YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Another better poll result for the government, this time from Queensland, which finds the swing to Labor at an almost-manageable 2%.

Today’s Courier-Mail has a YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland which gives the Coalition one of its best poll results in some time, crediting them with a 52-48 lead. This represents a two-party swing to Labor of only 2.1% since the 2016 election, although it’s only one point better than in the previous Queensland poll by Galaxy in August last year. The poll also provides further evidence that One Nation has gone off the boil, their primary vote of 9% being three points down on August. The Coalition is up four to 41% (compared with 43.2% at the election), Labor is steady on 32% (30.9% at the election), and the Greens are up three to 10% (8.8% at the election).

A perfectly even split of opinion is recorded on the Adani coal mine, with support and opposition both at 41%. This breaks down to 43-38 against in south-east Queensland, and 45-37 in favour in the rest of the state. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 860.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,108 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Passengers have been told not to travel to London City airport until further notice after a world war two ordnance was discovered in the river Thames near the runway.

    The Royal Navy and the Metropolitan police have created a 214 metre exclusion zone around George V dock in east London, which was heavily bombed during the second world war, following the discovery of the ordnance during pre-planned work at the airport on Sunday morning.

    The airport has closed and severe disruption is expected to affect inbound and outbound flights on Monday while engineers remove the device. Passengers have been told to contact their airline before travelling.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/12/london-city-airport-closed-after-wwii-bomb-found-in-thames?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=263693&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

  2. With hindsight, it appears that there should have been 2 challengers to Rudd. An initial challenger, either a back-bencher or a disgruntled resigning minister, to outline the problem and required change at the Lodge and take the main heat of forcing a challenge and a second more senior challenger to actually win the leadership ballot. Gillard would have made a good second challenger.

  3. davidwh @ #1687 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 3:05 pm

    A partner is someone you live with in an open relationship.

    That is pretty irrelevant in this case. The fact is that if there is a personal relationship and public money and public employment are used inappropriately to benefit a person because of that personal relationship, then something stinks and it is unacceptable to the voting public.

    Fine distinctions between what is the definition of ‘partner’ may work a treat when someone is charged with fraud or a criminal offence, but in the court of public opinion it doesn’t matter one hoot, except for the fact that a lot of people (perhaps the silent majority) will be unimpressed with the way that Barnyard has treated his family on top of an apparently gross abuse of public office.

  4. Departing Swan takes aim at Coalition “right wing thugs” over carbon price

    “The substantial increase in power bills today we are seeing is a consequence of Labor’s policy being removed and of the conservatives engaging in denial of climate change and trying to destroy the renewable energy industry. That’s policy regret number one.”

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/departing-swan-takes-aim-at-coalition-right-wing-thugs-over-carbon-price-54126/

  5. Ratsack I agree that if the change in position came with an inappropriate pay rise then Joyce has a problem. However there has been a bit of innacurate reporting over this so we will have to wait and see what did happen.

    The change in position is not a problem in my opinion and was the correct thing to do as long as there is no more to it.

  6. Trog Sorrenson @ #1091 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 3:30 pm

    Departing Swan takes aim at Coalition “right wing thugs” over carbon price

    “The substantial increase in power bills today we are seeing is a consequence of Labor’s policy being removed and of the conservatives engaging in denial of climate change and trying to destroy the renewable energy industry. That’s policy regret number one.”

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/departing-swan-takes-aim-at-coalition-right-wing-thugs-over-carbon-price-54126/

    It was Rudd that terminated it.

  7. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/bill-shorten-queries-barnaby-joyce-partners-promotion/news-story/c91234a15a9df182a353a2bbfaf1e747

    Now of course it’s The Australian so I never implicitly trust anything in it…

    But the report is not just that she was moved to a newly created job in Canavan’s office, but that it was a significant promotion.

    It has also been reported that Barnaby was initially unwilling to let his squeeze go.

    So was the promotion the quid pro quo? Did the Beetrooter demand his new lover (who was not his partner oh no siree) cop an nice extra kick in the sky rocket as the price of him moving her down the hall a bit?

