YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Another better poll result for the government, this time from Queensland, which finds the swing to Labor at an almost-manageable 2%.

Today’s Courier-Mail has a YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland which gives the Coalition one of its best poll results in some time, crediting them with a 52-48 lead. This represents a two-party swing to Labor of only 2.1% since the 2016 election, although it’s only one point better than in the previous Queensland poll by Galaxy in August last year. The poll also provides further evidence that One Nation has gone off the boil, their primary vote of 9% being three points down on August. The Coalition is up four to 41% (compared with 43.2% at the election), Labor is steady on 32% (30.9% at the election), and the Greens are up three to 10% (8.8% at the election).

A perfectly even split of opinion is recorded on the Adani coal mine, with support and opposition both at 41%. This breaks down to 43-38 against in south-east Queensland, and 45-37 in favour in the rest of the state. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 860.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,108 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. bemsued

    Hi Trog, I trust you saw my earlier post on Solar?

    Yes I did. Encouraging news.
    As I have stated many times on this blog, technological disruption is never linear.
    On a related issue, it is perfectly feasible for SA to be on 100% renewables – or near enough – by 2025.
    If SA can do it, then the other states should be able to follow shortly after.

  2. Tom @ #1748 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 4:07 pm

    lizzie @ #1743 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 4:01 pm

    Tom

    Dropping little “I thought everybody knew” titbits is very provocative of you. 🙂 Not having any political/Canberra contacts, I live in ignorance, obviously.

    Hi Liz, one of my bosses in years past used to have fortnightly meeting with DPM Tim Fischer (spelling?) and told us of things like this that he (and others) found surprising. He was especially surprised about JWH having a long time mistress.

    Tom.

    Yeah, that’s why Hyacinth stayed at Kirribilli House and JWH went off to Canberra with his Private Secretary. 🙂

  3. Tom

    He was especially surprised about JWH having a long time mistress.

    So am I. He’s such an awkward Little Johnny. I thought Hyacinth kept him under control??!!

    Reminds me of John Major in England.

  4. Dropping little “I thought everybody knew” titbits is very provocative of you.

    I don’t know.

    Yes hints and innuendo have been about for a long time. It could be smoke from a fire, or it could just be a particularly low rent form of abuse. I don’t think it is appropriate to go from those hints and innuendos to certainty without some sort of confirmation.

    But I do think on balance that if anyone in the media has knowledge of such a secret then it should be disclosed. It doesn’t have to be a disgraceful effort like the DT’s Front Page of Ms Campion. Probably better to tell the MP in question that the press has confirmation and because of a bias to disclosure will go to print. But offer a suitable period of time for the MP involved to make any arrangements they feel are needed (ie discussing with family, making a public announcement) before doing so.

    These days with openly gay MPs in both majors and the Greens it would be very unlikely to be a significant damage to a political career unless there was a Joycian gross hypocrisy involved. People are pretty understanding mostly, they just don’t like being deceived.

    If there is no story beyond the disclosure then it will quickly move into the realms of meh! But if like Joyce it is the key to unlocking truly important information then best it is done quickly. Sure there are other bigger stories, but the media should be able to walk and chew gum. The practice of disclosure rather than concealment will do them good if nothing else.

  5. You did it Your overwhelming generosity has meant we’ve reached our target of $150,000. We are thrilled & very grateful. Thanks to your support, we will now be able to report on environmental issues like the endangered species crisis, plastic pollution and much much more. pic.twitter.com/D4nRj2X0Q5— Guardian Australia (@GuardianAus) February 12, 2018

  6. Very sly of Katharine Murphy outing Tony Smith, what did he do to deserve that?

    If that is what she was actually doing (and that would take more wit than I believe Murphy possesses) then it isn’t sly, it’s gutless.

  7. lizzie
    “I think it was a joke because of Pyne being protected by Smith in QT?”

    I agree. I think people are reading too much (or too little) into this.

  8. Is the Beetrooter now saying Campion is NOT his partner and never was?

    Betrayal upon betrayal upon betrayal.

    You would not trust this guy with a bar of soap in a shower block.

  9. Laura Tingle joins ABC as 7.30’s chief political correspondent

    My problem with Tingle (as with so many other of the CPG) is that they become talking heads. It is easy to see how the pressure of regular deadlines – to have to say something (anything) to keep the punters either reading, watching or listening – will degrade their work.

