ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

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  2. I always liked Meghan McCain
    “It was Meghan McCain, the daughter of Senator John McCain, who summed up the feelings of many in a three-word tweet: “Suck it, Bannon.””

  5. Confessions says Thursday, December 14, 2017 at 9:06 pm

    There are a couple of things with this. 1. the election was fractured around the city-country divide, with wealthy suburbanites voting Democrat rather than Republican presumably because of Moore’s crude ignorance and those sexual predator allegations. 2. Trump also won the election because of the US electoral system, in particular the electoral college.

    I saw a table on Twitter showing that if this week’s vote had been replicated in a House election the Democrats would only have won one seat. That’s the extent of the gerrymandering in Alabama.

    Here’s a Washington Post article on it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/12/13/how-doug-jones-lost-in-nearly-every-congressional-district-but-still-won-the-state/?utm_term=.7d4b46e3dfeb

    Preliminary Alabama election numbers crunched by J. Miles Coleman of Decision Desk HQ reveal something astonishing: Democrat Doug Jones lost in six of Alabama’s seven congressional districts, but he still managed to beat Roy Moore by 1.5 percentage points in the entire state.

  6. Heard of the Voting Rights Act?
    That actually mandates gerrymandering to create majority-minority districts. In Alabama, the overwhelmingly Democratic, black majority areas are crammed into one district because of the VRA.

  9. Trump and Pence were warned in January that CIA had proof Putin directed election hacks: report

    President Donald Trump was notified during the transition that the CIA had conclusive proof that Russian president Vladimir Putin had personally directed hacking operations before the 2016 U.S. election.

    Washington Post reported Thursday that Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr., CIA Director John Brennan and FBI Director James B. Comey met with Trump on Jan. 6 to report the CIA “had captured Putin’s specific instructions on the operation.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/trump-and-pence-were-warned-in-january-that-cia-had-proof-putin-directed-election-hacks-report/

  10. Lindsey Graham: There’s a 70 percent chance Trump will attack North Korea if it tests another nuke

    Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has told The Atlantic that the chances of President Donald Trump launching a military strike on North Korea are terrifyingly high.

    Specifically, Graham said there was a 70 percent chance that Trump would attack Pyongyang if it had another nuclear test — and a 30 percent chance of launching an attack even if it didn’t.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/lindsey-graham-theres-a-70-percent-chance-trump-will-attack-north-korea-if-it-tests-another-nuke/

  11. Here are the 10 most ridiculous lies Trump told in 2017

    President Donald Trump is lying at a rate that is literally unprecedented — in fact, a recent Washington Post analysis has found that, since this past October, Trump has been making an average of nine false claims per day.

    Keeping track of Trump’s falsehoods is a mentally exhausting task — and ranking them in order of their ridiculousness is all but impossible.

    Nonetheless, we’ve picked out 10 particularly noteworthy Trump whoppers that demonstrate his dangerously unstable grasp on reality. Check them out below

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/here-are-the-10-most-ridiculous-lies-trump-told-in-2017/

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    NOTE: I will be unable to curate the Dawn Patrol tomorrow as I have to make a rush trip to Yorketown and back.

