BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

There were three new polls this week, from Essential Research, YouGov and ReachTEL, but I’m lacking a complete set of results for the latter, and am thus able to include only the first two in the weekly update of BludgerTrack. This is a bit unfortunate, as ReachTEL would have leavened the effects of two bad results for the Coalition. As a result, BludgerTrack records a lurch to Labor this week that may not be replicated next week, unless Newspoll is also bad for the Coalition (which, of course, it may very well be). Labor’s three gains on the seat projection consist of one each from Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Nothing new on leadership ratings. As always, see the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  2. Speaking of BludgerTrack:

    William, you said above that there was no new leadership data, but didn’t Essential and YouGov both poll for approval and PPM this week?

  3. Steve777:

    If things get really hot for him, he’ll do a deal involving immunity for himself and his immediate family and betrayals of close allies and associates. He’ll retire from office for ‘health reasons’, declaring victory and the most brilliant Presidency since (and including) that of George Washington and quietly resume being a full time con artist.

    I think that’s probably a pretty accurate assessment.

  5. They have not yet grokked that Bill Shorten has sliced and diced both Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull.

    I am constantly amazed at the number of new words I keep learning from blogging on this site. Collectively You PBs are a very eloquent lot.

    But I was willing to bet big money that ‘grokked’ in C@t’s post above was just a typo. I couldn’t even conceive there could be such a word. But there it was when I looked it up.

    So my (fictitious) word of the year award goes to you C@t for 2017. You are obviously much better read than I am.

  6. He may well not survive next week.
    Rumour out of Canberra has 10 coalition and 3 Labor in the fit. Turnbull may well lose his Party Room numbers next Tuesday as well as control of the Parliament.
    The Right are priming. The PMO private office is on the phones. The public office has been sent home to stop leaks.
    Interesting times ahead.

  7. There’s one reason — one criminal charge, actually — that lets us safely assume Michael Flynn switched sides: He pleaded guilty to one charge of lying to the FBI, when there’s so much more the special counsel could have potentially nabbed him for.

    “[It] suggests a bombshell of a deal with prosecutors,” said Jens Ohlin, vice dean of law at Cornell, in an email. “The best explanation for why Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III would agree to it is that Flynn has something very valuable to offer in exchange: damaging testimony on someone else.”

    “One doesn’t plead guilty unless you hope to get something out of it,” said Jack Sharman, who was special counsel to Congress during the Whitewater investigations into Bill and Hillary Clinton’s real estate affairs.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/12/01/why-we-can-say-with-near-certainty-that-michael-flynn-has-flipped-sides-in-the-russia-investigation/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_graphic-russiaties-1253pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.73e517cae984

  8. My stones, even KR’s now calling for Trumble to shove off.

    Youse all need to get off Mal’s back and allow him to govern for the good of himself, I mean the country.

  9. Steve777 says: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:58 am

    “People like Trump have an amazing talent for avoiding the consequences of their actions”

    If things get really hot for him, he’ll do a deal involving immunity for himself and his immediate family and betrayals of close allies and associates. He’ll retire from office for ‘health reasons’, declaring victory and the most brilliant Presidency since (and including) that of George Washington and quietly resume being a full time con artist.

    *******************************************************

    He/they might get immunity/pardon under FEDERAL laws – but I bet NYAG Eric Schneiderman is waiting in the wings with STATE laws – which cannot be pardoned – and hit them with RICO charges ( money laundering, mob association, tax evasion etc ) ……. as well as any charges that may still come out of the Trump Modelling/Escort Agency stuff …..

  11. Michael Flynn’s plea on Friday to a single count of lying to the F.B.I. is a seismic event in the special counsel investigation.

    For starters, it portends the likelihood of impeachable charges being brought against the president of the United States. Mr. Flynn, a former national security adviser, acknowledged that he was cooperating with the investigation. His testimony could bring into the light a scandal of historic proportions in which the not-yet-installed Trump administration, including Donald Trump personally, sought to subvert American foreign policy before taking office.

    The repercussions of the plea will be months in the making, but it’s not an exaggeration to say that the events to which Mr. Flynn has agreed to testify will take their place in the history books alongside the Watergate and Iran-contra scandals.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/01/opinion/michael-flynn-guilty-plea-takeaways.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

    Says Flynn has just become the prosecution’s star witness, among other things.

