As related by The Australian, the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, which is down from 53-47 at the previous poll in mid-November, and the narrowest it’s been since April last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is steady on 37% and the Greens are steady on 10%. One Nation is on 5%, which is down two on a result that was already their weakest showing since Newspoll started publishing results for them last February. Personal ratings bring good news for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up five on approval to 37%, and has widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 45-31. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34%, but it seems we will have to wait for the disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Good news for both on the latter score, with Turnbull down seven to 50%, and Shorten down four to 52%).
UPDATE: Newspoll also has preferred Labor leader numbers which have little separating Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese, who are on 22%, 25% and 24% respectively.
Keen observers of the ABC’s “Insiders”will have noticed that Laura Tingle has not been wearing any rings on the fourth finger of her left hand for more than twelve months.
T,
I realise that.
The ballot between these 2 was a bad choice to begin with.
and mentioned on Sunday that she hadn’t really been connected to the main news stories over the holiday period, with a twinkle in her eye?
Rifts are appearing in the GOP in the wake of the Nunes memo.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/priebus-denies-that-trump-wanted-to-fire-mueller/2018/02/04/df0ac7d4-09c2-11e8-8890-372e2047c935_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_muellerprobe-1126am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.ab98ee5b537c
> “It would be interesting if there had been another ALP leadership vote since 2013. I bet Shorten would have done much better in the members vote.”
It depends who’s running against Shorten. 🙂
The ALP membership is left-wing, while Shorten is a right-winger and also lacks charisma.
Any leftist running against Shorten would get more votes.
Bennelong Lurker
A “keen observer” – That will have to be bemused. He insists he’s the only one who watches!
😀
Tributes for Michael Gordon continue.
Such a sad loss. He unflinchingly shone a light on issues such as asylum seekers and refugees, and indigenous affairs.
An investigative journalist who dealt in facts.
We are all the worse for his sudden and tragic passing.
Never really had an opinion either way on Sam Neill but after seeing him on Julia Zemiro’s Home Delivery last year I formed the opinion that he is a decent person who has had a very interesting life.
And dead funny in this https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/1139402307797/Hunt-For-The-Wilderpeople on SBS the other week.
How is this legal?
The present arrives out of a past that we are too quick to forget, misremember, or enshroud in myth. Yet like it or not, the present is the product of past choices. Different decisions back then might have yielded very different outcomes in the here-and-now. Donald Trump ascended to the presidency as a consequence of myriad choices that Americans made (or had made for them) over the course of decades. Although few were made with Trump in mind, he is the result.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/02/11-historical-moments-that-gave-us-president-donald-trump/
Only too true; and unfortunately we got Abbott & Turnbull and a dead Murray Darling river system.
I would not write off the power of a strengthening economy coupled with a massive middle class tax cut.
Maybe. Hope the ALP keep away from tax cuts and use the narrative that tax cuts mean cuts in services instead.
Good Morning
On leadership of the Labor party. I see what if by Newspoll again. Reality is Labor party rules. The decision was made.
Mr Shorten has had Labor being competitive for sometime. Plus he is moving to the left which is the basis of Mr Albanese being more popular.
There will be no leadership change. No matter how much the Murdoch mob bay for blood. See Corbyn’s win. The Murdoch media bayed for his blood and had parliamentarians on their side. Still did them no good. The membership vote reality trumped the Murdoch fiction.
Just as the rules of leadership trump the Murdoch baying for Mr Shorten’s blood.
As for the 2pp. Thats going to go downhill fast. Chaos is returning with the return of parliament as the citizenship saga keeps unrolling and the LNP gets blocked on legislation.
Expect more legislation blocked by NXT this session as the SA election heats up and Xenophon wants to differentiate himself from the Liberals.
I said the same thing a week ago.
Bennelong Lurker
I noticed the absence of rings last year, but didn’t want to be accused of trivialities!!!
Bennelong Lurker @ #100 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 6:06 am
You’re referring to a matter which is absolutely none of anyone’s business except Ms Tingle and her family.
The Newspoll gives everyone a bit to celebrate (except Pauline).
Turnbull can claim ‘the narrowing’, and improvement on PPM.
Abbott has 20% fewer Newspolls to wait for his chance.
Shorten can claim that it’s a small movement, considering a bunch of short term boons to Turnbull – the Libs do better over the summer break when they’re out of the news, Feeny, and a recent run of positive media spin for Turnbull.
Everyone can point out that it’s great ON is collapsing.
smh: Robert Doyle quits as lord mayor of Melbourne, days after being handed the key findings of sexual harassment investigation ow.ly/eG8Y30ic8Lh
https://twitter.com/smh/status/960279357527855104
Lizzie,
Exactly the reason I also did not comment at the time.
