The first Newspoll in three weeks is a better one for the government, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 55-45 to 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down two to 8%. The better result for the Coalition flows through to Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, with approval up three to 32% and disapproval down one to 57%, and his preferred prime minister lead out from 36-34 to 39-33. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 54%.
We also have the first Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers in three months, and it also has Labor leading 53-47, which is unchanged on the previous poll (this is with preferences allocated as per the last election – Ipsos produces a separate result on respondent-allocated preferences, but it’s not available yet). Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 34% and Labor to 33%. Ipsos continues to record unusually strong support for the Greens, although they are down a point to 13%, and has One Nation on 7%, which I believe is the first result they have published for them. In keeping with Ipsos’s past form, leadership ratings are unusually favourable, and low on uncommitted responses: Malcolm Turnbull scores 42% approval and 49% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 38% and 42%. Also unusual is the size of Turnbull’s 48-31 lead as preferred prime minister.
The poll finds Julie Bishop (32%) edging past Malcolm Turnbull (29%) as preferred Liberal leader, with Tony Abbott on 14%, Peter Dutton on 5% and Scott Morrison on 4%. A further question suggests opposition to the notion of dumping Turnbull, but there are problems with it: it does not relate to Turnbull specifically, but to whether governing parties should or should not changes leaders mid-term. As stated, it appears those favouring an affirmative position are required to suggest that leadership changes should happen in all circumstances. So I’m not sure how much to make of the fact that only 25% signed on to this, with 71% opposed. The poll also finds 49% supporting a change to Section 44 with 47% opposed, corroborating last week’s finding by YouGov, and has 71% in support of a royal commission into banks, with just 19% opposed.
Unjustified as it may be, I imagine Turnbull will get a fair bit of the credit once the marriage bill passes, and some badly needed positive buzz as a result. No, it’s not really fair – he barely did anything – but sometimes that’s just the way things go in politics. The unengaged will just see this as being passed by the Turnbull government, and it will be historically remembered as something achieved during Turnbull’s Prime Ministership – and given how little he has actually achieved in office, it will probably stand out more even more starkly as a result.
My immediate thought was that Lleyonhelm (sp?) and Hanson should be charged with contempt of the Senate – Paula Matthewson agrees (never thought we’d agree on much).
p1
So Rex can drivel on about someone else.
(The boredom is getting to me.)
jenauthor:
Haven’t seen Hanson’s statements yet, but that was more or less my thought when I read those snippets from Lleyonjhelm’s declaration. He’s not nearly as funny as he thinks he is.
Hes not going to be replaced as long as he is ahead.Never in a million years could Labor be that stupid.They would be a total laughing stock.Period.
Jenauthor
Why on Hanson?
Contempt would go to appeal. Plus the 6 month sentence would not see either senator booted.
It wouldn’t matter if St Gough himself was leading the NSW ALP. We’re still paying (quite rightly) for the last government, and the Libs in NSW aren’t dominated by lunatics. Added to that the rivers of stamp duty gold they have to spend and even a Campbell would struggle to lose at the moment.
Sure the Libs are Libs and so they are shovelling money to their mates and there’ll be a mess to clean up. But compared to the last term of the Iemma, Rees, KK clusterfuck this is a solid competent administration (even having lost two Premiers).
Foley has done little wrong. He got the dishlickers issue right even when the geniuses here that are calling for his head were saying he got it dead wrong. He is right on stadia and does media in front of demountable school rooms etc to make the point. But because the Coalition aren’t in much polling bother he gets bare minimum coverage.
The NSW government’s danger is outside of Sydney with the Nats facing a challenge from the Shooters, but unless the Real Estate market collapse there is bugger all any Labor leader could do in Sydney at the moment.
Senator Hanson has listed Stonehenge UK has place of birth for grandparents (it doesnt exist as a place).
Plus failed to provider evidence of renounciation attempts etc.
Smugness really does not become Turnbull. Boasting about how well you did in a super-safe electorate is about as far from Prime Ministerial as you can get.
turnbull is shouty
The sum of Banardi’s efforts to rescind Italian citizenship appears to be … inquired with Italian consul & been told not eligible due to sole Australian citizenship of father…
Total rubbish, what Italian born would rescind their Italian Citizenship in the days Cory was born.
Where’s his proof that his father reminded his Italian citizenship, Cory didn’t indicate that he’d asked the Italian consul any relevant questions
Pick your bags Cory.
Asha Leu No, it’s not really fair – he barely did anything
He did nothing except enable continued obstruction and delay.
Ides of March:
Maybe they were born at the actual rocks!
Asha.
To make the obvious joke, rocks in her head
Two questions in, and I think I’m done with Question Time for the day. There’s no way I can take an entire hour of listening to Turnbull destroy his vocal chords as he attempts to pretend he is really, truly is actually enjoying himself rather than utterly terrified about his future.
Smugness really does not becomeTrumble. Boasting about how well you did in a super-safe electorateis about as far from Prime Ministerial as you can get.Those Greens Party Senators!
One had Commies for parents.
And now one of them is claiming to have Druids for parents!
IoM
Pawleen’s got a letter from the UK Immigration Service. That she’s ignorant of a grandparents actual place of birth in the UK doesn’t matter much.
Asha Leu @ #108 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 2:12 pm
The Turnbull Govt should be condemned for the only initiative they took re SSM, the wasting of $122M on an unnecessary survey.
The legislation going through parliament is a private members bill, NOT a Govt bill.
Turnbull is perpetuating a falsehood.
Watching QT, it appears we have a Huang parliament.