    As we’ve mentioned before a straight swap for another Minister’s advisor at the same pay and role is completely defensible. But if as reported this was in essence a bonus windfall which could obviously have no justification beyond making Barnyard happy then he’s as gone as gone gets.

    Trumble is an imbecile to be allowing himself to be so closely tied to the Beetrooter. ‘Not his partner’ FMD. Do these dopes have no one to stop them making fools of themselves?

  8. Greg Brown

    Verified account

    @gregbrown_TheOz
    18m18 minutes ago
    More
    Labor launches QT assault on Joyce. Peppers him with tough questions on his infrastructure portfolio and exposes him as being distracted #auspol

    1 reply 13 retweets 11 likes
    Reply 1

  9. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, February 12, 2018 at 3:36 pm

    The wreckage that is the energy market is the responsibility of your sponsors at Menzies House.

  10. Pyne was whinging this morning on local ABC radio about how Adelaide Rundle Mall was dead quiet on a Saturday morning. All SA ALP fault.

    The ruddy useless ‘journo’ interviewer completely failed to link it to low wage growth or any other federal policy failure.

    Instead he backed up the Pye-ain with stats that 18-21 year old SA’s all want to leave the state.

    Hopeless ABC.

  11. Sharri Markson

    Verified account

    @SharriMarkson
    2h2 hours ago
    More
    She was five months pregnant and spent the Christmas holidays with Barnaby Joyce, but Malcolm Turnbull claims Vikki Campion was not his partner and therefore he was not in breach of the Ministerial Code of Conduct

  12. Turnbull has no real control over who his deputy is although that will be lost or ignored by the public.

    No not directly. But if the Leader of the Nats is engaging in behaviour that is likely to significantly damage the Coalition he has the authority to pull them in and explain a few facts to them. Trumble has quite a reputation for explaining such things in shall we say passionate and colourful ways.

    If the Leader of the Nats is engaging in behaviour that is borderline corrupt, then the PM is duty bound to make it clear to him and enough senior Nats to ensure the message gets through that it is time for the Nats leader to go and spend more time with one or the other of his families.

    It is a gross failure of Leadership from Trumble that rather than doing this he has enabled Joyce. But then gross failure of Leadership is pretty much a defining feature of Trumble.

  13. I find the inquisition into Pyne’s sexuality irrelevant and problematic.

    FWIW, firstly, I hear he is a devoted family man. Secondly I have heard some thugs thought he was gay during his school days and immediately post school days – but we should not give two hoots what these types (probably closet gays now inhabiting an ultra conservative quasi religious sect political party) thought of Pyne.

  14. Barnaby can see the Border of Corrupt from his property ‘that’s not much use for anything’. You know, the one with all the CSG under it. 🙂

  15. Victoria why for expressing an opinion?

    Let the opposition and press continue to dig and let the cards fall where they do but at least base it on facts rather than assumptions.

  16. “Queensland’s electoral commissioner Walter van der Merwe has been suspended immediately by the state’s Attorney-General over “serious allegations” which she says could amount to misbehaviour under the electoral act.”

    Please tell me Walter van der Merwe hasn’t fallen afoul of S44?!!

  17. Simon Katich @ #1729 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 3:52 pm

    I find the inquisition into Pyne’s sexuality irrelevant and problematic.

    FWIW, firstly, I hear he is a devoted family man. Secondly I have heard some thugs thought he was gay during his school days and immediately post school days – but we should not give two hoots what these types (probably closet gays now inhabiting an ultra conservative quasi religious sect political party) thought of Pyne.

    Exactly. Plenty a man plays both sides of the street, and no one really cares. Especially if he is a good man to his family.

  18. Sexy,

    It was Rudd that terminated it.

    My guess is he’s referring to the RET. But I’d also guess you can see whatever you want in it.

  19. Simon Katich @ #1115 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 3:52 pm

    I find the inquisition into Pyne’s sexuality irrelevant and problematic.

    FWIW, firstly, I hear he is a devoted family man. Secondly I have heard some thugs thought he was gay during his school days and immediately post school days – but we should not give two hoots what these types (probably closet gays now inhabiting an ultra conservative quasi religious sect political party) thought of Pyne.

