Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

After taking a step forward in ReachTEL, the government takes a step back in the year’s second Essential poll.

The second poll of the year from the now-fortnightly Essential Research series has Labor’s lead widening from 53-47 to 54-46 — the primary votes will be with us later today.

Among the poll’s other findings are that 73% believe the cost of living has increased over the past year, and 75% believe energy prices have done so. Fifty-one per cent believe the cost of living has increased more quickly than their income, 28% that it has stayed even, and only 14% that their income has increased more. Eighty-three per cent thought the government should do more to make health insurance affordable, and 60% believed health insurance wasn’t worth the premiums.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents thought the political and economic system needed to be fundamentally changed, 48% favoured refinement, and only 8% registered satisfaction with the status quo. Questions on which party was best to handle various issues evoked the usual responses, with the Liberals doing better on managing the economy and terrorism, and Labor doing better on climate change and industrial relations (and, less predictably, housing affordability).

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,702 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. ESJ @ 6:37pm

    You are clearly smoking crack. Strong swings too Labor -both 2PP and primaries across the board since the Labor nadir of 2011-13 – some in quite unexpected places – give the lie to your whole thesis.

    You are an awful shallow crank. You either simply don’t understand contemprary politics – just as you are clueless over that Latin maxim you keep quoting (although just like you Cato was a crank) or you are a simply dishonest troll. Perhaps a bit of both.

  2. “The reality is that the ALP is barely hanging on.”

    Yeah..sad that 54-46 polling. Barely hanging on by their toenails that……

    Naff off ESJ.

  3. Frankly Pollbludger’s comment section is not a place I’d recommend someone to go for political theory or practical understanding except for negotiating cliques and the dangers of group think and partisanship in mostly closed systems.

    The primary political analysis level here is : Everything the ALP does is perfect and good because they are the ALP and I like the ALP and everyone who ever says anything otherwise is (at least) a (closet) Liberal until they’ve said only nice things about the ALP / nasty things about other parties long enough to serve as penance. Penance will of course be forgotten the next time the praise of the ALP / condemnation of other parties is insufficient.

    It’s hardly edifying stuff.

  4. Elaugaufein -Not Logged In
    True. And the ##%$##$!! Anti-Vaxxers will kill more ‘Westerners’ than any of the terrorists we are supposed to be scared of . Grrrrrrrrr.

  5. Elaugaufein -Not Logged In @ #2587 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 8:32 pm

    Rex Douglas
    You’d be correct but you don’t understand that Labor only votes with the Liberals for the right reasons (getting that ALP elected or because they believe the same thing) but the Greens only vote with the LNP for the wrong reason (not voting like they are members of the ALP). It’s a fundamental distinction of the utmost importance.

    Seems to be one The Greens subscribe to too. 🙂

  6. “When, oh when, is Sydney going to approach the standard of rail transport in Europe?”

    Some time after at least one if the following occurs:
    – Godot arrives
    – Real Malcolm arrives
    – The Sun explodes
    – Rex says that, after all, Bill Shorten is OK
    – ESJ urges a vote for Labor, as it has amended its ways
    – Australia wins the Soccer World Cup
    – Tony Abbott supports an Australian Republic
    – …

  7. Elaugaufein -Not Logged In says:
    Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 8:53 pm
    Frankly Pollbludger’s comment section is not a place I’d recommend someone to go for political theory or practical understanding except for negotiating cliques and the dangers of group think and partisanship in mostly closed systems.

    ______________

    So why do you come here?

    Tired of talking to yourself?

    Though I guess that is still the case.

  8. Steve777 says:
    Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 8:59 pm
    “When, oh when, is Sydney going to approach the standard of rail transport in Europe?”

    Some time after at least one if the following occurs:
    – Godot arrives
    – Real Malcolm arrives
    – The Sun explodes
    – Rex says that, after all, Bill Shorten is OK
    – ESJ urges a vote for Labor, as it has amended its ways
    – Australia wins the Soccer World Cup
    – Tony Abbott supports an Australian Republic
    – …

    ________________

    I don’t wish to know that.

    🙂

  9. Confessions

    Apart from his days in the Shrub administration he spent years with the American Enterprise Institute. I would wear an NBC suit before approaching something from someone who got the tick of approval from those two organisations.

