There were three new polls this week, from Essential Research, YouGov and ReachTEL, but I’m lacking a complete set of results for the latter, and am thus able to include only the first two in the weekly update of BludgerTrack. This is a bit unfortunate, as ReachTEL would have leavened the effects of two bad results for the Coalition. As a result, BludgerTrack records a lurch to Labor this week that may not be replicated next week, unless Newspoll is also bad for the Coalition (which, of course, it may very well be). Labor’s three gains on the seat projection consist of one each from Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Nothing new on leadership ratings. As always, see the sidebar for full results.
Note that I’ve got a separate post if you want to discuss the New England by-election.
Its all happening :
Mike Flynn ‘prepared to testify against Trump and his family’ in Mueller’s Russia probe: report
Sources tell ABC News that former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn is expected to deliver direct evidence against President Donald Trump and his family in the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.
Most significantly, Ross’ source says that Flynn will tell Mueller that Trump as a presidential candidate ordered him to make “direct contact” with the Russian government to help his campaign.
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/mike-flynn-prepared-to-testify-against-trump-and-his-family-in-muellers-russia-probe-report/
William,
Tks for new post.
[… unless Newspoll is also bad for the Coalition (which, of course, it may very well be).]
The tabling of the ‘Statements in relation to citizenship’ by individual members may play a part in Newspoll next week!
Mike Flynn: What did Pence know and when did he know it?
The bombshell announcement that Donald Trump’s top campaign surrogate and former national security adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe rocked the White House on Friday.
Flynn’s guilty plea indicates he is cooperating with Mueller’s team, and he is reportedly “prepared to testify against Trump and his family” in the special counsel investigation, including that as a candidate he directed Flynn to contact with Russian officials. But there’s another member of the president’s inner circle—beyond just his immediate family—who may be implicated in Flynn’s decision to flip: Vice President Mike Pence.
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/mike-flynn-what-did-pence-know-and-when-did-he-know-it/
Kushner instructed Flynn to make direct contact with Russian ambassador during transition: report
Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner was reportedly the “senior transition official” who instructed former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn to talk with former Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak to discuss a UN resolution condemning Israeli settlement activity.
Two sources tell Bloomberg’s Eli Lake that Kushner “called Flynn to tell him he needed to get every foreign minister or ambassador from a country on the U.N. Security Council to delay or vote against the resolution.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/kushner-instructed-flynn-to-make-direct-contact-with-russian-ambassador-during-transition-report/
poroti (from the end of the last thread)
They are indeed.
But the one about ditching the recently announced trade sanctions was a direct undermining of formal US Foreign Policy and generally considered ‘not in the ball park’ for negotiation pre-an election result.
The Trump Crime Family Is Collapsing As A Top Senate Investigator Is Coming For Jared Kushner and Trump Jr.
Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), the ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee told reporters that due to information that Mike Flynn has given, investigators now want to talk to Jared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr.
Mike Flynn is the biggest domino to fall to date. If what is already publicly known holds true, Flynn has information about the activities and Russia connections of Jared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr. Flynn’s flip was the worst thing that could have happened to the President.
We are just starting to scratch the surface and see how bad it could get for Trump and his family. Mark Warner is one successful Democraric midterm election away from becoming the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Trump is trying to hold back a tidal wave with a sandcastle, and it looks like he is going to be swept out to sea.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/12/01/trump-crime-family-collapsing-top-senate-investigator-coming-jared-kushner-trump-jr.html
Palmer Report@PalmerReport
Donald Trump’s day so far:
– Michael Flynn pleads guilty
– Donald Trump is toast
– Donald Trump Jr is toast
– Jared Kushner is toast
– Mike Pence is toast
– Rudy Giuliani is toast
– Robert Mueller is eating toast
– James Comey is quoting the Bible
– It’s still only 2pm
CTar1
It was however after the election and during the transition period. This is from the “Statement of Offence” looks pretty Zzz stuff. As I said the real WTF? is why he lied over such non ‘exciting’ stuff. His “business” dealings with Turkey are probably where the real skeletons are buried for Flynn.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-01/statement-offense-here-full-michael-flynn-plea-agreement
One thing I’ll say for Turnbull, his PM-ship has been riveting for its endless back-to-back (sorry, consecutive) worst ever weeks. It must be some kind of record.
