BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

There were three new polls this week, from Essential Research, YouGov and ReachTEL, but I’m lacking a complete set of results for the latter, and am thus able to include only the first two in the weekly update of BludgerTrack. This is a bit unfortunate, as ReachTEL would have leavened the effects of two bad results for the Coalition. As a result, BludgerTrack records a lurch to Labor this week that may not be replicated next week, unless Newspoll is also bad for the Coalition (which, of course, it may very well be). Labor’s three gains on the seat projection consist of one each from Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Nothing new on leadership ratings. As always, see the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  1. Ides of March

    The potential prison time for ” fraud and money-laundering” and ” conspiracy and kidnapping” charges would be a whole heap more than lying to the FBI. Which would you chose ?

  2. CNN must have got the message that much of their coverage of this investigation and of rumours around it have been totally over the top until recently. Some days it’s had wall-to-wall ‘panel’ shows with a presenter and 5 guests who all yell over the top of each other hysterically.

    Very measured however now with their broadcast – sane people on and making sure they get the actual facts hammered down before any discussion of the possible next steps.

  3. JBishop and those very expensive earrings:

    What is going on ear, Julie?
    ‘LIBERAL ENTITLEMENT’ FOREIGN Minister Julie Bishop has become the unofficial ambassador of a luxury jewellery company owned by a Liberal donor without having to declare up to $200,000 worth of jewels she has worn to various public events.
    (DT headline)

  4. The rain actually looks to be clearing Melboune, with the action now mostly further East. Melbourne has had about 20mm since yesterday, an amount we’d hardly notice in Sydney. Other centres have had much more, with widespread falls of 100mm+ in the North East, especially the Alpine areas. Wangaratta got 56mm, Shepparton 60 (Zoomster?).

  5. Steve777

    Major flood warnings all around us, which – if they eventuate – will certainly mean we get cut off from basically everywhere.

    Atm, river’s up but still within its banks, and outside things are getting a bit soggy.

  6. Lovey – Yesterday I heard or read one financial commentator say that they could not find even one reputable economist who would say that the Republican’s tax package would help the US economy.

    All they’d say is that it will destroy the budget.

  7. Yep, amazing how economically responsible big businesses insist governments should be…but they’ll lobby for a tax cut whilst complaining about government debt.

  8. CTar1

    Estimates are the tax cuts will add a lazy US$1 Trillion debt over the decade . The oligarchs will appreciate the money though.

  9. EDIT: best wishes Zoomster. Stay safe.

    All that rain falling in the mountains in Victoria’s NE will be rushing down creeks and rivers.

    Canberra’s being drenched now. It’s warm, cloudy and humid in Sydney. The rain will arrive here later, although just normal rain.

  10. KayJay thank you for your good wishes yesterday, but so far they have been wasted. Nothing much happening here in Melbourne except lots of drizzle and a bit of rain. (15mm in the gauge yesterday).

    The TV news are pathetically showing drains with a little water running in the bottom of them.

    I know you are interested in matters grass and mowing so you will be pleased to hear the grass is growing as I am looking at it and when this is over, the mower will get a real workout.

  11. @CTar1…our group….France,Denmark,Peru…..not a group of death but tough nevertheless.

    ….on the football forum I post on quite a few fans from those countries have signed up and started some very funny discussions….

  12. CTar1 says:

    It’s amazing that the Administration thinks they can do this military buildup while cutting the budget.

    They use the Hockeynomics text book. That magical world where the government can reduce its income,spend more and miraculously reduce the deficit.

  13. So we have New England today – will Barnaby cop a swing against? Or will those country types give him a resounding cuddle? Media seems to be certain of a big cuddle. I find the man a deplorable politician, despite the media’s accolades that he’s ‘the best retail politician’ there is.

    On a brighter note: Trump looks doomed.

  14. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    This snippet of information from Hartcher’s article is interesting:

    When Morrison tries to cheer his demoralised colleagues, he doesn’t sketch a brilliant winning Turnbull strategy but tells them: “Don’t give up. While there’s Shorten, there’s hope.” Even at the top levels of the government there’s hope beyond experience that Turnbull can turn things around.

    It says just how delusional the Liberals in their bubble bunker are.

    1. They have not yet grokked that Bill Shorten has sliced and diced both Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull.

    2. A Royal Commission into Bill Shorten left egg on the faces of the Liberal Party, not Bill.

    3. Speaking of Royal Commissions, Bill just got one from Opposition into the Banks, which the next Opposition, the Coalition, will not be able to stymie or criticise because they set it up!

    4. ‘Kill Bill’ is going to be the strategy for the Coalition going forward to the election. That’s worked so well for them thus far, eh?

    5. If some in the Coalition, like Morrison and Bishop, believe Turnbull can turn things around, how long will others who don’t believe this continue to support a listing ship?

  15. jenauthor says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:10 am
    So we have New England today – will Barnaby cop a swing against?

    We can but hope, but it seems unlikely that any swing would be enough to unseat him. I have come to realise that this electorate is like no other.

    I am reminded of all the research that says that concrete evidence to the contrary for those who ‘truly believe’ is counter productive, and merely affirms their belief in a false reality.

  16. Checked the rain gauge at 9 am: 29mm . Luckily the downpour has been steady rather than in stormy dumps, so all my drainage system is holding up well and of course the dam is full. 🙂

  17. PeeBee (Block)
    Saturday, December 2nd, 2017 – 9:05 am
    Comment #72

    We, Newcastle residents, are expecting (more like hoping for) rain later today. What passes for my garden is very dry; so dry that if, in the event of an emergency, I needed to bury a body, I would have to hire a little digger digger.

