As related by The Australian, the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, which is down from 53-47 at the previous poll in mid-November, and the narrowest it’s been since April last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is steady on 37% and the Greens are steady on 10%. One Nation is on 5%, which is down two on a result that was already their weakest showing since Newspoll started publishing results for them last February. Personal ratings bring good news for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up five on approval to 37%, and has widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 45-31. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34%, but it seems we will have to wait for the disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Good news for both on the latter score, with Turnbull down seven to 50%, and Shorten down four to 52%).
UPDATE: Newspoll also has preferred Labor leader numbers which have little separating Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese, who are on 22%, 25% and 24% respectively.
Thanks C@t. I might catch up on iView during the week. 🙂
The Australian spinning harder than ever as usual.
Same same – margin of error stuff, really. Nothing has really changed for about 18 months.
Whenever this government’s ministers are away on holiday they go back up in the polls. Happened during the Abbott months too.
Makes Bludgertrack seem the most accurate marker for the state of play.
Quick tl:dr:
‘African Gangs’ peeled off 2% of the One Nation bigots back to the Coalition tent.
Hardly in the category of ‘National leadership’, but Turnbull will take it to the bank anyway.
Also, the number of times Turnbull has sneered at and denigrated Bill Shorten appears to be working for him. Though, contradictorily, Bill”s satisfaction rating has gone up.
Its looking like a Latham Lead Mk2.
Folk don’t like Turnbull or Shorten. Seems like its a contest as to who is less unpopular.
What a shame Batman came along when it did. Could be another Flinders 1982 by-election scenario…
How ridiculous and mischievous can you get!?!
About as idiotic as ESJ.
Bill Shorten is NO, Mark ‘Loco’ Latham!
ESJ
Are you Malcolm Turnbull?
ESJ is here. Now for Rex.
People don’t like Shorten and it doesn’t look like, smell like, a winning situation for Labor.
Bring on Albo – its your only hope.
Every half decent poll has been 48 or worse for a year for the filth. This is 48. The filth are crowing.
Next poll when random noise turns it back into a 47 the filth will be looking to neck themselves.
Concrete doesn’t set as hard as this polling.
ESJ
Totally deluded.
Oh POOH!
Come on. Someone pipe up and blame it on Shorten.
Someone else blame it on RDN and the 50 shades of whatever.
I notice a Barbrady has blamed MOE (“move along people, there is nothing to see here”).
I am going to blame it on the moonlight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkBS4zUjJZo
Interesting that the only change was 2pts from One Nation to the Libs, which I guess would mean minimal change in seats won/lost, allowing for some preference leakage from One Nation to Labor.
(From previous thread…)
PvO seems to ‘Wow’ every Newspoll as it arrives. Like the rooster crowing at dawn.
But 52-48 – not bad, considering the crap about “African gangs”, the attempt to launch a culture war “Great Debate” on Australia Day, good vibes left over from the silly season, good economic news and tax cuts being boosted by the mainstream media, and Citizenshipgate biting Labor on the bum.
But Labor still needs to improve those numbers quick. 52-48 is too close for comfort. We don’t want a rerun of the 2001 political Year.
Only ON defectors returning to the party they always vote for.Whats to worry about?
NathanA says: (from previous thread)
Thanks very much for the info, NathanA – and your observations re rehab. difficulties.
Will discuss with the doc.
Dan – all of the above.
Re Newspoll – assuming that the sample size is about 2,000, the margin of error is about 2%.
So basically, no change from last time.
Would still prefer a bigger Labir buffer.
So African gangs, Australia Day debate, Snowy (snowjob) 2.0, The great Australia Arms supplier crap and Labor in Crisis/Leadership etc all it did was live up to Turnbull’s nickname – fizzled out.
How many to go until #30?
Tom.
From previous thread.
Edwina StJohn @ #624 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 9:47 pm
Steve Smith a great electoral strategist?
Isn’t he the goose who preened himself as McGowan’s replacement in WA?
That worked well didn’t it?
No ESJ you are backing another loser.
Nice Dan, though it brings back bad memories from the 1990s.
Steve777 – snap!
Tom.
Turnbull heaps misery on Shorten
9:47pmSimon Benson
Malcolm Turnbull has stretched his lead as preferred PM as Bill Shorten struggles over the perception he is moving Labor to the left.
