Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

No change on voting intention from Essential Research, as respondents reject the government’s stance on company tax cuts.

No change this week on Essential Research’s two-party preferred result, which shows Labor maintaining a two-party lead of 54-46, although as usual we’ll have to wait until later today for primary votes. The pollster’s monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull with 39% approval (up one) and 42% disapproval (down three), while Bill Shorten is on 33% approval (also up one) and 46% disapproval (also down three), and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-47, down from 42-25 last time. As related by The Guardian, the poll finds 72% supporting company tax cuts being made conditional on pay rises; more disagreeing than agreeing that company tax cuts would lead to higher wages without prompting; most disagreeing that penalty rate cuts would encourage companies to hire more workers. A series of questions on the proposed Adani coal mine found 48% saying it should be assessed on its economic and environmental merits, 22% saying coal mining in the Galilee basin should be banned, and 13% saying all mines should go ahead subject to environmental approvals.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,719 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. What if a minister sleeps with another minister?

    What if the PM sleeps with a backbencher?

    What if the Minister for Urban Affairs has it off with their shadow minister?

    Are these okay by the Ministerial standards?

  2. Turnbull today had his chance to stand up and thwart Joyce, New England, and the Nationals. Turnbull had his chance to put the boot in when mostly everyone was willing it. At 8.39am this morning I believed I used the words ‘gutless wonder’ and hasn’t Turnbull obliged. The Senate had to do his job for him.
    Barnaby’s best option if Gina hasn’t injured herself laughing, is WA, the boondocks, on one of the newly acquired cattle stations with a pub nearby so the grey army can come and have a photo taken with Barnaby’s growing family. Imagine if the Nationals were still called the Country Party!
    Does Vikki have a ‘cooling clause’ in her contract?

  3. Sam Maiden says relationship between Turnbull and Joyce has irretrievably broken down. And Turnbull would be hoping that Joyce now resigns, but it may not happen. This is a clusterf@@k

  4. Clearly the government is dysfunctional. But we knew that in Mid 2016. The MSM seems to have not clued in, and they watch the govt more than we do!

  5. Also Sam Maiden heard rumours that Turnbull had a couple of ministers in his office today and told them if they were engaged in sexual relations with their staff to desist or look for another job. She qualified by saying she hasn’t been able to confirm this has occurred. @facepalm@

  6. ‘Turnbull said it didn’t matter if the minister was married or not. No sex with the staff.’

    He went on to say ‘Don’t get your meat where you get your bread and butter’

  7. Turnbull’s edict means Parliament House will probably start employing a few morality inspectors, like the post war beach inspectors in Australia:

  8. Sam Maiden says theres no sex ban on ministers having sex with other ministers staff.

    I think that is open to interpretation, Turnbull said a minister and a staff, not a minister and their staff. A staff would imply any staff member, presumably also a staff member from another party.

  9. c@t

    Sam Maiden was talking with Peta Credlin on Sky, and it was agreed by them that BJoyce could return from gardening leave and not resign. What is Turnbull to do then? What a frickin joke

  10. If it’s only ministers, there’ll be a few choices to make.
    “Do I want to carry on bonking my adviser (who happens to be my wife) or would I like a pay rise as minister for dogs’ breakfasts?”

  11. A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.

    “I am very confident we will be able to see a disciplined approach to teamwork within the Coalition,” Malcolm Turnbull said on December 3

    “Having Barnaby back as [the Nationals] leader is obviously very important.”

  12. ‘But Mal.’
    ‘Don’t you Mal me Barnaby. How dare you make me look like a spineless fucktard in front of the entire nation’
    ‘Fuckwit’
    ‘What?’
    ‘Spineless Fuckwit… not fucktard’
    ‘Oh Shut up’

  13. lizzie says:
    Thursday, February 15, 2018 at 5:44 pm
    Above table:
    A Brand New ReachTell Poll Just Released For New England And Bonking Barney Is SCREWED 15 Feb – 2018

    ____________

    No.

    The fine print says he would win 52 – 48 after the distribution of preferences.

  14. Rossmcg says:
    Thursday, February 15, 2018 at 5:55 pm
    Simon Katich

    I worked with a guy from Armidale. He reckoned Guyra, just up the road, was colder.

    ___________________

    Your work colleague was dead right.

  15. Sky News Australia‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust · 11m11 minutes ago

    .@samanthamaiden: It doesn’t pass the ‘Pub Test’ that a bloke on $400,000 a year can’t afford to pay his own rent, it is entirely peculiar.

  16. ides

    like most policy on the run, there will be a lot of “what ifs” associated with the ministerial bonking ban.

    I reckon there will be a few MPs, ministers and backbenchers alike, considering their positions vis a vis relationships over the next few weeks.

    They might decided that a bit of comfort on a cold Canberra night might not be worth the trouble. At least until things quieten down a bit.

  17. Barrie Cassidy‏Verified account @barriecassidy · 56m56 minutes ago

    Now that affairs between ministers and staff breach the code do journalists now have an obligation to chase down this stuff? Just asking.

  18. Trog Sorrenson Thursday, February 15th, 2018 – 3:35 pm Comment #2166

    Satellite internet is about to get a kick along. SpaceX to launch 2 demonstration satellites, of what will become an array of over 4000 in low earth orbit.

