BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Last week’s poll aggregate spike to Labor washes out after some better results for the Coalition.

First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.

With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.

Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 44
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  1. Australians can expect to pay double for their water supply within 20 years unless there are big reforms, a report from Infrastructure Australia says.

    It says a lack of investment in ageing infrastructure, population growth in urban centres and climate change will play a part in pushing up prices.

    The average residential water and sewerage bill could be $2,500 higher by 2040, according to modelling by Frontier Economics that was commissioned by Infrastructure Australia.

    The independent statutory body has recommended privatisation of state-owned water utilities, regulatory reform and more efficient use of infrastructure to keep bills lower.

    However, privatisation would be unlikely to have public support and economists have shed doubt on whether it will result in lower bills.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/08/water-costs-in-australia-to-double-within-20-years-report-claims?CMP=soc_568

  2. I haven’t claimed a victory. bemused has.

    Actually, it’s none of my business and I made a mistake in commenting. Apologies if necessary to all concerned.

  6. Lizzie

    I saw that water report and thought privatisation will not reduce water bills or solve water scarcity issues. We already know this from electricity privatisation.

  7. Bushfire Bill @ #202 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 12:43 pm

    I haven’t claimed a victory. bemused has.

    Actually, it’s none of my business and I made a mistake in commenting. Apologies if necessary to all concerned.

    Anything said on a blog is open for anyone to comment on.
    The notion that conversations are somehow “private” is just bizarre.

  10. Bushfire Bill,
    As if you are the only one with a life full of other things. However, I realise a personal perspective always focuses the mind better when needing to explain oneself.

    Firstly, to your incorrect assumptions:
    1. I don’t trawl back through posts.
    2. I do remember you commenting that people voting in the SSM survey, based upon your conversations with them, would vote ‘No’ due simply to their distaste of anal sex. As I remember it…because I don’t trawl back through posts….you had some sympathy for that concept…even though you, yourself, would vote ‘Yes’. It upset guytaur, and I supported guytaur. Simple as that.

    Also, I didn’t buy into your back and forth with guytaur over the bakers…maybe because I don’t obsessively focus on your contretemps with other posters and buy into them, in order to get at you Unlike what it seems to me you are alluding to. I am not that obsessive, or obsessed with you. Unlike what it seems to me you are alluding to.

    3. I did not bring up with you matters that occurred years ago at The PUB. You were the one who, in the most recent instance, invited yourself into a conversation I was having with another contributor here, with reference to Aspergers, as I remember it because I don’t trawl back through posts, as I’m too busy with my own life (despite the fact that it may seem otherwise right now, but that is simply because I have some downtime at the moment). So I outlined a bit of personal history to them relating to matters from back then. Also because I had noticed that, with your reappearance here on the new PB, you had started to throw your weight around, especially against Phoenix Red. Thus I related how you had form in that area.

    Simple as that, really. No obsession. Merely relating personal experience.

    Anyhow, I am well and truly over it. So if you could please cease and desist from casting unwarranted aspersions in my direction, I would really appreciate it. Thank you.

  11. Under no circumstances should water supply be privatised!!! Never!!!
    Look what happened with sewage treatment in SA and privatised water in other parts of the world (not to mention Flint Michigan in the US) One US State private supplier started cutting off supply for people who couldn’t pay their bills!
    How do you exist without water?

    So; never, not ever, at no time in the future.

    Even if the Govt. is willing to pay people to set up water tanks for their homes to collect rain water.

  12. Cumquat marmalade is without peer in the jam world …. never seen it on a shop shelf though.

    Pairs up beautifully with a g and t too.

  13. “Australian media fawned over Milo, says race commissioner”
    …..Amanda Meade the Guardian

    The same way they’ve fawned over One Nation

  14. booleanbach,
    Before you go. I do remember one thing about growing citrus in pots that was relayed to me by a gardener.

    You have to fertilise them regularly. 🙂

  16. Ides

    The report itself isn’t particularly hopeful. Sort of says Infrastructure doesn’t understand the problem with privatisation. My personal opinion is that vital services, water, power, communications, should always stay in government hands.

  18. I could accept the media reports of Labor’s citizenship problems if they would report the various coalition MPs who failed to respond to the members declaration.
    Feeney for example, could have reported, like several of the Liberal MPs that he had ‘renounced’,and his affairs were in order,he may not have been called on it. But he fessed up.

    Unless he provides documentation he deserves to go down, but the what about the suspect Liberals?

  19. bemused @ #207 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 12:52 pm

    Bushfire Bill @ #202 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 12:43 pm

    I haven’t claimed a victory. bemused has.

    Actually, it’s none of my business and I made a mistake in commenting. Apologies if necessary to all concerned.

    Anything said on a blog is open for anyone to comment on.
    The notion that conversations are somehow “private” is just bizarre.

    The notion that this has anything to do with privacy is just bizarre.

  20. The single biggest rort in water costs is that the cities paid for all the inland dams, weirs and water reticulation, and then the country folk refuse (politically) to allow any of that water to be sent to the cities.

    Around seven years worth of (irrigation) water per person costs you around $100.

    That $100 buys you in a normal year a meg’s worth of irrigation water.

    Their would be additional costs relating to water quality but these would be minor as the water quality in most of Australia’s inland-facing reservoirs is quite good.

    Based on around 350 liters per urban person per day.

  25. Boris:

    Except Hawkie, Mr Newbie, putting a beer in his hand and getting him to slag off against the lnp is worth half a percentage point every election I reckon.

    Yeah, I was thinking Hawke isn’t as bad to wheel out as the rest.

  26. And thanks for all the advice on finger limes, bludgers.

    A potted grafted variety has been ordered for Mrs U for Chrissy. However I don’t think she’d appreciate being given the moisture monitor.

  27. I do remember one thing about growing citrus in pots… fertilise them regularly.

    Not as often with finger limes tho’.
    In pots, keeping them damp through summer AND at the right pH and nutrient levels will be tricky. I reckon use a soil wetness tester to make sure they stay damp but not overwatered and maybe shade the pot but keeping the plant in part shade. Choice of potting mix will be important. Finger limes are on my list next year.

  28. Mr Newbie @ #225 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 1:27 pm

    Boris:

    Except Hawkie, Mr Newbie, putting a beer in his hand and getting him to slag off against the lnp is worth half a percentage point every election I reckon.

    Yeah, I was thinking Hawke isn’t as bad to wheel out as the rest.

    Hawke appeals to the bogan vote.
    Not too sure how many of that demographic inhabit Bennelong.

  29. Mogotrone – I’m not sure Malcolm has got away with it yet. No point labor firing off any bullets before Christmas. But I suspect in the new year we will be seeing legal advices about Greek citizenship, etc etc. Labor will keep painting this as a tainted parliament.

  30. Libertarian Unionist @ #225 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 9:31 am

    And thanks for all the advice on finger limes, bludgers.

    A potted grafted variety has been ordered for Mrs U for Chrissy. However I don’t think she’d appreciate being given the moisture monitor.

    Surely it all comes down to the instructions on how to use it? 🙂

  32. That is what annoyed me this week, much more so than Turnbull’s ‘victory’.
    The fact that Liberals with suspect citizenship faced little scrutiny it was all ‘get Feeney ‘.

    70% of Australian voters participated in the survey, people won’t forget that. Some, many are rusted on Liberals but the rest won’t be inclined to give Turnbull much credit for this.

  35. Anton re citizenship, as you say, I don’t think the ALP leadership were surprised by the incomplete returns by some Liberals they will deal with that in the new year.

  38. Cassidy on the ABC this morning said that the next round of trouble would be related to Spicer’s investigation into allegations against politicians on both sides involving sexual misconduct.

    Something for 2018?

  39. Bemused:

    Anything said on a blog is open for anyone to comment on.
    The notion that conversations are somehow “private” is just bizarre.