This must be the stupidest and most desperate headline that Benson has ever written.Should be ashamed of himself.
Dan Gulberry @ #17 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 7:10 pm
So very true.
What a shame Batman came along when it did. Could be another Flinders 1982 by-election scenario…
The Dark side win a battle then lose the war a few months later.
Tom @ #21 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 9:12 pm
I tend to disagree. With the exception of Labor leadership/citizenship issues I’d expect all of those things to play heavily in Labor’s favor, polling wise.
The Coalition has either done something else that proved massively popular enough to erase the damage caused by all those other things, or the Australian public has given a bunch of bad ideas far more credit than they deserve.
The Oz looking as biased as ever.Thats why voters take no notice of the shite written in it.
Bemused :
1) A divided Liberal party – with a former PM hanging around
2) Multiple s44 by-elections
and all Labor can manage is 52:48.2PP and a primary of 35-37
Its not a ringing endorsement is it?
Tells me people don’t like either but there isn’t any great enthusiasm for Labor under Shorten.
I remember one K.Rudd had devastating poll leads in 2007 like 58-42 , 59-41 etc and he only won with 52.7 (I think), so I think 52:48 at this stage of the game isn’t great for Labor.
Its eerily reminiscent of Latham’s lead in 2001.
With the first Newspoll of 2018being released it might be an idea to check the state of play with the Poll Bludger Libspill III sweepstake.
There aren’t many left standing.
kezza2 @ #19 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 10:11 pm
Wise thing to do Kezza, I did say to do your research. Problem is there are various opinions and I strongly suggest not doing anything without a supportive medical practitioner.
I believe there are (or were) clinics offering Ibogaine treatment in New Zealand and Canada.
Or it’s business as usual over xmas/new year and school holidays when people switch off and aren’t paying attention.
Or the population has been on holiday and not really tuned in. That’s my bet.
steve davis @ #25 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 10:16 pm
Benson doesn’t do shame.
Good evening all,
The only difference is a net 2 point shift from ON to the coalition. Nothing else has happened despite what the OZ and others will push.
Labor appears to have locked in 37 primary despite its ” shift to the left “. Good policy will shift a few more towards labor rather than away.
People are just over Christmas and a full full political year ahead. This is the money year and there will be plenty of ups and downs for everyone. Deep breaths and hold on tight.
Cheers and a good night to all.
I have decided to add ESJ to my scroll past list. He/she never adds anything of worth to the conversation, so why waste my time reading it.
On the subject of Batman, “Liberal” voters will have to choose between Labor and Green. Sure, they’ll have a choice of independents and Far Right crackpots to vote for, but ultimately their preference will have to go to one or other enemy.
So what will they do?
If there were no Labor candidate in my seat, I’d vote Green, if no Green then for whatever candidate left of “Liberal” I thought had the best chance of winning. But I would ultimately have to choose between “Liberal”, religious wingnut or One Nation as to who to preference highest. The religious candidate would be everything I hate about “Liberal” squared, so the wingnut goes last. So it’s between One Nation and “Liberal”. Whatever would be most damaging to the Coalition. So One Nation. Too incompetent to prosecute any agenda, and I want none if the “Liberals'” agenda.
Assuming that Batman voters think along similar lines, they’ll be preferencing the Greens to cause maximum damage to Labor.
So, Labor is nicely cruising to a smashing victory. All that desperate , concerted effort from the Libs, Nats, Rupert and even the ABC, plus Katharine Murphy at The Guardian…. and the result: Another negative Newspoll to be added to the previous ones, as we inevitably approach the fatal “Negative Newspoll N.30”!
The Liberal Party is already gone electorally…. and Malcolm Turnbull is going as their leader….
“The Liberal Party is already gone electorally…. and Malcolm Turnbull is going as their leader….”
I’d have to see a string of 54-46 or better (as in 2007 and 1983) before I’d say that for the first part of that assertion.
I do not think either party is a lock in for electoral success at this stage.
Labor does need to lock in two or three percent more in primary and it is all up to them to attract voters with good policy. Forget about what the government and the MSM rant on about, concentrate on the release of good policy of which I am sure labor has plenty.
