As related by The Australian, the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, which is down from 53-47 at the previous poll in mid-November, and the narrowest it’s been since April last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is steady on 37% and the Greens are steady on 10%. One Nation is on 5%, which is down two on a result that was already their weakest showing since Newspoll started publishing results for them last February. Personal ratings bring good news for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up five on approval to 37%, and has widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 45-31. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34%, but it seems we will have to wait for the disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Good news for both on the latter score, with Turnbull down seven to 50%, and Shorten down four to 52%).
UPDATE: Newspoll also has preferred Labor leader numbers which have little separating Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese, who are on 22%, 25% and 24% respectively.
Sabra Lane has been appointed as the president of the NPC.
On Ron Walker.
I don’t quite understand. He died of cancer? But I thought he’d got access to this fantastic new drug which fixed him.
Mr Shorten doing a scripted speech in memoriam of Barry Cohen. Good presentation. No fake showing.
Just like the budget in reply speech to Abbott/Hockey budget a good performance.
Its just scripted lines at pressers that Mr Shorten can seem to be not so good.
That does need working on because nowadays those scripted lines at pressers seem to be the main way people see politicians during election campaigns.
I saw improvement on this front with Mr Shorten campaigning with Keneally in Bennelong.
Previous performance saw Mr Shorten only falling one seat short in the first term campaign.
I have confidence Labor is going to do better this time barring a black swan event.
I have seen no evidence of the Party moving to oust him due to loss of confidence. Why would they? In front 26 Newspolls in a row or almost the entirety of the Turnbull term.
Adam Bandt will be introducing the Greens bill to legislate for more paid family and domestic violence leave.
meher baba @ #180 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:03 am
Yes Rudd stubbornly hung on in there so Labor would not lose its tenuous majority.
Then the bastard remained upright and breathing, a constant living reminder of the ineptitude of his successor.
Presumably you and others wanted him to quit Parliament creating a by-election which Labor stood a good chance of losing.
Pegasus
When the push seems to be for ever lower penalty rates, and we’re all so lucky to be trickled down upon, I can’t see that gaining much support, however worthy it is.
[bemused says:
Monday, February 5, 2018 at 11:26 am
meher baba @ #180 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:03 am
bemused: “Yes, it was really terrible the way the insidious Rudd caused events like:
– The idiotic Citizens Assembly policy
– The even more idiotic Cash for Clunkers policy
– The disastrous campaign opening speech
– The issue with the Aboriginal Embassy people in Canberra set up by her staffers
etc.”
Sigh: I don’t deny that all those things were silly, and you haven’t mentioned the silliest of all: ie, admitting that what she was introducing was a “carbon tax”.
But all governments do some stupid stuff. However, most don’t have to deal with a ruthless internal fifth column working in close partnership with the MSM and the Opposition: a fifth column that was not driven by any ideological or policy differences with Gillard, but simply by untamed ego.
Yes]
With that one simple word Bemused you have admitted the charge against Rudd.
The rest of your response is just witless and repetitive irrelevancies. You convince no one, not even yourself, apparently.
guytaur @ #196 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:18 am
You seem to be confusing social conservatism with economic conservatism. Australia has always been quite socially conservative. We have not always been economically conservative, but I think we have become more so in recent years. Certainly since Howard.
Lizzie
I think Ron Walker may have lived a few years more than he might otherwise have expected thanks to the treatment he had.
In any event he wouldn’t be the first person to claim to have been cured of cancer to subsequently succumb to it. I have some personal experience in that area.
I think MB has a point on the fiscal side. Australia does tend to be rather dull and conservative when it comes to money. You just have to look at the preoccupation with housing as an investment to see that.
However, we have been historically quite progressive, such as women getting the vote. Recently we have gone a bit slow on issues such as Aboriginal recognition, and legalising marijuana (at least for medicine). But I would argue, that like ME, that is more about political posturing than the will of the populace.
