YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Another better poll result for the government, this time from Queensland, which finds the swing to Labor at an almost-manageable 2%.

Today’s Courier-Mail has a YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland which gives the Coalition one of its best poll results in some time, crediting them with a 52-48 lead. This represents a two-party swing to Labor of only 2.1% since the 2016 election, although it’s only one point better than in the previous Queensland poll by Galaxy in August last year. The poll also provides further evidence that One Nation has gone off the boil, their primary vote of 9% being three points down on August. The Coalition is up four to 41% (compared with 43.2% at the election), Labor is steady on 32% (30.9% at the election), and the Greens are up three to 10% (8.8% at the election).

A perfectly even split of opinion is recorded on the Adani coal mine, with support and opposition both at 41%. This breaks down to 43-38 against in south-east Queensland, and 45-37 in favour in the rest of the state. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 860.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,108 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. I spoke to a Miner from Singleton in NSW on the train the other day. Good Labor man in general, in a Union etc., but convinced that it was the Hole in the Ozone layer that was causing Global Warming, not the Coal that he mined in the Upper Hunter Valley. ❗

    So I can understand those regional Queensland figures for Adani.

    He also said that the world will need Coal forever, so we have to keep mining it.


  2. From the article in the Curious Snail dead tree edition, it looks as though the Adani question was asked BEFORE the voting intention question.

    If so, virtually useless.

    About 850 sample from memory.


    The Labor veteran Wayne Swan will bow out of politics at the next federal election, and will confirm on Saturday he will not re-contest his Queensland seat of Lilley.

    Guardian Australia reported in mid-January Swan was moving in the direction of retiring, with fellow AWU right faction member and former campaign manager Anika Wells considered the most likely candidate to step in.

  4. From the previous thread in case you missed it.

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    This contribution from Peter Hartcher is well worth reading.
    Take the time to read this contribution from Julia Baird in which she looks at the double standards in political reporting.
    David Wroe writes expansively on how Penny Wong delivered a speech to a think tank in Singapore that set a high watermark for sheer substance, some might say density, by a shadow foreign affairs minister. It was so rich in foreign policy analysis that one scholar at a leading Australian university has set it as reading material for his international relations students.
    Phil Coorey writes that the Coalition is digging in for a tax-driven election. Google.
    The SMH editorialises that private lives DO affect public issues.
    The Australian gives us this goss on Barnaby who it reports is living rent-free with the mother of his unborn child in an Armidale townhouse owned by a multi-millionaire ¬businessman who is an influential player in New England politics and was once ¬accused of trying to bribe Tony Windsor. It also exposes the nepotistic treatment given to the lady. Google.
    Caroline Overington also gets into the Joyce story saying the affair needed to be outed. Google.
    In Michael West’s website Sandi Keane tells us how the fossil fuel lobby has governments ensnared.
    Quentin dempster tells us that the Barnaby Joyce saga is far from over.
    And Phil Coorey writes that Nationals MPs are beginning to question whether Barnaby Joyce can survive as leader, claiming their conservative voters are angry at revelations of his extramarital affair. Google.
    Crispin Hull cheekily asks, “Why not fund an Australian tobacco industry? We’re doing it for weapons.”
    Ross Gittins writes that finally an indigenous middle class has emerged.
    Richard Dennis gets stuck into Canavan over his handling of the Adani issue.
    The Molan/Bandt spat is over. For the time being.
    Section 2 . . .

    Peter van Onselen looks at the vexed question on whether or not to report on politicians’ private lives. Google.
    Alan Finkel has struck out at the electric car doubters.
    On the subject of closing the gap Jack Waterford concludes that It isn’t goals, targets, or gap-closing announcements that are the problem. It’s the want of plans to achieve them. Muddling along, ceaseless reorganisation and repackaging of programs, and glossy pamphlets are not the same thing.
    Hopefully distressing stories like this will get to the banking royal commission.
    Michael Koziol tells us how he Turnbull government wants to encourage tradies to become teachers, and nurses to swap the clinic for the classroom, under a plan to “shake up” the country’s schools.
    Historian Benjamin Jones writes about Australia, the republic in waiting for 150 years.
    Fergus Hunter reports that The Turnbull government has explicitly promised to take its $65 billion company tax cut package to the next election.
    A push to introduce popular plebiscites for pre-selections in the NSW Liberal Party is unlikely to be fully successful this weekend, despite some spirited backing from former prime minister Tony Abbott. Google.
    Pell’s lawyers want access to the medical records of people who have accused him of sexual offences, denying it is “a fishing expedition.”
    In a country with an embattled approach to matters of free speech and a protected media, the foreign interference laws being proposed by the Turnbull Government can only be worrying.,11183
    Another very good contribution from Paul Bongiorno who looks at George Brandis’s departure several current issues.
    Jacqui Maley on how Jim Molan helped give extremism a respectable face.
    Karen Middleton has got to the bottom of the filing cabinet papers story.
    Section 3 . . .

