Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

After taking a step forward in ReachTEL, the government takes a step back in the year’s second Essential poll.

The second poll of the year from the now-fortnightly Essential Research series has Labor’s lead widening from 53-47 to 54-46 — the primary votes will be with us later today.

Among the poll’s other findings are that 73% believe the cost of living has increased over the past year, and 75% believe energy prices have done so. Fifty-one per cent believe the cost of living has increased more quickly than their income, 28% that it has stayed even, and only 14% that their income has increased more. Eighty-three per cent thought the government should do more to make health insurance affordable, and 60% believed health insurance wasn’t worth the premiums.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents thought the political and economic system needed to be fundamentally changed, 48% favoured refinement, and only 8% registered satisfaction with the status quo. Questions on which party was best to handle various issues evoked the usual responses, with the Liberals doing better on managing the economy and terrorism, and Labor doing better on climate change and industrial relations (and, less predictably, housing affordability).

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,702 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Mari:

    I haven’t seen any spiteful responses to my comments which means they’ve come from PBers on my block list. So sad that they can’t catch a clue, but that’s obviously on them.

    When you next see BH please pass on my best regards to her and her family.

  2. The reports we are getting in Adelaide are that the new Perth stadium (don’t know its name as they sold it off as advertising) is nowhere near as good as Adelaide Oval and it’s a big disappointment.
    The pitch looks like it was covered in green algae, the food and transport was crap and it’s a dud.
    That’s just what we are hearing. 🙂

  3. According to bludger track Labor 2PP is at 52 and change. It’s primary vote is at 37 and change and the Greens are currently at 9 and change.

    Broadly speaking, it’s been that way for nearly 18 months.

    We know that not all Green primary votes go back to Labor, there are enough Teal Greens and anarchists in there to mean that Labor only gets about 7 out of 9 of those Greens votes on preferences. That must mean that Labor gets about the same or more preference votes from non Green voters. I would lay a sizeable wager that nearly all of those ‘other’ Labor preference voters sit on Labor’s right flank, not its left.

    If ever there was a time for the vast majority of progressive voters to reject Labor and either join an established left wing force like The Greens or start some other progressive mass movement it was during the Labor nadir 2011-2013. Yet the opposite has proven to be the case.

    Let’s face facts. The Green vote has simultaneously tanked at 2-3points below their high water mark and is increasing concentrated in small enclaves, whereas Labor seems to have recovered about 5 points on primaries and 6-8 on 2PP. It is clear that it owes about 40% of its current 52%+ 2PP to Centre-Left or straight up centrist voters, with another 10% contestable on top of that also in the middle.

    I’m pretending that it is all sweetness and light in House Labor. We are likely to lose Sydney, Grayndler, Batman, Melbourne Ports and perhaps Dennison for a generation or more – joining Melbourne. An old, yet competent government in SA is likely to be overrun by a CENTERIST populist. But this is all grist for the mill.

    The main game is securing our true base and contesting the centre. If we don’t panic and try to pitch to either one nation type bogans or green virtue signallers I beielve see could establish a progressive centrist movement that could last for decades.

    The LNP are both morally bankrupt and moribund policy-wise and the hard right and hard left on the fringes are both in the bunker with the general public. The main risk to labor is a left wing take over of the party and a headless pursuit of Green type virtue signalling down the political rabbit hole. That would be enough to keep even a moribund LNP in power for years. Just like United Voice and now Momemntum are keeping an even more moribund Tory party in power in the UK. …

  5. Andrew
    When we find the Beaumont children we will become a population mecca with safe streets, a world class health system and a booming economy that’s the envy of the country. 😉

  6. Dio

    Well, given that Optus Stadium is entirely different to Adelaide Oval comparisons are meaningless. I have been to Adelaide Oval in recent years and it is great.

    There have been two 50,000 plus crowd events in a week to launch the venue so understandably there have been teething problems. One of the events coincided with peak hour on the public transport system which was always going to be tricky.

    Some have complained about food and beer running out etc … but at least we don’t serve West End.

