BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Last week’s poll aggregate spike to Labor washes out after some better results for the Coalition.

First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.

With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.

Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 35 of 44
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  1. Also, as much as I hate to say this, perhaps the Chinese govt should find a way to ban the imports of products into China and then pin the blame on the PM and the Coalition when they do it.

    It’s already started. Last week they banned taking any more of Australia’s Recycling. Unless it’s in perfect condition.

    The price for the recycled material has collapsed, apparently. I guess it’s what happens when the Neoliberals let the market rip without regulation and don’t mind hoeing into the earth’s natural resources for fun and profit instead. Built off the backs of slave wages for Workers.

    Can’t wait to see it overflowing the warehouses and piling up in the streets a la Italy. 🙂

  2. The dogs have been barking that Alexander was on the way out ever since he splashed a few million on a country retreat earlier in the year.

    He of course denied it then but the factions were said to be manoeuvring to get their man up. And it would be a man.

    If he has confirmed he is going it explains his total lack of enthusiasm for the campaign.

  3. Asha Leu
    Good point.Why should he stand at all if hes only got up to max of 18 months to go.No commitment to the electorate at all.

  4. adrian

    Perhaps the comedy channel has been set up for the very young who have never seen them before /sarc.

    I have been an ABC addict for many years, but when “Worst Cooks in America” promises more entertainment, we’re in a very bad place. 🙁

  5. There would be a lot of sympathy for Dastyari in the Labor Party because they know he was out there doing his bagman duties (which they don’t want to do), and I’m not being facetious

  6. anusha_srini: All that money poured into Border Force etc and the #Australian intelligence community couldn’t spot a double agent…..in the senate????
    #auspol twitter.com/abcnews/status…
    abcnews: “Sam Dastyari is a double agent and he can’t be in the Australian Senate,” Immigration Minister @PeterDutton_MP says Opposition Leader @billshortenmp needs to call on @samdastyari to go. pic.twitter.com/suCJm8IoKQ

  7. BREAKING: John Alexander has just announced he will not be standing for parliament again at the next election.

    If this isn’t code for ‘I want out and I want out now’ I don’t know what is. This is a man going through the motions, and not very happy about it.

  10. Wow, If Alexander has said publicly he will not stand at the next federal election that is downright idiotic by him five days away from voting.

    I hope the electorate give him a big eff off on Sat.

  13. The trick to keeping the whole Dastyardi thing going is to keep drip feeding morsels of information to the government stenographers, no matter how inconsequential that information may be.

    After the Bennelong by-election we may see it fade away.

    BTW again, don’t you love the way that the Q&A promo refers to Trumble and Joyce by their first names as though we’re just all good mates over at your ABC.

  14. C@t

    Haven’t seen one in my garden ever, only on the side of the road, rarely. So pleased.
    I’ve just decided not to do any mowing for a while. Don’t want to upset it!

  16. Alexander probably had no choice but to run again. The short time frame for the by-election meant there would have been a short and brutal fight to find a candidate.

    there was word after Alexanders property buy that former Eden Monaro man Peter Hendy fancied his chances if the seat was up for grabs but some locals were not that keen on him so Alexander had to go again.

    That is why Labor pulled a smart move in signing up Keneally. She was able to hit the ground running with an established profile and great media skills.

    Will be interesting if Feeney gets the flick from the HC. He is someone who would be best advised not to run again.

  21. The Australian seems to be printing a number of stories that embarrass Turnbull, while the Guardian is closing ranks behind ‘Dear Leader’. This is all very strange.

  22. To paraphrase my favourite PBer;
    Seriously, if the ALP can’t pin the rank stupidity of the LNP re MTM NBN on Trumble et al, they aren’t really trying.

    Tried to explain to a local businessperson that the rollout of the NBN and its design since 2013/14 has nothing whatever to do with Labor.

    Forget it. Labor made the thing called the NBN. Her NBN is shit. Labor is shit.
    It’s unfair to blame Malcolm.

  23. Does this suggest that internal polling has told Alexander the jig is up, or he really is that dumb, or both?

    Latest quote from John Alexander had him saying that there would be 50-100 votes max in it.