    The Turnbull government’s concessions on secrecy laws do not go far enough and the legislation should be “withdrawn and redrafted from scratch”, Australia’s journalist union has argued.
    Mike Seccombe writes that as the government looks for easy votes in national security, clumsy legislation finds an unexpected enemy in the News Corp tabloids. It’s a federal war on news and truth he says.
    Ross Jones on the “Barnaby Joyce miracle”.,11184
    The death throes of Myer.
    How Westfarmers kicked an own goal with its Bunnings UK adventure. Google.
    The perfect match of Bernardi and Shelton.
    The New Matilda’s list of the top 30 politicians we love to hate.
    It hasn’t even started yet – you’ll have to wait until Monday for that – but the royal commission into banks could turn out to be a dud. The commission says it will offer no legal protection to alleged victims of misconduct by the industry who have already signed confidentiality agreements that prevent them speaking publicly about their experiences.
    Mat Wade examines the entrenched penalty of motherhood.–even-in-denmark-20180209-h0vur7.html
    Clancy Yeates says that new lending to property investors slumped by a tenth last year as tougher bank credit standards started to bite, but the prudential regulator is “not declaring victory just yet.”
    If Elizabeth Farrelly had a magic wand she would ban these six things.
    Why domestic abusers thrive in Trump’s White House.

    Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and Trump’s great parade.

    Alan Moir and Closing the Gap.

    David Pope captioned this “But we still have Manus”.

    Peter Broelman on keeping private lives private.

    Zanetti goes after Bandt.

    Cathy Wilcox says they just don’t get it.

    Matt Golding enjoying the winter Olympics opening.

    And four more from Matt.

    Clever stuff from Glen Le Lievre.

    Mark Knight takes to Mars with the Tesla.

    Alan Moir goes to the movies.

    Jon Kudelka at the winter Olympics.

  5. Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 4m4 minutes ago

    It won’t be the sordid affair that does Barnaby in, it will be everything else. Moved on Campion to a role which pays up to $191K, living rent-free at donor’s apartment (even though his salary is $400K), corrupt land deals, cover up. Endless gravy train and entitlement. #auspol

  6. Cat,

    I get to sit in a regular meeting with the a group of former captains of the electricity industry. The expectation is that coal will be around for at least another 50 years. So the perspective comes from the top as much as the bottom of the coal food-chain.

    Luckily said meeting is a forum for discussion, so some of us can tell them to naff off, and how, politely.

  7. Good news for Chernobyl!

    As the Guardian explains, there are distinct advantages to building a solar farm within the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. For one, there’s obviously available real estate — and a lot of it. Secondly, there’s already electrical grid infrastructure in the area, high-voltage power lines included.

    Strong sunshine=renewable energy
    However, the most beneficial aspect to creating a renewable energy facility on the footprint of this notorious nuclear disaster site is an abundance of strong sunshine. The area, despite its forbidding reputation, is blessed with sunshine comparable to southern Germany, one of the foremost solar energy-producing regions in the world.

  8. The Bonking Beetroot has a history of accepting in kind gifts from wealthy patrons, eg Big Gina flying him on her private jet to a sumptuous wedding in India where mining magnates were smooched by the presence of Australian politicians, and provision of a platoon of flown in booth workers to hand out in New England in 2016 election. Not declared, and of course no benefits to Big Gina’s Galilee Basin interests.

    Now the SmearStralian is suggesting that Beetroot is not only dropping his strides, but trousering $14k worth of free accomodation! And not declared.

    Barnaby Joyce is living rent-free with the mother of his unborn child in an Armidale townhouse owned by a multi-millionaire ­businessman who is an influential player in New England politics and was once ­accused of trying to bribe Tony Windsor.

    The six-month gift of tenancy, worth about $14,000, was made by self-made local man Greg ­Maguire, who has had business interests in hotels, freight, and dairy and pastoral outfits, as well as a yacht charter enterprise.

