ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission, but stable voting intention in the latest ReachTEL.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News has Labor leading 53-47, unchanged from the last such poll on October 25. However, rounding would have had to have worked pretty hard to prevent Labor gaining a point: the primaries have the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor up one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, and One Nation steady on 9%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead in the forced response two-party preferred question is 52-48, compared with 51-49 last time. Also featured: 69% support for a banking royal commission, with 12% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. GT

    Leak investigations go nowhere. You dont want to admit you know who the leaker was (staffer, politician). The Cash AWU affair is a case in point.

  2. guytaur @ #98 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 6:15 pm

    The latest drop on Sam Dastyari breaking news reminds me of Wikileaks leaking Clinton emails. Secret recordings Senator Dastyari conversation

    He is gone

    I expect him to resign now.

    My question is who is breaching listening devices act to leak the recording to the ABC

    Shorten should have demanded his resignation today.

    This goes to the leaders’ lack of standards.

  4. Putting two and two together it appears the inquiry into the baking industry is a front for Ruddock’s religious freedom inquiry,and bakers having their religious freedom oppressed.

    ‘Too big to fail ‘ clearly refers to over-large wedding cakes with 7 or more tiers.

    The examination of the four pillars policy will also look at wedding cakes and examine the number of pillars supporting each cake tier.

    Three pillars may comprise a ‘trinity’, but it is clearly insufficient.

  5. The most concerning paragraph in the latest Fairfax bash of Dastyari:

    “Fairfax Media has confirmed that intelligence collected by national security officials corroborates that Senator Dastyari planned to make the comments before he delivered them, and had told Mr Huang of his intentions – things the senator has denied.”

    If that does not send shivers down the spine of anyone concerned with abuse of information collected for national security purposes, what would?

    Rex???

  6. Boerwar,
    What cash for which comments?

    South China Sea?

    If so, what say you about Andrew Robb signing a FTA with China which benefited them economically and allows them to import Workers for their projects into Australia, after which he was rewarded with a job for the boy?

    That okay because he is no longer in parliament?

  7. John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950 · 27m27 minutes ago

    Dear RWNJs, you cannot call for Dastyari’s sacking without doing the same for @stuartrobertmp or @TonyAbbottMHR for even worse misdemeanors #auspol

    Remember the watches from the Chinese businessman to Liberal MPs?

  9. “Breaking News”:

    The ABC has secret audio of Sam Dastyari defending China’s South China Sea stance, in defiance of ALP policy

    Question for ABC – How long have they (or their source) had this audio, and why release it precisely now? Good way to cover for Marriage Equality being stuck now because Turnbull shut down Parliament, or is Newspoll about to start polling, or both?

  10. I heard on the radio when I was out that Bill Shorten has told Sam Dastyari today, 3rd strike and you’re out!

    So, is this new information re the South China Sea comments, that 3rd strike?

  11. lizzie @ #107 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 6:23 pm

    John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950 · 27m27 minutes ago

    Dear RWNJs, you cannot call for Dastyari’s sacking without doing the same for @stuartrobertmp or @TonyAbbottMHR for even worse misdemeanors #auspol

    Remember the watches from the Chinese businessman to Liberal MPs?

    We need a federal ICAC… with teeth ! …not a Lib/Lab concoction that has no real powers

  12. Rex.

    There is no choice for Labor now Dastyari has to go.

    My question is are we seeing Trump style campaign leaks.

    Someone is breaking National Security laws in leaking them.

    This is as bad as the raid on Conroy’s Office in political interference.

  13. Ewart Dave ‏ @davidbewart · 4h4 hours ago

    Glorious julie taking a swipe at dastyari. I wonder why a chinese tycoon paid $40K to eat with turnbull. She never mentioned that

  16. Good evening all,

    Rightly or not Sam Daystari had to stand down for the good of the party.

    His future political career ? Up to others to decide.

    I offered the opinion earlier that it would be interesting to see if there was a follow up to the story today.

    I have been answered.

    Cheers.

    Cheers.

  17. But what he said does not seem that “explosive”. “Australia should know when, and when not to..” is pretty general, I reckon other politicians speaking at similar functions with Chinese have made similar statements.

  21. Lovey

    It does not matter.

    Dastyari will have to resign.

    Labor has two options.

    Ask about the security implications of the leak given what we know the US intelligence agencies warned of?

    Also go hard on Foreign Donation Reform.

  23. I am a strong supporter of Sam Daystari.

    This is a coordinated attack on him and labor, that is clear.

    Saying that, I would not be surprised if there was more to come, innocuous or not. It will suck up the oxygen in general from any labor positives and the media will now hunt as a pack. It is a labor senator you know

    For the good of labor Sam may accept he should stand down and once again to the back bench he should go. Anything more than that I leave to others.

    Cheers.

  26. It’s rehashing the same information we already had on that press conference. Dastyari said stupid things, which we already knew.

    There is a line somewhere in there that Dastyari subsequently downplayed how spontaneous the comments were. Meh.

    Personally I don’t see that we have learned anything new – Dastyari was an idiot in commenting on the South China Sea, and he was an even bigger idiot in getting his bills paid. If he should pay a price in all of this, it should be for those idiocies, and obviously he should have paid that price at the time (and of course he did get demoted).

    However, the current coordinated frenzied attack, reframing what happened at the time to get another go around to make it seem like there are new allegations … they’ll probably get their scalp. Bravo. *golf clap* I’m not so enamoured of Dastyari as to find that too upsetting, although he does have a certain charisma and style that could have been useful to the ALP.

