BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Last week’s poll aggregate spike to Labor washes out after some better results for the Coalition.

First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.

With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.

Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 37 of 44
1 … 36 37 38 … 44

  1. Given the manner in which Centrelink treats its ‘customers/clients’ it is my strong belief that the ALP should introduce some real legislation with tungsten teeth next time they become the Govt. Even today apparently Optus got the wet lettuce treatment for dudding customers; and as for all those upstanding corporations that pay zero tax – – -.

    Time to introduce some real penalties and fully fund the authority responsible.

  4. It does seem astonishing that Turnbull is getting a platform by himself to speak ahead of the Bennelong byelection – surely the ABC should have scheduled/rescheduled it for next week unless they have some legitimate way to provide balance.

  5. Question @ #1800 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 4:20 pm

    CTar1 says:
    Monday, December 11, 2017 at 4:09 pm
    BK / Question

    I definitely won’t be watching Turnbull on Q & A.

    I think for the benefit of those around me, I will do the same.

    Very hard for the ABC to get the balance right. I wouldn’t want to be Trioli.

    Trioli can occasionally surprise as she did with ‘kids overboard’, but generally I don’t hold her in high regard.

    I will be interested to see how Turnbull performs and how much damage he manages to do to himself.

  6. CTar1 @ #1803 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 4:25 pm

    bemused

    Why do you think anyone else needs to know?

    You seem to – after all you commented on it.

    I am curious as to why anyone would think others were interested in what they were not doing.
    I could fill the blog with posts on what I am not doing, haven’t done, won’t do etc.
    Would anyone be interested or care? Only fairly sick individuals.

  7. Inspiring to hear how eager the Nationals and Liberals are to serve the people in the Senate. They all just want to serve the people.

    “Ms Nash’s seat was for a six-year term.

    Documents filed to the court by Barrister Geoffrey Kennett suggest senators Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and John Williams should be moved up the list, and Mr Molan placed at the bottom where he would get a three-year term.

    The court heard there are questions about whether the issue should be resolved by the High Court or the Senate, but Justice Stephen Gageler agreed the court should consider the matter.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-11/fiona-nash-senate-replacement-jim-molan/9246774

    (Sarcasm off) So the Libs and Nats are squabbling so badly over who gets the six year term that they have to argue with each other in the HC, wasting the HC’s time. The toys are well and truly out of the cot. Quite apart from the lack of progress in parliament in the past six months, how much is parliament now stuffing up the functions of the High Court? How many people are waiting on judgements, delayed by politicians incapable of agreement or competent administration?

  8. I’ll be watching Q&A with a hightened sense

    bemused @ #1806 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 4:34 pm

    CTar1 @ #1803 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 4:25 pm

    bemused

    Why do you think anyone else needs to know?

    You seem to – after all you commented on it.

    I am curious as to why anyone would think others were interested in what they were not doing.
    I could fill the blog with posts on what I am not doing, haven’t done, won’t do etc.
    Would anyone be interested or care? Only fairly sick individuals.

    It would certainly be no less interesting than your current stellar contributions, which seemed almost entirely comprised of petty little pot-shots at other posters, and add nothing of value or interest to this blog.

    Usually I ignore you, but sometimes you are such an obnoxious dick it is very difficult.

  9. Indeed, despite all the bluster and ranting, it is not in Turnbull’s interest to see Dastyari smoulder away into a pile of ashes: the scandal over his association with a Chinese benefactor linked to Beijing is a rare and welcome pre-Christmas gift to be cherished and protected.

    Turnbull can celebrate the totally foreseen win in New England and, outrageously, even claim some of the credit for it; he can cheer that Newspoll has finally edged forward and that the numbers foretell a crushing defeat rather than a complete wipeout. But his party room wanted to see claret flow — bring back the biff! And Turnbull, given the easiest of targets, is happy to try and oblige. When do you kick a man? When he’s down.

    Sam Dastyari is well and truly down, but the real bonus would be if he tried to get up again. It is not time to bring him to ignition point just yet — there is much more hate to be unleashed until the final conflagration.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mungo-maccallum-turnbulls-pre-christmas-gift-of-sam-dastyari,11020

  10. Conservative commentator Norman Arbjorsensen in full lament about the Turnbull Prime Ministership.

    Looking set to lose the next election on current polling, it is likely he will fade quickly from the scene. “He risks being remembered as yet another of those whom Donald Horne characterised more than half a century ago as the second-rate people who run the lucky country and sometimes share its luck”.
    http://insidestory.org.au/malcolm-turnbull-and-the-liberal-partys-identity-problem/

  11. bumused

    I don’t have any obligation to satisfy your ‘curiousity’.

    I am curious as to why anyone would think others were interested in what they were not doing.

    Possibly some other commentor from either before or after my comment who were discussing whether they’d watch the interview will elucidate you – but doing that would be a major undertaking so they may decide to not bother.

  12. Regarding Qanda.

    Tony Jones stated several times during 2017 that Turnbull had been invited to appear several time this year. He did not accept the invitations.