Usually when we witness the last days of an embattled PM there is at least one if not two obvious challengers.
I get the impression that most of the obvious candidates don’t want to be the one to lead the party to a likely defeat. The smarter ones know that they have a whole lot of factional problems to address before they can seriously mount another attempt at government.
Someone good at getting out three word slogans will save some furniture for them, but if it is Abbott I think they will get really badly beaten.
US: Flynn has confirmed he is co-operating with the Mueller investigation –
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/01/politics/michael-flynn-charged/index.html
CTar1
From reading the Statement of Offence” he only asked that Russia respond in a “reciprocal manner” and not to “escalate” things. that is not undermining it and sounds a very sensible thing to want.
CTar1 says: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 7:08 am
poroti (from the end of the last thread)
Such contacts and discussions between campaigns and foreign reps re polices affecting the two countries are absolutely SOP.
They are indeed.
But the one about ditching the recently announced trade sanctions was a direct undermining of formal US Foreign Policy and generally considered ‘not in the ball park’ for negotiation pre-an election result.
**************************************************************
Flynn was not talking about the weather with the Russians – note the date January 24/FBI interview – this has been going on for some time
On January 24, the FBI interviewed Flynn about his conversations with Kislyak. In that interview, prosecutors say, Flynn “falsely stated” that he did not discuss the issue of US sanctions with Kislyak and that he did not recall Kislyak following up to tell him that Russia would moderate its response as a result of Flynn’s request.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/michael-flynn-mueller-trump-russia-jared-kushner-2017-12?r=US&IR=T
Northwester
It would be madness – worse than the recall of KRudd. Even hard core Liberals would find this hard to swallow. The ‘donkey votes’ and ‘didn’t bother’ would go through the roof at an election, I’d reckon.
US: The latest –
Ctari and Poroti
So hes pleading guilty to lying about talking to the Russians and not going to plead the fifth as part of his deal?
Sounds like he really has flipped then. I wonder what huge thing he wants to try and avoid being charged with though. Treason?
For the old people here, today is the 45th anniversary of the election of Saint Gough.
Thanks for the heads up William 🙂
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Quite a big roundup today!
Here we go! Flynn has just pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI’s probe into Russian electoral meddling.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/former-trump-adviser-michael-flynn-charged-with-lying-to-the-fbi-20171201-gzxa2m.html
And his guilty plea represents an ominous sign for the White House.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/michael-flynns-guilty-plea-is-an-ominous-sign-for-the-white-house-20171201-gzxaeb.html
Richard Wolffe says that Flynn is just the tip of the iceberg.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/01/michael-flynn-wrongdoing-tip-iceberg
Latika Burke on Rudd advising Turnbull to just go for the good of the country.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-for-the-good-of-your-party-and-the-country-just-go-kevin-rudd-unloads-20171201-gzx7up.html
Dennis Shanahan says “This is the end of Camelot. No matter whether he survives to this Christmas or the next, the Prime Minister’s authority is gone.” Google.
/news/inquirer/turnbull-faces-abbott-question-amid-loss-of-authority/news-story/8ccce5c2a13d536f22fc49767c8f2f53
Peter Hartcher declares Turnbull to be safe for this year’s “killing season”.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-can-breathe-easy-this-will-be-a-killing-season-without-a-killing-20171201-gzwogj.html
Paul Kelly writes that Turnbull is caught in two epic conflicts between conservatives and progressives in the Liberal Party, and between ¬Liberals and Nationals as ¬Coalition partners. Google.
/news/inquirer/turnbull-caught-in-two-epic-conflicts/news-story/a9493471279bfba34b39235acd41ccca
Sean Nicholls says that John Barilaro’s extraordinary full frontal attack on Malcolm Turnbull reflects a rising panic in the ranks of his state colleagues about the knock-on effect of an increasingly unpopular federal Coalition government.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/barilaros-call-for-turnbulls-resignation-reflects-rising-nsw-panic-20171130-gzwiia.html
Mark Kenny on the rumblings in the ranks over Turnbull’s RC backflip.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/disorder-malcolm-turnbulls-critics-have-been-banking-on-it-20171129-gzux5p.html
Ross Gittins thinks there’s a good chance the commission’s establishment will be seen as the most visible marker of the time when the two sides of politics turned their backs on the era of bizonomics – the doctrine that what’s good for big business is good for the economy and the punters who make it up.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/we-might-have-just-seen-an-end-to-age-of-bizonomics-20171201-gzwoze.html
Section 2 . . .
