ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission, but stable voting intention in the latest ReachTEL.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News has Labor leading 53-47, unchanged from the last such poll on October 25. However, rounding would have had to have worked pretty hard to prevent Labor gaining a point: the primaries have the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor up one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, and One Nation steady on 9%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead in the forced response two-party preferred question is 52-48, compared with 51-49 last time. Also featured: 69% support for a banking royal commission, with 12% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. J S-J
    His take down of Fifield in QT yesterday was a classic/

    JS-J asked a question in relation to disability support.

    Fifield starts emoting about how..

    JS-J does a POO. Wtte: ‘I did not ask the Senator how he was feeling. I asked how the Government was proposing to act.’

  4. ‘sonar says:
    Wednesday, November 29, 2017 at 5:13 pm

    @Boewar,He took free money for personal purposes.He should have been sacked on the spot.

    Yep, I agree. But it still doesn’t get away from the fact that he is being accused of a criminal offence. Why hasn’t the govt acted.?’

    Excellent question. And one the are going to have difficulty with.

  5. Rex Douglas @ #22 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 4:45 pm

    jenauthor @ #21 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 4:44 pm

    Rex, the leaking of the story about Dastyari is very suspicious.

    I’m calling distraction.

    …and to the substance of the story… ?

    The substantial story is the apparent criminal disclosure of information gathered under national security powers for partisan political purposes.

    Rex, if that doesn’t worry you more than something Sam Dastyari allegedly said to a Chinese businessman a year ago that a half-wit could have worked out, then you are more hypocritical and narcissistic than Julian Assange.

  6. @Boewar,If Dastyiari advised a security target that his phone was being tapped then Dastyiari should go now.

    No, he should be charged with a criminal offence against the people of Aust. It is a CRIME to divulge security information to a foreign national.
    He did the deed or he didn’t. The gov’t can’t and wouldn’t fuck around if he was guilty. Especially the current mob in power.

  9. I haven’t looked into it too closely as I don’t jump at every edition of Libsmear. But isn’t the accusation that he told Huang that the gossip around Canberra was that Huang was being tapped?

    It might seem a minor quibble, but Dastyari would have no more chance of knowing if it was true than any of us. The security agencies or whoever don’t go around just mentioning in passing everyone they have under surveillance to back benchers. So the accusation is that Dasher has heard some gossip and passed on the gossip (which is kinda how gossip works) in the process of telling Mr Huang that it is not in his political interests to ever see him again.

    So the crime is a damp squib. You couldn’t even fine Dasher the $1000 bucks or so that the AWU would be up for if Shorten didn’t fill in the proper paperwork for the donations.

    BUT – if a guy as had a one on one conversation on a front lawn with another bloke how the fuck would anyone else know what they said? There was an expert lip reader just walking past on the day? Who just happened a year later to decide to inform the media?

    Yeah, nah. It can only have come from a security/law enforcement agency. Either directly or through the Liberal Party. Neither answer is good for the Libs. Watch this one die before too many people start putting two and two together.

  10. You’d think that any journalist with half a brain would have put two and two together already.

    Like most of the Liberal scams it makes absolutely no sense and would appeal only to the terminally gullible with an axe to grind. Rex Douglas anyone?

  11. Dastyari was not in a position to have information that he was supposed to keep schtum about.

    What he did have (according to him) was gossip from journalists.

    Talking about suspicions one might have is an entirely different kettle of fish to disclosing something that one has been informed of and told to keep quiet about.

    As has been pointed out everyone can/should now basically assume that their mobile phones are reporting on them in some way, and isolating oneself from one’s phone is not an offence (yet!).

    If there is something of substance in this new round of accusations I haven’t seen it yet. I acknowledge that Dastyari’s initial financial arrangements were stupid in the extreme and showed very poor judgement – perhaps he should have been tarred forever for that, I’m not convinced either way. But this new ‘scandal’ seems like confected nonsense to me, and where the scandal really should be about who in the security services and/or government might have been disclosing information related to surveillance.

  12. I don’t think Turnbull would have wanted the Dasher thing to come out today. They finally have a good news day with SSM passing the Senate without a riot from the conservatives and he gets a chance to lap it up. There is some other agenda going on we don’t know about.

