BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

There were three new polls this week, from Essential Research, YouGov and ReachTEL, but I’m lacking a complete set of results for the latter, and am thus able to include only the first two in the weekly update of BludgerTrack. This is a bit unfortunate, as ReachTEL would have leavened the effects of two bad results for the Coalition. As a result, BludgerTrack records a lurch to Labor this week that may not be replicated next week, unless Newspoll is also bad for the Coalition (which, of course, it may very well be). Labor’s three gains on the seat projection consist of one each from Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Nothing new on leadership ratings. As always, see the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 23
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  1. With Flynn, the charges actually stem from his role on the White House transition team, and they involve a man who was clearly close to Trump — a man to whom the notoriously fickle Trump has for some reason remained loyal even long after Flynn’s usefulness to him expired. While Manafort was a significant cog in the Trump machine’s effort to obtain the White House, Flynn was a confidant and someone Trump seemed to trust implicitly.

    Assuming Mueller is also using these charges to leverage Flynn — and there are always negotiations around guilty pleas like this (in this case it is believed Flynn has negotiated to avoid having his son, Michael Flynn Jr., charged) — he’s just gotten much, much closer to the president himself.

    The question is what else Flynn has offered apart from his guilty plea.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/12/01/robert-mueller-just-penetrated-the-white-house-gates-with-michael-flynns-guilty-plea/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_fix-flynnanalysis-1159am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.6e230ba35181

    We should start a PB book on who’s next. My guess: Jared.

  2. What I like about Bilbo’s site is that – conditionally – one can say what one likes, and moreover the gremlins appear to have been settled.

    I used to work in a very prim and proper profession, having retired from it some nine years ago. Other sites, such as the Guardian, Fairfax, are reasonable but they, particularly Fairfax, have these monsters called moderators, where one’s moderated if one uses, for example, the “F” word or stalks another poster (which I do with reactionaries such as Hacka, nuffity, Housemartian (sic), TimofAltona). It’s accordingly liberating to return to this site, though accepting others would take the contrary view.

    Although suffering indifferent health, I’m going to be posting herein regularly, unless of course I kick the bucket or get fucking banned – I can’t believe I just said that. William, please delete this post.

  4. I read excerpts of Paul Kelly’s column at loon-pond.
    It could be summarized as a warning to Turnbull, make sure the Brandis amendments are included in the SSM bill when debated in the lower house, or face a backlash from the right.

    He also sees broad, sunlit uplands.(my interpretation) as Turnbull has neutralized the issue of a bank RC, sorts SSM, resolved energy and once past Bennelong can look forward to an economy “generating jobs” in 2018.

    This is assuming he gives the right everything they want.

    Dorothy Parker referred to his column as ‘the Catholic boys daily’.

  5. Armidale is probably more cosmopolitan than the rest of New England. It has the main campus of the University of New England, with a significant population of students and acedemics. It would also have more tourism. Tamworth, although much bigger, would be very much National territory.

  6. Pauline not declaring gifts again , this time for the reef’s not dead stunt last year :

    The cruise was a gift from Freedom Fast Cats, a Yeppoon-based charter company.

    Senator Hanson initially said there was no need to declare the cruise, contending it came in under the Senate’s disclosure threshold of $300 and saying she would “make no apologies” for not listing it on her interests register.

    But the One Nation leader did an abrupt about-face after Fairfax Media asked for a quote from Freedom Fast Cats for a similar private cruise package – and were told it would cost $4500. Even if responsibility for the trip was divided among the three offices, the value of the cruise would still be well over the disclosure threshold.

    She was also advocating for a casino to be built on Great Keppel during the State election.
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/pauline-hanson-fails-to-declare-4500-great-barrier-reef-snorkelling-cruise-20171129-gzv0u2.html

  7. JR

    Kelly shows he is delusional. Turnbull’s only scent of a claim to victory is ME. That and the right don’t have the numbers for amendments. Senate colleagues wont thank for no Christmas holiday either.

  8. poroti,
    Are there some juicy port and rail infrastructure attached ? The Chinese seem very keen on such facilities. They may be prepared to take a loss on the coal to get them.

    Abbot Point and a rail line to the Back of Beyond in Queensland.

    I’m wondering if they have their eyes on the Port of Melbourne (if it hasn’t been sold yet).

