BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Last week’s poll aggregate spike to Labor washes out after some better results for the Coalition.

First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.

With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.

Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 36 of 44
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  1. Anyone know what is going on in/with the Senate Replacements.

    ABC News 24 has breaking news across its tracker thingy.

    Moylan might not of ticked all the boxes and they have raised concerns about our Senator Connie and someone else.

  4. Little A

    I wonder why Tony Jones isn’t fronting Q&A?

    Management must have decided he couldn’t be trusted on live TV to keep his zip done up for the 50 or so minutes of the interview?

  5. Big D (for some reason I love typing that)

    Exactly, that’s why I can’t quite believe it. Very odd.

    Also a warm welcome to the new posters.

  6. “Moylan might not of ticked all the boxes”.

    There are a LOT of boxes Molan doesn’t tick! And they have nothing to do with citizenship.

  8. I suppose I should watch Q&A, but don’t know if I can endure it. Surely the audience will have to be allowed to ask a few tricky questions?

    Also, this kind of thing is incredibly difficult for the ABC to do right. I have the feeling I won’t be a fair judge of the way they handle it.

  10. So Nash (3rd on the ticket) is out, Hughes (6th) can’t replace, Molan (7th) apparently can’t either. Fang (8th) is in NSW parliament, which would leave him ineligble, right?

    If 4th and 5th also go, as the ABC is indicated might happen, we would check the eligibility of 9th, 10th and 11th on the list.

    NSW Libs only put forward 12 people on their list. If 2 out of 9th-12th are ineligible, we could find out what happens when a party exhausts their full list.

  11. If the best “interference” China can get is having one member of the opposition unsuccessfully ask another member of the opposition to not have a brief meeting with someone China doesn’t like, then isn’t the real story here that China is absolutely and completely incompetent at interfering in Australian politics?

  13. Pedant @ #1740 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 3:01 pm

    “AGL says its plan to replace Liddell will deliver energy at a cost of $83 per megawatt hour, as opposed to a $106 per megawatt hour should Liddell remain open.

    Mr Frydenberg said it was important to understand that “not all electrons are created equal”.”

    (www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-dismayed-at-lidell-closure-despite-prime-ministerial-entreaties/news-story/751f98a853c088ccbd598bb943e382b0)

    As I understand it, all experimental evidence to date is that electrons are completely indistinguishable in all identifiable characteristics.

    Electrons, yes, but quarks – no. They have colour: Red, Blue and Green – hence their political spin. They also have flavours: up, down, charmed, strange, top and bottom.

    I understand that Baarnaby Beetrooter is going to establish a Large Hanson Collider under the Liverpool Plains to study the effects of accelerating dense nuclei of duttonium to relativistic speeds in a Giant Ginatron, then having a non-binding plebicollision of beampaths to achieve short-lived decay products (like sympathy) generated by the Poorleen exclusion principle. All the naked quarks so far detected are down, strange and bottom, and hence are blue.

  15. C@tmomma @ #1722 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 2:19 pm

    Does this suggest that internal polling has told Alexander the jig is up, or he really is that dumb, or both?

    Latest quote from John Alexander had him saying that there would be 50-100 votes max in it.

    If thats the case he is conceeding a swing against him of about 10%.

    If 10% of voters really are going to swing I don’t think there is much sympathy around for him.

    But NOT believing a word he is saying would be an excellent starting point.

  18. rhwombat @ #1763 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 3:37 pm

    I understand that Baarnaby Beetrooter is going to establish a Large Hanson Collider under the Liverpool Plains to study the effects of accelerating dense nuclei of duttonium to relativistic speeds in a Giant Ginatron, then having a non-binding plebicollision of beampaths to achieve short-lived decay products (like sympathy) generated by the Poorleen exclusion principle. All the naked quarks so far detected are down, strange and bottom, and hence are blue.

    I’ve been wondering whether Dutton was a top or a bottom. Do you think the Large Hanson Collider would be able to determine the answer?