  25. Asher_Wolf: If you search the robodebt hashtag, the large majority of tweets are angry about inequality – not only personal, but the inequality of application of burden of responsibility unevenly shared between political classes

    Asher_Wolf: The Coalition has placed a burden of obligation upon the most vulnerable and the harm those policies cause have an alienating effect

    This is why citizenship is such a toxic issue for the LNP. Labor is at least seen to be trying to do something

  26. There has to be a more interesting, timely, and relevant simile for “daunting electoral challenge” than “like climbing Mt Everest”. How about “like restoring the Great Barrier Reef”?

  27. AB11:

    There would be a lot of sympathy for Dastyari in the Labor Party because they know he was out there doing his bagman duties (which they don’t want to do), and I’m not being facetious

    It almost sounds you think it’s a good thing for a political party to have “bagmen.”

  28. Mundo @2:18PM: Forget it. Labor made the thing called the NBN. Her NBN is shit. Labor is shit. It’s unfair to blame Malcolm.

    But Abbott and Turnbull told us back in 2013 at the joint Murdoch-N/NP launch of the Coalition’s NBN “plan” that they’d do it quicker, cheaper and just as good or better.
    EDIT: link – https://www.itnews.com.au/news/coalition-unveils-long-awaited-nbn-policy-339169

    Naturally, the “plan” has descended into chaos in the four years since the Coalition were running things. Turnbull owns the mess, not Labor, not Shorten, not Gillard or Conroy or Rudd.

  29. Great observations about Turnbull by Tony Walker in Crikey today:

    While criticism of Labor Senator Sam Dastyari over his unacceptable dealings with a Chinese billionaire donor is justified Turnbull is displaying characteristically poor political judgement by going further than he needs to.

    …This reveals a persistent Turnbull problem. Even when things are going his way, he stoops to conquer, and ends up surrendering political advantage.

  31. John ALexander is 66 years old. Although his party wants us all to work until 70, he probably has no particular enthusisam to do so, at least not in hos current job. He’s not exactly a rising star. Unlike most of us, he’ll have a generous pension regardless of what work, if any, he does in future, and without having to deal with Centrelink.

    It’s not surprising that he intended to retire at the next election. It is a bit surprising that he didn’t bow out now. His party must have persuaded him to stay so they could get the advantage of his incumbency at the next election.

  32. mundo:

    Actually, recent polling on the subject showed that the majority of voters did blame Turnbull for the trainwreck that is the NBN. I can’t remember the actual numbers, but I think it was something roughly along the lines of 60% blamed the Coalition, 20% blamed Telstra, 10% blamed Labor, or thereabouts.

    In general, once they’ve been in power for a little while, it tends to be pretty difficult for governments to shift the blame to previous administrations. Once your in charge, you wear the reaponsibility – rightly or wrongly. (In this case, rightly.)

  33. I know that Steve777 but none of it made any sense to her.
    As far as she’s concerned – and lord knows how many others – poor Malcolm got stuck with another Labor mess.

    My point is the ALP I think could have communicated the difference between the two designs more effectively and fought more passionately in opposition for their superior design.

  34. Talking about ‘bagmen’ …………. Sydney Water …… Free Enterprise Foundation …. any member of Turnbull’s government Cabinet come to mind?
    Dutton will be on to it no doubt …… the protector of all things double …….

  35. ‘it tends to be pretty difficult for governments to shift the blame to previous administrations…’

    Um, I’m pretty sure that only applies when Labor’s in office…..

  36. The contrast between Turnbull and Shorten is quite marked. Shorten is measured and always on message. Turnbull allows his belief in his own eloquence and general magnificence to emerge and inevitably ends up over egging the omlette whenever a contentious issue arises.

  37. Sam D is venal for getting a donor to pay for personal and office expenses. He is also undermining Australia’s interests by peddling China’s lawless, bad faith approach to international disputes. Our national interest in the South China Sea disputes is to promote processes that involve fair rules and good faith negotiations.