    NBC suit.

  10. Frankly Pollbludger’s comment section is not a place I’d recommend someone to go for political theory or practical understanding

    What a strange comment. Do you ever read or share William’s posts?

  11. They fan this whenever possible

    No, they don’t. If they did, they would advise their voters to preference the Greens ahead of the ALP in every contest where the final count is likely to be between the Greens and the ALP. They rarely if ever do this. Instead they preference the ALP ahead of the Greens because they recognise, correctly, that the ALP will side with them in parliament on important issues significantly more often than the Greens will.

  12. poroti:

    He’s a Republican who wants the party back from the crazies and the Russian sell outs. We see similar commentary here about the Liberal party from commentators like PvO and John Hewson, only the GOP has disappeared so much further far down the numpty rabbit hole compared to the Libs, aided by their electoral and parliamentary system.

    I used to shun Bill Kristol for the same reason, but at least the reality of Trump has made the scales fall from his eyes appropos Sarah Palin and he’s at least on the side of pushing back against insanity.

  13. Elaugaufein @8:25Pm

    A business will (or should if it wants to maximise profits) hire an additional staff member if the cost of that member is less than any additional revenue generated.

    The rate of tax on any extra profit is immaterial, the business is still ahead. Penalty rates do add to the cost if employing staff out if normal hours. On the other hand, opening additional hours costs nothing in rent or other fixed costs. Penalty rates could make a difference at the margins, but nothing like what is being represented by apologists for business. All those businesses opening on weekend before penalty rates were cut were making profits. Now they’re making more.

  14. Dan
    A) William actually posts stuff I find useful and interesting, you know the purpose of this website.
    B) Some respected psephologists occasionally post here with interesting and insightful commentary
    C) BK’s Dawn Patrol is an incredibly valuable resource.
    D) Sometimes there’s actually interesting discussions amongst the posters here. You’ll note my critique there was limited to the quality of the political analysis. Frankly even some of the most intolerable here sometimes say interesting stuff on areas of interest to them only somewhat or not at all related to politics, even Boerwar sometimes says interesting and informative things.
    E) I find the dominant clique(s) here pretty offensive and appalling in there behaviour at times and strive to disrupt their dominance when I have sufficient tolerance for the weird ongoing circle jerk / cat fight / dog pile so that new people might be less inclined to flee in terror.

    @ Steve777
    You’re assuming the business can automatically handle the startup cost of a new employee which is often frontloaded (finding, hiring, tools , training, etc). There really are instances where tax cuts or other overhead cuts help, I actually agree with you it’s a pretty small percentage of the time though.

    @Confessions
    William’s posts are generally not found in the comments.

  15. don @ #2579 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 5:21 pm

    poroti says:
    Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 7:58 pm

    Keeping the tolls after “pay back” as an income stream is a very good option. Either way the public wins.

    If the money was instead put into decent public transport for Sydney (in particular, I suspect Melbourne already has a functioning public transport system, and as far as I can tell, Perth is way ahead) then I would be even more pleased.

    Until I lived somewhere other than Perth I didn’t realise that we were somewhat unique in having a large number of bus routes terminating at major train stations rather than all heading into the city.

    Trains are still quite radial in nature and work on the premise that you want to travel to/from the city, something which the new Labor government’s Metronet is heading towards addressing. I’d like to see trams introduced as we see in Melbourne, and much better use of the river as a transport system as is seen in Brisbane and Sydney.

  16. don @ #2579 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 8:21 pm

    poroti says:
    Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 7:58 pm

    Keeping the tolls after “pay back” as an income stream is a very good option. Either way the public wins.

    Disclosure: I know only a little about Sydney, and almost nothing about other state capitals.

    Sounds good to me. I should not be crowing, but city folk are putting money into the coffers of state government, and the ones who use the super motorways are, in general, well off enough not to notice the cost.

    Though I am conflicted. Such grand highways, normally of no use to people like me, need to be paid for somehow, and the extra revenue after payback will help in the next round of super duper Sydney/Melbourne you beaut highways to hell, without my financial input.

    But good transport in major capital cities is a public good, which I should help pay for.

    If the money was instead put into decent public transport for Sydney (in particular, I suspect Melbourne already has a functioning public transport system, and as far as I can tell, Perth is way ahead) then I would be even more pleased.