  19. Lizzie,

    We have to remember that ABC presenters are not trained journalists…

    Marilyn Shepherd‏ @MarilynShephe15 ·
    Hey stupid ABC, Frydenberg’s mother did not ”escape the holocaust to Australia”, she came as a 7 year old child 5 years after the fucking holocaust.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-03/minister-josh-frydenberg-faces-possibility-of-dual-citizenship/9113982

    If you look at the documentation posted on ABC for Frydenberg’s mother, she was born in Budapest in October 1943. The Nazi’s occupied Hungary in March 1944, and remained until they were defeated by the Soviets in October 1944.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungary_in_World_War_II#German_occupation_of_Hungary

    “In September 1944, Soviet forces crossed the Hungarian border. On 15 October, Horthy announced that Hungary had signed an armistice with the Soviet Union. The Hungarian army ignored the armistice, fighting desperately to keep the Soviets out. The Germans launched Operation Panzerfaust and, by kidnapping his son Miklós Horthy, Jr., forced Horthy to abrogate the armistice, depose the Lakatos government, and name the leader of the Arrow Cross Party, Ferenc Szálasi, as Prime Minister. Horthy resigned and Szálasi became Prime Minister of a new “Government of National Unity” (Nemzeti Összefogás Kormánya) controlled by the Germans. Horthy himself was taken to Germany as a prisoner. He ultimately survived the war and spent his last years exiled in Portugal, dying in 1957.

    In cooperation with the Nazis, Szálasi attempted to resume deportations of Jews, but Germany’s fast-disintegrating communications largely prevented this from happening. Nonetheless, the Arrow Cross launched a reign of terror against the Jews of Budapest. Thousands were tortured, raped and murdered in the last months of the war, and their property looted or destroyed.”

    I’m no friend of the LNP but when people start trying to rewrite the events of World War II and the Holocaust to score cheap political points it makes me feel sick to the stomach.

  21. Mr Frydenberg said it was important to understand that “not all electrons are created equal”.”

    He can say that again – my feed-in tariff to the grid is a teensy percent of the cost i have to pay them for the same electrons.

  22. Trump sex assault accusers to appear on Megyn Kelly’s show before Monday press conference

    Three women who have accused President Donald Trump of sexual assault will appear on Megyn Kelly’s NBC show at 9 a.m. on Monday before they have a national press conference at 10:30.

    The women are calling for an investigation by Congress of sexual misconduct by the president.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/trump-sex-assault-accusers-to-appear-on-megyn-kellys-show-before-monday-press-conference/

  24. a r says:
    Monday, December 11, 2017 at 3:29 pm
    If the best “interference” China can get is having one member of the opposition unsuccessfully ask another member of the opposition to not have a brief meeting with someone China doesn’t like, then isn’t the real story here that China is absolutely and completely incompetent at interfering in Australian politics?

    As someone pointed out earlier, Howard didn’t see the Dalai Lama.

    From what we know so far, the Sam story seems stuck at ‘faux serious tut-tutting’. And yes, that requires media compliance to maintain for so long – Cash got about 10 seconds worth when she was caught out.

  26. Trump drinks 12 Diet Cokes a day and has wild mood swings depending on his TV coverage: report

    1. He watches a ton of television, but lies about it.
    2. He’s erratic, and his behavior is often determined by how his news coverage looks.
    3. He still doesn’t read and needs briefings tailored to his short attention span.
    4. He drinks up to 12 Diet Cokes a day.
    5. For all his complaints about his news coverage, he absolutely hates not being talked about.
    6. He persists in fabricating his own reality.
    7. He thought being president would be like ruling a monarchy.
    8. Nancy Pelosi offered this blatant and totally undisguised shade.- “He was utterly unprepared for this”
    9. Despite the mere five years that separate them, Trump made fun of Bernie Sanders’ age.

    MORE : https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/trump-drinks-12-diet-cokes-a-day-and-has-wild-mood-swings-depending-on-his-tv-coverage-report/

  27. “Has anyone seen JA saying he wouldn’t stand at the next election from a reputable source?”
    Alexander had announced that he would not be standing at the next Federal election before the by-election was announced. Why would the by election change that? He has probably been pressured to stand this time – imagine he’d be happy to leave parliament after Saturday anyway rather than just waste his time in Canberra.

  28. Diogenes says:
    Monday, December 11, 2017 at 3:41 pm
    Has anyone seen JA saying he wouldn’t stand at the next election from a reputable source?

    I would also like that. A few mixed messages coming out of the L-NP campaign. Internal polling at 54%, then JA saying there is only a handful of votes in it.

  31. Mr Frydenberg said it was important to understand that “not all electrons are created equal”.

    Seeing the world in terms of hierarchies is central to the Right Wing world view. I’m a bit curious about electrons being ‘created’. Does Mr Frydenberg think they’re created by power stations and sent down the wires?