Phil Coorey on how the Nats have visited ruin on Turnbull yet again. He concludes with “Joyce will once more be the member for New England but he will be lucky to be able to control his own party, let alone help Turnbull and the Coalition.” Google.
/news/not-the-first-time-the-nationals-have-visited-ruin-upon-malcolm-turnbull-20171129-gzuww6
Paul Bongiorno also has his say on how the Nats have turned on Turnbull.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2017/12/02/nationals-turn-turnbull/15121332005573
Malcolm Turnbull’s banking backflip has left him looking weak and embattled says Paula Matthewson.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/12/01/malcolm-turnbull-banking-inquiry-backflip/
A former state Liberal leader has accused the Turnbull government of political motivations by allowing the banks to drag industry superannuation funds into the impending financial services royal commission. One only needs to look at Dutton’s glee to see that this guy is on the money.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/former-liberal-leader-claims-bank-influence-on-government-is-blatantly-obvious-20171201-gzx25i.html
The former senior judge who steered the landmark HIH Royal Commission has applauded the choice of Kenneth Hayne to lead the government’s banking inquiry, but warned that “hard decisions” would need to be made on which issues to examine during its 12 month run.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/hih-royal-commissioner-says-hard-decisions-ahead-for-banking-inquiry-20171201-gzww8v.html
Crispin Hull put it to us that One Nation didn’t fail – its dangerous national socialism is on the rise.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/queensland-election-one-nation-didnt-fail-its-dangerous-national-socialism-is-on-the-rise-20171130-gzwl09.html
A civil war between former Liberals and National members is expected to break out if there is any push to demerge the Liberal National Party in Queensland following last Saturday’s disappointing state election result. Google.
/news/politics/lnp-civil-war-brewing-in-qld-election-fallout-20171201-gzwpsg
Jack Waterford says that without a Dastyari operating as a secret agent for the Coalition, all the focus might have been on Turnbull’s complete humiliation over a banking inquiry.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sam-dastyari-the-prime-ministers-secret-agent-of-destruction-20171130-gzwhzv.html
Does the Queensland election have federal implications? You bet it does, writes Ben Eltham.
https://newmatilda.com/2017/12/01/why-the-queensland-election-matters-on-the-national-stage/
The SMH editorial is quite hard hitting as it points the finger at what Turnbull’s problems really are.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/the-pm-turns-retreat-into-a-rout-20171201-gzx2gh.html
Section 3 . . .
Richard Dennis tells us that Australians hate hypocrites, as the Coalition and big business are finding out. This is a very good article.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australians-hate-hypocrites-as-the-coalition-and-big-business-are-finding-out-20171201-gzwntb.html
David Wroe goes on the campaign trail in New England.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/barnaby-bullets-and-blowins-the-race-that-has-left-joyce-challengers-fuming-20171201-gzwujg.html
David Speers says that Barnaby Joyce will really have his hands full when he returns to parliament. Google.
/news/opinion/barnaby-joyce-faces-more-challenges-if-he-wins-byelection/news-story/e8ad0d32c3988fc0005f14c6ce74f745
Britain’s looming exit from the European Union has triggered a record drop in immigration, with more than three-quarters of the dip due to more EU citizens leaving and fewer arriving, according to official data released Thursday. It’s a Brexodus!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/brexodus-uk-net-migration-falls-by-biggest-amount-since-records-began-20171130-gzwfb4.html
Mike Seccombe – “We’ve been treating our low-income households really poorly for a long time and we have a situation of poverty like we haven’t had since the 1970s.” How the rich are getting richer.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/economy/2017/12/02/how-the-rich-are-getting-richer/15121332005584
Kate McClymont with yet more on Don Burke. There’s now an avalanche of complaints. The complicity of Channel Nine is very evident.
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/in-their-own-words-women-speak-up-against-don-burke-20171201-gzx4eq.html
Clementine Ford writes on how university colleges are breeding the sexual predators of tomorrow.
