p4z1tl.html
    Michelle Grattan writes that McCormack has tough task to match Barnaby Joyce’s 2016 electoral gold standard. “Gold” standard?
    https://theconversation.com/mccormack-has-tough-task-to-match-barnaby-joyces-2016-electoral-gold-standard-92453
    Troy Bramston sums up the Nats with “Liberals’ partners lack talent, experience, gravitas, profile, unity, wit and vision.” Google.
    /opinion/columnists/troy-bramston/nationals-new-man-michael-mccormack-is-bushwhacked-from-the-start/news-story/a77302d4a3d68bedd0db02dca176fab0
    Tess Lawrence reveals the machinations at play behind Darren Chester being overlooked as a contender for leader of the Nationals. Did Chester’s intervention with Barnaby Joyce set the disgraced former Deputy Prime Minister on the unsealed road to self-destruction?
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/exclusive-darren-chesters-intervention-with-barnaby-joyce,11240
    Under McCormack, the Nationals need to accept they are a minority and preserve their independence.
    https://theconversation.com/under-mccormack-the-nationals-need-to-accept-they-are-a-minority-and-preserve-their-independence-92355
    John Passant writes that Barnaby Joyce is not dead; he is just resting on the backbench. Michael McCormack will have to accept that Barnaby is the power behind the throne, waiting to usurp him when the time is right.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mccormack-elected-nationals-leader-as-barnaby-rests-on-the-back-bench,11241
    ACT MP Gai Brodtmann has called for one of the first decisions by new Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack to be to scrap the APVMA move to Armidale.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberra-mps-call-for-mccormack-to-can-apvma-move-20180226-h0wnsd.html
    At least one member of the National Party believes that George Christensen – the northern Queensland politician best known for bizarre rants against greenies and climate change – has what it takes to be the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia. And that’s George himself!
    https://newmatilda.com/2018/02/26/george-christensen-contests-nationals-leadership-position-probably-gets-least-one-vote/
    Katharine Murphy writes that the new deputy PM is a less chaotic figure than Barnaby Joyce, but he will need to boost his personal profile and earn the trust of the regions.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/26/with-mccormack-nationals-reject-maverick-experiment-for-conservative-guy-in-a-suit
    Tony Abbott’s friend Catherine McGregor says he’s so “consumed’’ by Malcolm Turnbull he needs to “shut up’’. He’s lost his balance she says. Google.
    /business/media/broadcast/qa-wrap-tony-abbott-versus-malcolm-turnbull-the-politics-of-the-left-bill-shortens-corbyn-comparison-and-the-new-deputy-prime-minister/news-story/dfcf5c55c4367b5445878d6146252be7
    David Wroe – what in the hell is going on with Roman?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-s-expenses-audited-as-nats-reel-from-leadership-change-20180226-p4z1tl.html
    This Fairfax special report shows how recycling ain’t recycling.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/duped-at-the-dump-recycling-rort-as-the-truth-is-buried-20180219-p4z0v7.html
    Craig Emerson wonders what Hawke and Keating would do today. Google.
    http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/what-would-bob-hawke-and-paul-keating-do-20180225-h0wn4k
    The New South Wales ombudsman is investigating whether WaterNSW – the body responsible for compliance with the state’s water laws – has misled it when it provided data last year on the number of prosecutions and enforcement actions it had taken in the 15 months prior. It heeds more that that methinks.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/27/nsw-ombudsman-investigating-waternsw-over-misleading-data
    One of Victoria’s top cops has resigned in disgrace.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/top-cop-resigns-in-disgrace-over-link-to-racist-and-obscene-posts-20180226-p4z1u5.html
    Gladys is copping some friendly fire over the new stadia spending’.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/government-mp-slams-2-5b-spending-on-new-stadiums-for-sydney-20180226-p4z1ug.html
    Perhaps this would be a better way to spend the money.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/invest-in-children-not-stadiums-for-a-real-return-20180226-p4z1rd.html
    Australian students should be required to study the Bible as part of a well-rounded education, says a leading US Christian activist. Who let this clown into the country?
    /national-affairs/education/bible-lessons-should-be-a-must-for-all-students-says-christian-activist/news-story/77fc3c1e97a8b14b7f917483be909da1
    The sexual harassment complaint that triggered the downfall of Barnaby Joyce continues to stoke division inside the Nationals, with some senior party figures believing the allegations were weaponised to blast the former deputy prime minister from cabinet. Let it continue.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-supporters-suspect-sexual-harassment-allegations-were-weaponised-to-blast-him-from-cabinet-20180226-p4z1s7.html
    How’s THIS for an extreme weather event!
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/really-extreme-global-weather-event-leaves-scientists-aghast-20180225-p4z1q4.html
    Pauline Hanson won’t be turned on knocking back the corporate tax cuts.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/02/26/pauline-hanson-company-tax-cuts/
    With its high volatility Bitcoin is making divorces even more messy now.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/investments/the-volatile-pot-of-gold-bitcoin-is-making-messy-divorces-even-worse-20180227-p4z1v6.html
    I hope disgraceful performances like this at QBE make it to the royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qbe-s-costly-failures-include-7m-termination-pay-for-departed-execs-20180226-p4z1rz.html
    Kevin Rudd says that Turnbull no longer cares about reconciliation with Indigenous Australians.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/26/turnbull-no-longer-cares-about-reconciliation-with-indigenous-australians
    Michael West has a good hard look at how cardiologists are earning their big money.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/inside-the-stent-investigating-the-boom-in-cardiac-surgery/
    The farce of Honorary Doctorates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/honorary-doctorates-can-leave-real-students-feeling-a-little-miffed-20180226-p4z1ry.html
    Bob “The Builder” Day is back in the news.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/26/bob-day-points-finger-at-finance-department-over-lease-arrangement
    Now Mehajer has pleaded guilty to the taxi driver assault.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/salim-mehajer-pleads-guilty-to-taxi-driver-assault-20180226-p4z1uu.html