    When, oh when, is Sydney going to approach the standard of rail transport in Europe?

    I would happily pay taxes to make it so, even though it is essentially of no benefit to me. We live in a society, and must expect to contribute to the efficient functioning of that society.

    Good public transport in our major cities is a very important part of that society.

    All citizens, no matter where they live, even in Woop Woop, should pay taxes to make it happen.

    Melbourne’s railway system is not as good as Sydney’s, but this may be changing due to increased patronage in Sydney leading to overcrowding. The same is happening in Melbourne.

    Melbourne virtually stopped investing in the railway network for about 5 decades but invested heavily in Freeways which are better than Sydney’s, but of course as fast as you build them, they fill up.

    Melbourne’s public transport is better only in the inner suburbs where the railway is complemented by trams and busses.

    The Andrews Govt is investing in rail and a key move is the level crossing removal which will allow more frequent trains. But that is only a start on what needs to be done.

  17. Confessions says:
    Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 7:53 pm
    mari:

    Are you talking about me?

    Glad came back neither you or @cat unless you have changed your name to Pegasus or ESJ. Surprised you would think I meant you sorry for the misunderstanding!

  18. Confessions

    Frum and Kristol are still the same arseholes who were OI Oi Oi for Iraq etc and will be Oi Oi Oi for any future Iraq. Iraq ‘created’ ISIS and all the shit and death for millions of people. These guys urged and cheered it on and would do so tomorrow and any day after tomorrow. Feck ’em. Their motivation for weeping about Trump and the GOP is that it gets in the way of their Neocon dreams.

    Frum and Kristol were not on high rotation as guests of Fox News for nothing.

  19. Mari:

    I didn’t think you were referring to me, but just wanted to be sure.

    Hope all is well with you, and btw thanks for keeping the Rowe toons coming. He’s by far and away my favourite cartoonist. 🙂

  20. Elaugaufein,
    especially since close to C@ts every interaction with Pegasus is trying to pick a fight and then complaining when Pegasus doesn’t engage.

    Typical ad hominem attack from a Greens’ loyalist in an effort to support another one.

    Now, if you had read my list, which I posted earlier, in contradistinction to the one Pegasus posted, about my posts from the get-go this morning, and this was before I even knew I would have to tally them, you would have seen that I was friendly and supportive of others, also discussing issues of the day. Except for one post which just put in neon lights for me the opportunistic bastardry of The Greens in the Upper House of the Victorian Parliament, where joining with the Liberal Party to torpedo a worthy project seems to be their MO in many instances. However, apparently I’m not allowed to express such an opinion because it will upset the delicate sensibilities of The Greens.

    And don’t think I don’t see that the sort of personal abuse that I receive from The Greens here is as disproportionately directed towards me as they seem to think mine is towards them.

    For, here we go again, as what is apparent to me is that The Sanctimonious Greens seem to think that they should be able to flood the blog with their criticisms of Labor and the FPLP leader, and make vile comments about a Tasmanian ALP candidate, such as Nicholas did at 5.38pm, but we, who are the subjects of the attacks, aren’t allowed to fight back!?!

    Or, if we do, we are to be subject to the sort of attempted withering criticism that you, yourself, elaugaufein, just delivered to me. Because ‘poor Pegasus’.

    Well, no. As ‘poor Pegasus’ can’t stand the heat when she comes into the kitchen. Or, in other words, she can dish it but she can’t take it. None of The Greens can. So they rely on vilification and derisory snark instead.

    All Labor supporters, such as myself do, and which Pegasus has singularly proved incapable of doing, is debate the issues she raises.

    And, yes, we become frustrated at times when there is no substantive reply, or the person in question becomes suddenly mute. Until they return again later with the same old, same old. And no answers.

    It’s not targeting her to be gratuitously nasty, it’s targeting her because she appears to have made it her raison d’etre on this blog to post as much misleading, or downright inaccurate material about the Labor Party as she can lay her computer mouse on.

    If you think I’m going to let that keep happening, then you have another thing coming.