YaThinkN: Bigger story here is Coalition taking 2 points – but not off ALP – so can only assume it is One Nation, which is a worry, as was this due to their latest race-baiting?
If so, will they ramp up the race-baiting just to get ahead in the polls & take more points off One Nation? twitter.com/australian/sta…
Mother JonesVerified account@MotherJones
1h1 hour ago
Russia has been attacking top Republicans who criticize Trump http://bit.ly/2FtM7UF
Labor will continue to develop a narrative which is already cutting through that they are the only ones prepared and capable of addressing the struggle to make ends meet, and see the future for the impending horror that it is, and it is America.
Then in the lead up to the election the Libs will go full feral, UNIONS/DEBT N DEFICIT/TRUST/ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT/BORDER PROTECTION/UNIONS
etc….the MSM will duly report all of…..and the winner is…….
Good morning all,
All labor has to do is continue to oppose the hike in the Medicare levy for those earning less than $87000 and push hard at the hypocracy of the government on the one hand raising the levy and then giving a tax cut. Net result to wage earners is bugger all extra.
Revenue neutral approach by labor.
Interesting to note that Shorten was hit hard by commentators and the MSM when he announced this opposition to the hike got those on less than $87000 in his budget reply last year. Seems like a pretty good move by Shorten now.
Cheers.
Albo being more popular is a negative, Albo is hardly in the news so how could people get an opinion of him. Little I have seen of Albo reminds me of Latham, all fired up and going to get those libs.
Shorten does have the unfortunate association with Rudd in teaming up with him to get rid of Australia’s first female PM, Shorten also sounds like Rudd at times “what the liberal party (or Turnbull) have to answer is this”. There is a negative when Rudd appears, same happened when he was going off the planet when Turnbull refused to support him for the UN job.
Regardless that Shorten is so far behind in preferred PM yet labor have been so consistently ahead is hope that people have had enough of personality PMs like Howards steady hand on the tiller that steered Australia onto the ice berg it is still trying to get off, CanDo who couldn’t, and Kev07 I’m from Qld, I’m the messiah and if you don’t worship me I’m going to throw the biggest tantrum you have ever seen.
Wouldn’t it be nice if the preacher at the pollies’ service gave them a lecture on christian charity and caring for the poor.
theage: EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers could be forced to pay Transurban nearly $2 billion if the state government fails to extend the company’s CityLink tolling for an extra 10 years, according to finance services giant JP Morgan ow.ly/6muL30ic415 pic.twitter.com/MWLj2WggmK
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/taxpayers-could-be-slugged-1-8b-if-west-gate-tunnel-blocked-analyst-20180203-p4yzct.html?platform=hootsuite
So much sh!t being published in the MSM and by bludgers of post hoc rationalisations for a movement in the polls well within the MOE. The simple fact is Labor remains ahead and Turnbull is winning the beauty contest sideshow.
Boris
Albo no where near as bad as Latham!
But for me he’s a bit ‘tactical’ i.e. about how we deal with this week, rather than how do we deal with the next year.
I’m not into the charisma thing. You don’t have to love ’em to vote for them.
Tony Abbott on 2GB: “You’re right, it is the 26th losing Newspoll for the government.” But says it shows the govt can win if it “sharpens up”Tony Abbott on 2GB: “You’re right, it is the 26th losing Newspoll for the government.” But says it shows the govt can win if it “sharpens up”
Unfortunately, Toxic T is right.
Despite the ‘government’ being totally and utterly crap for 3 and a bit years the polls are in margin of error territory.
I saw Bill on the telly last night at his awkward, sing-songy-head-tilting-play-auditioning worst….had to look away…
Pegasus @ #96 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 8:54 am
Yes, yes, we know. You would have voted for Kermit the Frog. Because it isn’t easy being Green. 🙂
The primaries suggest the numbers went directly from one nation. However, with PHON at 5% I doubt there is much race-bait left. When the PHON vote is high they take a lot of the Lib vote, but at a modest 5% the preferences are probably 50-50 to the major parties, as it was at the last election.
This is a very petty government, sweating the small stuff while the country goes to the (fascist) dogs.
Feeny is big negative.
Viewed cynically it is not a good look at all. Feeny is the big winner out of all so far, he gets to keep his parliamentary pension and his entitlement to dual citizenship.
It is a pity we don’t have a federal ICAC or separate avenue for individuals to launch prosecutions like in the USA. I would like to see ones targeting those that would be viewed by a reasonable person as having knowledge that they were entitled to dual citizenship when signing the statutory declaration for nomination.