  15. mikehilliard @ #90 Saturday, December 2nd, 2017 – 6:03 am

    Anyone know if any federal pollies made it to the big battery open day?

    The reports I’ve seen don’t mention any.

    I’d imagine the Libs wouldn’t want to be anywhere near it, especial since it’s right next to a wind farm and Labor would want Jay to get all the credit in light of the up coming State election.

  16. Darn

    I spotted this ‘word’ the other day –

    Schnapsidee (German)

    A crazy or impractical idea that seems ingenious when you’re drunk.

    😀

  17. MarkJacka‏ @themarkjacka · 12h12 hours ago

    Under Michelle Guthrie & @TurnbullMalcolm, the ABC has cut FactCheck, Catalyst & Lateline.
    Facts & the LNP have never got on well.

  19. Enough CNN for me for today. Last on Trump/Russians

    @RepJerryNadler

    Read my statement demanding @HouseJudiciary begin critical oversight work after former @realDonaldTrump National Security Advisor #MichaelFlynn pleaded guilty to criminal charges:

    pic.twitter.com/mhOo8ksOxA

  20. Vic
    The Flynn plea is indeed seismic. It goes back to the core reason why Trump fired Comey. Mueller is sharpening his focus. I don’t think the issue is trying to influence Russian foreign policy prior to taking office – although that is dangerous .
    The real issue is the Trump team collusion with Russian figures in an attempt to subvert the election campaign of Clinton. That is collusion and inevitable impeachment.
    Still a fair way to go.

  22. I think Trump is at the ‘throwing everything and everyone to try and keep the ship afloat’ stage of his Presidency.

    I wouldn’t be jettisoning Rex Tillerson if I were him. He would certainly know where some Russian skeletons were buried, and wouldn’t mind dobbing the ‘effing moron’ in.

  23. Darn,
    To ‘grok’ is such a perfect word. I discovered it when I read the Science Fiction novel, ‘Stranger In A Strange Land’ by Robert Heinlein. 🙂

  24. Al Pal says: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 10:30 am

    The real issue is the Trump team collusion with Russian figures in an attempt to subvert the election campaign of Clinton. That is collusion and inevitable impeachment.

    *************************************************

    I agree with you Al ……. Trump’s growing scandal involves possible election interference by a foreign country, US citizens collusion with said foreign agents, stolen emails and computer-assisted micro-targeting manipulations to suppress votes for Hillary Clinton

  25. ‘socrates says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:59 am

    Also kudos to SA (and Tesla and Neoen) for getting the battery up and running on time. This is a genuine technical achievement, unlike the press release and not done feasibility study that was Snow Job II. It made the news in the NY Times.’

    Plus One. A large project on time and on budget is rare these days. Given the lead time, this one is an extraordinary feat of project management.

  26. As you can see from the fact that Flynn Jr hasn’t been indicted by Mueller, yet, Flynn Sr has probably done the deal to save his kid. As well as himself to a great degree.

    There’s only one thing thicker than money, blood.

  28. AL Pal

    Long way to go indeed. There are so many tentacles to this imbroglio that includes China, Turkey, Israel, Iran and Qatar. TRump, Flynn Kushner and the rest of the treasonous team have a lot to answer for.

  30. ‘socrates

    I gave it no show of being on time but there it is. Good stuff by all. See what happens when the Coalition are not running things.

  31. I think the reason Flynn Sr was so invested in the Trump project, if you look at his extra national alliances with various Authoritarian regimes around the world, is that he was very keen on infiltrating American politics to institute a similar regime.

    Trump, Putin, Xi, Erdogan, the House of Saud, Duterte, Hun Sen, the Eastern Europeans, potentially Marine Le Pen. The world would have been their oyster, and all who lived in it their compliant serfs.

    ‘Dream Big’, eh?

    But as Icarus showed, the closer you fly to the sun, the easier it is to get burned and the further you have to fall to earth.

  33. The Socceroes draw is really tough. It is not just France, since there is one top team seeded into every group. Small nations hope to come second in their group to advance. But Denmark and Peru are also good. Peru are rated 10 and Denmark 17 and both climbing in the rankings. The only low ranked team in the group is us.

