ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. CTar1 @ #1150 Monday, February 26th, 2018 – 9:07 pm

    Steve777

    On another topic, I note that some posters’ user names appear on this blog in blue, for example GG, while most of us appear in basic black. Why is that? Are the ‘blues’ a better class of poster?

    I think it’s due to nominating a website when you originally registered on PB.

    Posting now as a not logged-in commentor offers you an option of putting in a web site address

    Wrong.

    Blue is for boys.

    Black is for everyone else that can’t sort out their sexuality!

  5. The names in blue are a hyperlink. In the dashboard you can specify where you want that link to go to. Mine goes to my Twitter profile, but you can set it up to link to a Facebook page or your own personal website if you have one.

  6. Barnaby Joyce isn’t fit to be Churchill’s bootlace!

    The only thing they have in common is that both their political careers are dead as a dodo.

  10. Lee says:
    Monday, February 26, 2018 at 9:24 pm
    Latest poll for Batman as the LNP leading ALP 53/47 and they will win on 17 March and there majority will be 2 seats

    I’m less than reassured by this forecast… 🙁

  11. Thank you for the answers everyone
    —–
    On the Second Anendment, I suppose, like our citizenship provisions, it decides what the High Court decides it means if anyone successfully brings a case.

    It seems to be related to citizen militias, not individual armouries. If there’s no organised (and ‘well ordered’) local militia, maybe there’s no right.

    And what sort of weapons? Guns obviously. What about swords? Clubs? Knives and daggers? Bombs? Private stores of high explosives? Do US citizens have the right to stockpile radioactive material or lethal pathogens to develop nuclear, radiological or biological weapons?

  14. C@t:

    You don’t think Barnaby could stage a comeback? He’s 50 years old which is practically pre-pubescent for a coalition MP.

  15. Boerwar

    Meh, at my high school we had 15 of the first pic and 700 of the second in the “school armoury” !! School cadets was a bit more serious there 🙂
    g
    .

  16. Compare sour faced Barnyard stewing on the backbench with fellow angry prunes like Abbott, with our Sam Dastayari -who is proving there is life after Parliament. Parkes, NSW,January 2018

  21. Mr Joyce was in the pink of health on the back row of the Nationals leadership announcement this am.

    Well, maybe not so much pink as a sort of under-saturated beetroot.

    His facial features were all quivery as you might expect because on this day he went from $400,000 a year to about half that and he had not quite finalized his life’s work, which was to destroy the Murray Darling Basin.

  23. ‘The president’s personal pilot is on the administration’s short list to head the Federal Aviation Administration. Trump has told a host of administration officials and associates that he wants John Dunkin — his longtime personal pilot, who flew him around the country on Trump Force One during the campaign — to helm the agency, which has a budget in the billions and which oversees all civil aviation in the United States.

    Presumably his golf caddy is also in line for a high powered government job somewhere.

  25. And Barnyard today, he is looking quite stressed and unwell

    He really does need to lay off the grog. I thought, seeing him in recent pressers that maybe he’d gone on the wagon, but obviously he’d worn makeup or something.

    Look at his eyes, that isn’t the picture of good health.

  26. C@t:

    The Nats leadership has always failed to meet expectations. I expect more of the same, whether it be MickMack or Barnaby or Christensen or whomever else the sheep dredge up as their shepherd.

  27. Confessions @ #1176 Monday, February 26th, 2018 – 9:48 pm

    C@t:

    The Nats leadership has always failed to meet expectations. I expect more of the same, whether it be MickMack or Barnaby or Christensen or whomever else the sheep dredge up as their shepherd.

    However, as that return would see him as Deputy PM and Acting Prime Minister again, I don’t think it should be allowed, otherwise it sends a message to the world that Australia doesn’t mind having rorters and rooters running us!

  28. Good pic of Joyce…the face of demotion. He has been tumbled out of the citadel. Furthermore, he must know he has next to no chance of restoration. He’s now a barnacle.