  13. Boerwar @ #52 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 5:16 pm

    If Dastyiari advised a security target that his phone was being tapped then Dastyiari should go now.

    Simple as that.

    I think that by the time Dastyari spoke to Huang everyone who had even slightly followed the story knew that Huang and a number of fellow Chinese business identities were of national security interest. Unless Dastyari had been specifically told by someone who knew (and that would include Shorten) that Huang or (more likely) Dastyari’s phone was bugged there is nothing here at all.

    In any case, surely the time for Dastyari to go, if any, was when the event allegedly occurred which was, presumably, when the intelligence or other relevant authorities became aware.

    Too many people here are falling into the Government’s sleazy plan because they just don’t like Sam. The big question, by far, with the biggest implications for all of us, is whether information apparently gathered under extraordinary powers for the national security is being used for petty political purposes.

  14. Bill Shorten has regular meetings and receives regular briefings from Australian security/ spy agencies.

    In the last 12 months since Daystari was supposed to have engaged in a serious security breach not one security / spy agency saw fit to raise the issue with labor opposition leader Bill Shorten.

    If there was a issue then Shorten would have been told. Shorten has stated that nothing has been raised with him. Shorten is a pragmatic leader. He would not have sat on that information if provided to him.

    Everything so far is innuendo and speculation. If the government has evidence then it should be presented. Otherwise it is all bullshit.

    Brandis has to either piss or get off the pot.

    It will be interesting to see if there is a follow up tomorrow by Fairfax. The three journos have form re this method of operation.

    Cheers.

  15. Needling the Greens here is really a waste of time……..such easy targets and a bit like spanking Noddy.
    The real game is over there with this hopeless government and its equally disappointing and weak leader.
    The fact that Backdown Barney is currently out of the game, just adds to the air of Canberra being more like a circus than anything else at the moment. Where is the latter anyway?

  16. Dio
    Probably a cock up.
    Or maybe Dutton is setting him up for the high jump?
    As you say, who knows?
    If Turnbull did get $40,000 from Mr Huang Xi, then the real target here may be Turnbull.

  19. Shanners in the OZ today… feel the pain…

    ‘Senior ranks of the Coalition are seized with the belief voters are not going to change their mind about the Turnbull government and many now use the phrase of “looking to opposition” in regard to themselves or colleagues.

    Gripped by this realisation, Malcolm Turnbull and his ministers are publicly floating ideas such as tax cuts and a banking inquiry or privately contemplating a leadership change, an early election or bringing Tony Abbott back into cabinet.

    Yet in the midst of divisions and confusion over religious freedoms in same-sex marriage legislation, unsettling by-elections, cabinet rivalries and vacancies, despair after the Queensland state election, One Nation’s continuing lure to Coalition voters, destabilising leaks, the Prime Minister’s draining authority and the prospect of MPs crossing the floor to vote with Labor, there is no clear Coalition consensus or leadership.

    There is an air of despair and a fatal paralysis where doing nothing is becoming the default position.
    …’

  20. I put 2 and 2 together a few minutes after the article went up, and said so immediately on the previous thread.

    The Libs and CPG are cosy bedfellows, especially Massola, and the CPG are so transparently partisan only a fool could be taken in.

  21. From Elks in The Oz

    ‘Rockhampton Mayor Margaret Strelow has all but conceded defeat to Labor in the undecided Queensland Labor-held seat of Rockhampton.
    …’

  22. Boerwar @ #20 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 1:43 pm

    Have Waters and Ludlam paid back their ill-gotten salaries yet?
    Have they announced they will not be snouting the Super trough because the Super was obtained on the basis of a fraudulent misrepresentation?
    Have they handed themselves into the AFP for the crime of signing a false stat declaration?

    Yeah. Nah.

    I’ve emailed the following enquiry to my local Federal MP, Christian Porter (which I’m reposting from the other night):

    Dear Christian,

    I am emailing you about the current s.44 dual citizenship problems that are being faced by a number of parliamentarians.

