ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

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  2. Bemused:

    Surely you remember Sunday School?

    Our father, which art in Heaven, Harold be thy name?
    That’s his dad, not the boy.
    And what about the spook, did it have a name?

    You are forgetting basic christian doctrine. It is a trinity, an all-in-one. The father, the son, and the holy ghost are all the one person.

    If I understand it correctly.

    Which makes the whole crucifixion scenario very hard to understand, as I found out when I started thinking about it in Sunday School, about age nine.

    Never made sense to me. The teacher did not want to know when I asked about it, so I shut up about it. And went on with my daydreaming about super duper bicycles and cars. Better use of my time, really.

  3. But in any case, I say they should bring on their recidivist tax plan. The Republicans won’t have Democrats to blame for the deficit blow out, the cuts to essential services that middle America rely on, and the taxpayer handouts to the wealthiest of the wealthy.

  4. Dan Gulberry

    A ROFLMAO indeed. Most pollies would have moments like that but to see it happen to Mr Harbourside Mansion ……………….,’Ç’est Magnifique!

  7. Player One says:


    Sorry, but AGL is clearly proposing to build 750 MW of new gas capacity between now and 2022, since it is currently uneconomic to replace a coal-fired power plant using renewables alone. You can rage about this all you like. You can argue that it is wrong-headed, short-sighted, a waste of money and/or unnecessary. But you cannot seriously argue that it is not a fact.

    Can you give a source? I need a

    straight out quote, not your normal ‘read the article’

    bullshit.

    Nowhere can I find the 750 MW of new gas you propose. Where did that come from?

    The facts, ma'am, just the facts.

    Don't have them?

    Didn't think so.

  8. “In a joke made by biology students, the H is said to stand for ‘Haploid’; the implication being that since by the doctrine of the Virgin birth Jesus had no biological father, his genome would have been inherited entirely from his mother, the Virgin Mary.”

    Oh dear! Someone’s going to Hell.

  9. The English are getting crafty with their ring-ins. Not only could Dawid Malan’s parents not spell his name correctly, but they made sure they popped in to England and had their unfortunately named son born there, before returning to the High veldt. How many more Jaapies have they got stashed away?

    From Wikipedia

    Born 3 September 1987 (age 30)
    Roehampton, London, England

    Malan is a left-handed batsman and occasional leg-spin bowler who originally represented Boland in South Africa (2005/2006 season) and the MCC Young Cricketers in 2006. He joined Middlesex on 7 July 2006 and he made his 1st XI debut in a Twenty20 Cup tie versus Surrey at The Oval on the same day.

    In 2007 Malan was the top run scorer in the Second XI Championship with 969 runs at 51.00.[1] He made his first-class debut for Middlesex in June 2008, scoring 132 not out.[2]

    His father (also called Dawid) represented Western Province B, Northern Transvaal B and Teddington, as a right-handed batsman and a right-arm fast bowler.[3]

  11. don @ #356 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 9:34 pm

    Can you give a source?

    Oh, for goodness sake! It is on page 1 of the goddam document you insist you have read …

    Newcastle gas peaker – 250 MW
    NSW gas peaker – 500 MW

    Much as I hate to quote the appalling trash peddled by RenewEconomy, if that is not clear enough for you, try this …

    Richard Wrightson, he is the head of wholesale markets at AGL, said the company had deliberately put battery storage at the “back end” of the plans to replace Liddell from 2022, because that is when they will become economic.

    Get it?

  13. Steve777 says:
    Thursday, December 14, 2017 at 9:34 pm


    “In a joke made by biology students, the H is said to stand for ‘Haploid’; the implication being that since by the doctrine of the Virgin birth Jesus had no biological father, his genome would have been inherited entirely from his mother, the Virgin Mary.”

    Oh dear! Someone’s going to Hell.

    That’s where all the best guitarists and torch singers are. Would you rather be in the Hillsong chorus?

  15. “Wayne is a hoot! Rex is going to have to seriously lift his game! ”

    Yeah, but at least Rex is a person. Wayne is a crude bot with some kind of weak escalation algorithm in play.