    Note 1. I don’t have any bodies that require burying.

    Note 2. A digger digger, for the uninitiated, is one of them there big machines the council use to digger digger earth and concrete. So named by a grandson many years ago.

    Be good to yourself. 😍

  18. Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    ATTENTION TRUMPOPHILES: They’ve uncovered the radical manifesto behind today’s “Deep-State” attack on the Trump Admin.

    It’s called the “United States Constitution.”

  19. Zoomster
    About 15-20 years prior to your time, I was a freshman at Newman. During initiation, we were exhorted to “Stay away from Queens”. We were also told “freshmen have no rights whatsoever: freshmen are turds”


    Adani is accused of discreetly paying thousands of dollars to recruit people to vote on a crucial mining deal with traditional owners, including Aboriginal people with no link to its Queensland mine site.

    The claims are made in sworn statements filed in the Federal Court, ahead of a trial in March to decide whether the meeting legitimately endorsed the Adani deal, which has bitterly divided the W&J


    As the humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen spirals out of control – in part a consequence of Australia’s support for a Saudi-led siege on the country – it is worth cataloguing the government’s lies about why it won’t disclose military exports to Saudi Arabia.

    To their credit, the Greens are continuing to oppose the war and calling for answers about our war on Yemen. On Monday, Senator Peter Whish-Wilson urged the government to disclose all documents relating to the joint training exercise between the Australian and Saudi Arabian navies.

    The Saudi navy is currently enforcing a naval blockade on Yemen. The training exercise was exposed in a report on ABC by the outstanding correspondent, Sophie McNeill.

    Greens Senators have also repeatedly spoken out in the Senate against Australian military cooperation with Saudi Arabia.

  22. Boerwar @ #67 Saturday, December 2nd, 2017 – 8:55 am

    $1 trillion stacked in a single stack is over 100,000 kilometers high.

    I must inform my son-in law. Couple of these stacks, end on end, would reach the moon.

    The gentleman of steam powered rocket and flat earth fame, together with my son-in-law and many other moon landing conspiracy believers could then climb the stairway to heaven and find the already existing boot and vehicle tracks.

    I suggest we club together to fund such an expedition. I could act as treasurer with Head Office located in the Cook Islands or other suitable area.

    Donate now ❗

  23. What makes Barnaby imagine he had a “tough campaign”? One megaphone and a bullet in the mail?

    Ingrid ️‍‏ @iMusing · 2h2 hours ago

    A month-long pub crawl during which most media merely broadcast rather than question what the candidate says is hardly a tough campaign

  24. poroti says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:32 am

    A tax payer funded ‘pub crawl’ to boot. It ain’t easy for Barnyard

    Looks like it was also a pub crawl for the travelling media types – most photos of Barnaby seem to show him holding up the bar. And when they were not imbibing, the only people they met seemed to be Barnaby supporters.

  25. Been catching up on the latest developments in the Trump/Flynn/Russia saga this morning. While its certainly very worrying for Trump, I think the gleeful predictions that he’s going to be sitting in a jail cell soon are a bit premature. It would be beautiful if it did happen, but I still feel like he’s probably going to manage to hang on until he’s finally kicked out of office in an almighty landslide in 2020. People like Trump have an amazing talent for avoiding the consequences of their actions.

  26. Morning all.

    Lots of speculation as to who is next after Flynn.

    Lest there be any doubt about what is happening, the statement of the offense filed along with Mr. Flynn’s plea shows that he is prepared to testify that the communications that he lied about, concerning conversations with the Russian ambassador in December 2016, were discussed with multiple members of the transition team — including one “senior official” and one “very senior member.” It is not yet clear who those individuals are, but transition officials and members included Jared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr. as well as Vice President Mike Pence, Representative Devin Nunes of California; the former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

    It is probably Mr. Kushner who is in greatest jeopardy now. Bloomberg has reported that he is the very senior transition member who directed Mr. Flynn to reach out to Russia. Mr. Kushner has already been questioned by the special counsel and by Congress. If he was one of those officials Mr. Flynn spoke to and he was not honest about it when questioned, he could face similar false statement charges.

  27. Morning all. On the bludgertrack result for this thread (ALP 54.4) considering the careful design of bludgertrack to damp the effect of one off polls, that really is an awful result for Turnbull and the Libs. What is the record high/low?

    If the bludgertrack is correct, Bumpkinvale may be out of reach, but Bennelong should be winnable. Will Turnbull survive if it is lost?

  28. “People like Trump have an amazing talent for avoiding the consequences of their actions”

    If things get really hot for him, he’ll do a deal involving immunity for himself and his immediate family and betrayals of close allies and associates. He’ll retire from office for ‘health reasons’, declaring victory and the most brilliant Presidency since (and including) that of George Washington and quietly resume being a full time con artist.

  29. From the Peter Fitz. article the very good words of a Barmy Army song, coming to a cricket ground near you.
    The Aussies love the English, you might find it quite strange

    ‘Cos we sent them all down under, with only balls and chains

    And when they see the English, they always shout and scream

    But when they had the chance to vote they voted for the Queen!

    God save YOUR gracious Queen

    Long live YOUR noble Queen

    God save YOUR Queen

    Send her victorious

    Happy and Glorious

    Long to reign over YOU

    God save YOUR Queen.

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