ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission, but stable voting intention in the latest ReachTEL.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News has Labor leading 53-47, unchanged from the last such poll on October 25. However, rounding would have had to have worked pretty hard to prevent Labor gaining a point: the primaries have the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor up one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, and One Nation steady on 9%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead in the forced response two-party preferred question is 52-48, compared with 51-49 last time. Also featured: 69% support for a banking royal commission, with 12% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, November 29, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    I assume that it was NOT a Greens Party political hack who sent the bullet in the mail to Joyce but is a fake news disinformation act by an agent provocateur in the Nationals.

    Or maybe just a random environmentalist idiot.

    I hope the cops catch whomever and throw the book at him.

    The stalker, who is now being investigated by the AFP, does not seem to be a Greens Party Operative.

    However, Joyce IS blaming another candidate for the vandalism of his office.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-28/barnaby-joyce-campaign-headaches/9201638

    This by-election is not covering itself in glory, in terms of ethics.

  2. From the previous thread:

    I’m sure a solution to Stadium Australia could be developed without knocking the whole thing over. The SFS needs a refurb not a rebuild. The question is why the hurry?

    There are hundreds maybe a thousand or more demountables sitting in school playgrounds across the state.
    Presumably the profits to provide permanent solutions to these are inadequate for Gladys’ mates.

    It’s a bit like why the hell is Gladys rebuilding one of the least used if not the least used station on the metropolitan network instead of busy stations with a large number of low income, aged people and people with mobility issues? Guess whose party is benefiting?

  3. jenauthor @ #930 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 4:18 pm

    Ahh Rex you crack me up!

    Rex/Rex a damaging monotony …

    Why would Dastyari tip off the Chinese gentleman that our intelligence officials may be monitoring him ?

    Why is that acceptable behaviour ?

    Why is Turnbull dining with the same Chinese gentleman ?

    Why continue to vote for the questionable standards of the Lib/Lab duopoly ?

  4. Barney in Go Dau @ #2 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 4:23 pm

    Mr Newbie @ #926 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 12:16 pm

    Rex:

    Such a shame the Dean Smith bill continues to allow discrimination by religious practioners.

    Agreed.

    I disagree, in general the Smith bill allows religions to discriminate as they currently do for marriage.

    …and I think that goes against the ‘marriage equality’ meme.

    I voted yes to the survey question, which said nothing about religious practitioners being allowed to continue to discriminate based on sexual orientation. I voted yes to equality. Shame it hasn’t been delivered.

  5. You would have thought that Turnbull&Co would have given a nanosecond’s thought to who else Huang X. had ploughed money into.

    But they do have form shooting first and discovering unanswerable questions next.

  6. mh
    I was going to say that they had the horse’s head but were having difficulty finding the right…
    … but then I thought that might be a tad inappropriate so I digressed to the allusions in the SP.

  7. Back to Dastyari.

    If you are aiming to cause a stir or distraction by dropping a bucket on somebody you need to get the timing right.

    Leaking the Dastyari story the day before the ME vote and while the banking inquiry and the fallout from Queensland is bubbling along wouldn’t seem to have had the desired effect if a quick look at the major news sites is an indication.

    Very much down the page story now.

  8. ross,

    it’s probably down the page because the PMO are on the blower to their pet journos to drop it now Labor are pumping out all the photos and details of Mr Huang’s largesse to Libs.

  9. r.
    If PvO is correct the final ten sitting days were going to be a triumphant success leaving Santa with nothing in his bag for Shorten and the Mal’scontents.

    Part of the planning would have been to rummage through the dirt files.

    Cash was going to gut shorten with the raid thingy.

    Bishop and Brandis were going after Shorten by going after Dastyiari.

    Queensland was going to see a change of government and a Labor defeat.

    There was the grand NEG.

    There was the total tax triumph.

    There was the marriage equality personal triumph of the Empty Leather Jacket.

    But somehow it all turned to shit. Again.

  10. rossmcg @ #14 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 4:35 pm

    Back to Dastyari.

    If you are aiming to cause a stir or distraction by dropping a bucket on somebody you need to get the timing right.