    The vid of Truffles getting owned by KK is great. 🙂

    Interesting the comment from way down the thread about Truffles turning up to the RC for a photo, and Shorten actually hanging on and meeting people. Very different people.

  17. Oh, for goodness sake! It is on page 1 of the goddam document you insist you have read …

    Newcastle gas peaker – 250 MW
    NSW gas peaker – 500 MW

    So, we have:

    Wind:
    • Coopers Gap| 453MW
    • Silverton| 200MW

    Total there of 653 MW.

    • Solar offtake (NSW)| 300MW

    We are now up to 953 MW for renewables.

    • Newcastle gas peaker3 | 250MW

    Stage two:

    NSW gas peaker| 500MW
    • Renewables| 500MW

    So we are now up to 750 MW for gas peakers, and 1453 for renewables.

    Stage 3:

    • Liddell battery| 250MW
    • Renewables| 250MW

    So batteries and renewables are now 1953 MW vs 750 MW for gas peakers, much more than twice as much renewables vs gas peakers.

    You were saying?

  18. Turnbull also tried to scurry out the back door after the RC Report had been handed down so he didn’t have to answer questions from the waiting media. Chris Reason from Channel7, who has been following the RC closely, found him.

  20. Confessions

    Howard as PM proclaimed himself a cricket tragic.

    A former colleague, a real cricket tragic, spent many years in Canberra press gallery in the 80s and 90s, told me that in his conversations with Howard in that time cricket was never mentioned.

    He wouldn’t be the first pollie to jump on a sporting bandwagon. I wonder if he still goes walking in his Wallabies tracksuit now they are not travelling so well.

  23. Interesting the comment from way down the thread about Truffles turning up to the RC for a photo, and Shorten actually hanging on and meeting people. Very different people.

    Yes, Shorten put these photos on his facebook page earlier.

    https://www.facebook.com/BillShorten/photos/pcb.1556561501047072/1556561194380436/?type=3&theater

    I follow Turnbull on facebook too but haven’t seen similar from him. That’s not to say he hasn’t posted about it, just that if he did it hasn’t hit my timeline.

  24. Player One says:
    Thursday, December 14, 2017 at 9:53 pm
    don @ #366 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 9:52 pm

    You were saying?
    Do you not comprehend English, or are you just a nitwit?

    Refer to my previous response, upthread.

    Par for the course.

    Do you think anyone at all takes you seriously?

    Do you think that your garbage is worth more than a pinch of salt?

    Grow up. You are an adult, think like an adult, and write like an adult.

    If you can.

  26. Howard will have to arm wrestle me for that title. I am glued to the TV every ball and watch all cricket men’s/womens using appleTV and the Cricket app. My family hate summer because they only get fed during the breaks.

  27. And this comment on the Shorten fb photos is a reminder:

    When the coal mine collapsed in .. I think it was in Tasmania (?) in John Howard’s time. Bill Shorten was there to support people. YES he was the head of the CMFEU – BUT HE WAS THERE. John Howard wasn’t. Bill Shorten has a heart and soul, I look forward to seeing him as the next Prime Minister of our beloved country.

  29. A former colleague, a real cricket tragic, spent many years in Canberra press gallery in the 80s and 90s, told me that in his conversations with Howard in that time cricket was never mentioned.

    Interesting rossmcg. I only have his own admissions of being cricket tragic alongside him being photographed at various Test matches and appearing in the commentary box during his tenure as PM.

    Obviously what the public sees and what the insider sees are two very different things.

  31. Confessions

    I have never met him but there is no doubt in my mind that Shorten does some of his best work when talking to real people, not CPG hacks or in set pieces for TV.

    I saw video some of his “town hall” meetings last election and he genuinely engages with people and tries to answer their questions.

    There was none of the sneering superiority that many have said was feature of Turnbull on QandA on Monday

  32. jenauthor:

    You’re even more of a cricket tragic than I am!

    I haven’t downloaded the Cricket app but I do insist on the cricket being on in the staff room, irrespective of whether people are in there or not. That’s the extent of my efforts to engage when I’m at work!

  35. “On The Drum, Bongiorno suggested that the RC Church must, must, consider doing away with the celibacy rule.
    Obviously it’s not the only reason for abuse, but has to be considered a contributing factor in some cases.’

    Lizzie.
    No it is not. The celibacy rule is ridiculous but the pedos in the church was like an infestation of cockroaches, once one finds a good spot all the rest are attracted to the same nest. And the Anglicans had their fair share of pedos, but my understanding is they have faced up to this outrage better than the Catholics. (The Adelaide Anglicans were going to sell a valuable historic building to fund compensation, but funds were raised elsewhere.)
    Married priests mean more women in the church, along with female priests and now bishops (in non-catholic churches) so hopefully deter the cockroaches from finding a home in these institutions.

    They best way for the ordinary person to protest is to stay away, do not donate, and do not leave them any money in your will. Do not buy into their products, eg nursing homes etc unless they have properly addressed this outrage.

    If one is going to support anything, support those church programs who one knows are directly helping the needy. A few or more Bludgers do very good works at the coalface. Instead of putting money going into the collection plate, donate to the coalface. IMHO anyway.

  36. rossmcg

    There was none of the sneering superiority that many have said was feature of Turnbull on QandA

    Truffles considers it a sacred duty to force every person in a room to acknowledge that he is the “smartest person in the room”.

  38. Paul Kelly and his ilk are irrelevant in today’s Australia. Outmoded thinking, outmoded belief and an outmoded sense of social justice.

    Retire already!

  40. don @ #351 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 9:28 pm

    Bemused:

    Surely you remember Sunday School?

    Our father, which art in Heaven, Harold be thy name?
    That’s his dad, not the boy.
    And what about the spook, did it have a name?

    You are forgetting basic christian doctrine. It is a trinity, an all-in-one. The father, the son, and the holy ghost are all the one person.

    If I understand it correctly.

    Which makes the whole crucifixion scenario very hard to understand, as I found out when I started thinking about it in Sunday School, about age nine.

    Never made sense to me. The teacher did not want to know when I asked about it, so I shut up about it. And went on with my daydreaming about super duper bicycles and cars. Better use of my time, really.

    The whole thing was just so bizarre I don’t know how any rational being could believe it.

  41. Bushfire:

    I oscillated between crying jags and moments of angry frustration at the ‘system’ protecting and shielding those criminals, even the freakin’ police!!

  43. When the coal mine collapsed in .. I think it was in Tasmania (?) in John Howard’s time. Bill Shorten was there to support people. YES he was the head of the CMFEU – BUT HE WAS THERE. John Howard wasn’t.

    Well,I think it was a gold mine, and- truth to tell- Howard was warned off.

    If he’d stuck his Baldy Bill chromium dome anywhere near Tasmania that week he’d have been lynched.

  44. Fess – I have the luxury of working from home and doing hours to suit myself so I get to watch when I want (which is all day every day) – I am such a tragic that I’ll hold on and only pee during drinks breaks!

  48. No one has claimed there will be no more gas peakers built. The operative word is “peakers”, and AGL has put most of this capacity as part of a long term roll-out. i.e. not an immediate priority.
    SA is currently running on well over 50% wind and solar, the rest is mainly gas, but gradually reducing.
    AEMO reduced the gas standby requirement last week, and is aiming to reduce it again early next year.
    The big battery has already had an impact on the market, not only in reducing peak pricing, but in providing ancillary services. Its availability alone is a service, in that it provides security even when it is not discharging into the grid.

  49. Bushfire Bill @ #392 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 10:31 pm

    When the coal mine collapsed in .. I think it was in Tasmania (?) in John Howard’s time. Bill Shorten was there to support people. YES he was the head of the CMFEU – BUT HE WAS THERE. John Howard wasn’t.

    Well,I think it was a gold mine, and- truth to tell- Howard was warned off.

    If he’d stuck his Baldy Bill chromium dome anywhere near Tasmania that week he’d have been lynched.

    In addition, Shorten was AWU, not CMFEU (sic) or even CFMEU.

  50. As an LNP loyal member i don’t want Shorten in the lodge and I will do anything to help my beloved LNP stay in government and continue the jobs and growth programme this country needs and only the LNP will look after the people of this country.

    Shorten will only look after his corrupt mates in the unions and Turnbull will look after the hard working people of this country

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