    The Weekend Australian ­also understands Mr Joyce’s new partner, former staffer Vikki Campion, was moved with the approval of Malcolm Turnbull’s office to a senior adviser position on senator Matt Canavan’s staff which delivered her a significant pay rise. The salary band for a senior adviser is up to $191,000 a year.

    The move was approved after the relationship became the subject of rumour, prompting Bill Shorten to warn Mr Turnbull the public should be assured there was “nothing untoward”.

    Mr Joyce was handed the keys to the three-bedroom, two-bathroom townhouse when he was removed from parliament after it was found he was a dual Australian-New Zealand citizen.

    Rumours of a marital breakdown between Mr Joyce and his wife of 24 years, Natalie, were confirmed when the New England member returned to parliament and took up his role as Deputy Prime Minister late last year, but it was only this week that it was revealed Ms Campion was pregnant with his child.

    The Prime Minister yesterday said he was “very conscious of the distress” suffered by Mrs Joyce and her four daughters. Mr Joyce moved out of the family home, near Tamworth in northeast NSW, before the New England by-election on December 2, later moving into the townhouse.

    The Weekend Australian is not suggesting any wrongdoing on behalf of Mr Maguire or Mr Joyce.

    Mr Maguire, who has been friends with Mr Joyce for many years, has a long history in New England politics. In 2004, his then friend and independent MP Tony Windsor accused Mr Maguire of attempting to bribe him. Mr Maguire, said to be acting as an intermediary for then Nationals leader John Anderson, told Mr Windsor he had become ineffective as an MP and should “back off” in place of a better candidate

    Greg Maguire asked Tony Windsor what it would take for him to consider leaving politics and would he be interested in a diplomatic or trade posting overseas,” Mr Windsor’s campaign manager, Stephen Hall, told a Senate inquiry at the time. “Greg Maguire said that either could be arranged.”

    The matter was referred to the Australian Federal Police, but the case was dropped on the advice of prosecutors who said there was insufficient evidence.

    At the same Senate hearing in March 2005, Mr Maguire denied any wrongdoing.

    Mr Maguire organised a fundraising dinner for Mr Joyce’s 2013 election bid that then opposition leader Tony Abbott attended.

    Neither Mr Maguire nor any company he controls is listed as a donor to the Nationals’ federal division or its NSW branch in any year since the late 1990s. Neither Mr Maguire nor Mr Joyce could be reached for comment yesterday.

  9. That swing sounds much more believable. Put in 52-48 for qld and your looking at a labor majority of 83 seats currently. That’s almost exactly what Rudd won with in 2007.

    Any further erosion and your looking at a Latham lead.

    You can imagine a scenario if the trend is going to the libs, Batman, Longman and a tax cut federal budget that there’s an election in July / August 2018.

    Will the Newspoll faction stay with Bill S?

  10. Remember when Malcolm was beaming with the result of the New England by election? Once again, showing poor judgment with what he knew, or should have known, was coming…

  11. ESJ

    Is it true the rumblings I’m hearing about the Coalition being on shaky ground? Many Liberals apparently dark on the Nationals shenanigans

  12. Sprocket, I’ll think you’ll find your dear leader doesn’t want to continue that discussion although the topic obviously excites and titillates you.

  13. Gee the dead-tree edition of the SMH is thin today. No Massola, Kenny or any of the other spin merchants posing as journalists reporting on Trumble’s resurgence or Shorten’s shortcomings . The only items relating to the NE shit volcano (other than Hartcher’s prewritten pompous pap decrying both sides, and Julia Baird’s exhumation of Cheryl Kernot’s inhumation) are a few unbylined news items and a hurrumphing editorial. It’s almost as if the SMH has a conscience.

  14. Meanwhile in the old dart, a by election…

    East Brighton (Brighton & Hove) result:

    LAB: 67.5% (+21.0)
    CON: 17.2% (-5.3)
    GRN: 11.3% (-8.2)
    LDEM: 4.1% (-3.8)

    Lab HOLD.

  15. ESJ

    What can be more exciting than our Deputy Prime Minister being led by the contents of his trousers and wallet? The Murdoch smear machine seems to have forgotten the KillBill meme, with something more salacious – so I’m surprised your not on board?

  16. I doubt your fantasy of a Joyce scandal resignation is going to be achieved sprocket. Where that to happen it will make s44 look like a picnic, because everybody who has had an affair will be fair game.