    Last week Jones announced that he was going on leave (presumably having already put arrangements in place) and that Trioli was on, and that Turnbull had agreed to appear.

    Bennelong might have something to do with Turnbull fronting up, not to mention the opportunity for a “I gave Australia SSM” rant.

    On the other hand, to fit in with the bubble perhaps I should say that Jones is scared of Turnbull, and that Guthrie has especially asked Trioli to do the show so that Turnbull will be dealt with favourably.

  13. adrian @ #1808 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 4:42 pm

    I’ll be watching Q&A with a hightened sense

    bemused @ #1806 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 4:34 pm

    CTar1 @ #1803 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 4:25 pm

    bemused

    Why do you think anyone else needs to know?

    You seem to – after all you commented on it.

    I am curious as to why anyone would think others were interested in what they were not doing.
    I could fill the blog with posts on what I am not doing, haven’t done, won’t do etc.
    Would anyone be interested or care? Only fairly sick individuals.

    It would certainly be no less interesting than your current stellar contributions, which seemed almost entirely comprised of petty little pot-shots at other posters, and add nothing of value or interest to this blog.

    Usually I ignore you, but sometimes you are such an obnoxious dick it is very difficult.

    Your reading is obviously as selective as your posting which consists of little more than moans about the MSM in general and the ABC in particular.

  15. Re weather: Sydney is about to enter a heatwave which will last a week and probably longer. Penrith on Sydney’s Western outskits will get 8 consecutive days on 33+ counting today, possibly more, peaking at 41 on Thursday. Most of Sydney is up for a week of 30+. peaking around 39. Those who live near the beach or in harbourside mansions will get cooling breezes and a run of high 20s / low 30s.

  16. Q&A is a bit like preaching to the converted. I’m sure the awkward bits are more likely to get reported.

    It worked well for Shorten, and I enjoyed the tough questions, but opposition leaders need all the exposure they can get. Shorten is also easier for the ABC to handle. All they have to do is ask him a few too many times about something sinister to do with unions, and of course, press him on the difficult stuff.

    The difficulty for Trioli is how hard/soft she presses at the key moments. Perhaps Tony Jones should have done it to make the comparisons to Shorten’s treatment easier? Either people like me will be yelling “Why didn’t you press him on that bloody non-answer?” Or people like Savva will be yelling “Perhaps if you had the manners to listen then Malcolm could answer the question. Show some respect!”. If it goes badly you just know the ABC will get the blame.

  17. Make no mistake, the Bennelong bi-election is not only a test of Turnbulls leadership, it is a huge test of Bill Shortens leadership.

    With the govt so terribly on the nose, if Labor can’t win with a stunningly good campaign from Keneally, the unpopular anchor Bill Shorten must be looked at.

  18. Rex

    Surely it should be a test of di Natale’s leadership as well. If both the major parties are so teh evil, The Greens candidate should get a decent swing to them.

  21. Jackol @ #1802 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 4:30 pm

    It does seem astonishing that Turnbull is getting a platform by himself to speak ahead of the Bennelong byelection – surely the ABC should have scheduled/rescheduled it for next week unless they have some legitimate way to provide balance.

    This is Trumble’s last throw of the dice. If he can’t declare a win on Saturday, the whole blatant scam explodes in time for Christmas. The whole Dastyari distraction is a scream of primal fear on behalf of the Sydney Spiv/Arsehole Complex, and Trumble is their only card. Their ABC is now Guthrie-compliant, The CPG have had their source rort exposed by Michaeliar Cash’s exposure, Fairfax is hostage to the Domain Cash Cow and the Murdorcs can’t find a minority to scapegoat with both hands and a torch since Jerry Hall distracted Rupert, but Trumble still can’t buy a positive poll. We all (even ESJ) know he’s going down, but if he loses Bennelong, it will be the Gretch that stole Christmas, and burnt turkey all round.

  24. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, December 11, 2017 at 4:49 pm
    Conservative commentator Norman Arbjorsensen in full lament about the Turnbull Prime Ministership.

    Looking set to lose the next election on current polling, it is likely he will fade quickly from the scene. “He risks being remembered as yet another of those whom Donald Horne characterised more than half a century ago as the second-rate people who run the lucky country and sometimes share its luck”.
    http://insidestory.org.au/malcolm-turnbull-and-the-liberal-partys-identity-problem/

    A very good read. Thanks GG.

  25. zoomster

    This line really strange –

    Neville was a great heartthrob at university, my mother always told me

    Turnbull saying this as though he took tea with his mother every day …

  26. Q&A may be fun to watch tonight. I would like to see Malcolm’s reaction if the audience starts to laugh at him.

    Which is quiet possible if he spruces his achievements…. You know the NBN, SSM, NEG (that no-one understands).

  27. The Nationals Michael McCormack is the centre of attention at the HC tomorrow ,if I am not mistaken ,re his eligibility under S44.

    Not citizenship but “indirect benefit ” matters bought on by labor I think.