    Agreed. This is a public blog, and anyone can butt in with their two bob’s worth on any conversation.

  40. sonar says:
    Friday, December 8, 2017 at 12:52 pm
    So is PB a place to discus politics, or a competition to be won ?

    Yes on both counts. Check the posts.

  41. The point about being busy is that I was fucking busy, with no time to comment here. Are you thick or something? I wasn’t trying to make myself out to be a martyr or anything. Just stating that I’ve been busy.

    2. I do remember you commenting that people voting in the SSM survey, based upon your conversations with them, would vote ‘No’ due simply to their distaste of anal sex. As I remember it…because I don’t trawl back through posts….you had some sympathy for that concept…even though you, yourself, would vote ‘Yes’. It upset guytaur, and I supported guytaur. Simple as that.

    Show me where I used the words “anal sex” anywhere at any time in the past 10 years on this blog (hint: you can’t). And then show me where I said I was against it (hint: you can’t). It’s all in your imagination and is colored by your propensity to leap to conclusions about other people’s behaviour and motivations.

    You just HAD to drag Guytaur into this didn’t you? Why can’t you speak for yourself instead of hiding behind the “just helping a friend” schtick? I didn’t ask him to get upset. The post you refer to wasn’t addressed to him (or anyone else).

    So please quit inventing fairy tales where you come out as Mother Theresa and everyone is an anti-anal sex bigot.

    It’s unbecoming and (more importantly) plain wrong.

  44. Rossmore

    Cumquat marmalade is without peer in the jam world …. never seen it on a shop shelf though.

    There used to be a little shop on Cammeray Road (Sydney) that used to sell it and other ‘home made’ stuff.

    The owner used to encourage the locals to grow them and bring them in on a ‘swap’ basis for the jam she made.

  45. My five minutes of listening to redneck radio produced Uhlmann being “interviewed” by some lady shock jock in place of Smith. By what he said, it seems Uhlmann will continue to hound Dastyari into the new year.

    On that front, there seems to a concerted and coordinated effort by Turnbull, Brandis, Murdoch, Fairfax and shock jocks to hound Dastyari in the hope he will eventually crack.

  46. On cumquats:

    We finally have a very healthy bush which produces far more fruit than we could ever use. It makes a superb jam as noted above. It is even better than boysenberry jam or Mariposa plum jam. We are looking forward to trying brandied cumquats for Christmas, and we have enough jam till the revolution.

    It is hard to get to thicken, what I’ve come up with is a little pot that sits in the fridge full of jam, which is thickened by the action of the refrigerator sucking up the excess moisture. Works a treat. Add more thin stuff as you use it and the remainder gets much thicker. Occasionally transfer to another clean little pot when it gets down in level a bit, wash out the old one, and start again afresh.

    Our recipe for growing cumquats is an ultra-well drained basalt ridge soil (with basalt floaters) in front of a basalt stone wall facing east with daily sprayed bore water containing lime on a timer for ten minutes.

    Frost is a problem here for all citrus, but we’ve finally cracked it. Lemons and oranges have a very thick rind presumably because of the cold, but otherwise are great.

  49. Now that he has single handedly brought about marriage equality, Turnbull turns his attention to other things that a great and glorious leader does for his people:

    The Prime Minister said his sights were now on the government’s plans for tax, energy, education and childcare.

    Asked what the big theme for 2018 would be, Mr Turnbull said: “It is more money in the pockets of hardworking Australian families and business. It’s getting on with delivering the national energy guarantee. Getting on with our business tax cuts which are already delivering nearly 1,000 jobs a day – 85 per cent of them full-time, I might say – over the last year,” Mr Turnbull told ABC radio.

    He has foreshadowed personal income tax cuts ahead of the next election, although critics have warned the budget limits how large they can be.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/after-samesex-marriage-victory-malcolm-turnbull-shifts-his-sights-to-2018-and-the-economy-20171207-h011r1.html

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