    I would like you to explain to me why there have been no penalties for the Members of Parliament who have falsely signed the candidate nomination form, particularly given that the AEC nomination form for a Federal Election the form specifically draws attention to the requirements of s.44 before asking the candidate to declare that they are qualified to be elected as a Member of the House of Representatives.

    If any normal Australian were to have signed a false declaration on their Centrelink paperwork, or on their Income Tax Return, forms which are infinitely more complicated and onerous to complete than the nomination form for Parliament, resulting in them receiving a benefit of hundreds of thousands of dollars over a period of years then not only would they have to pay the money back, they’d very likely be facing serious criminal charges related to the false declaration. Having not read the form, failing to understand the requirements, not properly researching the matters covered in the paperwork and/or having a personal opinion that the law governing the requirements lacked merit would not be accepted as excuses by Centrelink or the ATO for signing a false declaration.

    I look forward to your explanation as to why the disqualified members of Parliament are not being pursued for the repayment of the salaries and other benefits they’ve received as a result of their false declarations, and to why they are not facing charges for making a false declaration.

  23. Personally I’d like there to be a public register a Minister of Religion must personally join before they are entitled to exclude themselves from providing a marriage ceremony for any couple (including what couples they will refuse the ceremony to). So I could make sure I never accidentally support them in anyway.

    But you’d have to be a pretty stupid to want to force a Minister to take centre stage on your wedding day, where that minister thinks you will burn in hell for ever and believes hateful and repugnant things about you . That is almost as dumb as the discriminatory Minister of hate.

  25. Boerwar @ #932 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 4:22 pm

    I assume that it was NOT a Greens Party political hack who sent the bullet in the mail to Joyce but is a fake news disinformation act by an agent provocateur in the Nationals.

    Or maybe just a random environmentalist idiot.

    I hope the cops catch whomever and throw the book at him.

    The stalker, who is now being investigated by the AFP, does not seem to be a Greens Party Operative.

    However, Joyce IS blaming another candidate for the vandalism of his office.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-28/barnaby-joyce-campaign-headaches/9201638

    This by election is not covering itself in glory, in terms of ethics.

    If the sender had any serious intentions the bullet would not have been sent by mail.
    The police should not waste much time on such idiotic pranks.

  26. Bw – Your ‘Heath Robinson’ suggestion spot on. The responsibility for DSD has been all over the place for decades. It very much depends on what the capacities of the Ministers for Foreign Affairs, Defence and the A-G from time to time are and what the relative operational priorities are at the time. Also who occupies the offices of Secretary of Defence (I imagine Dennis Richardson got a lot of say …) and to a smaller extent the Defence Dep Sec Strategic Policy. It’s one of those agencies that so many others depend on. There’s virtually no end of money that it probably couldn’t find a useful way to spend these days.

    On a different subject – neither of our senators seem to have voted on SSM!

  28. Catprog @ #26 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 1:48 pm

    Under what ground would their stat dec be a crime?

    The only rules I can find say it must be knowingly false not unintentional false.

    Most people are aware of their last couple of generations worth of family migration history and the AEC form specifically draws attention to the requirements of s.44.

    If you were to sign a false declaration when dealing with Centrelink or ATO paperwork and then hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of benefits, do you really think that claiming your mistake was unintentional would get you off having to repay the money or from facing criminal charges for welfare or tax fraud?

  29. ‘Gripped by this realisation, Malcolm Turnbull and his ministers are publicly floating ideas such as tax cuts and a banking inquiry or privately contemplating a leadership change, an early election or bringing Tony Abbott back into cabinet.’

    So Malcolm is sitting in cabinet and saying, “I know – let’s bring Tony back as leader…”

    Quite understandable, really.

  30. It is apparent that if the Fairfax story is correct then security information has been leaked to them.
    I have to admit I would like to see what happened if Sam flatly denied telling Huang they should leave their phones inside & talk outside or that his phone was bugged. Hard to see Fairfax proving otherwise without divulging security information and committing the crime they are insinuating Sam has committed.

    As for Sam he is still going to be an embarrassment for Labor for as long as they keep him around.