    Laura Tingle on the late dose of sheer desperation in Bennelong. Google.
    http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/a-late-dose-of-sheer-desperation-in-bennelong-20171214-h04emi
    Michelle Grattan writes that the ‘China factor’ is an unknown in Bennelong but a big issue for Australia.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-china-factor-is-an-unknown-in-bennelong-but-a-big-issue-for-australia-89181
    Peter Martin gives the government some credit for the jobs increase.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-jobs-boom-is-real-and-for-once-government-can-take-the-credit-20171214-h04lcd.html
    Michael Pascoe has his say on the matter.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-rate-falls-to-boom-time-levels-for-nearly-half-of-economy-20171214-p4yxpk.html
    Eryk Bagshaw reports that new research has found that cutting penalty rates across the country has failed to create any extra jobs or give workers more hours. Hardly surprising.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/penalty-rate-cut-fails-to-stimulate-jobs-survey-shows-20171213-h04csj.html
    Richo writes that the doing in of Dastyari was unnecessarily nasty and has damaged our ties to China. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/destroying-sam-dastyaris-political-career-has-been-needlessly-nasty/news-story/30d25d1423e1d2bf3be9fce9edadb495
    Judith Ireland on the thigh stakes for Turnbull with Bennelong.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/bennelong-byelection-hurdle-tensions-high-in-electorate-before-final-offensive-20171212-h03neu.html
    Our wonderful US Ambassador Joe Hockey says Trump would win again if an election were to be held today.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/donald-trump-would-be-elected-again-if-us-election-held-today-says-joe-hockey-20171214-h04yf6.html
    Helen Pitt was at the last sitting day of the CA Royal Commission.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/royal-commissions-message-to-australia-20171214-h04fin.html
    The most notable observation Justice Peter McClellan, the chair of the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse, made during yesterday’s final session was that children are still being harmed.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/royal-commissions-warning-abuse-is-still-occurring-should-not-be-ignored-20171214-h04nk8.html
    Richard Ackland writes that there are grounds to counter and reduce the expansion of religious freedoms, considering church’s cruel contribution during the marriage equality survey.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/14/dont-extend-churches-freedom-when-theyve-abused-those-they-already-have
    James Massola on naughty boy John Alexander for failing to declare some income.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/john-alexander-has-not-declared-rental-income-from-his-1400-per-day-country-estate-20171214-h04lnv.html
    Clive Palmer has written to Turnbull blaming him for the failure of Queensland Nickel. Google.
    /news/investigations/clive-palmer/palmer-blames-turnbull-for-nickel-plant-failures/news-story/fc5c1fd9fcf631a8e89c58d81ab80a57
    Sean Nicholls with an article about an unwelcome letter to Gladys about filling in the hole left by the clipping of ICQC’s wings.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/watchdog-proposal-is-gladys-berejiklians-unwelcome-early-christmas-gift-20171214-h04jb7.html
    The SMH editorial talks about how AGL is going its original way and closing Liddell and how the government has quietly acquiesced.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/agl-turns-the-government-down-20171214-h04r9s.html
    Internet Australia says “The way we’re heading now, whoever is in office in 2020 will have to deal with our biggest ever national infrastructure debacle. NBN Co will owe the government about $19 billion, which it is having to borrow to complete the rollout, and within five to 10 years will have to fund an expensive replacement of FTTN. No one seems to know how many billions this will cost. It’s not provided for in the NBN Co business plan.” Ouch! Google.
    /opinion/nbn-may-be-biggest-infrastructure-debacle/news-story/b98763951ae533590d7b06e1f802e0bc
    And Jennifer Hewett says that Turnbull has more riding in the NBN than Bill Morrow. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/malcolm-turnbull-has-more-riding-on-the-nbn-than-bill-morrow-20171214-h04fet
    Rather than being the “envy of the world” as the Government claims, our border protection policies are the subject of widespread disgust and condemnation, as shown by U.N. documents released under FOI.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/is-our-border-protection-regime-really-the-envy-of-the-world,11029
    The ACCC plans to oppose the proposed takeover of Woolworths service stations by BP Australia, saying the deal would substantially weaken competition.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/14/consumer-watchdog-to-oppose-bp-takeover-of-woolworths-service-stations
    Dave Donovan looks beyond Dastyari and the Labor Party for gents of influence. Where is the the MSM on this?
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/beyond-dastyari-liberal-party-agents-of-influence,11028
    Our friend Mehajer just can’t stop himself. He’s back for yet another court appearance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajer-accused-of-breaching-bail-conditions-by-contacting-estranged-wife-20171214-h04h24.html
    Steph Peatling says truth has been the first casualty in the Bennelong byelection.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/truth-the-first-casualty-in-the-bennelong-byelection-20171214-h04fkk.html
    David Wroe writes about foreign interference.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/want-to-see-a-trumprussia-case-here-then-keep-politicising-foreign-interference-20171214-h04tbo.html
    The NSW highway patrol is going for the Chrysler Pimpmobile to replace its Commodores.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/auto/2017/12/14/nsw-police-cars-chrysler-300/

    Cartoon Corner

    Jim Pavlidis goes to Bennelong.

    As does Paul Zanetti.

    And David Rowe.

    A nice one from John Shakespeare.
    David Pope on the CA Royal Commission report.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0

    Mark David questions Turnbull’s Chinese influence strategy.

    This is a ripper from Jon Kudelka.

    Matt Golding on the HSC results.

    Glen Le Lievre releases a new magazine.

    Alan Moir and a Christmas surprise.