Australians also see a role for government, and aren’t as into small government as much as neo-liberals would like. The first thing you hear when the Lib’s try and turn health into a business opportunity is “we don’t want to end up like the US”.
rossmcg
I felt mean even saying that.
P1
Yeah Australia having the First Women elected to parliament and second to have women to vote is so socially conservative.
The people being ahead of the politicians on Marriage Equality and on Race issues is so socially conservative.
Establishing a Human Rights Commission makes us so socially conservative.
Over the the last couple of centuries we have had conservative governments telling us we are naturally conservative but when it comes to votes on actual issue not so. Despite White Australia policy the people did vote to give Indigenous people the vote. We did support refugee intake. By boat. From Vietnam.
Yes Australia has had conservatism imposed on it. However its a myth to say that its socially conservative. The reason we always hear the Conservatives get in power is better economic managers.
Until Howard the conservatives pretended to be socially liberal thus the name of the party.
Not something you do in a naturally conservative country
meher baba @ #190 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:12 am
This is an idiotic statement. The defining characteristic of the Andrews Government is that it is getting things done. Building infrastructure and passing important social legislation.
It seems that ‘left’ is now the new word for ‘bogey man’ used by the like of you, Turnbull and sundry media droogs.
Most of key Labor’s policies are ‘left’ and supported across the party. e.g. support for the Public Health system, Medicare, properly funded Public Education, good Public Transport, Economic Growth, Full Employment etc. The Libs hate all of these but do not have the courage to argue directly against them. So they create the ‘left’ bogey man and various culture wars. Just as you do.
Jay Weatherill presser on virtual power plant now
Well said.
Under Howard, Welfare was considered ‘Safety net’, now the LNP fascist right want to get rid of Social Welfare and replace it with slavery programs like WTFD.
lizzie @ #148 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 10:19 am
guytaur @ #179 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:02 am
Besides which it is just plain boring hearing from the same bloody people time and time again. Especially when they have little of interest to say in the first place..
Pegasus @ #200 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:24 am
Figures.
LNP propagandist through and through.
Lizzie
No you shouldn’t. Cancer is a fact of life and needs to be talked about.
But the media needs to be careful in talking about people being “cured”. Makes great headlines particularly when the person is someone with a profile in the wider community.
The Howard Government grabbed the economic aspect of the Overton window and dragged it a couple of kilometres to the right, to the loud approval of most of the media and business community (except that they wanted him to drag it further).
Re social conservatism, our political leadership has always been more conservative than the general population. Even the Menzies Government and those Coalition Governments that followed his retirement were seen as hopelessly stodgy and behind the times by the general population, including those who voted for them. They accepted the stodgyness because they supposedly kept those terrible Commies/unions/drug-addled hippies at bay.
But social conservativism and the institutions that supported it, especially the Churches, always had an influence out of proportion to their numbers of devout adherents, if not to the same extent as in the USA. They seemed to be able swing blocks of voters, or at least politicians think they do. I’m not so sure. I think people who oppose abortion, same sex marriage, the ‘permissive society’ generally and, in the past, pubs opening on Sunday, and to who such issues are front of mind, already vote conservative.
Boris @ #191 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:14 am
This just makes no sense. Do you really think if Gillard had lost an election after Rudd doing all the nefarious things you and others allege, he would be rewarded with the leadership?
Really?
Oh well, I suppose Caucus was daft enough to have made Latham and Gillard leader.
meher
It worries me when I agree with you a couple times a week.
Have you had a ‘Road to Damascus’ moment?
😀
imacca @ #193 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:15 am
Awww, you must have mellowed. Getting old and soft?
don @ #156 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 7:36 am
Joyce is a public figure who has campaigned on family values and there is a considerable hypocrisy between his private and public behaviour. Because of his campaigning on family values his private behaviour became fair game.
Ms Tingle’s marital status has no bearing on her job as a journalist.
Pegasus
FMD. They must have had a small pool of candidates!
Meher baba
Andrews Govt in Victoria has been getting stuff done. New stations in growth areas and replacing old ones with new crossings that go either under or over road.
Domestic violence policy shake up. Medicinal cannabis now up and running. As well as euthanasia.
The only thing that has made it easy to cope with the pathetic govts of Abbott and Turnbull, has been having an effective state govt here in Victoria
Steve
That was the whole political impact of the Marriage Equality Survey.
It turns out the people Abbott and Shelton were appealing to voted Labor in the last Federal election.
A demographic that falls as new immigrants take on Australian values and religion and holding onto conservative ideas of the old country fall away.
guytaur @ #211 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:38 am
Yes, we have had our moments. But they are few and far between. Overall, we are socially conservative. Anyone who believes otherwise clearly hasn’t visited a truly progressive country and seen how issues are discussed and addressed. We have almost no intelligent internal debate here on social issues, a very reactionary media, and when we occasionally do manage to do something socially progressive we spend the next few years congratulating ourselves about how wonderful we are. It’s kind of sad really.
P1
You are pushing the conservative myth. You were one that opposed ME.
The ME survey totally busted the conservative Australia myth.
Windhover @ #206 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:31 am
What?
I think you are confusing what I said with what Meher Baba, well known anti-Labor stooge, said.
Is Weatherill as ‘deeply unpopular’ as some reports have it?
Diogenes @ #184 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 8:07 am
IIRC
In Opposition a leadership spill can be triggered if more than 50% of Parliamentary members support one,
while,
In Government 60% is needed. 🙂
lizzie @ #201 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:25 am
Unlike haematological malignancies, there is rarely a chemotherapeutic “cure” for “cancer”. Even the new agents and immunotherapies tend to “modulate” the various oncological processes, though often for years, until a new problem arises.
Lizzie
I doubt it. At least not outside of South Australia. The South Australian race is competitive. To me thats extraordinary for a fith term premier.
Barney
Thanks. Still nowhere near numbers required. Maths points out the fiction of the question asked by Newspoll. Its not a choice voters are going to get.
Lizzie
Weatherill support in Cabinet /parliamentary team or the general public
Ron Walker received keytruda which is presently being heavily trialled in skin and lung cancers and even mesotheliomas.
I have heard oncologists discuss keytruda very optimistically.
guytaur @ #228 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 11:53 am
Yeah, right. Where are we on abortion? Where are we on welfare? Where are we on drug policy? Where are we on racial discrimination? Where are we on gender equality? Where are we on equal pay? Where are we on free speech? Where are we on recognition of indigenous people? Where are we on human rights?
For goodness sake!
guytaur: “Australia is not conservative by nature. That’s a right wing myth.”
I reckon Australian cultural perceptions are complicated and not easily captured in a left-right dichotomy.
The longstanding concept of a “fair go” is a bit of a two-edged sword IMO. I don’t reckon it’s based so much on wanting to raise up the disadvantaged as it is on a determination to cut down those who are seen as getting too far ahead of themselves: the “tall poppies.” That is, inequality bothers me most when I suspect someone else is getting an unwarranted advantage.
This attitude may underpin a concern about social justice, but it can just as easily promote “right wing” views: eg, Howard’s ability to play on public concerns about “queue jumpers”, Aborigines living on government handouts, inner city “elites” with politically correct views, etc.
Most Australians primarily want to be well off, and ideally without working overly hard in order to get there. Ambitious people who work hard to get on are frequently accused of being “crawlers” or “brown nosers.”
We are, as Donald Horne expressed it, the “Lucky Country”. We have become one of the wealthiest places on earth without having to be especially clever or resourceful or innovative. I reckon this makes the majority of Australians innately conservative: certainly politically, where the Libs have been in charge in the Federal Parliament for more than 2/3 of my six or so decades on the planet. Apart from the Whitlam victory in 1972 (which was no fewer 23 years in the making), Labor has only won and retained government at the Federal level after it has bent over backwards in reassuring the public that it doesn’t have socialist aims.
