First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.
With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.
Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.
As always, full results on the sidebar.
Very good, VE 🙂
Well, I am now definitely out of the sweep for predicting when Malcolm’s term as PM will end.
My guess was just before a Vote on ME went to the house.
The citizenship events recently have demonstrated how afraid the media (or those that own/control it) are of Labor. The extreme bias of the media in lying/misrepresenting Labor’s position is astounding even by the MSM/ABC’s own standards.
@sonar…
“I wonder how Abbott will explain to the over 70% of his electorate that voted YES why he abstained.?”
Probably the same way that the Labor members from Western Sydney electorates that voted no, explained why they voted yes.
If anything, Abbott acted more respectfully to his electorate by abstaining – rather than voting against their wishes.
Bushfire Bill,
I am not going to dignify that smear of my contributions here with a response. Except to say, as shiftaling commented, PB is not all about you. Your pontificating pronouncements are just as valid as anyone else’s; be they one line, or a hundred, C@tty, or considered. 🙂
triton:
This. He is that pathetic.
Former Prime Ministers need to go away, especially around the time of elections. To Julia Gillard’s credit, she has largely done this. I saw Kevin on something the other night and my first thought was “just go away please. You’ve had your time.”
Big A Adrian @ #153 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 7:08 am
Labor Members and Senators have nothing to explain.
The postal thingy was purely a mechanism to delay ME and to placate Coalition tensions and supposedly help then direct their vote.
I don’t believe any non-Government Member or Senator was under any requirement to take any notice of the postal thingy.
It was essentially the final barrier placed by opponents before the issue got to Parliament.
I think the media are, for the most part, conservative. In the sense that, they are generally upstanding members of their local community, who hold down steady, full-time jobs, keep their mortgages and bills paid, and generally see the worth of all that to society and don’t want to rock the boat and change the status quo.
Plus they are on good salaries and would likely not want to part with too much of it to support the rest of society, too much.
Labor might just, to their private minds, threaten that balance to a greater degree than they would approve of, personally. So a mindset of, ‘Labor goes against the grain’, prevails among them and becomes their de facto position to argue from.
@Big A Adrian.
“Probably the same way that the Labor members from Western Sydney electorates that voted no, explained why they voted yes.”
Really not convinced.
“I said the plebiscite was a bad idea from the start. Equality for minorities is not a gift from a majority, it is a fundamental right.” is a defence for the Labor MPs in Western Sydney. It is not a defence for someone that was such a big advocate for the plebiscite like TA.
“I voted according to the national and state results, like it were a referendum” is defensible from Labor MPs in WS, not from TA.
Former Prime Ministers need to go away, especially around the time of elections.
Except Hawkie, Mr Newbie, putting a beer in his hand and getting him to slag off against the lnp is worth half a percentage point every election I reckon.
Sen. Jeff Merkley Just Called On Trump To Resign Over Sexual Assault Allegations
During an interview on MSNBC’s MTP Daily, Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) called on Roy Moore to drop out of the Alabama Senate race, and President Donald Trump to resign over the 17 allegations of sexual assault against him.
Sen. Merkley said, “What we do know is this. That the individual running in Alabama, Roy Moore, has done things that are incredibly egregious, and he should drop out of that race right now, and by the way, for that matter, the President should resign because he certainly has a track record with more than 17 women of horrific conduct.”
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/12/07/sen-jeff-merkley-called-trump-resign-sexual-assault-allegations.html
Maybe if we can all see how pathetic and conniving Turnbull is, others can too?
spot on VE.
saying a plebiscite is needed to resolve ME and then ignoring it like abbott did is far different to supporting ME before the election and before and after the survey regardless of the survey results.
Trump Is Trapped Like A Rat As Robert Mueller Seals His Pardon Escape Hatch
Ari Melber revealed that Mike Flynn’s plea agreement requires him to cooperate with state and local authorities, which means that even if Trump tries to pardon himself and everyone around him, he won’t be able to escape state and local prosecution.
The agreement specifies that Mueller’s team gets to choose which state and local authorites Flynn will cooperate with. This means that states like New York, which is already investigation the Trump/Russia scandal for state crimes will get a chance to file charges that Trump’s pardon can’t touch.
A President can only pardon someone for a federal crime. For example, Trump could pardon himself, but if charges are filed against him in New York, his pardon, which is an admission of guilt could be used against him in a state prosecution.
Donald Trump is trapped. He has thought of the pardon as his ultimate escape hatch, but Muller just sealed his last way out closed.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/12/07/trump-trapped-rat-robert-muller-seals-pardon-escape-hatch.html
C@tmomma @ #162 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 7:22 am
We all have our glasses! 🙂
Post up on Victorian Galaxy poll:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2017/12/08/galaxy-50-50-victoria/
It’s obvious that Turnbull plays to the conservative ranks in his Party. Presumably, this is because he thinks by doing so he will help keep the Liberals unified and keep the coalition together at the same time. By aligning himself in the Parliament with the conservatives he is showing solidarity at the scene of their defeat. He will also be hoping this will help curb their calls for his replacement. Considering the conservatives are dominant in the Liberals, he also has little choice. He is their property. They can sell him off any time they want.
