The first Newspoll in three weeks is a better one for the government, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 55-45 to 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down two to 8%. The better result for the Coalition flows through to Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, with approval up three to 32% and disapproval down one to 57%, and his preferred prime minister lead out from 36-34 to 39-33. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 54%.
We also have the first Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers in three months, and it also has Labor leading 53-47, which is unchanged on the previous poll (this is with preferences allocated as per the last election – Ipsos produces a separate result on respondent-allocated preferences, but it’s not available yet). Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 34% and Labor to 33%. Ipsos continues to record unusually strong support for the Greens, although they are down a point to 13%, and has One Nation on 7%, which I believe is the first result they have published for them. In keeping with Ipsos’s past form, leadership ratings are unusually favourable, and low on uncommitted responses: Malcolm Turnbull scores 42% approval and 49% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 38% and 42%. Also unusual is the size of Turnbull’s 48-31 lead as preferred prime minister.
The poll finds Julie Bishop (32%) edging past Malcolm Turnbull (29%) as preferred Liberal leader, with Tony Abbott on 14%, Peter Dutton on 5% and Scott Morrison on 4%. A further question suggests opposition to the notion of dumping Turnbull, but there are problems with it: it does not relate to Turnbull specifically, but to whether governing parties should or should not changes leaders mid-term. As stated, it appears those favouring an affirmative position are required to suggest that leadership changes should happen in all circumstances. So I’m not sure how much to make of the fact that only 25% signed on to this, with 71% opposed. The poll also finds 49% supporting a change to Section 44 with 47% opposed, corroborating last week’s finding by YouGov, and has 71% in support of a royal commission into banks, with just 19% opposed.
J,
That agenda shows agin that Fairfax are the preferred home for leaks from this Government.
They’ve obviously kyboshed News.
Could explain why News outlets are going hard on leaks against Bishop and are providing counter stories to the Dastyari stuff.
I’ve also noticed the News journos are sledging each other atm. Could be trouble in the Murdoch Kingdom.
proving that a planet where hairy apes take power is not just the storyline of a 60s film starring Charlton Heston.
GG,
Yeah, the PMO have obviously worked out that the Murdochracy want the Libs without Trumble. Fairfax ‘journos’ are proven drip feeders.
ratsak
Turnbull got his letter from the banks in return for the RC terms of reference including Industry Superannuation Funds.
News and 2GB hate Turnbull and nothing is more important than destroying him. Pretty much a repeat of the Gillard years.
It’s pretty sad that politics has become destroying the person but that’s how it has become since 2010.
What’s Abbott going down in history for?
Knighting Prince Phillip?
@steve777 – no, the onion!
There were so many highlights of the Abbott years.
Very interesting reading the posts about Fairfax and Newscorp.
Perhaps labor will be using Newscorp as its ” point of delivery ” for the information they have re the coalition and its connections to certain Chinese businessmen.
It will be ironic if there is a bit of ” the enemy of my enemy is my friend “unfolding in the media war between Fairfax and Newscorp.
We shall see.
Cheers.
Shortest term as Prime Minister since Billy McMahon?
caf @ #496 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 2:59 pm
Being the subject of Gillard’s “misogyny” speech. See? Even a complete arsehat can do something memorable!
Who cares as long as he goes down!
Player One: But he wasn’t Prime Minister then…
I find it hard to believe that Prince Philip, The Onion, Shirtfronting, or any of the rest from his regrettable tenure are going to end up more than the proverbial footnote in the history books. Perhaps he’s the legendary “exception that proves the rule”?
I still do not think Turnbull will emerge from this week as the hero of marriage equality especially as the debate gets serious around amendments.
Labor and advocates can ram home that Turnbull and his conservative supporters should just get out of the way and let the Smith legislation pass.
Labor members on the no side have already made clear that they will not support amendments and want the legislation ” as presented “to be voted on this week.
If labor plays the right game and the coalition conservatives remain true to form then Turnbull may not be as cocky on Thursday.
