The Courier-Mail today has the first Queensland state poll since the November election, conducted by YouGov Galaxy from the same sample as the federal poll published on Saturday. It finds both major parties gaining about equally from a decline in support for One Nation, with Labor at 37% (up from 35.4% at the election), the Liberal National Party on 36% (up from 33.7%), the Greens on 10% (unchanged) and One Nation on 10% (down from 13.7%). Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 51.2-48.8 at the election. Deb Frecklington’s debut result on the question of preferred premier has her trailing Annastacia Palaszczuk 42-31, which compares with Tim Nicholls’ deficit of 43-29 at the beginning of November. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 860.
Leaves me thinking the recent YouGov federal poll is wrong.
This weeks Newspoll and the following weeks Essential will be useful pointers in picking up any hiccups or showing a continuing unchanged story.
I reckon nothing will change polling wise, and the shenanigans over Joyce will make it worse down the track.
This Parliamentary session’s plan to kill Bill is in tatters, with no immediate opportunity for a reset.
Sic transit Gloria Mundi!
Does this use preferences from the 2017 election?
Ha, ha, ha…. good try YouGov Galaxy!… Qld State support for Labor, now that the state election is over and Labor won…. in conjunction with a Federal support for the LNP in Queensland….
You guys are so funny…. and so desperate…..
In the meantime, the political noose is tightening around Joyce’s “neck”…. taking Turnbull down with him….. Can anybody urgently call Lynton Crosby to please provide a “dead cat strategy” to get the Coalition out of this complete mess?…. If he can, of course, but I doubt that there is any way back, whether the cat thrown on the table is dead or alive….
It does seem at first glance that YouGov have brought their dubious polling skills from the UK, and imposed them on Galaxy. I trust you’re watching Will, and assessing how much weight to give them?
These polls look perfectly reasonable to me. A slight pick up for state Labor after their state election win, and federal labor about 4% lower in QLD then state labor, which would be about the usual difference. It may even be flattering to the feds.
Having looked back at the past four elections, year on year, but with federal elections having being held one year after the QLD elections in each case, the state ALP 2PP vote compared to the federal result in QLD has been 2006-7, +4.6%, 2009-10, +6.1%, 2012-13, -5.8%, 2015-16, +5.2%.
2PP results for QLD state elections for 2004, 2001, and 1998 do not seem to be available (at least they were not calculated by the ECQ) but the federal results were 42.9%, 45.1%, and 46.9% respectively.
Peter Beattie had thumping wins in 2004 and 2001, and a narrow win in 1998, so over the past twenty years the state ALP vote would probably be upwards of 5% more then the federal ALP vote in QLD.
Yeah, with the exception of the tail-end of the Bligh era and Newman’s honeymoon, state Labor has almost always performed better then federal Labor in Queensland. They have, after all, been in power in QLD for all but 5 of the last 28 years.