    I’m going to come here every day and counter her blizzard of bs. Especially considering that the choice that the electors of Batman have is between a perennial Greens candidate, who is an alleged bully and who other Greens wanted to elbow aside once the seat looked winnable to replace her with, yet another, White Middle Class Male; or a Labor Party candidate who grew up in the area, is one of it’s people, even if she moved away and who cares anyway except The Greens, and who is a woman of substantial achievement and character.

    So get used to it, elaugaufein. And maybe The Greens should try and debate federal issues before the Batman by-election, as opposed to Victorian State issues? You know, act maturely for once. Try and win the seat as a result of the power of your policies.

    Good luck!

  21. poroti:

    Both are dyed-in-the-wool Republicans so would’ve been down with the Iraq war seeing as it was one of their guys leading that. No surprises there.

    But their commentary and views about where Trump has taken the country indicates that’s a bridge too far for them, and I’m with them. I’d much prefer GWB as Potus than Trump and his crime family cronies behind the levers of power.

    Frum and Kristol should be applauded for standing up for democracy and the institutions of the country at a time when it’s clearly critical they do so, rather than doing as so many other Republicans have done and simply fall into line behind Trump.

  22. Grimace

    Perth’s public transport wasn’t always so.

    The building of the Joondalup and Mandurah rail lines was the starting point of directing buses to rail stations.

    Brian Burke has his detractors for many of the things he did but one thing he did that should be recognised was to provide the foundation for the system we have today by committing to reopen the Fremantle line (closed by the Tories), build the Joondalup line and electrify the rest.

    What Perth’s transport system would be like without those decisions does not bear thinking about .

  23. Confessions

    Frum and fecking Kristol are the exact sort of people who caused people to lose faith in those “institutions” .No amount of buyers regret will absolve them.

  24. Elaugaufein -Not Logged In @ #2604 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 5:53 pm

    Frankly Pollbludger’s comment section is not a place I’d recommend someone to go for political theory or practical understanding except for negotiating cliques and the dangers of group think and partisanship in mostly closed systems.

    The primary political analysis level here is : Everything the ALP does is perfect and good because they are the ALP and I like the ALP and everyone who ever says anything otherwise is (at least) a (closet) Liberal until they’ve said only nice things about the ALP / nasty things about other parties long enough to serve as penance. Penance will of course be forgotten the next time the praise of the ALP / condemnation of other parties is insufficient.

    It’s hardly edifying stuff.

    What do you expect?

    This is a reasonably trafficked blog with a number of regulars who share a common interest, so there is going to be ongoing discussions and arguments. Not every post is going to be breathtakingly insightful, nor is every post going to be of interest to you. There are going to be periods, like the political hiatus over Christmas, where not much happens in politics and the Bludgers get restless.

  25. rossmcg

    Praise be that Burke won. The effing tories were all set to sell the land off if they won and the current train set up would have become impossible.

  26. Poroti

    Indeed.

    Even while the Mandurah line was being built the Tories were telling us buses would be better and the only people who would use it were retirees and single mothers (code for welfare cheats) from Mandurah. As you know there have been dozens of new suburbs built along the rail line and the trains are packed at peak times.

    McGowan’s plans to expand the system are timely.

    I don’t use public transport much but I had to go into the city last week.
    Five minute walk to bus. Less than 10 minutes to station. Wait two minutes for a train and then 16 minutes to the city.

    How our new you beaut stadium would go without trains to shift the crowd is something to ponder.

  27. poroti @ #2631 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 9:45 pm

    C@tmomma

    Nuance ? Don’t tell me you are now a Frum+Kristol ‘fanboi’ ? If so I have some hot Henry Kissinger views for ya .

    No, of course not, silly! I can discern quite clearly though, when a Republican is criticising a wolf in Republican clothing. Without having to buy the box and dice they are selling!

  28. The Westgate tunnel is not a worthy project. It is a project to flood North Melbourne, West Melbourne, Docklands and the CBD with traffic and under cut public transport. It is a bad project and the Greens will do their best to stop it.

    The Andrews Government`s whole attitude to planning scheme amendments acceptance or otherwise by the Legislative Council of Victoria is problematic. They keep claiming that the Legislative Council needs some kind of “legitimate grounds to revoke” to block the planning scheme amendments. This is just wrong. Planning scheme amendments require the consent of both house of Parliament and as such either can refuse it on their own authority with or without any agreed reason. Victoria is a bicameral parliamentary democracy not an elective dictatorship.