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-and-views/opinion/how-university-colleges-are-breeding-the-sexual-predators-of-tomorrow-20171201-gzwphx.html
Anna Patty says that despite Weinstein, Burke and more, little has changed inside the ordinary workplace.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/despite-weinstein-burke-and-more-little-has-changed-inside-the-ordinary-workplace-20171128-gzuvho.html
Johathan Freedland writes that in the age of Trump, it’s time for the UK to ditch the special relationship with the US.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/01/donald-trump-theresa-may-special-relationship-hate-filled-tweets
Australia’s most senior churchmen, including the Anglican and Catholic archbishops of Sydney, have made a list-ditch plea to political leaders to salvage religious exemptions in the same-sex marriage bill. The rear-guard action continues.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/church-leaders-in-lastditch-pushback-against-samesex-marriage-bill-20171201-gzx8sw.html
With Flynn flipping, there seems no doubt now that there will be charges levelled at Trump by Mueller’s team.
By now Trump will know that Hannibal is at portus. His tweets suggest he is in an aggressive state of denial. This period now until he is removed from office is a dangerous time given the psychological pressure the man must be under.
Hard to keep up with the slow-mo train-wrecks here and in USA.
Section 4 . . .
Karen Middleton writes about the disturbing linkage of the alt-right to the SSM NO movement.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2017/12/02/alt-right-links-the-no-case/15121332005586
Is God still moving in strange ways?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/01/archbishop-to-be-assessed-for-fitness-to-stand-trial-over-sexual-abuse-cover-up
The politicised push to eliminate asylum seeker deaths at sea has tragically failed to calculate greater humanitarian costs and the deaths of 11 people.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/12/02/the-human-toll-manus/15121332005587
Well Done Jay Weatherill! And now there are more renewables/battery projects on the way.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/history-in-the-making-tesla-switches-on-worlds-largest-battery-in-sa-20171130-gzwhah.html
A dial-a-dealer cocaine service operating out of Sydney’s CBD has been smashed, with more than 30 people arrested in a two-month operation that resulted in 120 charges being laid.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/just-like-ordering-a-pizza-dozens-arrested-as-cbd-cocaine-syndicates-busted-20171201-gzwtaa.html
Liquidators investigating the collapse of Queensland Nickel will be able to enter the company’s offices and seize financial documents if they are not handed over by next Wednesday.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/queensland/2017/12/01/clive-palmer-queensland-nickel/
Overwhelming public opposition to the Adani coalmine in northern Queensland tipped the scales in state election campaigning. But now that’s over, what influence does it have at a federal level and on the mine’s future?
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/12/02/the-future-the-adani-mine/15121332005585
Harold Mitchell on how companies should treat Christmas.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/its-christmas-time-to-ease-off-and-look-after-the-people-that-really-matter-20171130-gzvu11.html
Customers with Telstra’s low-cost broadband and mobile provider, Belong, have been left seething after they were mistakenly billed multiple times for their service in the run-up to Christmas.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/12/01/telstra-stuff-up-sees-customers-massively-overcharged-again/
Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner
David Rowe pre-empts Rex Tillerson’s departure.
Glen Le Lievre has Turnbull placed in the pocket of the big banks.
John Shakespeare and the killing season.
Jim Pavlidis doesn’t think Turnbull is sleeping too well these days.
David Pope inside Trump’s war room.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
Alan Moir on Dastyari’s performance.
Peter Broelman – any rort in a storm.
Broelman on who’s pulling the strings on the banking RC.
Paul Zanetti on Turnbull’s decision making.
Glen Le Lievre and the office predator.
Matt Golding brings out Abbott’s sacrificial goats.
And he explains the banking RC ‘s terms of reference.
Mark Knight on the substantial impetus imposed on Turnbull over the RC.
Sean Leahy says it all here!
Jon Kudelka and Turnbull’s “decision”.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ea45695b5e5d885550159e8303c34df9
US:
Kushner outed as person who directed Flynn to have discussions with Kislyak.
Why gas and coal plants should pay for solar plus storage to improve security. Australia Institute report.
Suck on that Turnbull and Frydenberg – you can take your NEG and shove it.
and
http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/P454%20Can%27t%20stand%20the%20heat%20FINAL%202.3.pdf
Peter Hartcher speculates on Dutton’s long term prospects…
“He’s not impatient for the leadership and he’s realistic enough to see that he is unpopular with the people. He knows that he has to change his image. That will take time. At 47, he has plenty of it.
