ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  4. CTar1

    Ah yes the “pull throughs” . Loved the “secret compartment” aspect but as we did not have guns on the farm no reason to take them home.

  5. Also Chester apparently had been upset last year with Barnaby Joyce’s “Jobs” part of his “Jobs’n’Growth” plan for his former staffer. Which got him demoted, and got Littleproud promoted. So extremely interesting that the “Barnaby-Lobby” just failed getting Littleproud up (10-11 on preliminary feelers if some are to be believed).

  7. poroti

    My father had a SMLE with a sport stock, a good as new barrel, and a peep sight in as new condition.

    He kept it in the ceiling space over my parents bedroom where he could get it quickly.

    He had no interest in fox pelts but did in foxes so blowing them away with it a good option.

  8. Good God! For someone who doesn’t want to express an opinion, Catherine MacGregor sure has a lot to say!

    Catherine’s favourite subject is Catherine.

  9. I still find it (sort of) amusing that our PM says he didn’t know about his Deputy PM’s somewhat interesting circumstances until recently. I knew about this a long way out from last year’s by-election – so how could the PM not know? Either he did know and is lying, or he truly didn’t know, and his head really is in the clouds (or somewhere darker).

  11. CTar1

    No foxes or possums so no real need. A rat or occasional mouse was the only mammal ‘pest’, cat took care of them. Rabbits were a rare sight. For some reason they never bred like ,,,,,,,,well rabbits. Heaps of guns in the district though, wild pigs,ducks etc . hunting was popular.

  13. I was in the air cadets and we had to shoot a qualifying (20 out of 25) score with the modified .22 SMLE over 25m before they would let us loose with the .303 version on the big range.

    It’s 50 years ago but I can remember as clear as mud loading the first stripper clip into the magazine and looking down at the open breech and thinking I would not like to be on the receiving end of one of those.

    The .22 was a pop gun and the .303 went bang and the recoil could move a lightly framed teenage boy a foot back down the mound.

    I did the required amount of shooting on the range but I wasn’t much of a shot and I never much liked it really.

    I think it was that initial thought of being on the receiving end of a bullet.

  14. Rocket Rocket @ #1211 Monday, February 26th, 2018 – 7:36 pm

    I still find it (sort of) amusing that our PM says he didn’t know about his Deputy PM’s somewhat interesting circumstances until recently. I knew about this a long way out from last year’s by-election – so how could the PM not know? Either he did know and is lying, or he truly didn’t know, and his head really is in the clouds (or somewhere darker).

    Of course he knew. As someone said during the height of Barnaby’s Baby Shitstorm, what? He spent that time campaigning in the NE by-election and thought Barnaby’s family’s absence from the campaign AND on election night was a giant coincidence?

  15. Turnbull is taking the typical way out… suspicion and gossip means you can ignore it. When the proof gets thrown at you, you’re forced to confront it.

    Tons of people in Canberra knew Barnaby was having an affair, not necessarily known who with… but the rumours were well known to people on the periphery (at best). Cormann himself said he was aware of rumours.

  16. An interesting thing about the Chasers’ APEC stunt, posted earlier, is their argument in the resulting court case.

    The NSW government charged them with infringement of the laws passed for APEC restricting access to the area near Circular Quay in Sydney.
    The Chasers include at least one member who studied law. Their argument was that the APEC laws allow entry to restricted areas for wtte ‘ people performing their normal employmenr’.
    The Chasers argued this is precisely what they were doing: their ‘normal employment ‘.

    They won the case.

  17. Still on the UK – strange how the “DailyMail online” doesn’t have a link header for Brexit when it is by far the biggest issue for the UK in decades. They have headers for – Syria – Russia – ISIS – Migrant Crisis, but no Brexit. Maybe they just can’t bear the thought of their readers instantly linking to all the absurdist stances the various Tory Ministers (and Prime Minister) seem to take on an almost daily basis.

  19. Simply, the personal circumstances which have engulfed Joyce were widely and well known well ahead of the by-election

    They were spoken of in political circles in Melbourne

    The fact he no longer resided in the family home was a given

    Interestingly, when he voted he was accompanied by his parents – not his wife or daughters from who he was estranged

    Check the media coverage

    If any confirmation was required it was his parents in the media not his wife or daughters

    I wonder who they voted for?

    Then you get to who was and wasn’t present at the function on election night – again no wife or daughters, but the Akubra, check shirt wearing pm was there in all of his glory

    So Barnaby, where is your family on this triumphal night?

    They are home with a headache, Malcolm

    Thanks for asking

    I will pass on your good wishes when I get home tonight

  20. Observer:

    I did not know Barnaby voted with his parents, I thought he was accompanied by Malcolm.

    Even more evidence that something was amiss.