    Jon Kudelka with a special delivery to the CBA.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/04385a4612fd26d0d5fef5d2b6ec5645

  14. Doubting the intelligence, Trump pursues Putin and leaves a Russian threat unchecked

    Nearly a year into his presidency, Trump continues to reject the evidence that Russia waged an unprecedented assault on a pillar of American democracy and supported his run for the White House. Interviews with more than 50 U.S. officials show that the personal insecurities of the president have impaired the government’s response to a national security threat

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/national-security/donald-trump-pursues-vladimir-putin-russian-election-hacking/?utm_term=.85110949fe45

  16. Bill Royce‏ @Billroyce · Dec 12

    As a political adviser in the 80s and 90s there was no greater sin than a factual error. Media would crucify you – or, more specifically, your boss would. Now it seems anything goes. Where on earth is truth in this new political landscape? #auspol

  17. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Roy Moore is seriously FITH! He still won’t concede defeat in the Alabama Senate election, and he has put out a weird video in the wake of it:

    Roy Moore issues fiery video refusing to concede: ‘Immorality sweeps over our land’
    In a statement, the Alabama judge railed against a litany of issues, including ‘abortion, sodomy and materialism’, before wishing viewers a ‘Merry Christmas’

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/14/roy-moore-issues-fiery-video-refusing-to-concede-immorality-sweeps-over-our-land

    !!

  24. I mean, isn’t that the thing with all this Liberal back-slapping about all the ‘Jobs’ they have ‘created’? It’s the old South African Apartheid/ Middle Eastern/Anywhere there are rich people, paradigm:
    that you can create jobs for a hell of a lot of people, as maids, cleaners, or any sort of servant/Service job, but they are not good jobs until they are well-paid with good conditions.

  25. Re Lizzie @7:20AM: maybe Malcolm should ask it to write him an Energy/Climate policy and an NBN policy. It would be sure to come up with something better.

  29. Alice Workman‏Verified account @workmanalice · 10m10 minutes ago

     More

    Karen Andrews
    Julie Bishop
    Russell Broadbent
    Peter Dutton
    Steve Ciobo
    David Coleman
    Michael McCormack
    Kelly O’Dwyer
    Christopher Pyne
    Michael Sukkar
    Also don’t declare income from their rental properties…

  30. Alice Workman seems to have her own mind – the rest of the CPG must hate her. Katharine Murphy, for example, was angry when Alice let it out of the bag that Cash’s office leaked the police raid.

  31. The Saturday forecast for Sydney is hot and sunny, like yesterday.

    I’ll be handing out HTVs in the afternoon, if there happens to be some interest from other bludgers I might post an afternoon update on the mood at the booth (Truscott St primary school).

  33. I do love the way KK is depicted in the political cartoons. Her hair is the distinguishing factor. Unique to her. Just needs a couple of quick flicks with the pen, and (vital for recognition) is immediately recognizable at any scale.

    There has been some excellent work from the cartoonists in general. They are excelling themselves.

    The Turnbull depiction -Malcolm dressed in a crunped top hat, wearing a moth-eaten, battered set of tails – is perfect as well.

    Alternatively, Mark David’s caricature – with a 2-dimensional, or cardboard-cutout Turnbull be-stickered with Band Aids – is also quite brilliant.

  34. I’ll be handing out HTVs in the afternoon, if there happens to be some interest from other bludgers I might post an afternoon update on the mood at the booth (Truscott St primary school).

    I’ll be at Meadowbank Tafe dressed as a horse.

  35. Trump Is So Unstable That His Advisers Have To Withhold Information From Him Or He Flips Out

    The President’s advisers have to structure Trump’s briefings so that Russian election meddling is never mentioned, because when Russia and the election are brought up, Trump goes off the rails.

    The Washington Post reported:

    U.S. officials declined to discuss whether the stream of recent intelligence on Russia has been shared with Trump. Current and former officials said that his daily intelligence update — known as the president’s daily brief, or PDB — is often structured to avoid upsetting him.

    “If you talk about Russia, meddling, interference — that takes the PDB off the rails,” said a second former senior U.S. intelligence official.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/12/14/trump-unstable-advisers-withhold-information-flips.html

  36. Former head of British Secret Intelligence Service says Trump-Russia dossier ‘probably’ credible

    Speaking with BBC’s Newsnight, Sir Richard Dearlove said of the dossier, which was compiled by former M16 officer Christopher Steele, “I think that there is probably some credibility to the content.”

    “I wouldn’t put it any more forcefully than that,” Dearlove added.

    The dossier, dismissed by Trump as “fake news,” contains allegations the Kremlin has “been cultivating, supporting and assisting Trump for at least 5 years,” and has sufficient blackmail against the president—including evidence of salacious sexual acts with “a number of prostitutes” in Russia. It also claims members of the Trump campaign had multiple contacts with Russian operatives during the election.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/former-head-of-british-secret-intelligence-service-says-trump-russia-dossier-probably-credible/

  37. Sohar @ #479 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 4:30 am

    Alice Workman seems to have her own mind – the rest of the CPG must hate her. Katharine Murphy, for example, was angry when Alice let it out of the bag that Cash’s office leaked the police raid.