    Obviously, electrons ‘created’ by coal power are far superious to your weak, left wing renewable electrons. Then you have spin. Only those spinning up (right) will do, done of those leftie down-spinning electrons. At a pinch, electrons ‘created’ by gas will be tolerated – after all, petrolium gas isn’t renewable.

  32. This is what Catherine King said. I’m not sure how happy I’d be about having to wear this kind of comment. You’d need to be a pachyderm.

    “But I think that Bill has made it very, very clear that Sam’s political career is not going very far and I think they are matters for Sam to reflect upon,” she said.

  33. So the biggest abuser of human rights (Dutton) calls Dastyari a double agent asking Tanya to not meet with a human rights chines activist!! Chunder and puke at our media!

  34. Roxanna (AnonBlock)
    Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 1:47 pm
    Comment #1693
    Sorry to be off-topic, but it’s ages since I’ve posted here (and I am a supporter). Is there any link on here that shows how to do a quote and a link? It’s been so long, I’ve forgotten. Cheers all, and nice to see some familiar names again.

    Could you please advise your means of communicating with the blog.

    For instance:- are you you using a Windows, or Apple system.

    Are you Using Firefox or Chrome (preferably).

    The ordinary copy and paste work as usual. Copy a link address and paste works fine.

    C@tmomma has posted a little that may be helpful. See post at C@tmomma (Block)
    Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 3:11 pm

    Do you know how to use HTMS tabs ?

    Bye for now. 😎

  35. As this week unfolds you can’t but wonder what part Turnbull’s renown bad luck will play in the run up to Saturdays by-election. Alexander doesn’t really want the job, Dutto starts on about double agents, General Jim getting trigger happy about going to war in the Senate, Falinski, Frydenberg and that’s Monday.
    Not over yet, Turnbull to appear on TV tonight expecting to be laudered for his brillance ….. danger danger!
    Tony, Kevin and Eric wrapping presents and strangely quiet.
    Teetering Turnbull…..Tueday, tragic or triumphant?

  37. Latest quote from John Alexander had him saying that there would be 50-100 votes max in it.

    Probably trying to rally the voters and prevent the protest vote, plus a try for ‘underdog’ status. May or may not bear any relation to actual polling or to reality.

  38. bemused (Block)
    Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 3:52 pm
    Comment #1780

    You read my sleep deprived mind. Using ARs C+ may be enough to enable Roxanna to use the blog more easily. 😍

  39. Dutton top or bottom? What part of the anatomy would he be best compared to? Probably don’t need the Large Hanson Collider to work out that.

  40. Public Service Announcement.
    For those bludgers wishing to display a < and > in a comment correctly, you must html escape them by using &lt; and &gt;
    lt = ‘less than’
    gt = ‘greater than’

  41. KayJay @ #1788 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 4:04 pm

    bemused (Block)
    Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 3:52 pm
    Comment #1780

    You read my sleep deprived mind. Using ARs C+ may be enough to enable Roxanna to use the blog more easily. 😍

    I was a bit behind as was doing other things, but when it seemed she would get no response I jumped in only to then see you respond.
    Better double response than no response.
    Cheers

  42. @ Steve777 – don’t forget under promise, over deliver’.

    If the Libs polling is pointing to an 7% swing against them, then they will retain the seat, but it could lead to headlines along the lines of “if replicated at a general election, would see the Coalition lose X seats, including Dutton, Frydenburg, Pyne etc”

    If you set expectations for a close contest, it looks like a success when you win by 1-2%, even though it’s naturally a safe Liberal seat.

  43. Question @ #1758 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 3:20 pm

    I suppose I should watch Q&A, but don’t know if I can endure it. Surely the audience will have to be allowed to ask a few tricky questions?

    Also, this kind of thing is incredibly difficult for the ABC to do right. I have the feeling I won’t be a fair judge of the way they handle it.

    Just to be fair to Trumble’s fragile confidence I think that they should have the audience comprised of 85% coalition voters.

    The ABC is nothing if not fair.

  49. John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950 · 2h2 hours ago

    Donations to political parties are tax deductible so many companies see donating to @LiberalAus (where they can get a direct return on investment) as a better use of their money than paying tax into general revenue. A company that donates more than it pays tax is corrupt. #auspol

  50. CTar1 says:
    Monday, December 11, 2017 at 4:09 pm
    BK / Question

    I definitely won’t be watching Turnbull on Q & A.

    I think for the benefit of those around me, I will do the same.

    Very hard for the ABC to get the balance right. I wouldn’t want to be Trioli.

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