The so-called Liberal moderates had a very big win yesterday. It’s not so long ago – only months – since Pyne was publicly rebuked for proudly claiming they were achieving their agenda and that ME would be legislated before long. It turns out he was right. The conservatives have been routed. Their buddies in the media – the likes of Bolt, Credlin, Devine – will have been totally aghast at the scene yesterday, where nearly all the coalition joined Labor and the cross-benchers in a division to pass ME. They will regard that as tribal apostasy.
Waleed certainly raised a valid question about whether its really a good thing to have a change of government not because of any failure of policy or bad governance – but because of a quirky, archaic, and wholly outdated rule that is largely determined by the laws of other countries.
Waleed overlooks and ignores that tho the rule is quirky, archaic and outdated it still has to be complied with.
Politicians do not have the option and luxury of ignoring this tho they do with so many other matters regarding allowances and such.
We are required to comply with legislation, drafted, proposed and passed by these people, including outdated, archaic quirky legislation.
If we can’t trust them to comply how can we trust their legislation.
And there may well have been a deliberate wilfulness not to comply by some who did not wish to lose the benefits that dual citizenship confers, once revoked it cannot be unrevoked.
A President can only pardon someone for a federal crime. For example, Trump could pardon himself, but if charges are filed against him in New York, his pardon, which is an admission of guilt could be used against him in a state prosecution.
Phoenix Red,
The only problem I have with that scenario is that nagging thought at the back of my mind which is the story of, was it Trump, or some other politician, who, when charged with a crime in New York, made a campaign donation to the Attorney General (?), and then, magically, the charges were dropped.
Trump and his family will have made a lot of legitimate money from the Presidency, and, it still seems, money can buy you a hell of a lot of ‘Get Out of Jail Free’ cards in America.
Of course, the case will be followed to the nth degree, however, if Trump employs lawyers who enable him to wriggle out from under the charges, he will be as free as a bird.
Or, he might just sign an Executive Order to make him President for the term of his natural life. I wouldn’t put anything past him and his crime gang.
I guess that would be the District Attorney, if TV shows are a good guide. Electing them only invites corruption.
OK bludgers, a change of topic:
Have any of you had success growing finger limes in pots?
Waleed probably reflects conservative opinion more generally. I think this will be reflected in Bennelong, where the voters will eschew the chance to protest against Turnbull because of the disorder this could also bring to the Parliament and the government. They will not want to upset the existing very fine balance when there will be a chance to vote again in a general election soon enough. If the Liberals do lose Bennelong, it will be because of the appeal of the Right-Splits – the CDP, the Cories, the Lib-dems and the Gs – who together might undermine Alexander’s vote just enough to give KK a chance. But I doubt they will pull anywhere near enough support for this to happen. The conservatively-minded voters of Bennelong will choose order over uncertainty, and be applauded by Waleed for doing so.
C@tmomma says: Friday, December 8, 2017 at 11:31 am
A President can only pardon someone for a federal crime. For example, Trump could pardon himself, but if charges are filed against him in New York, his pardon, which is an admission of guilt could be used against him in a state prosecution.
Phoenix Red,
The only problem I have with that scenario is that nagging thought at the back of my mind which is the story of, was it Trump, or some other politician, who, when charged with a crime in New York, made a campaign donation to the Attorney General (?), and then, magically, the charges were dropped.
*****************************************************
I think it was Trump family lawyer that made a $ 25,000 donation to the reëlection campaign of the Manhattan District Attorney, Cyrus Vance, Jr – Ultimately, Vance overruled his own prosecutors. Three months after the meeting, he told them to drop the case. Kasowitz subsequently boasted to colleagues about representing the Trump children, according to two people ( ** see more below )
Somehow I don’t think NYAG Eric Schneiderman can be bought like Vance – all I have read about him is that he has a deep seated dislike/hatred of what the Trump Crime Syndicate has done to the reputation of New York and if he gets a chance of having them in his jurisdiction he will attempt to tear them to pieces ….
** https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-ivanka-trump-and-donald-trump-jr-avoided-a-criminal-indictment
briefly @ #167 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 7:29 am
The problem for the Lib moderates is that yesterday only came about because of Labor and the cross benches.
About 2/3 of Government members consistently voted for the proposed amendments.
They appear unable to produce wide support within their own ranks!
Big A Adrian
Well no…that is a crap comparison.
The idea of voting with a member’s electorate was raised by the RWNJs in the coalition because they though it might allow them to weasel out of voting in line with the national result.