    Well said.

    I thought we were all past this rubbish.

  20. Trog Sorrenson @ #1705 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 3:30 pm

    Departing Swan takes aim at Coalition “right wing thugs” over carbon price

    “The substantial increase in power bills today we are seeing is a consequence of Labor’s policy being removed and of the conservatives engaging in denial of climate change and trying to destroy the renewable energy industry. That’s policy regret number one.”

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/departing-swan-takes-aim-at-coalition-right-wing-thugs-over-carbon-price-54126/

    Hi Trog, I trust you saw my earlier post on Solar?
    Or maybe you were deterred by my addressing it to our resident fossil fuel enthusiast.

  21. Regarding more proportional representation over the single member system.

    An example from Qld.

    The 2016 elections resulted in the 30 MPs distributed as follows:

    LNP: 21 seats with 43% of the formal vote
    ALP: 8 seats with 31% of the vote
    Bob Katter: 1 seat with 2.73% of the vote

    The Greens got 8.83% of the vote with 0 seats
    One Nation got 5.52% of the vote with 0 seats.

    A more representative proportional system would result in, something like:

    LNP: 14 seats
    ALP: 10 seats
    Greens: 3 seats
    One Nation: 2 seats
    Family First: 1 seat

    i.e. The ‘right’ would drop from 22 seats to 17 seats;
    the ‘left’ would rise from 8 seats to 13 seats.

    I think the behaviour of MPs and the tenor of debate would be much improved if a wider range of people and parties were represented in Parliament.

  22. Does it matter if Pyne is gay?

    In light of the Joyce shenanigans it is actually an interesting question, and one I’m not sure has an easy answer.

    For instance, were it true, does that place a very different complexion on Pyne’s relationship with Ashby? Is, like Barnaby appears to be, Pyne having a relationship with someone that he is able to offer preferential treatment?

    As with Joyce, it could be that picking up that end of the thread leads in unexpected directions.

    If he is and it is another one of those common knowledge things in the CPG David Campbell might wonder about that pattern of double standards relating to Labor.

    But maybe he is and his wife is fine with it and he is very discrete and doesn’t abuse his position in any way. Or maybe it’s all just vicious muck raking.

    That’s the problem with the media culture of withholding information. We can never know what it is we don’t know or why we’re not allowed to know it.

  23. Tom

    Dropping little “I thought everybody knew” titbits is very provocative of you. 🙂 Not having any political/Canberra contacts, I live in ignorance, obviously.

  24. Barnaby Joyce has risen to a position beyond his competence and he wields far too much power.
    Barnaby should be held accountable for transfer of pests authority to Armidale, water theft in the Murray Darling Basin, promotion of Cubby Station, Shenhua, coal seam gas on the Liverpool Plains, god only knows what favours to Gina Rinehart.
    His family values hypocrisy is nauseating, trying to stop Gardasil vaccination and same sex marriage.
    He is a serial philanderer who lets pleasure guide his political decisions.
    He deserves the curtailed career that now awaits him (if there is a just God) and that baby isn’t going to be born into a good home

    I am most angry with the media. If the press gallery had reported his doings as forensically as they reported on Gillard, Thomson and Slipper he would not have been re-elected in the by-election in New England or perhaps elected in 2016

  25. lizzie @ #1743 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 4:01 pm

    Tom

    Dropping little “I thought everybody knew” titbits is very provocative of you. 🙂 Not having any political/Canberra contacts, I live in ignorance, obviously.

    Hi Liz, one of my bosses in years past used to have fortnightly meeting with DPM Tim Fischer (spelling?) and told us of things like this that he (and others) found surprising. He was especially surprised about JWH having a long time mistress.

    Tom.

  26. He’s gay, or at least same-sex attracted. I know someone who has observed him at play in his natural habitat (Adelaide).

    Not that there’s anything wrong with that – perhaps if his career had begun more recently, around the same time as ZImmerman, he wouldn’t have felt the need to conceal himself. As it is now though, if was any deeper in the closet he would be a citizen of Narnia.

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