BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

There were three new polls this week, from Essential Research, YouGov and ReachTEL, but I’m lacking a complete set of results for the latter, and am thus able to include only the first two in the weekly update of BludgerTrack. This is a bit unfortunate, as ReachTEL would have leavened the effects of two bad results for the Coalition. As a result, BludgerTrack records a lurch to Labor this week that may not be replicated next week, unless Newspoll is also bad for the Coalition (which, of course, it may very well be). Labor’s three gains on the seat projection consist of one each from Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Nothing new on leadership ratings. As always, see the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  1. Its all happening :

    Mike Flynn ‘prepared to testify against Trump and his family’ in Mueller’s Russia probe: report

    Sources tell ABC News that former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn is expected to deliver direct evidence against President Donald Trump and his family in the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

    Most significantly, Ross’ source says that Flynn will tell Mueller that Trump as a presidential candidate ordered him to make “direct contact” with the Russian government to help his campaign.

  2. William,

    Tks for new post.

    [… unless Newspoll is also bad for the Coalition (which, of course, it may very well be).]

    The tabling of the ‘Statements in relation to citizenship’ by individual members may play a part in Newspoll next week!

  3. Mike Flynn: What did Pence know and when did he know it?

    The bombshell announcement that Donald Trump’s top campaign surrogate and former national security adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe rocked the White House on Friday.

    Flynn’s guilty plea indicates he is cooperating with Mueller’s team, and he is reportedly “prepared to testify against Trump and his family” in the special counsel investigation, including that as a candidate he directed Flynn to contact with Russian officials. But there’s another member of the president’s inner circle—beyond just his immediate family—who may be implicated in Flynn’s decision to flip: Vice President Mike Pence.

  4. Kushner instructed Flynn to make direct contact with Russian ambassador during transition: report

    Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner was reportedly the “senior transition official” who instructed former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn to talk with former Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak to discuss a UN resolution condemning Israeli settlement activity.

    Two sources tell Bloomberg’s Eli Lake that Kushner “called Flynn to tell him he needed to get every foreign minister or ambassador from a country on the U.N. Security Council to delay or vote against the resolution.”

  5. poroti (from the end of the last thread)

    Such contacts and discussions between campaigns and foreign reps re polices affecting the two countries are absolutely SOP.

    They are indeed.

    But the one about ditching the recently announced trade sanctions was a direct undermining of formal US Foreign Policy and generally considered ‘not in the ball park’ for negotiation pre-an election result.

  6. The Trump Crime Family Is Collapsing As A Top Senate Investigator Is Coming For Jared Kushner and Trump Jr.

    Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), the ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee told reporters that due to information that Mike Flynn has given, investigators now want to talk to Jared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr.

    Mike Flynn is the biggest domino to fall to date. If what is already publicly known holds true, Flynn has information about the activities and Russia connections of Jared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr. Flynn’s flip was the worst thing that could have happened to the President.

    We are just starting to scratch the surface and see how bad it could get for Trump and his family. Mark Warner is one successful Democraric midterm election away from becoming the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Trump is trying to hold back a tidal wave with a sandcastle, and it looks like he is going to be swept out to sea.

  7. Palmer Report‏@PalmerReport

    Donald Trump’s day so far:

    – Michael Flynn pleads guilty
    – Donald Trump is toast
    – Donald Trump Jr is toast
    – Jared Kushner is toast
    – Mike Pence is toast
    – Rudy Giuliani is toast
    – Robert Mueller is eating toast
    – James Comey is quoting the Bible
    – It’s still only 2pm

  8. CTar1

    It was however after the election and during the transition period. This is from the “Statement of Offence” looks pretty Zzz stuff. As I said the real WTF? is why he lied over such non ‘exciting’ stuff. His “business” dealings with Turkey are probably where the real skeletons are buried for Flynn.

    On that call, FLYNN and the PTT(Presidential Transition Team) official discussed the U.S. Sanctions, including the potential impact of those sanctions on the incoming administration’s foreign policy goals. The PTT official and FLYNN also discussed that the members of the Presidential Transition Team at Mar-a-Lago did not want Russia to escalate the situation. Immediately after his phone call with the PTT official, FLYNN called the Russian Ambassador and requested that Russia not escalate the situation and only respond to the U.S Sanctions in a reciprocal manner………

  9. One thing I’ll say for Turnbull, his PM-ship has been riveting for its endless back-to-back (sorry, consecutive) worst ever weeks. It must be some kind of record.