  13. Steven @ #182 Saturday, December 2nd, 2017 – 11:53 am

    The poor old BoM is under attack again from some Victorians who believe the warnings etc where ‘over the top’ given the amount of rain that did actually fall in parts of Victoria according to an article on the ABC.

    I beg to differ. Better to be informed than ill-informed. Those in the King Valley, Yea, Myrtleford, Wangaratta, Benalla and elsewhere are watching river and creek levels rising not to mention brown rot.

    From my observations, the bulk of the rain passed to the east and west of Melbourne with relatively little falling in Melbourne. Call it luck or whatever, but not any fault of the BOM.
    In any event, the news this morning was that the worst is yet to come.

  15. Whoever posted that BBC article about the Russian numbers station thank you. Interesting ideas and TIL we had an Australian numbers station called ‘Cherry Ripe’ operating out of the NT (sister station of the Lincolnshire Poacher in Cyprus)

  18. Cud Chewer,
    I was thinking more strategically. If the Chinese built more lines off the main line they would be able to penetrate Queensland very effectively.

  21. David Marler‏
    @Qldaah

    Of the four undecided seats, Mr Green expects the LNP to take Burdekin and Townsville, the Greens to take Maiwar, and while it was difficult to call, Katter’s Australian Party to take Hinchinbrook. #qldvotes

  26. @ C@tmomma:

    What a wonderful pic, and, without a hint of sexism, KK is one classy woman, the send a message message on all four, JA being an old has-been. Oh, shit, where does that leave me(?).

  28. Ides of March

    The transmitters,still there, still working. Publicly it was for Australian armed forces in the Asia region. Whether it does more is a ?

  30. Cud Chewer,
    A vast State, ripe for exploitation, who wouldn’t want to have a way in and easy access!?!

    Of course I’m merely speculating here. Just trying to manifest a Chinese mindset.

  32. @ Ides:

    [‘I’ve met the guy in the blue shirt on the left in that photo you’ve posted.’]

    I’ve met the Queen, but is there any more to come?

  33. P

    Well thats strange. It was originally traced to Guam for years but then moved to Humpty Doo in September 2009 and is said to have gone offline in December 2009.

    It is speculated to be British Intilligence because its pattern and voice are similar to one that was though to operate from an RAF base in Cyprus (Linclonshire Poacher).

  34. IoM,
    Nurses would be a subsequent cab off the rank of Penalty Rates cuts to enrich Coalition mates in Health Care if the Tories could get away with it. They have a lot to lose.

  35. I’ve met Kristina Kenneally, long before she was chosen to run for Bennelong. I think she even knows my name! The Queen can go jump! 😀

  37. @ C@tmomma:

    True. He rightly picked me up around six years ago, but it was justified, and I did apologise indirectly to Puffy, the piss doing shocking things to one’s cognition, not that I’m a pisspot – I lie!

  39. rossmcg / steven

    Poor old BoM always cops it.

    People complaining might need to go and look at the original warnings. It was for a three-day event. The forecast is for more tonight.

    Climate change deniers love to have a go at the BoM.

  40. Ides of March says:

    Well thats strange. It was originally traced to Guam for years but then moved to Humpty Doo in September 2009

    I did not know the Humpty Doo station connection was so recent. Interesting. I left just before that.

  43. Paul Karp‏Verified account @Paul_Karp
    53m53 minutes ago
    Paul Kelly says that “radical elements of the LGBTI community” want same-sex marriage as the institutional norm. Well, them and 7.8m Australians #auspol #marriageequality

    :large

  45. C@

    Any expansion at Abbott Point and the railway line to the Galilee worth nothing if the Galilee coal not mined.

    Cross-fingers.

    On things up there I was surprised to see Euan Jones on the ABC saying there was no threat to the reef … but then realised he was talking about the mine itself rather than the shit-load of dredging that would be needed at Abbott Point itself. Marginal argument but maybe.

  47. Old pisspot Joyce – it takes one to know one – is a fraud.

    I well remember his ubiquitous appearances on RN before he entered politics, sucking up to Fran, who was delighted, she coming from a DLP background.

    He’ll no doubt win today, but his personal antecedents have been exposed, leading to a reasonable conclusion that he’s damaged goods.

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