    Musk showing his ‘smarts’ in recognising possibilities to ‘leverage’ new products off the back of his existing ones. A true ‘entrepreneur’ in action. He’ll launch these quite small satellites for ‘free’ while he launches big ones for other enterprises.

  19. @barriecassidy
    Now that affairs between ministers and staff breach the code do journalists now have an obligation to chase down this stuff? Just asking.

  20. steve davis says:
    Thursday, February 15, 2018 at 6:35 pm
    I think anyone who stood for the Nationals in New England would win nowadays.

    ___________________________

    That’s the way it has always been – Tony Windsor looks like the exception, but he was originally in the Nationals, and was seen here as the National you have when you don’t have a National.

    When he ran as an independent for NE, he had the weak opponent of Stuart St Clair as the National to beat, and since this gentleman was not at all highly regarded after his one term, Tony wiped the floor with him. First time since 1922 that the seat was not in Country Party or National hands.

    The rest you know.

  21. Stephen Dziedzic‏ @stephendziedzic · 12m12 minutes ago

    I’m fairly certain @Paul_Karp just told Mark Dreyfus that “we (the media) can find the rooters for you”

  22. PeeBee says:
    Thursday, February 15, 2018 at 6:44 pm
    Don, Guyra…… Rings a bell….. Something about a dam and a meteorite. Was that a hoax or did they find something?

    _____________________

    You’ve got a good memory! Not much news ever comes out of Guyra, except for jokes at the locals’ expense.

    #UFOsonPB

    http://www.unexplainedaustralia.com/25-ufo-s-aliens/86-the-guyra-dam-mystery

    ___________________________________________
    On the 8th of December 1999 a Unidentified flying object slammed into a dam in the small town of Guyra NSW. It is believed that the object hit the dam between Monday 6 December and midday, Wednesday 8 December. The object flattened the reeds in an area approximately 15 metres long by six metres wide which was discovered by a local council employee.

    Theories ran wild about what the object could have been from a UFO, space junk, a meteorite, a NASA probe back from Mars, frozen sewage or simply a hoax. The water supply was cut off to stop possible contamination as the dam is the towns only drinking water source.

    According to researchers the object had a 45 degree angle of entry, no-one in the town heard a sonic boom or explosion, the surface had burn marks, reeds were flattened but not broken, mud was splashed around the area and the object may have even skipped on the water before entering the dam.

    On Thursday, December 9, 1999, divers entered the lake behind the Guyra dam “to test for toxins or radioactive material.”

    On Friday 10 December, 1999

    Police divers finished their work in Guyra Dam. The divers recovered sediment and fragments believed to be from the object. The sediments were tested by geologists on-site and the geologists have advised police they believe sediment was from a small meteorite the size of a golf ball.

    The meteorite apparently penetrated the mud at the bottom of the dam and is now embedded about four metres into soft granite and is unable to be moved.

  23. They’re going to create a whole new department for the Bonk Ban. The Bonker Force.
    Lots of overtime standing outside Ministerial offices with a glass on the door, or across from hotel rooms where Ministers are staying, with a telescope. The new uniform will be a raincoat.
    🙂

  24. Malcolm should take a turn at stand-up comedy. Journos are really enjoying themselves this evening.

    Paul Syvret‏Verified account @PSyvret · 1h1 hour ago

    How will PM Turnbull’s #BonkBan actually be enforced? Will Peter Dutton’s Home Affairs fiefdom form a paramilitary Bonker Force squad?

  25. don @ #2485 Thursday, February 15th, 2018 – 6:52 pm

    PeeBee says:
    Thursday, February 15, 2018 at 6:44 pm
    Don, Guyra…… Rings a bell….. Something about a dam and a meteorite. Was that a hoax or did they find something?

    _____________________

    You’ve got a good memory! Not much news ever comes out of Guyra, except for jokes at the locals’ expense.

    The meteorite apparently penetrated the mud at the bottom of the dam and is now embedded about four metres into soft granite and is unable to be moved.

    “Soft granite” never heard of it. The granite I am familiar with is a very hard rock.

  26. Denise Scott
    Denise Scott
    @_denisescott
    ·
    1h
    Good luck with the new rule banning our govt leaders from bonking staff members cos I’m pretty sure Barnaby ‘s wife had that same rule and look how well it was heeded.
    14
    172
    588

  27. Bemused:

    “Soft granite” never heard of it. The granite I am familiar with is a very hard rock.

    __________________________

    Granite that has started decomposing gets soft.

    When I was a kid we always had decomposed granite as the top surface for tennis courts. Worked a treat.

    From Dr Google:

    _____________

    Decomposed granite is rock of granitic origin that has weathered to the point that it readily fractures into smaller pieces of weak rock. Further weathering produces rock that easily crumbles into mixtures of gravel-sized particles, sand, and silt-sized particles with some clay.

  28. “Today, in 2018, it is not acceptable for a minister to have a sexual relationship with somebody who works for them, it is a very bad workplace practice and everybody knows that no good comes of it,” he said. ”

    So the ban only applies to staff working for the minister.

    And Turnbull drops another bucket of shit on Joyce, his new partner and their expected baby saying no good comes from it. If I was Joyce I’d snot him, if I was Joyce’s partner I’d ask why he hadn’t snotted him.

    But it appears was wrong when Joyces partner was his staffer but ok when she was working for other ministers.

  29. This is another coalition privatisation by stealth, just like Medicare, the various professional services in Fyshwyck will now much busier.

    This must have been on that IPA list.

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