    At least she isnt holding on to her AFR role. But as 730 correspondent and a weekly column for ABC and I assume fronting LNL every week as well as guest spots on Insiders and probably the Drum and perhaps regular essays in whatever and who knows what else, it is a wonder there are enough words to go around.

  10. Robert Doyle’s resignation as mayor of Melbourne is the most serious case in Australia of a powerful man losing his job since the explosion of #metoo sexual harassment claims.

    This is a case study in exactly where we are and how far we have to go. We are in the middle of a seismic cultural shift, and it will take time and involve much ugliness and pushback before we get there. Clichés are swirling around this case and all assumptions are being challenged but are stubborn to shift – all the reasons why women have been reluctant to make complaints publicly and the claims by men that their lives are being unfairly ruined.

    To a point, one can have sympathy for Robert Doyle, but it is fading fast with his and his supporters’ actions and as more information emerges.

    But let’s have empathy. Doyle is in hospital suffering anxiety and depression, “on the brink of being broken”, according to his wife, Emma Page Campbell. The Australian has reported that his lawyers are attempting to have the council-commissioned external report into allegations of sexual harassment against him suppressed because he may be suicidal.

    It is a horrible dilemma, but it would be an error to suppress the report. There are many interested parties in this, and one is the public, which has a right to know the report’s findings, as much to improve workplaces in the future as to discover was has gone on at Town Hall. The council’s chief executive, Ben Rimmer, has said he aims to “publicly release the outcomes of the investigation as soon as possible.” The entire report being released is less likely….

    read more – https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/12/we-need-to-change-the-culture-of-silence-about-sexual-harassment

  11. I’ve always thought Pyne must be straight, simply because you’d have to think that a closeted gay conservative politician would try to adopt a rather, er, masculine persona than he has.

    But I agree that his sexuality isn’t relevant. Straight, gay, or bi, he’s still a fuckwit.

    Now if he was to, say, give someone a cushy government job to avoid being outed, that would be a different story.

  12. I am most angry with the media. If the press gallery had reported his doings as forensically as they reported on Gillard, Thomson and Slipper he would not have been re-elected in the by-election in New England or perhaps elected in 2016

    Yes indeed, and there were others as well.

    These journalists must think that their readers have memories of a goldfish.
    It’s a great business model – treat your readers with contempt.

  13. These journalists must think that their readers have memories of a goldfish.
    It’s a great business model – treat your readers with contempt.

    There’ll always be a job as the media advisor to a politician. Could also come with fringe benefits.


  14. Rex Douglas (Block)
    Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 3:36 pm
    Comment #1712

    It was Rudd that terminated it.

    Menzies house getting a little worried that Abbott’s efforts arn’t going to be election winner?

  15. Barnaby has good reason to be mad with the media. It is the cover up that is going to get him. If the media had done it’s job there would be no cover up.

  16. ratsak says:
    Monday, February 12, 2018 at 1:02 pm

    …”But hey, maybe one day Missing the Point will be a team sport at the Winter Olympics and you can join Fess in winning Gold, Gold, Gold for Australia!”…

    I didn’t miss your point.
    My point was that you didn’t actually have one.
    And kindly don’t attempt to associate me with Confessions, it is deeply personally offensive.

  17. Simon Katich @ #1761 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 4:34 pm

    Laura Tingle joins ABC as 7.30’s chief political correspondent

    My problem with Tingle (as with so many other of the CPG) is that they become talking heads. It is easy to see how the pressure of regular deadlines – to have to say something (anything) to keep the punters either reading, watching or listening – will degrade their work.

    At least she isnt holding on to her AFR role. But as 730 correspondent and a weekly column for ABC and I assume fronting LNL every week as well as guest spots on Insiders and probably the Drum and perhaps regular essays in whatever and who knows what else, it is a wonder there are enough words to go around.

    I’m sure that assorted press releases from the LNP will help out.

  18. Absence of Empathy @ #1770 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 4:47 pm

    ratsak says:
    Monday, February 12, 2018 at 1:02 pm

    …”But hey, maybe one day Missing the Point will be a team sport at the Winter Olympics and you can join Fess in winning Gold, Gold, Gold for Australia!”…

    I didn’t miss your point.
    My point was that you didn’t actually have one.
    And kindly don’t attempt to associate me with Confessions, it is deeply personally offensive.

    😆 😆 😆 Gold!