Yes, a large majority of people voted for SSM, but I think that result was largely a reflection of another old Anglo-Australian cultural concept of “live and let live”, rather than representing a shift of overall sentiment towards a more progressive view of the world.
IMO anyway.
P1
You have just outlined what is wrong with political parties delivering on policies. Not what people want or expect.
See the agenda. We have even had an LNP government listening to people and trying to enact euthanasia.
We are a naturally centre left country.
Yeah we had no change the date debate. We had no Uluru statement process.
The people want this stuff.
We are not a naturally conservative country.
meher baba @ #238 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 12:08 pm
Yes, I agree with your post 100%.
bemused: “This is an idiotic statement.”
I was simply stating a fact: Andrews is aligned to the Socialist Left faction and is far more left-oriented in his views that just about any previous state leader at the Federal or State level.
And my comment “People’s Republic of Victoria” was simply a lighthearted reference to the fact that Victoria – once the heartland of the Liberal Party – has now been the most left-leaning state for a couple of decades: a riff on Richard Nixon’s statement that “I have never visited a communist country but I have been to Massachusetts.”
guytaur @ #239 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 12:10 pm
Read meher baba’s post. It’s excellent.
MB
The ME gave us the only issue on via election which you can grade conservative v progressive on social issues. The one before that was the 1967 referendum by election.
Both of these confirm what pollsters like Essential have told us on these issues.
You look at that regular polling and despite what the right wing media and politicians keep saying the polling is clear.
In my opinion the voters buy myths to support the LNP in government as it is propaganda they get day after day from the right peddling these myths.
We see this today with Turnbull peddling again the trickle down economics myth.
The public is not buying and Labor will win an election because Australia is not a conservative country by nature.
As a long time lurker and occasional commenter I must say that I do not understand why you people give a troll like ESJ it’s jollies time after time.
Rather than give oxygen to it’s asinine comments surely it would be better to ignore it’s stupid provocative comments and starve it of the fun it craves at your expense.
After all, if ignored by all, except it’s own kind, the fun it has would turn to disappointment quickly enough.
With any luck it might even disappear through boredom.
Why don’t you people of like persuasion combine just for a couple of months and ignore this nasty troll and see what happens?
guytaur
It all depends on your definition of ‘conservative’, doesn’t it? However, I’m not going to get into an endless argument about definitions.
How the Tesla virtual battery will work in SA:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-04/how-tesla-sa-labor-free-battery-scheme-would-work/9394728?WT.ac=statenews_sa
Tesla are going to make an absolute fortune from this.
The householder has no right to the energy produced or stored to this system, and will be offered a guaranteed power price of $0.27 per kWh according to the article. Even if the customer was guaranteed the right to all output from this system, a price of $0.27 per kWh is enough for them to make very good money on volume of 50,000 units.
From the looks of it, Telsa and however they are teaming up will get themselves a wholesale electricity license and will then use the systems for arbitrage – store cheap energy from their PV in their battery, and then let rip with the batteries into the grid when the wholesale price of electricity justifies it. It’s also a good opportunity to capitalise on negative wholesale prices and then sell the stored electricity at an opportune time later in the day.
It’s not going to take many ridiculously priced trading intervals for Tesla to make their money back on their batteries. These systems are going to pay for themselves dozens of times over by the end of their useful lives.
Social conservatism is on the decline IMO. Marriage postal survey and enactment of assisted dying in VIC and big increase in non-religious people recorded in census 2016 makes that clear.
Julie Bishop is off to visit NZ – but not Jacinda Ardern. Shes meeting Winston Peters….
Ah Kalgoorlie
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/05/kalgoorlie-australia-day-party-featuring-nazi-flag-investigated-by-police
Funnily, the people of the region haven’t always wanted to be joined with the rest of us.
Back in the 1890s there was movement to split the Goldfields from the rest of the colony of WA and secession was strongly supported there in the 1933 referendum.
But it’s all true blue now.