    The Government should focus more on negotiating with the parties in the Legislative Council and less on just assuming their policies will get a rubber stamp regardless of quality and wnging when they do not.

    The Greens have already achieved movement from the government on the Ashburton public housing project.

  29. Tom the first and best @ #2637 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 10:03 pm

    The Westgate tunnel is not a worthy project. It is a project to flood North Melbourne, West Melbourne, Docklands and the CBD with traffic and under cut public transport. It is a bad project and the Greens will do their best to stop it.

    The Andrews Government`s whole attitude to planning scheme amendments acceptance or otherwise by the Legislative Council of Victoria is problematic. They keep claiming that the Legislative Council needs some kind of “legitimate grounds to revoke” to block the planning scheme amendments. This is just wrong. Planning scheme amendments require the consent of both house of Parliament and as such either can refuse it on their own authority with or without any agreed reason. Victoria is a bicameral parliamentary democracy not an elective dictatorship.

    The Government should focus more on negotiating with the parties in the Legislative Council and less on just assuming their policies will get a rubber stamp regardless of quality and wnging when they do not.

    The Greens have already achieved movement from the government on the Ashburton public housing project.

    I never twigged that you were a Green before as you do post some good stuff. But not this time.

  30. poroti @ #2610 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 9:04 pm

    Confessions

    Apart from his days in the Shrub administration he spent years with the American Enterprise Institute. I would wear an NBC suit before approaching something from someone who got the tick of approval from those two organisations.

    NBC suit.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Now known as CBRN suits – also: noddies, wombles or Those Bloody Things. Even the best (powered) suits are horribly hot after a few minutes.

  31. rossmcg

    A couple or more elections ago Labor had a killer line when there was a bit of a train line expansion bidding war “What would the Liberals know about train lines ? They never built one ” . True but Uncle Colin still won and in Uncle Colin style immediately ditched his train line promises.

  32. poroti @ #2644 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 10:16 pm

    rhwombat

    Also MBDLFIT suits (My bum definitely looks fat in this suits )

    🙂
    The trick was to get the biggest suit possible, get as much air inside as possible while putting it on, and ON NO ACCOUNT fart. Fortunately all my Michelin man moments were during exercises where no one was expected to maintain the charade for too long – or use the atropine ports.

    It never happened in Oz, but I have worked with people who worked in Hong Kong during the SARS panic – and spent whole shifts in powered protective gear waiting to intubate victims. Fortunately, most PPE for the infective agents we come across is much lighter and easier than the CBRN stuff that were proposed after the Anthrax attacks in the US in2001 – though still too hot to spend much time in.

  33. rossmcg @ #2630 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    Grimace

    Perth’s public transport wasn’t always so.

    The building of the Joondalup and Mandurah rail lines was the starting point of directing buses to rail stations.

    Brian Burke has his detractors for many of the things he did but one thing he did that should be recognised was to provide the foundation for the system we have today by committing to reopen the Fremantle line (closed by the Tories), build the Joondalup line and electrify the rest.

    What Perth’s transport system would be like without those decisions does not bear thinking about .

    I completely agree. Perth would be a gridlocked disaster if the Fremantle, Joondalup (now extended to Butler and soon Yanchep) and Mandurah were not built, and the bus system did not feed from nearby suburbs into the major train stations.

  34. poroti @ #2641 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 7:14 pm

    rossmcg

    A couple or more elections ago Labor had a killer line when there was a bit of a train line expansion bidding war “What would the Liberals know about train lines ? They never built one ” . True but Uncle Colin still won and in Uncle Colin style immediately ditched his train line promises.

    The only rail line the Liberals have built is the Thornlie spur, which is a white elephant and will soon be extended to join the Mandurah rail line, and the under-construction airport spur, which would also be a white elephant if it didn’t happen to service locations other than the airport and have the potential to be further expanded to service the southeastern suburbs.

    What I am interested in, living in Ellenbrook, is how the Midland line, airport line spur, and Ellenbrook line spur, which all converge just east of Bayswater train station are going to operate together to provide an efficient service. The only viable option I can see is for the Midland line from Bayswater to Perth to be duplicated, or for some services to terminate at Bayswater, though there is not a lot of space at Bayswater train station for suitable termination facilities.

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