    Leaking the Dastyari story the day before the ME vote and while the banking inquiry and the fallout from Queensland is bubbling along wouldn’t seem to have had the desired effect if a quick look at the major news sites is an indication.

    Very much down the page story now.

    So it’s a good outcome if Dastyari’s activities are dismissed …?

    What standards are we holding our MP’s to ?

  11. ratsak

    Yep. It is all going exactly to the Empty Leather Jacket’s Model Plan.

    1. Notice some tinder dry bush.
    2. Set it alight.
    3. Throw some petrol on the flames.
    4. Get caught by a sudden wind change.
    5. Run like buggery.
    6. Announce victory with a rictus grin.
    7. Have a major shitfight with your mates about who lit the effin fire.

  12. Have Waters and Ludlam paid back their ill-gotten salaries yet?
    Have they announced they will not be snouting the Super trough because the Super was obtained on the basis of a fraudulent misrepresentation?
    Have they handed themselves into the AFP for the crime of signing a false stat declaration?

    Yeah. Nah.

  13. Rex

    I indicated earlier that I am not a big fan of Senator Sam but that the latest allegations seem a little contrived.

    Anytime I hear a Tory frontbencher intone the magic words “Bill Shorten has questions to answer” my radar warns of a stitch up.

    But you of course would be most likely in 100 per cent agreement with them.

  14. “Dastayari needs to go. I also note he was absent for the final SSM vote. Shows how fickle his principles are.”
    I’m pretty sure Shorten would have told him not to turn up today and distract from the vote. Dasher is pro-SSM.

  15. I can see the argument but I really don’t like retrospective laws. If the donors were guaranteed anonymity when they donated, they should remain anonymous.

    “Children born from donated sperm would be able to trace the anonymous donors – without their consent – under changes flagged for the next sitting of State Parliament.
    Health Minister Peter Malinauskas concedes there will be ‘pockets of unease in the community’ about releasing identifying details of anonymous donors without their consent.”

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/new-laws-in-south-australia-would-allow-children-from-sperm-donors-to-identify-their-fathers/news-story/b585e19ef742faaf34abf2d8efb5d162

  16. caf @ Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 1:06 pm Comment #798 on previous thread

    doyley: In fact they are both responsible for security agencies. ASIS is under the Foreign Minister.

    I think the current somewhat informal arrangements are that –

    * Dutton now has ASIO, AFP, CRIMTRAC and several other small policing / security agencies that relate to domestic security i.e. similar to the UK Home Office. Brandis lost the argument and Turnbull gave Dutton his ‘super ministry’;

    * Bishop is responsible for ASIS (intelligence gathering / actions overseas; and

    * The relevant agency in regard to ‘signals’ intelligence is the Australian Signals Directorate (‘ASD’ formerly ‘DSD’) including phone ‘bugging’. This agency is under the formal ‘Administrative Arrangements’ the responsibility of the Minister for Defence.

    At the moment it’s fluid exactly who is the real ‘Minister for Defence’ – either Payne or Pyne but it seems that it depends on what the subject is or what locality particular announcements /decisions relate to. Who the Signals Directorate really answers to I don’t know but it’s unlikely to be Payne or Pyne but it’s possibly Dutton for ‘domestic’ activities and Bishop for activities overseas.

    Brandis is responsible for advising on the legality of all of their activities but I’d find it hard to imagine Dutton dropping in to see Brandis to ask him for his thoughts on anything.

    Turnbull runs a really tight ship …

  17. @ Rex Douglas…So it’s a good outcome if Dastyari’s activities are dismissed …?

    So, Rex ,let me get this right., you are saying that Sam Dastyari has been accused of criminal activity and should resign. ?
    Divulging Aust Govt secrets IS a criminal offence.
    So, basically you are saying the Aust Govt ( the LNP ) is letting a person who has allegedly commited a crime run around scott free.? A political opponent no less.They’re really kind to their political opponents aren’t they.?
    From where I am sitting there has been NO charges laid,NO arrest,NO court case,NO prison sentence. Innocent.
    Glad you’re not a judge mate.

