Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Nearly two-thirds of respondents want Barnaby Joyce out as Nationals leader, as the Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull lose their gains from the year’s first poll a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47, after its first new poll for the year a fortnight ago had it down to 52-48. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, with Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, and One Nation bouncing back three points after a recent slump to 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-31 to 40-33. All we have in terms of leadership approval at this stage are that Malcolm Turnbull’s net rating has weakened from minus 13% to minus 18%. Also featured is a finding that 65% of respondents believe Barnaby Joyce should resign as leader of the Nationals, which breaks down into a lot of detail I’m finding hard to parse from Simon Benson’s report in The Australian. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1632.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval 54%; Bill Shorten is steady on 34% approval and up two on disapproval to 54%. Only 23% agreed that Barnaby Joyce should remain Nationals leader, with 29% favouring him resigning from the front bench, 15% bowing out at the next election, and 21% quitting parliament immediately. The poll also finds 64% support for a ban on sexual relations between politicians and their employees, with 25% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. “Marco Rubio is a very good politician”
    maybe as a politician as a person, imho no more than a corrupt climate denying a…hole.
    Hopefully in the future this type of politician will be charged with crimes against humanity

  2. CTar1

    Just spent a few weeks of Excel joy . Not elegant I’m sure but it bloody well works and “madness” at times was a feature for this rank amateur 🙂 But joy oh joy at all the things that are now at ones finger tips.

    Happy memories
    =IFERROR(INDEX($AL$2:$AL$1500, MATCH(0, COUNTIF($AS$1:AS1, $AL$2:$AL$1500&””) + IF($AL$2:$AL$1500=””,1,0), 0)), “”)
    .
    =IF(D14=””,””,INDEX(DATAMATCH!$B$2:$B$1208,MATCH(1,(Current_Week_Production!D14=DATAMATCH!$D$2:$D$1208)*(Current_Week_Production!E14=DATAMATCH!$E$2:$E$1208)*(Current_Week_Production!F14=DATAMATCH!$F$2:$F$1208),0)))

  3. The ALP is in a poll winning position- and has been for most of his time as leader – because of Shorten.

    By normal political standards, the ALP’s performance at the last election was a blinder.

    Labor shouldn’t have come close. A party which was divided, which had seen major talent walk out the door, and which had been left with some untenable political positions and various bits of unwanted baggage due to the RGR wars should have been facing Opposition for at least a decade. It certainly shouldn’t have been in striking distance of winning.

    Of course Abbott helped. So did Turnbull. But if Labor hadn’t been seen as a genuine alternative, then any poll losses caused by those charmers would have gone straight to the minors, and we’d be seeing the Greens and PHON with huge first preference votes.

    Shorten has been able to unite his team, promote and nurture talent, and work his way through some very contentious policy issues whilst still gaining votes for his party (which counts far more than PPM or personal satisfaction ratings).

    Remember how the pundits wagged their heads and said that it was a disaster for an Opposition Leader to go to an election with a full suite of policies spelt out and costed? I’d like to see a few articles on why that was wrong…

  4. Matt

    I agree with you. As I said an indefensible position. Just like with climate deniers.

    I don’t think he is courageous for being there or anything like that. Just that he is good at what he does.

    The fact no one is buying in the audience tonight of the onscreen crowd shows the NRA talking points he is using are now failing.

  5. rossmcg

    My father taught in a high school for a few years. Taken on as a music teacher, he was naturally given other subjects as well (“the good old days”).

    He suffered very badly from migraines, brought on by any bright light, so often wore dark glasses.
    It worked like a charm as the kids never knew exactly where he was looking. I believe his discipline was faultless!!

  6. rossmcg

    Haul included AR15s

    It’s unusual. Most of what you see in the papers/TV is a very motley collection of sawn off shotguns and old WWII Webleys pistols (not exactly ‘concealable’ at about a foot long).

    I hope cops and others spent time to establish where they came from. Over the years some AR-15 rifles have been ‘lost’ by police here and both rifles and RPGs by the Military.

  7. Watching the town hall forum.
    In order for real change to occur, it is going to require a sustained and determined campaign. Otherwise it will just be the rethugs throwing a few morsels as appeasement

  9. CTar1

    This was way back in 2006 but the quantities are !!!

    Another big security breach is unfolding in Victoria. A 53-year-old Puckapunyal sergeant, whose surname was given only as Read, has been charged with firearms, theft and dishonesty offences. Police and army personnel have removed truckloads of weapons and ordnance from his home, his parents’ home, and other properties since Monday.

    Discrepancies in Defence inventories involving hundreds of millions of dollars worth of military equipment have been revealed in Parliament.

    But a day after the Herald revealed NSW police were searching for eight rocket launchers – which it suspects were stolen from the army – the Defence Force refused to release any details yesterday.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/be-alarmed-armys-lost-weapons-fiasco/2006/12/15/1166162322935.html

  11. Just back from watching my friend carry the baton 200m. She was great, choosing to jog rather than walk, meaning the security decal around her had to run too. A momentous occasion for her.