    Cartoon Corner – Assistance required. I cannot find a way to extract picture files of Fairfax cartoons for the Dawn Patrol.

    You will find some, but not all, Fairfax cartoons here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/todays-cartoons-the-illustrated-news-20180224-h0wkrg.html
    David Rowe fills McCormack’s boots for him.

    Something similar from Pat Clement.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9a0b2ec18701c2727e53d8e80d73e7d2
    David Pope with a sketch.

    Peter Broelman ventures into the Nats’ party room.

    Paul Zanetti has Barnaby welcoming Turnbull back home.

    Yes, guns are a gift from god.

    Matt Golding has a couple of Barnabys for us.

  5. This is the @Monster_Dome ‘Twitter Warrior’ guy referenced in the Menzies House poster:

    MonsterDome
    @Monster_Dome
    Freelance writer, uppity bogan, Sea-Eagles supporter. Free speech extremist. Libertarian. I’m “travelling down memory lane on acid”.

    He only has as many Followers as I do though. Hmm. Maybe I should start hawking myself as a ‘Twitter Warrior’ for the Left!?! 😉

  7. Good Morning

    On QandA last night the British Labour MP Harriet Harman was all defence about the referendum

    AC Grayling was pointing out that only 37% voted for Brexit.

    Yet the politician was all but the majority voted yes. She is correct out of the 37%.

    So yes the UK should have another referendum. Two reasons. More information. Higher turnout would give a more valid answer.

    If it was a compulsory voted referendum like here it would be a different story.

  8. My son decided to read the Bible as an adult.

    He was absolutely aghast at the bit where Lot offers the angry mob his virgin daughters to do whatever they want to with — and that this is why God decides Lot is a Good Man.

  10. JackiSchechner: The guy who won’t take a raindrop for his own kid is going to take a bullet for someone else’s kid? pic.twitter.com/JFyeRj0KT8

  12. 169lunar: Interesting that Michael McCormack remains fully entitled to apply for Greek Citizenship through his maternal Grandfather. He only has to register to apply #auspol @smh @theage @dailytelegraph pic.twitter.com/ZyUjE17vWJ

  21. guytaur

    The High Court doesn’t have to hold anything. To have dual citizenship, you have to be a citizen of two countries. McCormack is only the citizen of one (that I’m aware of).

    To become a citizen of Greece, he would have to apply. If he hasn’t applied, he’s not a citizen of Greece.

    Therefore he does not hold two citizenships – Australian and Greek – he only holds one – Australian, so there’s no problem.

  22. Morning all. Zoom I was about to say the same thing about the bible. Anyone over the age of 15 who read the full uncensored old testament would be started on the road to atheism. And the bits about what happened to the former inhabitants of the “holy land” when semitic peoples arrived leaves you in no doubt how virtuous our ancestors were. Genesis led to genocide.

  28. Morning all

    I caught up with watching the John Oliver sketch on the Italian election this week. It was posted sometime yesterday.
    Anyhoo it was really good. Highly recommended..

  30. I am so very tired of IPA clones in parliament.

    Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 21m21 minutes ago

    The Indue welfare card company is propped up by former Nationals MPs and supporters of the IPA/Liberal Party. There is no transparency, yet the government keeps pushing the card which costs $10,000 per person to create. $10,000! #auspol #abcnews24

  31. Although the focus in the Murphy article is of voters and the money concern in the Barnaby saga, she manages to avoid any mention of Malcolm approving the highly paid but apparently fake job for his deputy’s partner. Turnbull changed his story a number of times in this matter. The media is now in protect-Mal-mode. For Labor, the focus is on Turnbull, not Joyce.

  33. The investigation into the not-a-partner-yet’s job fiddly diddly do would likely shine some light onto Lib bull shit and lies. Scrap that one, ‘nothing to be gained’.