  38. If Alexander actually prefers an early retirement then KK, Labor and the electorate will probably grant him his wish.

  40. I find it a little odd that the MSM haven’t done any polls on Bennelong since very early on. Perhaps this is why the Libs are going the full on dog whistling ,anti Australian crap on Dastyari.

  41. We have to remember that ABC presenters are not trained journalists…

    Marilyn Shepherd‏ @MarilynShephe15 ·
    Hey stupid ABC, Frydenberg’s mother did not ”escape the holocaust to Australia”, she came as a 7 year old child 5 years after the fucking holocaust.

  42. “AGL says its plan to replace Liddell will deliver energy at a cost of $83 per megawatt hour, as opposed to a $106 per megawatt hour should Liddell remain open.

    Mr Frydenberg said it was important to understand that “not all electrons are created equal”.”

    (www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-dismayed-at-lidell-closure-despite-prime-ministerial-entreaties/news-story/751f98a853c088ccbd598bb943e382b0)

    As I understand it, all experimental evidence to date is that electrons are completely indistinguishable in all identifiable characteristics.

  43. New theory.

    Turnbull’s insulting of the Chinese and JA’s confirming he will only hold the job for about 8-9 months is part of a clever ploy to allow Turnbull to lose PMship via a general election, rather than being knifed.

    The plan is to lose Bennelong, piss off the x-bench and go to an early election.

    When you rule out the impossible, whatever remains must be the truth, no matter how implausible.

  44. Golly @2:43PM: “Talking about ‘bagmen’ …………. Sydney Water …… Free Enterprise Foundation …. any member of Turnbull’s government Cabinet come to mind?
    Dutton will be on to it no doubt …… the protector of all things double …….”

    Then there’s a whole gaggle of Coalition figures running interference for the Adani Group, an Indian multinational conglomerate which is a byword for dodgy dealings in India and South Africa. Whose intersts are these Parliamentarians serving? And what about buggering up the NBN, allegedly to serve the commercial interests of a well known foreign businessman and multinational group. While unfounded allegations about serving foreign interests are being scattered around like confetti against one side of polictics by the Government and media, how about some equal opportunity smearing?

  45. mundo says:
    Monday, December 11, 2017 at 2:41 pm
    I know that Steve777 but none of it made any sense to her.
    As far as she’s concerned – and lord knows how many others – poor Malcolm got stuck with another Labor mess.

    My point is the ALP I think could have communicated the difference between the two designs more effectively and fought more passionately in opposition for their superior design.

    I think that says more about her than the communication. Does she also complain about electricity prices because of the ETS the L-NP have since removed? 🙂

    I am also partisan, but I can distinguish between different governments and different government policies. It sounds like she is being wilfully ignorant.

  46. BREAKING: John Alexander has just announced he will not be standing for parliament again at the next election.

    Is this true? Very odd timing.

  47. lizzie

    BREAKING: John Alexander has just announced he will not be standing for parliament again at the next election. Why would #Bennelong voters vote for him now? Surely they’d want competent long-term representation? #auspol

    .

    Very strange that he’d announce this now.

  48. Hello, new chums mundo and Golly! Welcome to the Bludger Lounge. 🙂

    Roxanna, welcome back!

    Now, I don’t know if this will help you, but if you want to quote a block of text, put

    For italics it is the same with an i inside the

    If you want to link to an article, go to the page it’s on and highlight it in the address bar, then press Copy after you right click on it with your mouse. Then right click again in this box and press Paste. That should bring it up as a link.

    Hope that helps! 🙂

  49. the Libs are going the full on dog whistling ,anti Australian crap on Dastyari.

    Well, energy policy, climate policy and the NBN are in chaos, they’re attacking the vulnerable, wages are stagnent, debt and deficit are out of control four years after they said they’d fix it, economic growth is anaemic, housing in our big cities unafordable, jobs still hard to get and millions are crushed by housing and education debt. And their policies are crap, those they’ve told us about. Then there are the policies we’ll find out about after the next election, if they’re allowed back in.

    So, apart from the dog whistle, what have they got?

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