  19. Victoria @ #1425 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 10:54 am

    politicians marriages dont work out just like the rest of us. difference here is that BJoyce attempted to cover it all up before and during his by election a couple of months ago. it was obvious by his conduct during the campaign that he together with the complicity of the media, was laying low to avoid any scrutiny. he could have simply said at the outset of campaign that he is in a relationship and expecting their first child together. but no. he did not do that. why?
    he deliberately deceived his electorate. he is not an unknown backbencher, but the Deputy Prime Minister of the country. if he deliberately deceived his electorate and the country about this, what else is he hiding?

    BJoyce is Björked?

  20. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-12/qld-electoral-commissioner-suspended-over-serious-allegations/9423236

    Queensland’s electoral commissioner Walter van der Merwe has been suspended immediately by the state’s Attorney-General over “serious allegations” which she says could amount to misbehaviour under the electoral act.

    Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath said the unspecified allegations, while serious, “do not suggest inappropriate interference in the outcome of elections”.

  21. I didn’t miss your point.
    My point was that you didn’t actually have one.
    And kindly don’t attempt to associate me with Confessions, it is deeply personally offensive.

    Three statements

    All of them wrong.

    Congratulations.

  22. although on second thoughts perhaps associating you with Fess is deeply personally offensive to Confessions. So I will apologise to her.

    You’re more like DTT

  23. For some reason the Trumble government reminds me of this Warren Zevon song:

    Well, I went home with the waitress
    The way I always do
    How was I to know
    She was with the Russians, too

    I was gambling in Havana
    I took a little risk
    Send lawyers, guns and money
    Dad, get me out of this

    I’m the innocent bystander
    Somehow I got stuck
    Between the rock and the hard place
    And I’m down on my luck
    And I’m down on my luck
    And I’m down on my luck

    Now I’m hiding in Honduras
    I’m a desperate man
    Send lawyers, guns and money
    The shit has hit the fan

  24. More bad news for our resident fossil fuel enthusiast and advocate.

    Australian power prices worse than banana republics

    Australia has power prices worse than a third world country, a global renewable energy guru says.

    “For a country that has a very high standard of living, stable economic situation and tremendous opportunities, it makes no sense at all for the price of power to be more than a banana republic,” the Australian head of global renewable firm SunEnergy1, and part-time racecar driver, Kenny Habul said.

    Mr Habul said Australia’s energy landscape is undergoing a dramatic transition, and the nation needs to turn away from coal.

    “Our generation is the end of traditional energy,” Mr Habul said.

    “Coal in itself is finished; they’re closing coal plants everywhere. Natural gas was the next best solution. Most coal plants in the US have been shut down and switched to natural gas.

    “Solar is now cheaper than natural gas and the latest advancements in solar cell technology put us at twice the output of the current panel in the next four years and at one-tenth of the cost. There is enough sunlight that hits the earth in one day to power the earth for a year, and we dig coal and we burn it, it’s fundamentally wrong.”

    Mr Habul also forecast that Australian households will defect en masse from the grid, with every home powered by solar panels and batteries.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australian-power-prices-worse-than-banana-republics-20180206-p4yziu.html

  25. Joyce, Pyne or whoever just need a forensic interpretation of their travel records and some answers will emerge.
    Look at where Joyce has been and his accompanying entoourage perhaps.
    Pyne should have records of his direct flights to and from Adelaide of perhaps he stops over somewhere on the way.

  26. You would have to have a fairly appalling memory to say that a statement was wrong at 5:01pm and then admit that it wasn’t and apologize at 5:02pm.

  27. It’s a funny world. The Liberal messed up the energy market in trying to keep old coal plants running; resulting in high energy prices; which is super charging renewables.

  28. frednk @ #1783 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    It’s a funny world. The Liberal messed up the energy market in trying to keep old coal plants running; resulting in high energy prices; which is super charging renewables.

    G’day Fred.
    I enjoyed your explanation t’other day of your gravatar and nickname.
    I would never have worked it out. 😀

  29. The Liberal messed up the energy market in trying to keep old coal plants running; resulting in high energy prices; which is super charging renewables.

    Turnbulls cunning plan?

    Nah. Turnbull wouldnt recognise a cunning plan if it painted itself purple and danced naked on a harpsicord singing ‘cunning plans are here again’.

  30. Strangely enough this morning, before it was announced that Tingle would be joining the ABC, I was thinking on what the three prominent female supporters of Michelle Guthrie at the ABC had been ‘given’ for their support when Guthrie arrived and started ‘slashing’-

    * Patricia Karvelas – Given a Sunday evening program on ABC News 24 TV and keeps her RN Drive program and weekly podcast “The Party Room”;

    * Emma Alberici – Given the ABCs prime reporter job on the new RC into the Banks – lots of TV and radio time in that; and then

    * WTF!!! Leigh Sales gets Laura Tingle as Chief Political Correspondent of 7.30. WTF!!!