    But having lived in Adelaide, albeit a few decades ago, I know how proud you people are of your city, and with some justification. Just don’t mention the serial killers.

    But give it some time heh?

  7. Or you could revert to type and go back to putting neighbours into 44 gallon drums whilst claiming their welfare, or

    If a member of CIB – throwing homosexuals into the Torrens on quite Saturday nights, or

    If a Foreign Minister, dressing up in fishnets and hanging around in bars … with Christopher…

  8. A retired Federal Court judge is running against X as an Australian Conservative. Surely that’s inappropriate. Aren’t judges and ex judges meant to be independent of politics?

  9. So, with all the Trump conniptions… what ever happened to the Teabagger wing of the Repugs?? 🙂

    Dont hear much about them any more??

  11. I know … I know … we are all jealous of you ‘free settlers’ … but that just means that you lot actually made a free choice … to live in Adelaide … hmmm …

  12. Andrew
    That’s all in the past. We are forging ahead under Weatherills benevolent dictatorship. Nothing can stop us. We are living proof that the nature vs nurture argument was won by nature. Our non convict heritage will win through.

  14. The main reason the Greens vote when down between the 2010 and 2013 elections was that they were helping keep the increasingly unpopular ALP in power, with confidence and supply, not previously having done so and this alienated many people who voted Green in 2010.

    The proliferation of micro-parties also helped lower the Green vote by drawing away some primary votes, many of which came back to the Greens on preferences (including in seats where they were subsequently further distributed after the Greens candidates was eliminated).

  17. rhwombat / poroti

    NBC suit.

    We used to have an orange early 80’s NATO version in the office. Neatly packaged and found tucked in the back of an cupboard when we moved in.

    We found a coat rack for it and placed it just inside the entrance.

    The ‘Office Suit’. 😀

  18. If I was a unionist who got done over by a judge who pulls on a guernsey for Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives, I’d be pretty aggrieved and exploring an appeal.

  20. Imacca
    The Tea Party have started a movement to sack Rosenstein.

    Confessions
    If you were listing Kristol or Frum as anti Trump oh dear! They are Neocons. They want war with Russia and have done since Trotsky was killed (yes OI know before he was born but once they grew to hate).

    They are Israel first, hate Russia second, hate Muslims third and pro USA a distant 4th.

    By the way many, if not all Neocons started life as Trotskists.

  23. I have never drunk soggy hops.every state has had a crap beer or two. SA had two of the crapiest: Southwark and West End.

    And some of the best in Cooper’s.

    The new WA stadium management probably put a few noses out of joint by selling the beer rights to the well regarded WA craft brewer Gage Roads.

  31. Nicholas says:
    Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 9:08 pm
    They fan this whenever possible
    No, they don’t. If they did, they would advise their voters to preference the Greens ahead of the ALP in every contest where the final count is likely to be between the Greens and the ALP. They rarely if ever do this.

    The LNP are returning the favour as far as the Gs are concerned. The Gs seek support among Labor-positive voters and pref against the LNP in order to strengthen their appeal to their own core constituencies. The LNP are pleased to pref against the Gs too, as this also helps them solidify their own appeal to their core voters. In each case, the point of the strategies is to try to take votes away from Labor.

    Were the Gs and the LNP to swap prefs, then Labor would be the only counter to the LNP. The Gs and the LNP – who compete in the same geographical spaces – would end up cannibalising each other’s support and Labor would benefit.

    By running decoy campaigns on the notional “left”, the Gs have sough to draw votes from Labor that the LNP could never reach. But this does not mean the Gs are a “left” party. They are not. They are a bourgeois split from the centre-right that is nourished by opposition to Labor. We only need to read the recurrent Labor-baiting posted by Gs here at PB to affirm this observation. The Gs hate Labor. They see Labor as their natural enemy and seek to destroy it. And in this pursuit, they make common cause with the LNP.

    It is very obvious to any Labor campaigner that the Gs are not to be trusted. They are in every respect as duplicitous as is the LNP.