    Usually when we witness the last days of an embattled PM there is at least one if not two obvious challengers.

    I get the impression that most of the obvious candidates don’t want to be the one to lead the party to a likely defeat. The smarter ones know that they have a whole lot of factional problems to address before they can seriously mount another attempt at government.

    Someone good at getting out three word slogans will save some furniture for them, but if it is Abbott I think they will get really badly beaten.

  10. CTar1

    From reading the Statement of Offence” he only asked that Russia respond in a “reciprocal manner” and not to “escalate” things. that is not undermining it and sounds a very sensible thing to want.

  11. CTar1 says: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 7:08 am

    poroti (from the end of the last thread)

    Such contacts and discussions between campaigns and foreign reps re polices affecting the two countries are absolutely SOP.

    They are indeed.

    But the one about ditching the recently announced trade sanctions was a direct undermining of formal US Foreign Policy and generally considered ‘not in the ball park’ for negotiation pre-an election result.

    Flynn was not talking about the weather with the Russians – note the date January 24/FBI interview – this has been going on for some time

    On January 24, the FBI interviewed Flynn about his conversations with Kislyak. In that interview, prosecutors say, Flynn “falsely stated” that he did not discuss the issue of US sanctions with Kislyak and that he did not recall Kislyak following up to tell him that Russia would moderate its response as a result of Flynn’s request.

  12. Northwester

    … if it is Abbott I think they will get really badly beaten.

    It would be madness – worse than the recall of KRudd. Even hard core Liberals would find this hard to swallow. The ‘donkey votes’ and ‘didn’t bother’ would go through the roof at an election, I’d reckon.

  13. US: The latest –

    The agreement says Flynn will be interviewed in the future by federal prosecutors and law enforcement. He won’t have a lawyer with him in those meetings or have the ability to plead his Fifth Amendment rights as a way to refrain from answering questions. (The agreement says Flynn could request to have an attorney present later.)

    Flynn has to turn over any “evidence of crimes” he might be aware of, the plea agreement said.

  14. Ctari and Poroti

    So hes pleading guilty to lying about talking to the Russians and not going to plead the fifth as part of his deal?

    Sounds like he really has flipped then. I wonder what huge thing he wants to try and avoid being charged with though. Treason?

  15. Thanks for the heads up William 🙂

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Quite a big roundup today!

    Here we go! Flynn has just pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI’s probe into Russian electoral meddling.
    And his guilty plea represents an ominous sign for the White House.
    Richard Wolffe says that Flynn is just the tip of the iceberg.
    Latika Burke on Rudd advising Turnbull to just go for the good of the country.
    Dennis Shanahan says “This is the end of Camelot. No matter whether he survives to this Christmas or the next, the Prime Minister’s authority is gone.” Google.
    Peter Hartcher declares Turnbull to be safe for this year’s “killing season”.
    Paul Kelly writes that Turnbull is caught in two epic conflicts between conservatives and progressives in the Liberal Party, and between ¬Liberals and Nationals as ¬Coalition partners. Google.
    Sean Nicholls says that John Barilaro’s extraordinary full frontal attack on Malcolm Turnbull reflects a rising panic in the ranks of his state colleagues about the knock-on effect of an increasingly unpopular federal Coalition government.
    Mark Kenny on the rumblings in the ranks over Turnbull’s RC backflip.
    Ross Gittins thinks there’s a good chance the commission’s establishment will be seen as the most visible marker of the time when the two sides of politics turned their backs on the era of bizonomics – the doctrine that what’s good for big business is good for the economy and the punters who make it up.