  22. I have noticed this week that Barnaby Joyce’s wife is being referred to as his ex wife even though they are separated not divorced…Zed Sejelja said it tonight…I saw it on the 9 and 10 news also…untrue and too kind to Barnaby as if he doesn’t have a wife so his ill deeds are mitigated…

  23. The PM and Barnaby have constructed an entirely false, but good enough to trick the media, timeline of move and jobs that means if you don’t have a look at the spirit of the law or the ministerial guidelines it is all ok. I’m not one to believe it would stand up to a light wind.

  25. Are they going to rerun the referendum or just pretend it didn’t happen, can’t say I’m a big fan of the concept of ignoring referendum’s.

  26. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-manafort/manaforts-la-bankruptcy-fight-may-offer-new-avenue-for-mueller-probe-idUSKCN1GA160

    LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Federal prosecutors who have already indicted President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort on charges of money laundering, bank fraud and covertly lobbying for pro-Russian interests may have additional leverage arising from a loan he received while engaged in the bankruptcies of properties in California, several former law enforcement officials say.

    The grip tightens on the Trumpo-Putinists….

  27. WeWantPaul says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 12:16 am

    Are they going to rerun the referendum or just pretend it didn’t happen, can’t say I’m a big fan of the concept of ignoring referendum’s.

    Too soon to know…most likely there will be a vote…a vote for rescission!!

  28. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/eastern-ghouta-gas-attack-chlorine-syria-deaths-assad-airstrikes-artillery-civil-war-rebels-a8228801.html

    The Trumpo-Putinists will doubtless be behind this….

    On Saturday a unanimous United Nations vote ordered an immediate 30-day ceasefire in the Syrian government’s week-old assault on the besieged rebel area to allow medical evacuations and aid shipments. Both Russian-assisted government bombing and rebel mortar fire have continued, killing at least 34 people.

  29. Too soon to know…most likely there will be a vote…a vote for rescission!!

    I think they would be very wise to have a vote, I’m not sure about the whole idea of votes to undo past votes, but perhaps. If I was the EU they’d get a lot less than nothing.

  30. WeWantPaul

    I think the EU would be unwise to be seen to be punishing anyone. It has to be a union based in law rather than the sentiments.

    The heart-warming thing though is seeing the Trumpo-Putinist scoundrel, Nigel Farage, choking on his sandwiches.

  31. Nicola Sturgeon
    ✔
    @NicolaSturgeon
    I welcome any Labour movement in right direction but, tbh, it still sounds very similar to the ‘have cake and eat it’ approach of PM. Why Labour doesn’t just embrace a single market/CU outcome in full is beyond me. https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/968082096454434821 …
    9:24 PM – Feb 26, 2018

    There are plenty of voices calling for Corbyn to go much further…and doubtless he will. Corbyn can topple May and prevent Brexit. He should do both. The Tories will implode.

  34. I reckon Britain has to leave the EU as that’s what they voted for and Germany and France will hold them to it. All that is is left for Britain to negotiate is its exit which it has spectacularly failed to do. Brexit will leave Britain impoverished because their empire has gone and the finance industry is decamping

  36. Ironic that Abbott wants to limit migration, but we could be flooded by temporary workers.
    Have the Coalition ever made a decision that is genuinely to Australia’s advantage? Especially where they are negotiating a TPP.

    Sally McManus‏Verified account @sallymcmanus · 11h11 hours ago

    s TPP is a shocking deal for Aussie workers. It commits us to accepting unlimited numbers of temporary workers for 435 occupations, even when locals want the jobs. The other countries have not agreed to the same, instead have protected their own workers

  37. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Theresa May is the Anti Thatcher. A terrible leader. ‘Leading’ the UK off a cliff. For all her faults Maggie Thatcher was a resolute national leader. Even if she improved the country’s GDP via outrageous policies, she improved it. May’s policies are equally outrageous but are doing nothing to improve the country. A bit like Turnbull here.

  42. Tim Beshara ‏
    @Tim_Beshara

    Our Launceston electorate office has been been plastered with neo-Nazi stickers

    Maker Mayek #AfricanGangs‏ @MakMayek · 20h20 hours ago

    Maker Mayek #AfricanGangs
    These images are terrifying. In the 21st Century Australia, we shouldn’t be seeing this at all. That’s why it frightens me to hear responsible government ministers and political leaders make utterances that enliven this level of bigotry. I hope this serves as a reminder to them.

    It has been reported to the AFP.

  49. Shane Bazzi‏Verified account
    @shanebazzi

    .@AusBorderForce says 32 boats carrying 800 people have been intercepted and turned back since December 2013. The last boat intercepted was in December 2017. 29 Sri Lankans were on board and returned to Sri Lanka. Shameful. #estimates

    …

    Shane Bazzi‏Verified account @shanebazzi · 14h14 hours ago

    .@SenatorHume and Pezzullo now spreading the lie that it has been 3.5 years since a boat arrived, only moments after Osborne told them that 32 boats have arrived since December 2013, with 1 boat arriving as recently as December 2017. #estimates

    Can’t Dutton be accused of misleading the House??

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