  32. Just heard on the grapevine that The Age will be doing an expose on the NBN.
    Not sure of all the details yet, but something to do with senior ministers of govt having interests in copper which is connected to the NBN.
    Hopefully I can get further details.

  33. Victoria there were direct conflicts of interests between the executives Turnbull hired to NBNco and their previous roles and shareholdings in Telstra. Why this hasn’t become a scandal..

  34. Cud Chewer

    From what little I have been told, these conflicts of interest to be exposed are going to be problematic for Turnbull and co.
    I am hoping to get more specific information.

  36. With Turnbull flipping and changing his mind on the NBN final connection link you’d be game even as a supposed insider to go ‘hard’ on copper futures*!

    😀

    (* – Plus he’d probably not be immune to ‘rooking’ his grannie if he thought there was a buck in it.)

  38. Acqualung

    Agreed. Not going to hold my breath but I have been having strong vibes of late that Turnbull was going to be caught up in another “gate”. Have no idea what, but when I heard about this today, I got my hopes up.
    Will have to wait and see I guess!

  40. So after all that “African Gangs” rubbish, the bad smell that is brian trumble stinks just as much as he did last year. Good the man is a maggot.

  42. Neville Morgan, Killer Karl from today is on the road with the police huntin’ gangs this week. Hahahaha (elmer fudd like laugh)
    Editted to add this week.

  43. Aqualung, if you mean Karl Stevanovic, I’m not a watcher but my sister-in-law is.

    I was staying once and was watching one Monday morning.

    Karl was in ‘where the f$ck am I’ mode and then some with his co-host working OT trying to cover for him.

  44. Yep CTar1 that Karl. I’m hoping the sane karl is on show and they turn up nothing but who knows with commercial networks.

  46. One day old report – Still cooking away:

    Fukushima nuclear disaster: Lethal levels of radiation detected in leak seven years after plant meltdown in Japan

    Expert warns of ‘global’ consequences unless the plant is treated properly
    …
    The energy firm found eight sieverts per hour of radiation, while 42 units were also detected outside its foundations.

    A sievert is defined as the probability of cancer induction and genetic damage from exposure to a dose of radiation, by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). One sievert is thought to carry with it a 5.5 per cent chance of eventually developing cancer.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/fukushima-nuclear-disaster-radiation-lethal-levels-leak-japan-tsunami-tokyo-electric-power-company-a8190981.html

  47. Karl will drive about the bad streets of Melbourne, and come across some polite Sudanese people (polite and shy) and the complete FUCKWIT will say, Sudanese gangs will not integrate…. WTF?

  48. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-jones-carwyn-jones-jeremy-corbyn-economically-daft-customs-union-labour-eu-withdrawal-bill-a8192006.html

    Jeremy Corbyn will change tack and pledge to keep the UK in the EU customs union, the Welsh First Minister has said.

    Carwyn Jones said he had discussed the issue with Mr Corbyn and Sir Keir Starmer, the Shadow Brexit Secretary, and believed a policy change was likely “in the next few months”.

    Urging his party leader to “keep all options open” and “be guided by what is best for working people”, Mr Jones said Labour should reject the “wrong option” of leaving the customs union.

    If, as seems most likely, Corbyn switches to a Remain policy, the Tories will inevitably split.

  49. briefly

    Corbyn will go 1/2 way – declare he wants to stay in the Customs Union. And that will be it.

    No definite ‘in’ or ‘out’ from him.

  50. Okay, Briefly, I’ll bite.

    You seem well informed of the history of the Labo(u)r movement generally and generally well read.

    But BOTH of your conceits in that argument ( a) that political loyalty is inherited or tied inherently to property) and (b) that it is impossible to critique leftist positions only from the right wing are not only trivially false given reflection on pretty much any facet of human sociological interaction but they are both historically false in the case of some significant examples in the history of the Labor movement. Did a Green member knockdown your trade hall to plant new growth timber using Work for the Dole people who were driven out of their jobs for cheap labor after the destruction of said trade hall ? Like who hurt you so badly that you repeatedly make those arguments about the Greens without ever seeming to realize those massively obvious things.

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