  14. Guytaur
    There seems to be just something different going on now in the US over gun ownership that I have never felt before? It might not be this recent shooting, but I think the majority of the US public have lost patience. IF and its a big IF the democrats run the anti gun line I think they might just coincide with a huge movement…..

  15. Shorten has certainly been an effective leader of the ALP the vast majority of his time as leader. He certainly would make a better PM than any of the Coalition.

  18. Matt

    Yes. This is Sandy Hook kids with voices is how I see it.

    What we expected then is happening now.

    Sorry that sounds crass but this whole US gun debate has been crass.

  22. Tom the first and best @ #2064 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 1:46 pm

    Shorten has certainly been an effective leader of the ALP the vast majority of his time as leader. He certainly would make a better PM than any of the Coalition.

    And, isn’t that the point? It’s either Bill Shorten or Malcolm Turnbull next time. No one else. So all the aspersions cast about Bill are just BS.

  24. Much as I hate to support anything Abbott proposes, if the Young Liberals hate the idea then it might be worth considering …

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-off-the-mark-in-arguing-against-immigration-20180221-p4z14m.html

    The only party I know of that supports a dramatically lower immigration is Sustainable Australia (http://www.sustainableaustralia.org.au) and they do so mainly for environmental reasons rather than economic reasons.

    Does anyone know much about them, or know of any mainstream party that proposes to lower our immigration rate dramatically (One Notion excluded, please)?

  25. williamlegate: OHHHHHH SHIT: “Can you tell me right now that you won’t accept a single donation from the NRA?”

    *crowd goes wild*

    @cameron_caskey

  27. Ctar

    Looks like it has been a detailed inquiry. Seizure was last October and charges only laid today.

    Given the location of the traffic stop I would think the weapons might have been brought in through a Pilbara port and were headed south or there were some gun people in the North who wanted something bigger and better to have fun with.

  29. Victoria

    Very smart of the survivor organisers and backers to go after NRA funding.

    They are making the NRA toxic and a vote loser by doing so.

  30. Vic
    I wish they would wake up to the Nexus between the Koch brothers (and other fossil fuel companies) and elected officials also. In fact I wish Australian Citizenry would too………….

  37. Yep, Zoomster.

    That’s what I think and like so much about Shorten.

    It’s not all about him, it’s a team.

    The Shadows have their responsibilities and go out and develop policy.

    He is more about the big picture and how Labor’s policies are aimed at achieving these goals leaving the small details to the relevant Shadow.

  39. Meanwhile, Tony Abbott (Tony who?) is using his Facebook page to shitcan Scott Morrison over immigration numbers…. and revealing Cabinet deliberations to boot.

    Tony Abbott
    2 hrs ·
    Scott Morrison has conveniently forgotten the very vigorous discussion about cutting immigration that took place inside government in early 2015 as part of the budget process.
    Because we were achieving a reduction anyway I eventually decided not to adjust the official figure but I kept it on the table as I never accepted the Treasury orthodoxy that more migrants meant more growth and a stronger budget outcome.
    If Treasury is right why not solve the deficit simply by ramping up immigration?
    I repeat, we should not let Treasury’s accounting rules stop the government from acting in our medium term national interests and Scott should have the gumption to think for himself.

  40. Albo couldn’t have done what Shorten has – he doesn’t have the same skill set, by a long way.

    Shorten is more Hawke, Albo more Beasley.

    On ‘weapons in the classroom’ – when I was waiting for my hip replacement, I was genuinely touched at the respectful way students treated me. After all, I couldn’t walk from one end of the classroom to the other without great difficulty.

    When I said this to one of my classes, they pointed out I was using a whacking big stick to get around.

  41. Matt @ #2061 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 12:46 pm

    Guytaur
    There seems to be just something different going on now in the US over gun ownership that I have never felt before? It might not be this recent shooting, but I think the majority of the US public have lost patience. IF and its a big IF the democrats run the anti gun line I think they might just coincide with a huge movement…..

    MMatt

    Yes this time does seem a bit different.

    Not sure if it will last, but it certainly seems stronger. I could not believe that after Sandy Hook nothing happened. This time perhaps.

  48. sprocket_ @ #2088 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 2:04 pm

    Meanwhile, Tony Abbott (Tony who?) is using his Facebook page to shitcan Scott Morrison over immigration numbers…. and revealing Cabinet deliberations to boot.
    …
    “If Treasury is right why not solve the deficit simply by ramping up immigration?”

    Yes, I think Abbott might have hit a nerve here. Growth achieved through immigration doesn’t really make sense.

  49. Its not just us sensing a change

    RepTimRyan: These students are changing the country, and the world. Their courage is so heartening. #CNNTownHall

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