    Plus the question of what ‘sacking’ Dastyari – a Senator – means. I guess if he falls on his sword and resigns his seat that’s a resolution, but that’s not within Shorten’s power to ask. Officially.

  30. Quentin Dempster‏Verified account @QuentinDempster · 5m5 minutes ago

    Dastyari national security affair now highly pertinent in December 16 Bennelong by-election where Chinese community there may hold key to the outcome.@KKeneally @billshortenmp @TurnbullMalcolm

  33. We’ve learned quite a lot about people who are happy to be played by a MSM who haven’t really even bothered with an intelligent consistent, principal and rule based attack. All it takes, it seems, for many is some ‘naughty sam’ smear.

    So lets go over this. He didn’t break the rules, and the rules haven’t been changed so he’d be NOT breaking them if he did it all over again. He came out himself and said the rules should be prospectively tightened and the media pretty much blasted him for trying to look good, while all but glossing over the actual substance.

    Now he has avoided a listening device that he wasn’t a party to having present in the first place, as if there is some obligation to make sure you hold all your conversations near to a likely listening device.

    He isn’t the brightest tool in the ALP shed but he is light years smarter than anyone falling for this crock (and I include Bill Shorten in that, if he doesn’t fight this the media literally can take any of his future front bench down when they are obeying the rules, with a concerted repeat attack, even where it has no substance).

  34. The ABC has secret audio of Sam Dastyari defending China’s South China Sea stance, in defiance of ALP policy

    This was aired about a year ago IIRC – or maybe this is an additional incident ?

    From September last year –

    And we revealed that, at a dinner with Mr Huang, Labor senator Sam Dastyari had pledged to respect China’s claims on the South China Sea and called for Australia to drop its opposition to China’s claimed air rights over contest islands. This came after another Chinese donor paid $1670 of Senator Dastyari’s outstanding travel bills. A day after an international law of the sea ruling against Beijing’s South China Sea claims, China’s Communist Party newspaper singled out Senator Dastyari as one of the country’s key foreign supporters.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/opinion/editorials/chinas-influence-must-be-watched-20160901-gr6r5d#ixzz4znyAzmZx

    I’m not a fan of Dastyari – but wonder if today’s ‘revelations’ are a rehash ?

    I recall a video etc was in the news back then as well.

  35. There is no choice for Labor now Dastyari has to go.

    And so sayeth the avenging God of Guytaur, judger of all morality, near and far.

    Got any “questions that must be answered” GT? I’m sure Sam is waiting breathlessly by the phone.

  38. dave

    I saw the report with the audio on channel 9 news. It felt like old news to me too. Not sure what has changed. Although, team Labor have expressed their discontent

  39. Doyley

    I am not a strong Dastyari supporter. He was rightly punished at the time.

    Polititically I think Shorten has no choice but to have Dastyari resjign. It will be Thomnson all over again. If he doesn’t

    Thats why I think focus on the National Security breach.

    It was only yesterday the Ombudsman said in report AFP needed training on the law.

    That and go real hard on foreign donations.

  41. Old news re Dasher- exactly like the Clinton emails- I’m surprised how many bludgers are falling for the Drama not the substance of the matter.!! Its purely to swing Bennelong conservative Chinese and Korean voters – and it may yet backfire on Turnbull with the many pics of Alexander, Bishop and Turnbull with Huang.

  43. All this is a rehashed story from September last year.
    Hardly anything new.
    Dastyari doesn’t have to resign. Neither should he be obliged to kowtow to this BS. This is a co-ordinated attack by the Liberals in conjunction with their mates in the media to save Bennelong and by extension Turnbull.
    You all know it too.
    He won’t go, they’ll still lose Bennelong and next year the next federal poll.

  45. BB

    I am not judging Dastyari morally. He did his punishment at the time.

    Media is spinning story. I am talking only on the politics.

    The media is already parroting the Last chance line from Mr Shorten’s last media statement.

    I hope the obvious attack fails.

    I did mention this reminds me of the leaks of Clinton emails during US election for a reason. Its an obvious hatchet job

    The thing in common.

    Secret information leaked for political purpose.

    So go away with your spurious bullying

  47. My one thought in all this Dastyari stuff is;

    Where are the federal police and the security agencies in all this?

    Some of the leaks may have security sources.

    If there is evidence of wrong doing then charges should be laid and he should be prosecuted with the full force of the law.

  48. If Dempster is right and the Chinese Australians are going to come out and vote based on anti Chinese Government sentiments, they are going to have to vote labor not withstanding Sam, the same clown has given massive amounts to the libs. I’m not sure the media haven’t been drinking from the same koolaid at Christmas parties, this is really dumb stuff, I’m astounded how many are falling for it.

    Also this is the same government that had a former and future deputy PM accept a $40,000 gift, on top of years of gifts and personal favours (like wedding in India) from a rich mining identity, just last week. Where not just one back bencher but the entire government policy is designed to aid these donors. Perhaps the Sam thing is appealing to deep racism, wtf else could it be.

    So the question is really what is this actually about, his tough stances against banks or taxpayers in senate committees? What else has he been up to? Has he upset the yanks in some way? Are in fact the Chinese upset that Labor isn’t delivering them the kind of ‘here have a strategic port for 99 years’ returns that their investments in the LNP are producing.

    I’m really struggling to understand how ANYONE is falling for this crap in this environment against the standards of this Government.

    It is helpful on the other hand it kinda explains how/why people on the left and right were happy to support a self confessed sexual predator, conman, repeat bankrupt, racist, over Hilary because while she didn’t break any rules and was way more qualified in EVERY single way, no one should ever have nominated her because she had emails.

    FMD.

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