Cheers.
Fourfer.
very poor decision from Pete Nev to send the Taswegians in at Bellerive.
#sportonPB
Anthony Abbott was the greatest Opposition Leader ever (2009 – present). His skills were first noticed when he opposed Turnbull’s Liberals in Opposition, and he rose to officially become Opposition Leader. Subsequently he opposed the Rudd, Gillard, Rudd, Abbott, and Turnbull governments.
Ratsak: “getting troops out of Vietnam. It was essentially done by the Libs.”
This is news to me.
I was one of the winners of the lucky nasho’s raffle in 1969, and applied for a deferment while I completed my degree.
Each year until 1972 I had to submit my results to the Department to prove I had completed the last year successfully and was accepted for re-enrollment the next.
In 1972 I fully expected to be in Vietnam in 1973, and was spared that misery by Labor’s success in the December (?) 1972 election.
Fulvio,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_Australia_during_the_Vietnam_War#Withdrawal_of_Australian_forces.2C_1970.E2.80.9373
Without even having the sound on I can tell Mal’s smugometer is almost going off the scale.
Virtual guarantee of disaster to follow for Trumble.
_____________
Just like this –
Overconfidence
Followed by
So it looks like nothing too shocking in the senate disclosure forms?
One additional Labor Senator in the ‘submitted but did not hear back before close of rolls, but if the foreign government had responded as quickly as they had done to John Alexander then would have been set’ category.
Probably not too surprising. Considering how over represented the Senate was in dual citizens, the going theory was that those in the HoR would have more incentive not to speak up.
Commercial radio news at the time said the banks’ letter was coordinated by Mike Baird (these days a senior NAB executive). Quite easy to see that the whole thing between the LNP and the banks is a stitch up.
I think Abbott’s greatest legacy will be all the great things he did for women whilst he was the self appointed minister for them.
Youse know, like axing the carbon tax so it was cheaper ironing….
Ides of March:
Both good suggestions.
I do wonder whether being speaker might interfere with an independent’s ability to properly represent their electorate, but I’m sure there are ways to make it work.
Abbott will go down in history as John Hewsons press secretary.
Fulvio, you could still have been conscripted – Gough ended National Service as soon as he was elected – but you wouldn’t have been sent to Vietnam.
mimhoff:
His brutal take-down of the Abbott government was particularly well done. He deserves all the glory there.
Ratsak, reading that article, you are right, although it doesn’t accord to my understanding and my subjective recollections of the time. Obviously, I was unaware or sceptical of the de-escalation of Australia’s involvement through that period.
I still recall taking part in anti war moratorium marches in 1970 -71.
Asha
In Ireland the speaker does not have to go to the next election.
However the irish lower house is similar to Hare-clark for MMP so people in that seat still vote.
Id prefer a speaker that wasnt actually a member of parliament per se but say a retired judge or such (ie non partisan appointment). I dont know how youd get around tie votes and other issues.
@ Ides – no need for a tie breaker. Simply make it so that all ties fail to pass, i.e. votes need > 50%
From the Guardian live blog – taken from twitter – the battle of the photos of pollies with Huang. Libs used a photo of Huang with Turnbull & Shorten and cropped out Turnbull. Labor showed the whole photo.
Autocrat
Gough sure did end conscription.
My wife’s brother was at Pucka in Dec 72 and he said a lot of his fellow Nashos just took off on the Sunday, particularly those from NSW and Victoria who had cars.
He went to work on the Monday to be asked by his NCO why he hadnt effed off like his mates.
From memory he was back in WA within a week.
I was in the very last ballot held, August or thereabouts 1972 but my number did not come up.
Ides of March says:
Monday, December 4, 2017 at 3:55 pm
Asha
Id prefer a speaker that wasnt actually a member of parliament per se but say a retired judge or such (ie non partisan appointment). I dont know how youd get around tie votes and other issues.
The Speaker is an officer of the Parliament drawn from among those elected to the Parliament. Their tenure is the same as other MPs and they owe their office to those other MPs, who can dismiss them if they choose. This is a founding concept in Parliamentary sovereignty. It would really profoundly change the Parliament were its presiding officers not also members. They would owe their nominations and appointment to their positions to some other arm – presumably to the Crown – and that would ultimately end in disaster.
citizen @ #534 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 11:59 am
Truth overboard returns!!
@ briefly – “They would owe their nominations and appointment to their positions to some other arm” is only true if they wanted it to be true.
A speaker that isn’t an MP could be appointed by any agreeable means, including 50%+1 vote on the floor of the HoR, 2/3rds+1 vote on the floor of the HoR, consensus on the floor of the HoR.
Fivefer
Still an interesting count in Qld.
Townsville still a chance for ALP.
I think tomorrow is supposed to be end of counting as all eligible votes will be in & counted – is that correct?
Hence why I used it as an example of the sort of thing that will probably happen to Trumble over SSM. It might have happened on his watch, but he won’t get the credit.
Meet the Elon Musk of Assisted Suicide, Whose Machine Lets You Kill Yourself Anywhere
Dr. Philip Nitschke considers himself the Elon Musk of assisted suicide—and his latest death machine, the Sarco, is his Tesla.
http://www.newsweek.com/elon-musk-assisted-suicide-machine-727874
Impartial speaker? From outside the house?
Section 35 of the consititution says:
The House of Representatives shall, before proceeding to the despatch of any other business, choose a member to be the Speaker of the House, and as often as the office of Speaker becomes vacant the House shall again choose a member to be the Speaker.
The Speaker shall cease to hold his office if he ceases to be a member. He may be removed from office by a vote of the House, or he may resign his office or his seat by writing addressed to the Governor-General.
Good luck with that idea then
Ides of March:
I wouldn’t be opposed to either of those.
I don’t know… I think that in theory you are correct, but in practice the speakership has become such a partisan position as to render it almost pointless, at least federally.
I personally can’t see that many risks to making it an appointed position – if there are concerns about extra oversight, simply make it so that appointments must be confirmed by parliament and can also have their position rescinded by parliament. Additionally, the nature of the speaker’s position and inability to cast anything but tie-breaker votes also interferes with their ability to actually be an effective representative for their electorate, which I daresay is partly why the position tends to be given to party stalwarts in very safe seats.
I should have specified that my idea requires a referendum.
Im just not a fan of the current approach that leaves it open for a speaker to be partisan. Smith is no Bishop but he is no Burke or Jenkins (jr and sr).
Maybe 2/3rd majority vote of MPs?
Rossmcg:
Obviously, the constitution would need to be changed for something like that to go ahead, but that’s not exactly impossible.
Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, December 4, 2017 at 4:07 pm
A speaker that isn’t an MP could be appointed by any agreeable means, including 50%+1 vote on the floor of the HoR, 2/3rds+1 vote on the floor of the HoR, consensus on the floor of the HoR.
Nah. Among their many functions and duties, the presiding officers are the voices of the Legislature in its transactions with the Crown and as between each chamber. It is absolutely essential that they be members of Parliament.
citizen @ #531 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 2:29 pm
Did the Lib’s propaganda unit really think nobody would notice?
That is a whole new level of incompetence and desperation.
Please note re Senator Pratt. She lost her seat in the senate and was elected to the senate again at the double dissolution election. At which time she had not been a British citizen for 6 years or more.
So it is rather like Barnaby’s position now as he is re-elected without New Zealand Citizenship.
Except Pratt wasn’t a British citizen when elected the first time.
If they want to go back historically , they would have to look into every retired politician.
Asha
you reckon there are MPs out there who would vote for holding a constitutional referendum to rob one of their number of a plumb job in the interests of providing impartiality in the reps?
Nope.
And remember there are the deputy speakers …
The complaints department hasn’t received any dead callers.
Malcolm really is Wile E Coyote
CTaR1
Docco on Falklands on Sky at 4.32 if you are about and can access it.