    —–
    (The commercial media collapsing fast here in Australia when people like Andrew Probyn and Tingle are counting the ABC as ‘making it home safe’ for the future.)

  31. frednk @ #1783 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    It’s a funny world. The Liberal messed up the energy market in trying to keep old coal plants running; resulting in high energy prices; which is super charging renewables.

    It’s a funny old world indeed. Australians pay the highest price in the developed world for our electricity, and have done for years now … and yet we still have one of the lowest penetrations of renewables of any country … not just developed countries. In fact, we rank about 112th, even below most of Trump’s “shithole” countries **

    Makes you wonder where all that money is going, doesn’t it?

    ** I just have to laugh when I read articles trumpeting stupid statements like “Australia is about to become the next renewable energy powerhouse!” The rest of the world must wonder what the fuck we’re smoking … apart from coal dust, of course.

  32. You would have to have a fairly appalling memory to say that a statement was wrong at 5:01pm and then admit that it wasn’t and apologize at 5:02pm.

    Not at all.

    From your point of view being compared to Fess is clearly a compliment.

    From Fess’ point of view, not so much.

    you’re going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view

  33. Frednk ‘It’s a funny world. The Liberal messed up the energy market in trying to keep old coal plants running; resulting in high energy prices; which is super charging renewables.’

    The law of Unintended Consequence rules.

  34. ratsak says:
    Monday, February 12, 2018 at 5:34 pm

    …”From your point of view being compared to Fess is clearly a compliment.
    From Fess’ point of view, not so much.
    you’re going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view”…

    Apology accepted, Thank You.

  35. I recieved a rather odd letter from the ATO today (no not a scam) regarding to my super. I am sure they are wrong and have forwarded the letter to my super trustee, who also think they are wrong and will investigate.

    The up shot is they claim I owe tax and I am wondering if they trying the same ploy they used on Centrelink clients in the hope of raising some revenue?

  36. Makes you wonder where all that money is going, doesn’t it?

    The free market gotta eat you know.

    I’ll bet Crabby Annabelle is fuming. I expect after years of being “ABC’s chief online political writer” she thought she deserved the gig.

    Crabbe pigeon-holed herself into something nobody wanted. Her attempts at poking fun at politics with good-natured humour failed on both counts and came out just plain churlish.

    I for one will never forget of forgive the way she salivated over decades old stories of Gillards ex boyfriend.

  37. mimhoff @ #1466 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 10:48 am

    How about you do it instead of just making up “what if”s?

    Mimhoff

    I did but think it inappropriate to post it. I am NOT into spreading rumours, especially not against Labor, so I will not actually link the stuff.

    However a quick google will probably give you the scuttlebutt

    Bloody easy to do dingle berry. However if you find nothing then I guess that is good too. Does not say much for your search skills but it means it will be hard for those with ill intent to find too.

  38. Peebee

    If you’ve been ‘non-compliant’ in lodging tax returns at some time in the past you should take them as being serious.

    Happened to my next door neighbour.

  39. PeeBee @ #1793 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 5:52 pm

    I recieved a rather odd letter from the ATO today (no not a scam) regarding to my super. I am sure they are wrong and have forwarded the letter to my super trustee, who also think they are wrong and will investigate.

    The up shot is they claim I owe tax and I am wondering if they trying the same ploy they used on Centrelink clients in the hope of raising some revenue?

    Hmmm. Perhaps.

    However, I recently got a letter saying my super fund owed tax from several years ago (why they didn’t ask for it at the time is not explained). At that time, I had transferred a shareholding from one share-trading account to another, and because of a stuff-up by (you guessed it!) the Commonwealth Bank, I had to do it by essentially selling and re-buying the shares on the open market, at current prices. I think this led to an “on paper” capital gain, on which I owed tax. At least that’s the only explanation I can come up with.

    Perhaps something similar happened to you?

  40. @P1

    You don’t think that has more to do with Australia being the driest and the flattest continent?

    Hydro has been viable for a lot longer than wind and solar. Therefore, countries with good hydro potential tend to have much higher renewables % than countries with good wind or solar.

  41. P1

    I’ll bet Crabby Annabelle is fuming. I expect after years of being “ABC’s chief online political writer” she thought she deserved the gig.

    Stuff Crabbeee, I reckon. 😀

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