  36. C@t:

    Flynn copping to what he copped for is nothing compared to what Mueller could’ve charged him with, plus Mueller was leaning on Flynn Jnr. Flynn absolutely gave it up for his son.

  37. It seems Mr. Trump himself directed Mr. Flynn to make contact with the Russians during the campaign.

    If Mr. Flynn testifies to this — ABC’s Brian Ross is reporting that he will — it presents another impeachable offense along with the possible obstruction of justice. Even more, it brings the whole matter well outside the purview of the criminal courts into the province of a political scandal, indicating abuses of power arguably well beyond those in the Watergate and Iran-contra affairs.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/01/opinion/michael-flynn-guilty-plea-takeaways.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  39. Given the calibre of the aspirants for his job, I’d prefer that Mal Trumble stays where he is. Dutton may be the ‘champion of the party’s conservative faction’, but he’d garner little support from the punters. As for Bishop, J, she’s a lightweight, her time as Shadow Treasurer amply demonstrating same.

    The Tories are I think stuck with Mr. Trumble, who, judging by the carriage of his prime ministership, must surely be a fifth columnist.

  40. jenauthor

    Thanks for reminding me. I wondered what it was about. Seems Gillespie is one who is always wide awake to perks and is alreafy under a cloud. No wonder they tried to hide it.

    Dr Gillespie wanted extra expenses for all electorates 10,000 square kilometres or larger.

    The Assistant Health Minister’s seat is about 16,000 square kilometres in size, and includes towns of Taree and Wauchope.

    If implemented today, 24 Coalition MPs would benefit, along with six Labor members and two independents.

    Electorates 100,000 square kilometres or larger would have received an even bigger windfall under the blueprint.

    But the Government has only partly adopted one of his ideas by funding an extra office in Australia’s seven biggest electorates — a group of seats that does not include Lyne.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-02/pms-department-tries-to-hide-frontbenchers-bid-for-extra-perks/9218658

  41. Of course, the Finance Minister is the clever one, since her preference is for foreign travel and expensive clothes and jewels ‘for promotional purposes’. Interesting to speculate what post-parliament careers may be on offer.

  42. Regarding Julie Bishop’s connection to a Jewellery manufacturer/retailer.

    Have there been any applications to the Federal Government for the importation of Blood Diamonds recently?

  44. John Schindlers thoughts :

    The Spy Revolt Against Trump Begins

    Intelligence Community pushes back against a White House it considers leaky, untruthful and penetrated by the Kremlin

    I previously warned the Trump administration not to go to war with the nation’s spies, and here’s why. This is a risky situation, particularly since President Trump is prone to creating crises foreign and domestic with his incautious tweets. In the event of a serious international crisis of the sort which eventually befalls almost every administration, the White House will need the best intelligence possible to prevent war, possibly even nuclear war. It may not get the information it needs in that hour of crisis, and for that it has nobody to blame but itself.

    http://observer.com/2017/02/donald-trump-administration-mike-flynn-russian-embassy/

  45. In other SA news there is finally legal action on one of the two worker fatalities at the RAH site. One construction fatality is tragic. Two on the same job raises serious questions about management.
    https://indaily.com.au/news/2017/12/01/state-govt-body-to-sue-new-rah-joint-venture/
    ______________
    Socrates
    I came across this in the new SBS series “Chance” last week and it seems appropriate to the above story.
    “Once is a mistake. Twice is a decision”.

  46. John Setka‏ @CFMEUJohnSetka · 45m45 minutes ago

    .@autismvictoria
    For people on the autism spectrum coming to @CFMEU #PicnicDay this Monday. The Quiet Room is between the animal nursery btwn Gate 9 car park & the main carnival area. #Enjoy

  47. There’s got to be a question for Turnbull in QT that connects Bishop’s use of very expensive jewelry and Kevin’s old ute. A question along the lines of wilful blindness, double standards and hypocrisy.

  48. What interests me about the Bishop earrings tale is that the Murdochracy appears to have turned against her, running very damning comments from a colleague.

    Up until now she has been a media favourite.

  50. This wouldn’t post on the New England thread.

    Bellinger River ALP‏ @BellingenLabor · 1h1 hour ago

    Lots of people turning up at the booth in south Armidale saying I will vote for anyone except the #KIWI. #beatbarnaby #newengland #votelabor

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