BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

One new poll and no change at all on the latest poll aggregate update.

Essential Research was the only new poll this week, and it has no bearing whatsoever on the voting intention numbers in BludgerTrack. However, there is a fair bit going on in the state breakdowns, with the Coalition losing a seat in New South Wales, but gaining one apiece in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 29 of 37
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  3. ‘Some actions can’t be forgiven’: Strategist says GOP will pay dearly for supporting Roy Moore

    Republican strategist Rick Wilson published a blistering essay at The Daily Beast on Sunday in which he said the GOP is committing an unforgivable sin by supporting “child-molesting, law-breaking, edge-case whackjob” Roy Moore.

    By signing off on the “grotesque” misdeeds of “Alabama’s Uncle Creepy,” Wilson said, “the Trump Administration sent a clear signal it’s perfectly happy with Moore’s history of serial child sexual assault as long as he’s a solid vote on their tax bill.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/some-actions-cant-be-forgiven-strategist-says-gop-will-pay-dearly-for-supporting-roy-moore/

    ALSO : Rick’s article in the Daily Beast :

    Roy Moore Is Deplorable, and Donald Trump Condoning His Sins Is Unforgivable

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/roy-moore-is-deplorable-and-donald-trump-condoning-his-sins-is-unforgivable

  5. @ adrian…”No, no and no.

    Their ‘flagship’ radio and TV current affairs programs (AM, PM, 7.30) and the news, virtually ignore the ALP, and when they are featured it’s usually in attack mode. AM has actually got worse in this regard, and I say for featured interviews with dear Sabra it’s probably 80/20 to the coalition if not more.”

    What nonsense. Firstly, as a seasoned and avid abc watcher and listener, the idea that it is hostile against labor compared to the coalition is certifiable rubbish (yet bizarrely, not an uncommon sentiment on this forum). Secondly, in regards to political reporting, what really matters and what the public should be most interested in is the actual laws and policy direction being pursued and passed by the government of the day. And for that, of course you have to dedicate more air time to probing and cross-examining government representatives. It doesn’t mean more air time = more favourable, it clearly isn’t for anyone who pays attention to the grilling interviews conducted across the board with government ministers. And of course the opposition should (and does) have the right of reply, but the very nature of opposition (ie not having the controls of government, nor the information and resources available to the government) will always mean that there will be less for reporters to probe and cross-examine them on.

    And besides, this tin-foil hat rant of yours just shows how short your memory is – as the exact same thing happened as is happening now when labor was in government – as it should be.

  6. Rex:
    (about BB)

    I think you’re just projecting.

    My immediate thought too. BB loves to lecture us on what we should be talking or not talking about.

  7. gt

    Ah I see another you must be being unreasonable asking for clarification because of one or two words person.

    How can I understand unless I get an answer?

    I’m glad you know what your question is ‘cos I’m stuffed if I know, so I’m not surprised that you’re having a problem getting an answer.

    I’ll think I go off now and volunteer for a colonoscopy or something similar.

  8. don @ #1406 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 2:19 pm

    Rex:
    (about BB)

    I think you’re just projecting.

    My immediate thought too. BB loves to lecture us on what we should be talking or not talking about.

    No, I don’t think so. You can talk about what you like. But not how you like. There are serial offenders here on PB that are extremely frustrating.

  9. BB

    If being in the moral fast lane is asking are you with Senator Leyenholm’s exemptions amendments to the ME bill I will happily plead guilty to that.

    Its very plain to me that commercial business has no business doing discrimination exempted under law. This is a simple moral position most in our society have taken called being treated equally under the law.

    This from a Senator who is hosting Milo Yianopolous in parliament.

  11. CT

    This was the post I specifically referred to in my post

    This is the guy hosting Milo Yianioupolous in Parliament

    sallyrugg: First amendment introduced to the SSM Smith bill is from David Leyonhjelm, who introduced a SSM bill himself in 2014. Check out who and what he thinks should be able to discriminate against LGBTIQ couples (and their friends?):

    (annotations mine, obviously) pic.twitter.com/n1SaSn2PHqJoshButler: Leyonhjelm wants people to be able to discriminate against same-sex engagement and anniversary events too twitter.com/sallyrugg/stat…

    This was in the quote as originally posted

  13. My parents, who live 10km’s east of the Perth CBD, recently upgraded from ASDL to FTTN. They have gone with iPrimus on a 25/5 connection. I did a speed test when I was at their place at about 9 on Sunday morning and the actual speed achieved was 23/5. They are light users of the internet and have not noticed any sort of reduction in the actual speed achieved.