  31. “I don’t think Turnbull would have wanted the Dasher thing to come out today. They finally have a good news day with SSM passing the Senate without a riot from the conservatives and he gets a chance to lap it up. There is some other agenda going on we don’t know about.”

    There certainly is and it is hard to work out if it is a personal agenda of the hacks masquerading as journos, or someone using really really stupid and gullible people masquerading as journos.

  32. Diogenes @ #36 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 2:00 pm

    BW
    “Yep. I did not trust the ‘guaranteed’ anonymity at the time, so did not donate way back in the day.”
    It undermines the public’s confidence in government assurances changing the rules retrospectively. Is it any wonder the public is sceptical when we are told our privacy is guaranteed (and having a kid lob on your doorstep is not a trivial matter) and the government then turns around and says bad luck, we’ve changed our minds. Are they going to do the same with our census data? How can you trust them?

    For the reasons you’ve outlined above, and more, I’m opposed to legislation that takes retrospective effect.

  33. bemused @ #78 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 1:40 pm

    Boerwar @ #932 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 4:22 pm

    I assume that it was NOT a Greens Party political hack who sent the bullet in the mail to Joyce but is a fake news disinformation act by an agent provocateur in the Nationals.

    Or maybe just a random environmentalist idiot.

    I hope the cops catch whomever and throw the book at him.

    The stalker, who is now being investigated by the AFP, does not seem to be a Greens Party Operative.

    However, Joyce IS blaming another candidate for the vandalism of his office.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-28/barnaby-joyce-campaign-headaches/9201638

    This by election is not covering itself in glory, in terms of ethics.

    If the sender had any serious intentions the bullet would not have been sent by mail.
    The police should not waste much time on such idiotic pranks.

    I blame Malcolm.

    He’s getting a bit random in the way he’s firing “bullets” at the moment and see this as another example of his poor aim! 🙂

  35. “As for Sam he is still going to be an embarrassment for Labor for as long as they keep him around.”

    I used to think this, but now I think the concerted campaign is so focused and so unbalanced that it is the people falling for the campaign that should be embarrassed not Labor.

    You know little things like it is embarrassing for Sam to receive a donation that he declares properly, but everyone else could do it before and after, without any suggestion they have done anything wrong or that the rules should actually change. In fact when he came out and said the rules should change the same people who targeted him for not breaching the rules seemed then to target him for suggesting they should be tightened.

    Something is VERY wrong and it aint Sam.

  36. Fulvio Sammut @ #70 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 5:37 pm

    I put 2 and 2 together a few minutes after the article went up, and said so immediately on the previous thread.

    The Libs and CPG are cosy bedfellows, especially Massola, and the CPG are so transparently partisan only a fool could be taken in.

    Yes, unfortunately true.

    No doubt it will be featured heavily on PM tonight.

  40. grimace – Porter will probably refer your letter to the Special Minister of State. No doubt they’ll have an already drafted and settled response letter for this.

  41. This school halls malarky.

    97% of projects were found to be appropriate and useful. The bit that dragged was NSW but thats because Education NSW didnt have the appropriate ready to go templates and built halls with heaters in the Tweed and ones with A/C in Merimbula.

  43. As far as I can see, the facts of the Dasher matter are:

    1. Sam went to Huangs to tell him that he didn’t want to see or hear from him any more.
    2. While there, allegedly, as the spooks were watching and recording their conversation, Sam told Huang they should leave their phones inside as they might be used to remotely record their conversation.
    3. They had a conversation in the yard. Probably a bit of deep and meaningful that Sam didn’t want ANYONE listening to.
    4. Absolutely no national security information was passed from Sam to Huang. Bill Shorten has confirmed that.
    5. And so the problem is that, as far as I can make it out, Sam committed the grave sin of not allowing the Security Services to keep monitoring him and Huang and their conversation.

    So when did an attempt at a private conversation become illegal!?!

  46. Sussex St Labor has produced some absolute shockers. I suppose I shouldnt expect different from someone who as supposed to be in charge of that office.

  47. “The Libs and CPG are cosy bedfellows, especially Massola, and the CPG are so transparently partisan only a fool could be taken in”. Unfortunately the Guardian political journos can be added to this mob.

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