  18. BW
    “Yep. I did not trust the ‘guaranteed’ anonymity at the time, so did not donate way back in the day.”
    It undermines the public’s confidence in government assurances changing the rules retrospectively. Is it any wonder the public is sceptical when we are told our privacy is guaranteed (and having a kid lob on your doorstep is not a trivial matter) and the government then turns around and says bad luck, we’ve changed our minds. Are they going to do the same with our census data? How can you trust them?

  19. Dio
    Yep. It is pervasive. In the past couple of months something like 60,000 individuals have had their personal particulars, banking details and the like hacked from Government-contracted sources.

  20. adrian @ #28 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 3:50 pm

    Aqualung @ #19 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    Cue Glover and Mark Kenny frothing at the mouth over Dastyari on ABC Sydney.

    Now that is a bloody surprise.

    Someone please tell me again what it is he was supposed to have done and how did they know that he did it?

    He told someone who was being wiretapped that they were being wiretapped…while being wiretapped?

    I assume people know he did it because they got the wiretap from whomever was actually supposed to keep track of it, decided it would be politically damaging to Labor/Dastyari, and then arranged to have it leaked to the media.

  21. I suspect it has started to dawn on the other side that this is going to be Godwin Grech on roids.

    So much Chinese money has sloshed to so many pollies that the panic stations have been manned.

  22. Boerwar @ #42 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 4:07 pm

    a
    He took free money for personal purposes.
    He should have been sacked on the spot.

    I thought that one was over and dealt with, already?

    And don’t political parties take free money for their own purposes all the time? Can we just sack all the politicians and start over with better finance/donations rules and brand new politicians?

  23. @adrian:Come on all you blathering bloviators:
    What is is it that SD is supposed to have done and how do they know that he has done it?

    It’s nothing more than an LNP distraction tactic. The Libs are losing, Turnbull is tanking, let’s go after the muslim in the ALP. Isn’t it interesting that on the day Dastyari became news, Cash has another person from her office leave.

  24. I would imagine that all significant Chinese business people in Australia (and around the world) would have their phones tapped as a matter of course.

    By Beijing at the very least, by their business competitors, and buy Japan and by someone or other in the Four Eyes Gang.

  25. @Boewar,He took free money for personal purposes.He should have been sacked on the spot.

    Yep, I agree. But it still doesn’t get away from the fact that he is being accused of a criminal offence. Why hasn’t the govt acted.?

  26. Rex Douglas @ #9 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 12:31 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 4:23 pm

    Mr Newbie @ #926 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 12:16 pm

    Rex:

    Such a shame the Dean Smith bill continues to allow discrimination by religious practioners.

    Agreed.

    I disagree, in general the Smith bill allows religions to discriminate as they currently do for marriage.

    …and I think that goes against the ‘marriage equality’ meme.

    I voted yes to the survey question, which said nothing about religious practitioners being allowed to continue to discriminate based on sexual orientation. I voted yes to equality. Shame it hasn’t been delivered.

    You responded to a question that asked if same sex couples should be able to marry.

    The natural assumption would be that if allowed it would be under the same conditions as current marriages.

    Current conditions allow religions to discriminate against those who wish to be married in many ways.

    So in allowing SSM under the current Marriage act religions would remain free to discriminate in what ever way they choose, this could include not marrying same sex couples when the legislation passes.

    To argue your position then you want LGBTI people to face less discrimination than what the current Marriage act allows.

    That goes beyond equality and creates a new inequality! 🙂

  27. Shows how much people pay attention or not.

    Shorten & Dastyari were at a funeral today.

    The confection of a story, supposedly known for over a year is pretty bloody silly.

    NOBODY knows what occurred in the meeting but it is typical that the conspiracy theorists come out of the woodwork. Dasher is, after all, ‘other’.

    The Libs need to neutralise Dastyari because he is effective on the banking stuff. They want to stop the RC momentum, something Dastyari has been vehement on.

    So there’s my conspiracy theory – one that has a little more foundation than the idiots from the news media are sitting on.

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