BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

There were three new polls this week, from Essential Research, YouGov and ReachTEL, but I’m lacking a complete set of results for the latter, and am thus able to include only the first two in the weekly update of BludgerTrack. This is a bit unfortunate, as ReachTEL would have leavened the effects of two bad results for the Coalition. As a result, BludgerTrack records a lurch to Labor this week that may not be replicated next week, unless Newspoll is also bad for the Coalition (which, of course, it may very well be). Labor’s three gains on the seat projection consist of one each from Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Nothing new on leadership ratings. As always, see the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  1. BK
    She stood up for Big Business to help them delay proceedings long enough for litigants to slowly die. That’s probably her major achievement.

  4. You gotta laugh

    JUST IN: Flynn admits his actions were “wrong”: I’m working with Mueller because it’s in the best interest of the U… twitter.com/i/web/status/9…

  5. Re. sprocket’s pic, it’s counterintuitive to be young and a Tory; not going through a rebellious stage. And, given Bennelong has a large Chinese community, one would think more of them would be featured in his propaganda.

    And, I’m sick to death of JA being termed as a tennis champion. True it is that he won seven singles tournaments, twenty-eight doubles titles, and performed well in the Davis Cup. Yet he never went near to winning a slam, getting to the Australia Open semi-finals on three occasions but at a time when the best players bypassed the AO.

    He was a capable player but not a champion, and here’s hoping KK beats him love, love & love.

  6. BK says: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 11:17 am

    Has Julie Bishop ever gone out of her way to stand up for ONE principle?

    ************************************************

    Yes BK – she gives her 100 % loyalty to her leader !!!! ( well the new one she helped elect after plunging her dagger into the back of the previous leader she gave 100 % loyalty to )

  9. Interesting timing with the Bishop revelations. I daresay its the work of someone like Morrison or Dutton (or even Abbott) trying to knock out a key leadership competitor.

    I can’t imagine Turnbull would have been responsible. Surely, he must realize that a key frontbencher being thrown into a shit – even if she presents a significant threat to him – would also reflect incredibly poorly on his own leadership, increase the perception of a government in crisis, and achieve little beyond clearing the path for other challengers. Unless his judgement is even worse than I thought. Which, on the evidence so far, could very well be possible!

  11. lizzie – BishJnr like Costello, I’d say. Not likely to be offered much.

    Might get offered some sort of part time salaried ‘partnership’ in a large law firm IF the Libs were in power at the time.

  16. Asha Leu says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 11:27 am
    Interesting timing with the Bishop revelations. I daresay its the work of someone like Morrison or Dutton (or even Abbott) trying to knock out a key leadership competitor.

    Yup. She’s being leaked-against. This suggests Lib-spill cannot be far away.

  17. Charlton – Agree on JA.

    Deserves some credit for making himself available for 12 yrs of Davis Cup when he didn’t have much other ‘talent’ to consistently work with. When his doubles was going well for him as a decent earner I remember one of his partners being quite shitty with him as he was recovering from some injury but did the Davis Cup anyway.

    Not a ‘champion’ but a competent ‘journeyman’ who could make a living at it.

  20. Apropos the RAH Worker accidents, not that I wish to speak ill of the ill, but by way of an illustrative story, we have a Liberal Councillor on Central Coast Council who owns a business in the Building Trade.

    There was a Council meeting last Monday night and he was absent. We were told he will be absent for a few months. He fell off a roof. No safety rail?

  21. Bemused.

    Armidale was Windsor’s strong area. Plus it has the University of New England (and a proper NBN). Hardly surprising people there dont like Joyce.

    Pretty sure in 2016 Windsor was winning booths there on PV alone.

  23. John Cleese‏Verified account @JohnCleese · 16h16 hours ago

    So, here is the News this morning. The Leader of the Free World is now completely unhinged, but we can’t do anything at all about it because he has rock solid support from racists, and all the very rich Republicans who badly need another tax cut

    And now, the weather…

  28. If Joyce has been unwilling to actually campaign – that is, he has failed to face the people on their own terms, rather than as a media/promotional projection – then he really will deserve to be rejected by them.

  30. lizzie

    If that’s his wife with him it might be the only picture available that shows him looking like he’s campaigning with her support.

  32. The poor old BoM is under attack again from some Victorians who believe the warnings etc where ‘over the top’ given the amount of rain that did actually fall in parts of Victoria according to an article on the ABC.

    I beg to differ. Better to be informed than ill-informed. Those in the King Valley, Yea, Myrtleford, Wangaratta, Benalla and elsewhere are watching river and creek levels rising not to mention brown rot.

  36. [‘ I’m working with Mueller because it’s in the best interest of the U…’]

    He’s working with Mueller for one reason, and one reason only: he’s been offered a deal he can’t refuse, in much the same way as the criminal-class dob in their associates in order to receive a mollified sentence. But it comes with conditions. In my home state of Queensland, for instance (and it would be similar in other jurisdictions), see section 13A the Penalties and Sentences Act 1992.

    https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/view/pdf/inforce/current/act-1992-048

    I think Flynn has the potential to bring down Trump. (Btw phoenix, I enjoy your posts re. Trump.)

  37. Steven

    Poor old BoM always cops it.

    People complaining might need to go and look at the original warnings. It was for a three-day event. The forecast is for more tonight.

  39. So, how is the reshuffle going?
    Will McDonald finally get a real day job?
    Will Abbott return to piss inside the tent?
    Will Brandis’ bloviations finally make it to the Old Dart?
    Will a new Department of Pearls be created to address a certain issue?

  43. That’s a mighty big pearl Mrs Joyce has on, if it is indeed Mrs Joyce (and probably a photo from happier times methinks). Julie Bishop WILL be jealous!

  44. Blaming the BOM when the weather isn’t catastrophic despite strong warnings is like blaming an airline for the inconvenience when a flight is delayed due to a maintenance issue.

  45. Why would the Chinese want to grant a loan for a stranded asset? Especially after the way the Coalition treated their countryman this week to try and get Bill and Labor via Dasher, before the Bennelong by-election.

  46. C@tmomma

    Are there some juicy port and rail infrastructure attached ? The Chinese seem very keen on such facilities. They may be prepared to take a loss on the coal to get them.

  47. For those saying the GOP are going to stay with Trump. That game has changed.

    Now they cannot just keep calling the Russia thing Fake News. They may hang on to the end of the year to get their tax bill through.

    If it passes or fails they will be done with Trump.
    The thinking will be about mid terms. Each member has a different relation to their base than Trump.

    No tax bill passes they can blame Trump.
    Tax bill passes they don’t need Trump anymore.
    Flynn’s guilty plea has destroyed Fake News claims by Trump

  50. Good news if the Chinese bank is rejecting a loan to Adani.
    They would look at the overall health of the company, and take notice of the lack of support here, both from Australian banks and the government.

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