The Labor members from Western Sydney had a very good reason to vote “yes”: the overwhelming majority for the “yes” case at both state and national levels.
Abbott, by contrast, has ignored the national vote, the state vote and his own electorate.
Stop The Gloats!
RC into Child Abuse due to be released next week, but only to the government.
Groups calling on turnbull to release it when he gets it, but he could hold back, ME passing has dampened xmas for some already, releasing the report would totally destroy it for them.
Someone in the LNP has learnt to count! 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/08/queensland-election-labor-to-form-government-as-lnp-concedes-defeat
C@tmomma @ #163 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 11:22 am
But we all have special insight 😉
HC orders a recount in Tasmania to fill the two Senate vacancies.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-08/tasmanias-two-new-senators-to-be-determined-by-recount/9240136
Sohar @ #153 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 11:07 am
Yeah, and when Labor get back in they are unlikely to do anything about it, if experience is any guide.
Then you’re living in the past.
I hardly ever post here nowadays C@t. In the last year I’ve been full-time renovating a house, and defending my wife against a bunch of arseholes. I’ve been up and back to the North Coast four times in the past 8 days at 4 hours each way, looking at houses. I’ve got shit with lawyers, real estate agents, buyers – and sellers – involving a couple of million dollars, pest and building reports, development applications and major renovation works which are driving me batty with frustration, exhaustion and worry. One of my best mates was diagnosed with terminal prostate cancer on his birthday last Friday and we have been attending to him and his wife, who is frantic. It’s Christmas, so therefore doubly mad and difficult to get anything done or any kind of sensible response from anyone. I come here on odd occasions when I have a few spare moments and something to say. I have no control over who reads it, who trawls back through my old posts from months ago in order to quote me back at myself, or who has what agenda about ancient battles from half a decade ago.
In other words, I don’t have the time to make any “claim” on Poll Bludger, assert any ownership, dominate any threads or slag off real or imagined enemies, and do not wish to and never have. I sink or swim based solely on my contributions, even when I was here a lot more (which is fucking years ago, but you never let up about it).
I haven’t addressed anything towards you today, or even in recent weeks except to wish you good luck in Bennelong (as I will be there too spruiking for Labor just as hard as you will be) and do not wish to, except to ask you to stop the kibbitzing. Why you stuck your bib in with an uncalled for snarky comment about anal sex I don’t know. I never bloody mentioned anal sex once, at any time now or in the past. The detail you have brought up in all in your own imagination and colored by your biases and preconceptions.
Will you please give this vendetta bullshit up? FFS!
From my previous link.
Surely they are having a lend!
LU – I’ve grown kumquats in pots.
That photo of Burnley and Entsch must come close to winning photo of the year.
Diogenes @ #185 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 8:13 am
Yes, it demonstrates real emotion! 🙂
Have any of you had success growing finger limes in pots?
grown dwarf lemon tree in pot, think trick is picking off any fruit on there when you buy it and not leaving any fruit on there too long as seems to sap the plant.
also regular personal watering helps, one a weeee k, have nice big green leaves.
triton @ #49 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 8:38 am
A very odd conclusion given she was plainly wrong.
Don’t trust my opinion though, I am not a lawyer. Read what Psyclaw wrote.
The only sense in which she “won” was by employing the “Guytaur tactic” of just keeping on and on endlessly in circles until the other side just walks away.
kudelka
boris
Big yes to that.
Then they claim a “victory” about as important as a ripple in a puddle full of tadpoles.
LU
No expert, but from growing other citrus in pots, the critical thing is avoiding moisture stress – either under or over watering. Follow the general guidelines for citrus re pH and fertiliser. As finger limes are slow growing do not over fertilise – small applications every month or so.
Suggest you get one of those cheap moisture meters.
bemused
The only sense in which she “won” was by employing the “Guytaur tactic” of just keeping on and on endlessly in circles until the other side just walks away.
zoomster was consistent throughout. The circles were figments of your imagination.
BB
I haven’t claimed a victory. bemused has.
LU: I’m with you — finger limes in pots?
Can you get them from any nursery or only specialty ones?
How did you go about it? Mulch, pH, plant food etc –I would like to try some but my experience with tomatoes was not good; so i need lots of mentoring!
Turnbull on the verandah at Yarralumla giving himself a congratulations speech after the GG has signed the marriage equality act … giant w#nk.
lizzie @ #31 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 7:02 am
I’m sure it’s less to do with the dollar amount and more to do with being worth +2 points in Newspoll.
$1600 is $1600. +2 point gains in Newspoll are priceless. Especially when “losing 30 Newspolls in a row” has been established as the benchmark for judging a PM.
boolean – I had no problem with the kumquats.
Trog’s right about watering – don’t drown them.
They’ll need plenty of sun and air movement so don’t put the pots in a corner.