  14. Has there been any seat level polling of Bennelong or New England released recently?

    Interesting to note that no internal polling has been leaked.

  15. “Has there been any seat level polling of Bennelong or New England released recently? ”
    I think Fairfax, News, the Guardian and the ABC don’t want the public to know that their ‘Everyone Loves Malcolm’ narrative is falling apart.

  16. Grimace

    Tks for that.

    Some men installed a big green box around the corner from my home last week, probably about 70m away from the Telstra pit outside my home as the copper cable runs.

    Hopefully being close to the node means I will get reasonable performance when the NBN actually comes.

  17. Rossmcg @ #1416 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 11:51 am

    Grimace

    Tks for that.

    Some men installed a big green box around the corner from my home last week, probably about 70m away from the Telstra pit outside my home as the copper cable runs.

    Hopefully being close to the node means I will get reasonable performance when the NBN actually comes.

    Try this website:

    NBN MTM Alpha: Unofficial Tech/Speed Estimates – http://nbnmtm.australiaeast.cloudapp.azure.com/

  18. “Couldn’t we just sell north Queensland to China? Solve a bunch of problems ”

    As a North Queenslander I would advise that my OH owns me so they would have to get her permission first. I may be convinced that the Chinese are better at running NQ than the current Federal Govt!

  19. Adrian @ #1405 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 2:19 pm

    @ adrian…”No, no and no.

    Their ‘flagship’ radio and TV current affairs programs (AM, PM, 7.30) and the news, virtually ignore the ALP, and when they are featured it’s usually in attack mode. AM has actually got worse in this regard, and I say for featured interviews with dear Sabra it’s probably 80/20 to the coalition if not more.”

    What nonsense. Firstly, as a seasoned and avid abc watcher and listener, the idea that it is hostile against labor compared to the coalition is certifiable rubbish (yet bizarrely, not an uncommon sentiment on this forum). Secondly, in regards to political reporting, what really matters and what the public should be most interested in is the actual laws and policy direction being pursued and passed by the government of the day. And for that, of course you have to dedicate more air time to probing and cross-examining government representatives. It doesn’t mean more air time = more favourable, it clearly isn’t for anyone who pays attention to the grilling interviews conducted across the board with government ministers. And of course the opposition should (and does) have the right of reply, but the very nature of opposition (ie not having the controls of government, nor the information and resources available to the government) will always mean that there will be less for reporters to probe and cross-examine them on.

    And besides, this tin-foil hat rant of yours just shows how short your memory is – as the exact same thing happened as is happening now when labor was in government – as it should be.

    Bullshit piled upon bullshit. ‘Opposition says….’

    And get your own moniker. Wouldn’t want anyone confusing you with me.

  20. alawriedejesus: “Marriage equality is about equality. Allowing refusal of service entrenches discrimination and prejudice, and undermines the whole point of having marriage equality.” #equalmeansequal #auspol theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

    If any more discrimination exemptions make their way into marriage equality legislation, that legislation should be voted down and we should start again.

    The bill introduced by Liberal senator Dean Smith already has more exemptions than most LGBTI Australians can tolerate. Anything more would make a joke of our collective effort to achieve full equality and would not be worth the right to marry.

    Let’s start with how unpopular the Smith bill is and why.

    Marriage equality: Coalition conservatives’ chances fade before Senate debate
    Read more
    A recent survey of 3,300 LGBTI Australians across all demographics showed around 70% opposition to those sections that allow discrimination by civil celebrants who nominate themselves as “religious” and by commercial services that are tied to religious organisations

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/27/the-smith-bill-is-flawed-as-it-is-lets-draw-the-line-at-any-further-exemptions?CMP=share_btn_tw

  21. I see that Christensen has expanded North Queensland far enough south to include the Isa and at least some extensive sections of still-living Great Barrier Reef.