    I think you’ll find any “anger” would have been directed to the journalist who gave up their source.

    As for her writing on the issue I can find neither.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/25/michaelia-cash-says-her-office-did-not-tip-off-media-before-awu-raids
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/25/michaelia-cash-and-the-rogue-staffer-when-political-theatre-goes-off-script

  38. Americans think Trump should resign now over harassment claims: poll

    a majority of American voters believe President Donald Trump should resign due to the allegations of sexual harassment against him, according to the results of a Public Policy Polling survey released Thursday morning.

    As the nationwide #MeToo movement takes down powerful men accused of serious sexual misdeeds, 53 percent of those surveyed said Trump should resign amid accusations of 19 women who claim the billionaire Republican sexually harassed them before he ascended to the nation’s highest political office.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/trump-should-resign-now-over-harassment-claims-poll/

  40. I see Trog was around last night to stick his oar in ….

    Trog Sorrenson @ #397 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 10:45 pm

    No one has claimed there will be no more gas peakers built. The operative word is “peakers”, and AGL has put most of this capacity as part of a long term roll-out. i.e. not an immediate priority.
    SA is currently running on well over 50% wind and solar, the rest is mainly gas, but gradually reducing.
    AEMO reduced the gas standby requirement last week, and is aiming to reduce it again early next year.
    The big battery has already had an impact on the market, not only in reducing peak pricing, but in providing ancillary services. Its availability alone is a service, in that it provides security even when it is not discharging into the grid.

    Nice try, Trog. But let’s actually have a look at NEM Watch for SA shall we?

    Right at this moment, demand in SA is 1391 MW, with gas generating 1391 MW – i.e. 100% of the demand is being met with gas, not renewables.

    But I suppose it could be worse, right? SA could be consuming power generated by coal. Oh wait – last night they were doing just that! As you were posting the above nonsense at 11pm, SA demand was 1518 MW, with 974 MW generated from gas and 257 MW from wind (and no solar of course, being night time). Which means they were importing 287 MW from the eastern states, which is coal generated. Fair enough, you say? Why waste it? Sure – but 75MW of the demand they couldn’t meet locally was being used to recharge their batteries.

    So last night SA was importing coal-fired electricity from the eastern states to recharge its batteries so that it can use them to avoid having to burn more gas.

    Way to save the planet, people!

  43. Melissa Davey is a Guardian journalist. This observation Of Turnbull never made it to print in the Guardian because it doesn’t fit the management’s narrative.

    “Melissa Davey‏Verified account
    @MelissaLDavey
    Turnbull tried to leave the child abuse royal commission final hearing through the back door without answering questions. We did not let him.”

  44. One needs to consider that Trump won’t go quietly (if he goes at all).

    Even Nixon had some respect for the office, eventually. But Trump could start a war that stuffs everything, for everyone, everywhere.

    Be careful what you wish for.

  45. #weatheronPB

    one of my better contributions to the PB ecology

    btw cool with grey sky but not much sign of rain in the Division of Macarthur today.
    #weatheronPB

  47. @Bushfire Bill – the investigators know this. If sufficient evidence of the president committing treason is found, we will simply wake up to news that he has been arrested and is being kept in “an undisclosed location”. They will not air the evidence in the media and then give him time to flee to Russia or do anything crazy.

    Edit: Should add, this is also for his safety. If they were to announce evidence of Trump committing Treason with the Russians, and then leave Trump in office, his life would certainly be at risk.

  48. VE

    Barnett’s departure will likely trigger a fight in the WA Lib lay Party.

    The good people of Cottesloe have already signalled they will not cop a party hack candidate foisted on them by the Matthias Cormann faction which is said to rule the party.

    Interesting times over the holiday season

  49. VE
    Trump can do crazy with the Biscuit any time he chooses.
    In the next thirty seconds, between tweets, he could start a General East Asian War.
    He is THAT powerful.
    We have better cross our fingers that the US military has flouted democracy and secretly disabled the Biscuit.

  50. Morning all

    Thanks BK, Phoenix and Ors for today’s offerings.

    Thanks fess for posting Sam Maiden interview with KKeneally.
    Hoping She can win Bennelong for the obvious reasons, but also to stick it up to the likes of Sam Maiden!

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