    After all MPs have affairs with staffers so the whole area is rife with conflict of interest and salacious details to excite voyeurs like you.

  17. And now drops to the ABC, It looks like the knives are out for the Beetroot

    An insider source has told the ABC the Prime Minister’s office intervened to ensure Barnaby Joyce’s girlfriend was moved from his office.

    But the ABC has been told Mr Joyce initially resisted calls to distance himself from her professionally until the Prime Minister’s office became involved.

    After a high level meeting between the PMO and the Deputy Prime Minister, Ms Campion was moved into a newly created and unadvertised position in Nationals Minister Matt Canavan’s team, according to the source.

    Senator Canavan, himself a former staff member in Mr Joyce’s office, is a friend and ally of the Deputy Prime Minister.

  18. Sprocket – Malcolm’s only goal in life is to reach sundown and still be PM. I think the net is closing very fast on Barnyard. A couple more taps and the dam wall will break.

  19. Edwina StJohn @ #28 Saturday, February 10th, 2018 – 9:10 am

    I doubt your fantasy of a Joyce scandal resignation is going to be achieved sprocket. Where that to happen it will make s44 look like a picnic, because everybody who has had an affair will be fair game.

    Hmm. Well, I’d agree that everybody who has had an affair and then had the PM’s office intervene to arrange for their sex partner to take up a $200k sinecure in another department will probably be a bit worried.

  20. See how they do it.

    Form the Fairfax article on the Government planing to take the company tax cuts to the next election, Morrison:
    On Friday, Mr Morrison told an event in Sydney that businesses could not give workers pay rises if Parliament “insists on them continuing to pay the government more in higher taxes”.

    So now any increase in wages is hostage to passing the company tax cuts. If low or nonexistent wage growth continues, the government will wring its hands and blame Labor®.

  21. Also Moran has deflected attention from his Facebook posts onto Bandt and ‘the apology’.
    When making that statement, of which I don’t necessarily disagree, Bandt should have been aware of the NewsCorp reaction and planned a follow up, or say nothing.

  22. rhwombat
    Early days yet but all the signs are there for a media/cpg led renaissance for Malky.
    Labor really doesn’t have a chance.
    As I said on the eve of the Benelong by election, polls will be 50/50 by budget time.

    It’s kill bill or bust.

    May as well get used to the idea now.

  23. Trump’s CoS is finding himself drawing unwanted attention.

    Mr. Kelly has previously played down accusations against someone he believed served a greater goal. He appeared as a character witness in a 2016 court-martial of a Marine colonel accused of sexually harassing two female subordinates. Mr. Kelly praised the colonel as a “superb Marine officer.”

    Maggie Haberman‏Verified account @maggieNYT
    In the case of this particular Marine, the man was later arrested for “indecent liberties with a child”

  24. I really don’t care about Barnabys affair but a $200K newly created job looks like misuse of public funds. Perfect material for a Federal ICAC when we have one.

  25. mundo @ #38 Saturday, February 10th, 2018 – 9:39 am

    Early days yet but all the signs are there for a media/cpg led renaissance for Malky.
    Labor really doesn’t have a chance.
    As I said on the eve of the Benelong by election, polls will be 50/50 by budget time.

    It’s kill bill or bust.

    May as well get used to the idea now.

    Yeah. Kill Bill has been a bust so far.

  26. It could be that Trump doesn’t read intelligence briefings because they are withheld from him. He is a known asset of a foreign power. The intelligence officials would be very prudent not to let him see anything sensitive, but instead encourage him to play golf or lie in bed most of the time.

  27. Thanks BK
    Joyce is fucked. He might limp along for a month or two like the zombie corpse of a politician that he is, but ultimately even the Nats have the brainpower to realise they will not survive with this hypocritical incompetent at the helm.

  28. The collapse of Bronco’s political career may be a big minus for the Govt (even though he is an incompetent hack). His Hillbilly shtick cuts through to a lot of people. The Nats might not survive a sensible moderate leader!

  29. ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #47 Saturday, February 10th, 2018 – 6:55 am

    The collapse of Bronco’s political career may be a big minus for the Govt (even though he is an incompetent hack). His Hillbilly shtick cuts through to a lot of people. The Nats might not survive a sensible moderate leader!

    The other option is a RWFW.

    That would make life interesting! 🙂

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