It wad never going to be a walk in for labor and there will be plenty of ups and downs to come. Labor just needs to hold the line and stick to its strategy. Labor held firm in the early days of Turnbull and needs to simply do the same.
This is the money year and government will not fall into the hands of labor but it is there if labor sticks firm.
This is just the first Newspoll of the year and no matter what the MSM will push means very little.
Off to bed now.
Cheers and a good night to all.
From bitter experience a 52:48 Newspoll ALP:LNP at this stage of the electoral cycle is usually an indication that a LNP government is at least a 50:50 chance of winning – the LNP are about to deliver a Howard election-year budget with lots of sweeteners (even if it results in more structural problems for the budget in the future) and is likely to enjoy a 2018 that sees economic growth. They’ll lay off the nasty stuff because the media seem to have decided the deficit is not the crisis it was under labor even if it is now >2 x as big. The interesting thing will be if interest rates start to go up in the US, Japan and even the EU, then ours will likely follow. There are many in Australian mortgage belts who decide elections already struggling and overstretched and they will not appreciate some of the tax slugs (such as the medicare levy) the LNP are planning. But they are also easily scared into thinking that a change of government will increase risks to them and their property value. I reckon Mal would be pretty comfortable with this poll result – particularly if he can get it to 50:50 before the 30 negative polls are up.
ESJ
52-48 would likely lead to around 50.5 at an election, potentially hung parliament, 2 or 3 greens Batman probs plus another.
Would be a good result especially if had to rely on Wilkie too.
Hung parliament’s have given us some of the better governments, Gillard did exceptionally well and would have had a chance in 2013 if kr hadn’t been feeding the press stories. Carbon price, NDIS, RC into pedo priests, plain packaging were all good.
If Labor get up in Tassie and block pokies I would like to see Wilkie get it done nationally, plus a Fed ICAC, more focus on renewables, tax minimisation.
“and all Labor can manage is 52:48.2PP”….. Edwina, you do realise that with a 2PP like that you guys are back into opposition, where you will have great fun stabbing each other to determine who controls the Liberal Party and what new direction the survivors will take in order to recover what they call “our lost dignity”.
The Conservatives are quietly waiting for the Waffler from Wentworth to lose the election (and he will lose the election) to launch their assault on the Party.
Take cover, Edwina, you don’t want to be counted as “collateral damage”.
You would think that lib democrats or Cory would consider running Batman for the funding, would be sure to get over 4%, esp with no LNP.
Any thoughts on whether Federal Labor would be better off or worse off if Labor win minority governments in SA and Tassie?
Labor lead over libs has been fairly steady now, all of 2017, not like mad Mark that I recall who bounced around.
Maybe Shorten still carries a lot of negative baggage for bringing back crazy Kev. Once KR left parliament for good Labor hit the lead in the polls and only lost it when the LNP dumped tones.
Perhaps Kev threatening to sue the nasty ABC was a negative for Labor in bringing him and his association with Shorten back into focus.
Steve777,
With the level of unconditional support the Liberal Party is routinely receiving from the MSM, plus the lack of any visit from Shorten to Murdoch in order to provide “reassurance of obedience” (as Rudd did in 2007), the fact that the ALP has been relentlessly ahead in the opinion polls is pretty much guarantee of an incoming win. For those looking for a larger margin in the 2PP, just check the latest Essential: 54% ALP.
Turnbull, a man of considerable waffling resources, and his gang have tried just about every trick under the sun. Result: they are still on a losing track. Let’s not forget that this Government is sitting on a miserable margin of +0.36% from the last Federal election.
Better on both Dio.
I would see that as people approving action on pokies and renewables and more but trusting a Labor minority government more than a Labor majority govt or LNP to get it done.
Diogenes,
The ALP will be better off if they win in SA and Tas, even if they have to form a coalition Government, especially in Tas (with the Greens). Why? Because a win is a powerful morale booster that will spread across to the Federal party. Just look at Turnbull’s expectations at the last Qld state election (soon trashed by the hard reality of the LNP loss), not to speak of his over the top reaction at Alexander being returned in the conservative seat of Bennelong (although with a swing against).
Winners are grinners….. Labor retaining SA and Vic, plus regaining Tas will put an unbearable load on Turnbull. The Conservatives will not accept his waffling as an explanation. The Conservatives know perfectly well the difference between a Loss and a Win.