    But a lot to be ‘gained’ and payback by probing Joyce’s travel rorting while staying staying clean.

    What a load of filth these overpaid crooks are.

  34. The Essential homepage (remember that, from before Guardian?) has it at Labor 53(-0), Coalition 47(+1). Take that with a grain of salt of course.

  35. 5 Deferment Trump Says He Would Have Run Into The Parkland Shooting Without A Gun

    Trump claimed that he would have courageously run into the shooting at Stoneman Douglas High School unarmed. Trump is the same man who got five deferments to avoid serving in Vietnam, and he is so lazy that he prefers to use a golf cart instead of walking.

    Trump wouldn’t know heroic courage if he tripped over while getting up to turn his television on to Fox News. The next time there is a mass shooting, and there will be a next time because Trump and the NRA won’t ban assault weapons, let’s send Donald Trump in unarmed to handle it.

    America is tired of the tough talk. It’s time for Trump to put some action behind his empty words.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/02/26/5-deferment-trump-says-run-parkland-shooting-without-gun.html


  39. zoomster (AnonBlock)
    Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 7:41 am
    Comment #1258
    …
    He was absolutely aghast at the bit where Lot offers the angry mob his virgin daughters to do whatever they want to with

    Try Joshua 6 verse 21 on for size. Lot was angle compared to that.

  41. Total Now and 2 weeks ago
    Liberal 32% 33%
    National 3% 3%
    Total Liberal/National 35% 36%
    Labor 35% 37%
    Greens 10% 10%
    Nick Xenophon Team 2% 4%
    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 8% 6%
    Other/Independent 10% 7%
    2 party preferred
    Liberal National 47% 46%
    Labor 53% 54%

  42. We’re just back in the 53-54 region we have been in for the past 18 months, Christmas break aside. Don’t get too excited when it jumps up to 54, and don’t get too disappointed when it drops to 53. Neither of them reflect a trend.

    Barnabygate was bad for the government, but no worse than any sitting week in this accident prone government.

  43. That Essential must be an outlier in terms of primary – how can ALP lose 2 on primary?

    One Nation and others gain 3 points … 2 from ALP and 1 from Libs. The Nats, who should have lost ground stick firm on 3.

    Doesn’t make a lot of sense.

  44. Headline from Murdoch’s National Smear Sheet:
    “Shorten’s IR promise to CFMEU

    SIMON BENSON

    Bill Shorten vowed to tear up industrial laws during a speech to CFMEU protesters, some of who allegedly threatened to rape the children of non-striking workers.”

    ie. If you’re not angry about Shorten’s vow to “tear up industrial laws” then you should be angry about unnamed unionists threatening to rape children.

    Disgraceful

  45. Billie Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 6:23 am Comment #1234

    I reckon Britain has to leave the EU as that’s what they voted for and Germany and France will hold them to it. All that is is left for Britain to negotiate is its exit which it has spectacularly failed to do. Brexit will leave Britain impoverished because their empire has gone and the finance industry is decamping

    I think that other EU countries have been making their arrangements while the UK have just disrupted the established arrangements.

    No special provisions for the UK if they try to go back.

    I think the EU is going to end up as two associated groups. Whether that will be geograpic based – east and west – or economy based yet to be seen.

  46. Jen

    It probably is an outlier but I always believe that personal attacks lose support for the attacker and engender a sympathy vote for the attacked.

    While you and I know that labor had nothing to do with it, in the eyes of the ordinary voter labor will be blamed.

  48. Trump may not be able to run but he can duck. During the election campaign in 2017 there was a scare at one of his rallies and he ducked very quickly. Enough to prove that he is just the man you want guarding kids in schools.

  49. CTar1 @ #1295 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 7:58 am

    Billie Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 6:23 am Comment #1234

    I reckon Britain has to leave the EU as that’s what they voted for and Germany and France will hold them to it. All that is is left for Britain to negotiate is its exit which it has spectacularly failed to do. Brexit will leave Britain impoverished because their empire has gone and the finance industry is decamping

    I think that other EU countries have been making their arrangements while the UK have just disrupted the established arrangements.

    No special provisions for the UK if they try to go back.

    I think the EU is going to end up as two associated groups. Whether that will be geograpic based – east and west – or economy based yet to be seen.

    Yes I think that the European model is falling apart. I think it expanded too quickly and absorbed too many countries which were not ready for membership and which changed the balance.

    Western Europe France, Germany, the low countries and those parts of Scandinavia which chose to join was one thing, since they had similar economies and cultures. It was a bit of a stretch allowing in the Mediterranean countries, especially Greece. However when they included all the Eastern European countries, so newly released form the iron curtain, the economic and cultural differences were too large to allow a consistent approach. Poland in particular was very big and culturally quite different. Perhaps if they had waited 20 years for the democracies and economies to stabilise, it may have been wiser.

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