Rex Douglas:
Oh, I agree. I’m talking about perceptions here, not reality.
Poms in disarray 3/50.
Asha Leu @ #451 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 2:12 pm
Indeed. It will probably be the only thing that is ever remembered from his PMship, much the same way Rudd’s apology to the stolen generation is the only thing remembered from his. Testament to the fact that even the most bumbling and incompetent PMs can still go down in history for something.
GG
Root rooted.
‘Malan’ is a South African name. How did he sneak in?
One of his parents must have been an Australian Parliamentarian!
sprocket_ @ #471 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 2:27 pm
He he!
Speaking of Huang and Xiangmo,
It may please some to know The Greens are peppering Brandis with questions over their donations to tje Liberal party.
Point of order. I didn’t ever say I thought Foley should go. P1 might have.
I said he needs a marketing manager. He’s not naturally gifted. If he’s holding press conferences I’m not hearing about them; MSM is what it is.
I dunno. Hold a presser at the Homebush stadium with a mockup of the Flame, wear Cathy’s zoot suit, create a hullabullo about our heritage, and you’ll be all over the news in an hour. Smarten up and cut with the dirge. Has he got a marketing man. How’s it work?
ItzaDream @ #479 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 2:39 pm
P1 did. Foley is lazy. I understand that he has inherited a virtually unelectable party in NSW, but they won’t win government back by being invisible. Put someone in who is willing to do the hard yards.
I don’t think Trumble will get any credit for this. Especially if he’s up with amendments. In the end he’s been a passenger on SSM. Done absolutely jack to progress the issue. Every single move has been to save his own miserable skin.
Remember the only reason we got the plebifarce was because enough ‘moderates’ (sic) were simply not going to wait any longer once the original plebiscite legislation was knocked over in the Senate. It was nothing but a way to try and kick the can a bit further down the road and prevent having half a dozen or so of his own in each house joining with everyone else to get it done months ago and leave him obviously exposed as the nothing he is.
His media fluffers might try and make him the hero of the story, but no one buys much of the attempts of the media to pump up Trumble’s tyres anymore. It’ll probably be a bit like getting the troops out of Vietnam. It was essentially done by the Libs, but no one much gave them credit.
Interesting. Scott Morrison tells parliament that at 9am on the day the decision to have a royal commission was announced.
Phillip Coorey tweeted at 8.30am the RC was on.
Switched on Question Time again, because there is something very wrong with me.
As normal, I find myself thinking that surely QT is due for some serious changes to make it more bearable to watch and to actually achieve something beyond wasting oxygen and an hour of time that parliamentarians could actually be spending doing their jobs.
To start with, I’d suggest:
Limiting all the utterly pointless dixers, by changing the ratio of questions asked from half on both sides to something close to 70% opposition/crossbenchers and 30% government. It’s Question Time, not Talk About How Awesome You Are Time.
Having a much stricter time limit on questions, so Ministers arn’t just babbling on about nothing and endlessly repeating the words “Mr. Speaker” just to fill time.
And, probably most importantly, giving the Speaker much more power to force Ministers to actually answer questions properly rather than just dodging it by babbling on about nothing and talking about all the bad things the opposition have done instead.
This last one, of course, is incredibly subjective, and for it to have any effect there would need to be a Speaker in place prepared to fully enforce such powers, but it would be something. At the moment, it seems pretty rare – especially with the current mob in charge – for answers to opposition question to have even a tangential relationship to what was being asked, and even rarer for the Speaker to actually enforce points of order about answering the question properly.
Pyne really is a fuckwit.
guytaur @ #364 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 11:36 am
They’re all the same to me; nobody gets extra points for having a more “pure” motivation for their ‘No’. We just had weeks of debate and still not one rational argument against marriage equality was articulated by its opponents. There is no reason to oppose equal marriage under the law of a secular state, and nothing for any No voter in Parliament to speak towards. They’ve already had their chance to convince the world that their side has merit, and they failed.
They should just admit they’re an asshole who feels vaguely uncomfortable around gay couples and then stfu. Labor No voters are no better and entitled to no more consideration than any other persuasion of No voter.
Asha.
Government should not be allowed to ask themselves in QT. All opposition/cross bench
Truely independent speaker. (Resign from party etc – as in England).
ratsak:
I hope you’re right, but I’m not quite as optimistic as you.
That said, most people I have spoken to about it – even the very politically unengaged – do see the plebiscite as a pretty astonishing waste of money, so that likely will tarnish Turnbull’s “victory” here somewhat.
#fromthenoshitsherlockfiles
Only a cretin would think the RC wasn’t planned well in advance, and that it wasn’t negotiated with the banks.
– Letter from the big four is announced first thing in the morning
– Coorey tweet at 8:30
– PM and Tresh announce at 9
– Royal Commissioner in place 24 hours later
Lizzie – this Dastyari bashing must be killing Alexander in Bennelong.
The Speakership is just another one of the spoils of winning an election.
@ ab – this Dastyari bashing is for the Bennelong by election.
At a guess, the Libs think they will gain more racist votes than they will lose Chinese votes.
The story is that Trumble told the banks to send him the letter as a fig leaf.
Without even having the sound on I can tell Mal’s smugometer is almost going off the scale.
Player One:
What’s Abbott going down in history for?
caf @ #153 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 2:59 pm
…being escorted into the Lodge by Rudd.
Virtual guarantee of disaster to follow for Trumble.
Sport comment alert.
The way the second test is panning out in Adelaide the Boxing Day test is looking like a dead rubber.
Oh dear.
Abbott will go down in history for being history in his first term.