  16. Section 2 . . .

    Phil Coorey on how the Nats have visited ruin on Turnbull yet again. He concludes with “Joyce will once more be the member for New England but he will be lucky to be able to control his own party, let alone help Turnbull and the Coalition.” Google.
    Paul Bongiorno also has his say on how the Nats have turned on Turnbull.
    Malcolm Turnbull’s banking backflip has left him looking weak and embattled says Paula Matthewson.
    A former state Liberal leader has accused the Turnbull government of political motivations by allowing the banks to drag industry superannuation funds into the impending financial services royal commission. One only needs to look at Dutton’s glee to see that this guy is on the money.
    The former senior judge who steered the landmark HIH Royal Commission has applauded the choice of Kenneth Hayne to lead the government’s banking inquiry, but warned that “hard decisions” would need to be made on which issues to examine during its 12 month run.
    Crispin Hull put it to us that One Nation didn’t fail – its dangerous national socialism is on the rise.
    A civil war between former Liberals and National members is expected to break out if there is any push to demerge the Liberal National Party in Queensland following last Saturday’s disappointing state election result. Google.
    Jack Waterford says that without a Dastyari operating as a secret agent for the Coalition, all the focus might have been on Turnbull’s complete humiliation over a banking inquiry.
    Does the Queensland election have federal implications? You bet it does, writes Ben Eltham.
    The SMH editorial is quite hard hitting as it points the finger at what Turnbull’s problems really are.

  17. Section 3 . . .

    Richard Dennis tells us that Australians hate hypocrites, as the Coalition and big business are finding out. This is a very good article.
    David Wroe goes on the campaign trail in New England.
    David Speers says that Barnaby Joyce will really have his hands full when he returns to parliament. Google.
    Britain’s looming exit from the European Union has triggered a record drop in immigration, with more than three-quarters of the dip due to more EU citizens leaving and fewer arriving, according to official data released Thursday. It’s a Brexodus!
    Mike Seccombe – “We’ve been treating our low-income households really poorly for a long time and we have a situation of poverty like we haven’t had since the 1970s.” How the rich are getting richer.
    Kate McClymont with yet more on Don Burke. There’s now an avalanche of complaints. The complicity of Channel Nine is very evident.
    Clementine Ford writes on how university colleges are breeding the sexual predators of tomorrow.
    Anna Patty says that despite Weinstein, Burke and more, little has changed inside the ordinary workplace.
    Johathan Freedland writes that in the age of Trump, it’s time for the UK to ditch the special relationship with the US.
    Australia’s most senior churchmen, including the Anglican and Catholic archbishops of Sydney, have made a list-ditch plea to political leaders to salvage religious exemptions in the same-sex marriage bill. The rear-guard action continues.

  18. With Flynn flipping, there seems no doubt now that there will be charges levelled at Trump by Mueller’s team.

    By now Trump will know that Hannibal is at portus. His tweets suggest he is in an aggressive state of denial. This period now until he is removed from office is a dangerous time given the psychological pressure the man must be under.

    Hard to keep up with the slow-mo train-wrecks here and in USA.

  19. Section 4 . . .

    Karen Middleton writes about the disturbing linkage of the alt-right to the SSM NO movement.
    Is God still moving in strange ways?
    The politicised push to eliminate asylum seeker deaths at sea has tragically failed to calculate greater humanitarian costs and the deaths of 11 people.
    Well Done Jay Weatherill! And now there are more renewables/battery projects on the way.
    A dial-a-dealer cocaine service operating out of Sydney’s CBD has been smashed, with more than 30 people arrested in a two-month operation that resulted in 120 charges being laid.
    Liquidators investigating the collapse of Queensland Nickel will be able to enter the company’s offices and seize financial documents if they are not handed over by next Wednesday.
    Overwhelming public opposition to the Adani coalmine in northern Queensland tipped the scales in state election campaigning. But now that’s over, what influence does it have at a federal level and on the mine’s future?
    Harold Mitchell on how companies should treat Christmas.
    Customers with Telstra’s low-cost broadband and mobile provider, Belong, have been left seething after they were mistakenly billed multiple times for their service in the run-up to Christmas.

  20. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe pre-empts Rex Tillerson’s departure.

    Glen Le Lievre has Turnbull placed in the pocket of the big banks.

    John Shakespeare and the killing season.

    Jim Pavlidis doesn’t think Turnbull is sleeping too well these days.

    David Pope inside Trump’s war room.
    Alan Moir on Dastyari’s performance.

    Peter Broelman – any rort in a storm.

    Broelman on who’s pulling the strings on the banking RC.

    Paul Zanetti on Turnbull’s decision making.

    Glen Le Lievre and the office predator.

    Matt Golding brings out Abbott’s sacrificial goats.

    And he explains the banking RC ‘s terms of reference.

    Mark Knight on the substantial impetus imposed on Turnbull over the RC.

    Sean Leahy says it all here!

    Jon Kudelka and Turnbull’s “decision”.