But while he’s working for the success of the Turnbull government, he, like all of his colleagues, has thought about the party’s options if it can’t be salvaged. He’s given colleagues the idea that, in the face of inevitable defeat at the next election in the next year to 18 months, he’d hope for a gracious Turnbull resignation. This would open the way to an “easy handover” of the leadership.”
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-can-breathe-easy-this-will-be-a-killing-season-without-a-killing-20171201-gzwogj.html
Funny Hartcher doesnt seem to consider the obvious point that Dutton will very likely lose his seat at the next election.
BK
“Camelot” – Shanahan really is away with the fairies.
If the LNP bring in TA to save the furniture we may see a significant surge for Cory’s Conservatives in the next election.
Ctar1
Turnbull equivalent with JFK?
LOL.
Morning bludgers
Thanks BK and Phoenix for today’s bumper offerings!
BK
Not often I agree with Coorey!
The END of Camelot?? When did it start?
It’s more like finally getting around to putting down Rosinante.
I think this lady’s reaction to the news could just as easily be victoria and phoenix
https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/936657237598228480
IoM
I guess so but that might be stretching.
However the actual charge is described I heard earlier that he could get up to five years for lying to the FBI (the thing he pleaded guilty to earlier today).
The news that Flynn has flipped can only mean one thing………….
Donald Trump is going to jail….!
bk
You missed PvO’s latest contribution to the book “Blame Labor 1001 Ways”
.
“The breakdown of our body politic can be traced to the Opposition Leader. He’s been at the heart of it for year”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/et-tu-shorten-the-decline-and-fall-of-political-culture/news-story/dcb2509da1ac1466d865204d2012810b
Ctar1
Manafort is charged with “conspiracy against the US”. Maybe Flyn had something similar hanging over his head?
Well, the time of my life when I experienced the LEAST sexism was when I lived at Queen’s College in Melbourne in the late 70s.
I also felt utterly safe there, despite girls being about a quarter of the residents.
In fact, the guys there were very protective – Term 3 (as it was then) was notorious for random attacks on women in the area, and the guys at College would always stress to us that it wasn’t safe to go out alone and offer to escort us at any time.
(I still knicked down to Twinnies late at night for a souv…)
I was in far more danger of being groped when I went home and mixed with people from my mother’s church…
Perfect summary
Conversation
John Schindler
John Schindler
@20committee
Team Trump is a collection of malignant narcissists who will now sell each other out like crack whores.
Is this the first time Bludgertrack has shown over 54 TPP to ALP?
‘But while he’s working for the success of the Turnbull government…’
Ah. So it’s Dutton’s fault.
IoM – That’s probably it.
As I expect you know Mueller will do the usual and stick them with virtually anything at the start and escalate as he feels fit later.
IoM
My guess is his dealings with Turkey.
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2017/11/20/michael-flynn-and-the-turkish-connection/
Ides of March @ #33 Saturday, December 2nd, 2017 – 8:04 am
I do believe the lady could bottle happiness. 🙋
sonar says: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 8:10 am
The news that Flynn has flipped can only mean one thing………….
Donald Trump is going to jail….!
***************************************************
Ex NSA John Schindler predicted many months ago that he will die penniless in a jail cell …..
US intel community ‘ready to go nuclear’ against Donald Trump over Russia ties, claims former NSA analyst
US President ‘will die in jail,’ says former National Security Agency employee, John Schindler – |Friday 17 February 2017 18:58 GMT|
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-intelligence-community-ready-go-nuclear-donald-trump-russia-nsa-a7585926.html
Kayjay
That lady just happens to be called Joy (Joy Behar). She has the branding down already.
Rain now steady in Canberra. We’ve just past the 26mm mark since 6pm yesterday.
No smash down rain and I hope it stays that way.
And I’ve just realised I’ve not put my rain gauge back up after replacing the courtyard fence. Bugger!
Poroti
That be hilarious. Testify against Trump for Russia to avoid going down for Turkey.
Ides of March (Block)
Saturday, December 2nd, 2017 – 8:25 am
Comment #46
👍👍
ides Of March
Joy Behar is anti Trump through and through!
It is good to see that things are progressing. For me it feels like it is taking forever. Remember I naively believed that Trump would not even get to inauguration. Yet here we are Nearly a year later…….