  31. ratsak

    We had plenty of 22s down the firing range . The golfers wandering down the next door golf club’s 18th fairway behind it were a brave bunch . Our school charter had as an aim “the provision of officers for the defence of Empire” 😆

  33. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, February 26, 2018 at 9:52 pm

    He will be treated to some anti-fouling prior to the next survey of that old river barge, The Gnat 🙂

  36. Interesting.

    Amid the turmoil of the leadership change, Mr McCormack, a 53-year-old former journalist based in Wagga Wagga, assumed Mr Joyce’s cabinet-level port folios of Infrastructure and Transport, but is yet to name his replacement in Veterans Affairs.
    One option is the simple elevation of former cabinet minister Darren Chester to the post. However, he might yet be elevated back into cabinet.
    Such a move would require removing one of the Nationals’ current entitlement to five cabinet ministers, with the most likely being close Joyce loyalist, Matt Canavan.

    Canavan for the high jump to bring Chester back!

  38. CTar1 says:
    Monday, February 26, 2018 at 9:53 pm
    porot1

    We had a few knackered SMLEs that had been done over to fire .22s.
    ——

    Same here. Morris tubes I think they were called.

  40. The Libs will not spare Joyce. He has knocked 100s of thousands of votes off the top-line. They will make sure his sacrifice is complete.

  41. Watching Jeremy Corbyn delivering speech (on Guardian website) – his delivery and presence has improved dramatically from last year’s election. Very engaging. Labour backing remaining in the customs union with the EU will likely result in May having a big loss in Parliament (with moderate Tories backing Labour, Lib Dems and SNP). This could be the end of May (in March!).

    Interesting that NSW election is March 23, 2019. Brexit date is March 29, 2019.

  42. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, February 26, 2018 at 10:03 pm
    Interesting.

    Amid the turmoil of the leadership change, Mr McCormack, a 53-year-old former journalist based in Wagga Wagga, assumed Mr Joyce’s cabinet-level port folios of Infrastructure and Transport, but is yet to name his replacement in Veterans Affairs.
    One option is the simple elevation of former cabinet minister Darren Chester to the post. However, he might yet be elevated back into cabinet.
    Such a move would require removing one of the Nationals’ current entitlement to five cabinet ministers, with the most likely being close Joyce loyalist, Matt Canavan.
    Canavan for the high jump to bring Chester back!

    Apparently Chester marshalled the numbers for McCormack. If so, he is likely to be rewarded.

  44. One question is whether Barnaby now cares much about preserving the government’s one seat majority, or whether he will turn up irregularly using the impending birth as an excuse.

  46. citizen @ #1173 Monday, February 26th, 2018 – 5:45 pm

    ‘The president’s personal pilot is on the administration’s short list to head the Federal Aviation Administration. Trump has told a host of administration officials and associates that he wants John Dunkin — his longtime personal pilot, who flew him around the country on Trump Force One during the campaign — to helm the agency, which has a budget in the billions and which oversees all civil aviation in the United States.

    Presumably his golf caddy is also in line for a high powered government job somewhere.

    Rec., Sport and National Parks!!! 🙂

  48. Steve77 @ 9:28pm

    Yes, the Second Amendment is not breached by the US Federal Government banning citizens owning machine guns (in almost all cases), bazookas, artillery etc.

    Banning military-style semi-automatic assault weapons is possible, and would not contravene the Constitution.

  49. poroti – I was left alone for a few minutes with one of the cadets grotty SMLEs.

    First thing to check out was if the little cleaning storage in the butt plate had any thing in it.

    Bingo! One brass oil bottle, one pull through and cleaning swabs.

    Pocketed, of course.

    My father pleased with these when I went home at end of term.

  50. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    9m9 minutes ago

    Awesome watching AC Grayling on #QandA

    I’m finding this new, public broadcaster spruiking PvO somewhat disorienting! First Insiders, then the Drum, now Qanda.

    I’ll bet he’s never tweeted so much ABC content in his entire time on twitter.

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