  21. Why gas and coal plants should pay for solar plus storage to improve security. Australia Institute report.

    Australia’s reliance on an ageing fleet of coal and gas power plants that are unable to cope with increasing temperatures and more frequent heatwaves is the single greatest threat to the energy security of our electricity system.

    Suck on that Turnbull and Frydenberg – you can take your NEG and shove it.

    During the February 2017 heatwave across south eastern Australia, 3,600 MW failed during critical peak demand periods in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland as a result of faults, largely related to the heat. This is equivalent to 11% of the total capacity of the coal and gas power plants in those states.


    There are a range of non-fossil flexible dispatchable energy technologies that do not suffer the reliability issues of coal and gas power plants. These include concentrated solar thermal with storage (CST), pumped hydro with energy storage (PHES), batteries and demand response These technologies are already competitive with, or cheaper than, coal, gas and diesel, and are rapidly reducing in cost as coal and gas costs increase.

  22. Peter Hartcher speculates on Dutton’s long term prospects…

    “He’s not impatient for the leadership and he’s realistic enough to see that he is unpopular with the people. He knows that he has to change his image. That will take time. At 47, he has plenty of it.

    But while he’s working for the success of the Turnbull government, he, like all of his colleagues, has thought about the party’s options if it can’t be salvaged. He’s given colleagues the idea that, in the face of inevitable defeat at the next election in the next year to 18 months, he’d hope for a gracious Turnbull resignation. This would open the way to an “easy handover” of the leadership.”

    Funny Hartcher doesnt seem to consider the obvious point that Dutton will very likely lose his seat at the next election.

  23. BK

    Not often I agree with Coorey!

    Phil Coorey on how the Nats have visited ruin on Turnbull yet again. He concludes with “Joyce will once more be the member for New England but he will be lucky to be able to control his own party, let alone help Turnbull and the Coalition.”

  24. IoM

    I wonder what huge thing he wants to try and avoid being charged with though. Treason?

    I guess so but that might be stretching.

    However the actual charge is described I heard earlier that he could get up to five years for lying to the FBI (the thing he pleaded guilty to earlier today).

  25. Well, the time of my life when I experienced the LEAST sexism was when I lived at Queen’s College in Melbourne in the late 70s.

    I also felt utterly safe there, despite girls being about a quarter of the residents.

    In fact, the guys there were very protective – Term 3 (as it was then) was notorious for random attacks on women in the area, and the guys at College would always stress to us that it wasn’t safe to go out alone and offer to escort us at any time.

    (I still knicked down to Twinnies late at night for a souv…)

    I was in far more danger of being groped when I went home and mixed with people from my mother’s church…

  26. Perfect summary

    John Schindler
    John Schindler
    Team Trump is a collection of malignant narcissists who will now sell each other out like crack whores.

  27. IoM – That’s probably it.

    As I expect you know Mueller will do the usual and stick them with virtually anything at the start and escalate as he feels fit later.

  28. IoM

    My guess is his dealings with Turkey.

    Flynn faces possible fraud and money-laundering charges for failing to disclose a payment of $530,000 from the Turkish government. (The Foreign Agent Registration Act, FARA, requires disclosure of work for foreign governments, including details about compensation.) Flynn could also face conspiracy and kidnapping charges for allegedly negotiating a payment of $15 million to deliver to Turkey Fethullah Gülen, an Islamic cleric and political foe of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

  29. sonar says: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 8:10 am

    The news that Flynn has flipped can only mean one thing………….

    Donald Trump is going to jail….!


    Ex NSA John Schindler predicted many months ago that he will die penniless in a jail cell …..

    US intel community ‘ready to go nuclear’ against Donald Trump over Russia ties, claims former NSA analyst

    US President ‘will die in jail,’ says former National Security Agency employee, John Schindler – |Friday 17 February 2017 18:58 GMT|

  30. Rain now steady in Canberra. We’ve just past the 26mm mark since 6pm yesterday.

    No smash down rain and I hope it stays that way.

    And I’ve just realised I’ve not put my rain gauge back up after replacing the courtyard fence. Bugger!

  31. ides Of March

    Joy Behar is anti Trump through and through!

    It is good to see that things are progressing. For me it feels like it is taking forever. Remember I naively believed that Trump would not even get to inauguration. Yet here we are Nearly a year later…….

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