    I do not know what stage the matter is at tomorrow but perhaps it may be one clearer how much, if any, shit McCormack is in.

    Cheers.

  29. I just had a look at the High Court lists for December and cannot see anything set down for tomorrow.

    I may have jumped the gun. Perhaps it is scheduled for the new year.

    My mistake.

    Cheers

  31. Thanks also for the Mark Kenny link GG.

    Call it smart, or perhaps crazy-brave. Noteworthy at least, that a government with a majority of just one chose right now to prosecute the most muscular case against a foreign power since the Cold War, while also contesting a byelection in a seat notable for that country’s nationals.

    Kenny has the annoying habit of going tit-for-tat with his own articles. Surely that is the main story?

    Meanwhile, Shorten and colleagues are lumbered with the same trite talking points which emphasise, lamely, that Dastyari has already “paid a high price” for his contacts with wealthy Chinese benefactors and for the nature of those.

    But do voters really consider losing an obscure responsibility as deputy Senate whip while keeping a $200k job to be “paying a high price?” Unlikely.

    “For his contacts with wealthy Chinese benefactors and for the nature of those”.
    Shouldn’t all MP’s that fit that rather loose descriptor be feeling the same heat? “Glorious foundation” comes instantly to mind.

  34. jenauthor says:
    Monday, December 11, 2017 at 5:46 pm
    I like to call him ‘Maybe Kenny’

    Love it.

    For some reason his constant shifting doesn’t bother me. It’s a clever way of appearing not to have an opinion on anything.

  35. Standard of today’s journalism and editing? I found this in a story about the grave of Henry Dunkley, who was murdered near Gunning, NSW, in 1842:

    …”Several years ago I searched without luck for the slab-hut where Dunkley was murdered with (or using) a metal detector hoping it’d pick up coins or something similar,” says Brown, adding, it’s possibly on other side of the creek which is and damn hard to get at.”

    No, Mr Dunkley wasn’t murdered with a metal detector in 1842, but one was used some 170 years afterwards to search for coins at the presumed murder site. Then there’s the missing quote and oddly placed commas. Obviously no one checked it before publication.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberra-life/why-is-this-a-grave-in-the-gunning-sewerage-works-20171204-gzyt60.html

  37. Question

    For some reason his constant shifting doesn’t bother me. It’s a clever way of appearing not to have an opinion on anything.

    It’s very Turnbull like except Turnbull appears to have an opinion for about 2 hours.

    So, slightly different but the effect is the same.

  40. Rex

    It really wouldn’t shock me if Turnbull stepped down next week regardless of the bi-election outcome.

    Do you think the election could swing either way?

  41. Labor frontbencher Andrew Leigh has started a petition to be tabled in parliament for former Labor MP Gary Johns to resign from his new role as commissioner of Australia’s charity regulator.

    …”Putting Gary Johns in charge of the charities commission is like putting Ned Kelly in charge of bank security,” said Leigh, who is shadow minister for charities and not-for-profits.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/ginarushton/a-labor-politician-is-urging-former-labor-mp-gary-johns-to?utm_term=.doXkZp2NV#.alYP5AwMq

  43. Questions Trioli Should ask Turnbull tonight:

    1. Are you proud of the way you made LGBTI suffer?

    2. Do you think Australian democracy is cheap at $1.7 million?

    3. Would you regard a debt of half a trillion dollars a good thing or a bad thing? If a bad thing, why add $85 billion in tax cuts to the problem?

    4. Wages as a proportion of GDP are at a historic low. Did you enjoy making that worse by voting FOR penalty rate cuts?

    5. Why is subsidizing the burning of coal good but subsidizing a car manufacturing industry bad?

    6. Why do you trust Joyce and the Nationals with $13 billion of MDB money, $2 billion of Farm Free Money money and $5 billion of NAIF money?

    7. Are you proud that Australia’s 2017 CO2 emissions is a record?

    8. Do you regard a dying Great Barrier Reef as (a) bad, (b) good, or (c) could not give a stuff?

    9. If poor people are dying because they cannot afford energy, why are you forcing them to use expensive coal energy instead of cheap renewables energy?

    10. Why are you poking China in the eye with a burnt stick? Will you take full personal responsibility if China turns off either or both of the Chinese student or the Chinese tourist taps?

    11. Why do you look the other way when bosses steal $17 billion in super and routinely steal wages from their workers?

  46. Did you all listen to the inaugural Miranda Live internet radio show on DailyTelegraph.com.au today?

    The lovely Miranda was due to interview: much heraldic fanfare: Malcolm Turnbull!

    Be still my heart.

  47. I don`t think Turnbull is likely to step down. His main aim as PM is staying PM and thus he is likely to try and hold on.

  50. CTar1 says:
    Monday, December 11, 2017 at 6:00 pm

    It’s very Turnbull like except Turnbull appears to have an opinion for about 2 hours.

    So, slightly different but the effect is the same.

    Indeed.

    I know Turnbull wants tax-cuts, but who doesn’t?

Comments Page 37 of 44
1 … 36 37 38 … 44

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *