Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Julie Bishop edges Malcolm Turnbull as preferred Liberal leader, amid a static picture on voting intention.

The first Newspoll in three weeks is a better one for the government, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 55-45 to 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down two to 8%. The better result for the Coalition flows through to Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, with approval up three to 32% and disapproval down one to 57%, and his preferred prime minister lead out from 36-34 to 39-33. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 54%.

We also have the first Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers in three months, and it also has Labor leading 53-47, which is unchanged on the previous poll (this is with preferences allocated as per the last election – Ipsos produces a separate result on respondent-allocated preferences, but it’s not available yet). Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 34% and Labor to 33%. Ipsos continues to record unusually strong support for the Greens, although they are down a point to 13%, and has One Nation on 7%, which I believe is the first result they have published for them. In keeping with Ipsos’s past form, leadership ratings are unusually favourable, and low on uncommitted responses: Malcolm Turnbull scores 42% approval and 49% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 38% and 42%. Also unusual is the size of Turnbull’s 48-31 lead as preferred prime minister.

The poll finds Julie Bishop (32%) edging past Malcolm Turnbull (29%) as preferred Liberal leader, with Tony Abbott on 14%, Peter Dutton on 5% and Scott Morrison on 4%. A further question suggests opposition to the notion of dumping Turnbull, but there are problems with it: it does not relate to Turnbull specifically, but to whether governing parties should or should not changes leaders mid-term. As stated, it appears those favouring an affirmative position are required to suggest that leadership changes should happen in all circumstances. So I’m not sure how much to make of the fact that only 25% signed on to this, with 71% opposed. The poll also finds 49% supporting a change to Section 44 with 47% opposed, corroborating last week’s finding by YouGov, and has 71% in support of a royal commission into banks, with just 19% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

724 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 5:53 pm
    The Coalition game plan is now clear, IMO.

    Run up the debt. Destroy the tax base. Force the GST up to 20%.

    With the eager help of the Greens Party, of course.

    BW you need a cup of tea, a Bex, and a good lie down.

  2. Ah, so Newspoll was out in the field. The recent choreographed unearthing of months-old “secret audio” of Dastyari suddenly makes perfect sense.

  3. Don
    Every single Greens Party supporter is happy to see that the PHON damaged the LNP in the most recent Queensland election.
    Yet exactly the Greens Party has exactly the same structural impacts on Labor and the Greens Party supporters deny this totally.
    Please explain this remarkable example of cognitive dissonance.

  4. Roger bottomley, from the last thread:

    He will be very effective. Like Howard was. He will run a good cabinet. But he will be incrementally progressive. I suspect he will be as revered, in time, as Hawke.

    I agree.

    Mind you, I once thought the same thing about Rudd!

    But I am quietly confident that the same traits that have meant Shorten often hasn’t been the most inspiring of opposition of leaders will also make him a competent and successful Prime Minister. He strikes as being the anti-Rudd in many ways.

    The Howard comparison is apt. Howard was never a very popular opposition leader, and was often regarded as joke. As Prime Minister, however, he was ruthlessly effective. Those of us on the left may despise him, but I don’t anyone can deny that his time in office was a – politically speaking – an enormous success.

  5. Asha
    Who was the last PM who turned out to be better than we thought he/she would be? Same for POTUS. Not many have overperformed.

  6. Oh, I am going to regret engaging with Boerwar on this, but anyhoo:

    PHON was far less friendly to the LNP with their preferences, including deliberately preferencing against LNP incumbants.

    That said, they were hardly a boon for the Labor party either. If anything, one thing that aided Palazcszuk’s victory, IMO, was that the One Nation performed worse than expected. Had their vote been higher, their preferences may have delivered the LNP more seats over Labor candidates – or they may have won more seats from Labor and denied them a majority.

  7. To start a new topic. I am enjoying reading the latest book by George Monbiot – “Out of the Wreckage. A new politics for an age of crisis”.
    I will drop one quote: relevance is for you to debate.

    When I make the mistake of reading the online comments below my articles — or anyone else’s — the image that strikes me is of people trapped, alone in their cars, in a traffic jam, unable to see past the vehicle in front of them. Their anger and aggression is focused on the drivers ahead, and they lean on the horn, blaring pointlessly at them. Their isolation and frustration blind them to the context: the reasons for the jam, the reasons for their anger, the wider problems the snarl-up might reveal. Alienation, separation and stress suppress empathy, understanding, curiosity and cooperation. Deep thought becomes impossible. Rather than deliberating together to solve our common problems, we shout and shake our fists at each other.

  8. Diog, what will help Shorten is that he isn’t being proclaimed as a messiah. There’s much scope for uplift compared to say, an Obama or Rudd.

  9. I read in the AFR that the government are trying to get Barnaby Joyce back into parliament by Tuesday or Wednesday, as soon as the returning officer declares who won.

    Can they do that?

  10. VP
    I’m pretty sure the Left will still have high hopes for his government even if Shorten isn’t messiah-like. Almost all leaders have underperformed expectations in the last 20 years (US, Aust, UK) presumably because either (1) the job is harder than it used to be, (2) they are doing much the same as previously but there is more criticism, (3) we are getting worse politicians.

  11. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 8:25 pm


    Don
    Every single Greens Party supporter is happy to see that the PHON damaged the LNP in the most recent Queensland election.
    Yet exactly the Greens Party has exactly the same structural impacts on Labor and the Greens Party supporters deny this totally.
    Please explain this remarkable example of cognitive dissonance.

    So why did Labor preference the Greens as #1 (for other parties) in the HTV ticket in the recent election in New England? Is this not relevant to your statement?

  12. Dan Gulberry says:
    Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 8:58 pm
    Can’t remember if this has been posted or not:

    The other thing that struck me is that all the people at the table appear to be of the male persuasion.

  13. Fess and Dan:

    And all white.

    Indeed, but that, like being male, is a given in the GOP higher levels, I would imagine.

    A bit like the LNP in Oz.

  14. On another note, every time I read it, I’m struck by how PHON is probably one of the most unfortunate acronyms a political party has ever had. Honestly, if it wasn’t for the fact that Hanson and others in the party regularly use it, I would have been certain it was something their detractors had come up with to mock them.

  15. There’s always going to be some people disappointed with Shorten if he becomes PM – especially if he doesn’t do a good job, obvously, but even if he does – but I think he has a big advantage over the likes of Obama or Rudd or Turnbull in that there really arn’t any expectations on him at all, at least among the broader electorate.

  16. Hi GG, weren’t you banned by William ? Keeping up with you is like one of those soap opera characters, shot, kidnapped , married, divorced, married , alcohol problems etc etc

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