They have received government funds that they were not entitled to, perhaps knowingly, yet they are not called to account for it. Some who were caught up by vague legislation or changes in the other countries laws may be viewed as taking a reasonable view that they were not entitled.
But others, where their parent(s) were citizens of another country and they did nothing about it.
To me it looks like there may be a reasonable view that these people did not want to give up their entitlement and benefits that flowed from such entitlement.
It should be tested in an inquiry, maybe there is some documentation or conversation out there for some of these that shows that they were aware, this would show intent.
As for the greens I don’t now why the line keeps getting pushed that they outed themselves, it puts them in the same cynical group as the others.
mundo
I saw Bill on the telly last night speaking with reason and logic in answer to aggressive cliched questioning.
Albo no where near as bad as Latham!
Likely not Ctar1, just who he reminds me of when he fires up.
mundo
So you watched the first couple of minutes of the interview and then switched off? Preconceived notions reinforced.
Or, I can only say that, if you watched the whole interview, after Bill Shorten had relaxed and gotten his initial spiel out of the way, you would have seen the more engaging side of him.
Now, if you really support Labor you should have said that Bill should ditch the pre-prepared lines and wing it because he always does better in interviews when he does. 🙂
If I were a member of the Greens I wouldn’t have voted for Di Natale.
Oh wait. If I were a member of the Greens I wouldn’t even have a say in the party leadership.
All those bagging Bill Shorten based on Newspoll.
Tell us when Labor are changing the rules so there can be a leadership challenge.
If you can’t do that you are peddling a fairy tale.
I didn’t see Bill on TV last night, but I don’t need to see him on TV to know that he will make a great Prime Minister.
workmanalice: Jim Molan has been sworn in as the new Liberal senator for NSW. Gets congratulated by Lucy Gichuhi who is now sitting on Coalition benches next to Jane Hume.
Confessions @ #98 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 6:00 am
https://youtu.be/ulCw7RJ5eE8
Well yes, they can win, but the fickle edges of the TPP are always the easiest to peel back.
My view is that it is highly unlikely that the government are in a better position than they were at the last election, which they need to be, and it will take a lot of good luck to get there. If it was one poll I might worry about MOE, but a year of polling suggests 52-48 is quite firm.
The queen of ‘alternative facts’ is upset that people are going on TV and lying ‘under oath’ about the Nunes memo
Despite herself coining the phrase “alternative facts” to explain away President Donald Trump’s lies about the size of his inauguration crowd, White House adviser Kellyanne Conway bemoaned pundits on either side lying about the House GOP’s controversial memo on TV.
Discussing House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes‘ (R-CA) memo that alleges surveillance abuses against former Trump campaign aide Carter Page, Conway initially said she’s looking forward to see what Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), a ranking Democrat on the intelligence committee, comes out with in his own memo.
“Go ahead,” she said. “We’re for transparency and accountability.”
She then shifted gears and appeared to attack Democrats and other critical of the memo’s allegations and impact — and mixed up TV interviews with testifying before the FBI in the process.
“You can’t argue this, not under oath through the cable TV wars,” she said. “And that’s what’s happening. People are going on and saying things that are simply not true, hoping that they will come true.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/queen-alternative-facts-upset-people-going-tv-lying-oath-nunes-memo/
http://www.fresnobee.com/opinion/editorials/article196633904.html
A scathing editorial.
davrosz: Turnbull heaps misery on Shorten, writes unofficial Government propagandist @simonbenson, despite the Opposition winning its 26 consecutive #Newspoll theaustralian.com.au/news/malcolm-t…
ErykBagshaw: Parliament is back and I’m filling in on the blogging chair for the peerless @srpeatling. @Ellinghausen & @DomLorrimer and I have got party defections, dual citizenship and the 26th newspoll in a row…and its only day 1. #auspol smh.com.au/federal-politi…
Barney:
Lol! Of course.
Boris @ #122 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 9:36 am
The difference is that Albo has Labor values. As does Shorten.
Most voters would see an association with deposing Gillard as a positive. (Hint – check the polling of that era.)
Get over it.
lizzie @ #132 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 10:00 am
I saw Bill using a lot less Umms, Ahhhs and other filler words but he still slipped in a few. I could see his inner struggle as he tried to suppress them. He has obviously been putting in a lot of work and it is yielding results.
The content was good and his delivery keeps improving.
I’m already well over the beating up of the excitement over Christine (Tony’s sister) wedding. Daft question: Do you think there will be more gay weddings now? Cannot express my opinion of this imbecility.
Kyle GriffinVerified account@kylegriffin1
1h1 hour ago
“The Pentagon… is worried that the W.H. is moving too hastily toward military action on the Korean Peninsula that could escalate catastrophically. Giving the president too many options, the officials said, could increase the odds that he will act.”