    Even so, the majority of the coral along Christensen’s Queensland is dead.

    Christensen and Di Natale do have something in common after all.

  22. gt

    Trying to make out that its my fault for not understanding is a personal attack …

    You can take this as a personal attack – You’re a clown.

  23. Grimace, 9:00 Sunday evening (I am assuming it was evening) is hardly the best time to test. You should try 3:00pm to 10:00pm weekdays to see what speeds they get.

    Also getting a testimonial from ‘light users’ is not a ringing endorsement either. Ask a ‘heavy user’ or a person running a home business, that would be the real endorsement.

  24. CT

    Yeah that post was so unclear. That post by Sally Rugg and Josh Butler are as clear as mud.

    The only addition I made to it was pointing out that the particular Senator was hosting an alt right person in parliament.

    That really makes me a clown.

  26. Ah! I see we have both “adrian” and “Adrian” commenting on the same subject.

    Very confusing!

    To we have to call you Big-Adrian and Little-adrian now?

    Little “a” adrian, I thought I was going bonkers there for a while. I wondered whether the stress of listening to Sabby’s “Ask A Liberal” show every morning might have finally split you into two personalities that like arguing with each other about the ABC.

    Thank God I was wrong!

    You are of course correct. AM is unlistenable. No matter how bad the issue, Sabs always manages to get a Lib minister on to tell us how it’s all Bill Shorten’s fault and how much they love the leader.

    When it’s ScoMo he gives her extra time to do not only her nails, but her toenails as well. OK, so she has to clean off the flecks of spit from her glasses after a ScoMo session’s over, but it’s a small price to pay for that glamourous “Bachelorette” look.

    The version I listen to is the 6.05am “Early AM”, no worse in intensity, minute-by-minute, but over quickly since it’s only 10 minutes long. In any case, it’s 10 minutes less of Robbie Buck we have to experience. And if you’re real lucky, you might not get an “Ask A Liberal” session at all. Some of them only come onto the 8 o’clock session.

    Don’t let anyone else tell you that the Big Bra is running anything that even resembles an informative or newsworthy shop. She’s seen what sucking up to conservatives did for the stellar career of smoothie Mark Simkin. She’ll be hoping she can top that, I’d reckon.

    You are not imagining it.

  29. Bw

    I’ll take you’re advice. Meanwhile the nice lady at the hospital insisted I just have the required blood sample taken rather than a colonoscopy.

  31. I’ve been trying to remember back to state election defeats past.

    The question is this: Has there ever been a more unhinged and chaotic post-loss blame game?

  34. No one ever said that conservative thinkers are consistent.

    Dee Madigan‏Verified account @deemadigan · 40m40 minutes ago
    The party who insisted on an RC into unions is now saying RCs are expensive and ineffective.
    #hypocrites #senate

  35. Ct

    I then asked P1 if he was with the Senator or not. Such a clown I am.

    Actually asking for an opinion on a specific amendment to legislation.

    Such clownish behavior.

  36. Player One @ #1428 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 11:25 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1428 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 3:23 pm

    Player One @ #1299 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 7:57 am

    Ides of March @ #1228 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 10:36 am

    LGBTI people im sure dont want to be a political plaything and just want to get on with their lives.

    Oh, the irony!

    I fail to see any irony in this at all!

    And just how ironic is that? 🙂

    Would you care to explain?

  37. @ lizzie – in fairness, their RC was expensive and managed to destroy 0 Leaders of the Opposition.

    Very little value for money on display.

  38. On the question of weather a.k.a. global warming.

    Unless my memory is completely shot to pieces, I don’t recall day after day of “showers and storms” forecast in southern vic.

  42. Boerwar says: Monday, November 27, 2017 at 3:26 pm

    CTaR1
    Ex. Can you recall a more chaotic post-loss unhinging?

    *************************************************

    One that sticks with me Boerwar is that of Jeff Kennett – even after all these years , I get the impression that Kennett’s ego has NEVER accepted he got tossed out on his arse …..

    Kennett entered the 1999 election campaign with a seemingly unassailable lead, and most commentators and opinion polls agreed that the Coalition would win a third term.

    However, in a shock result, the Coalition suffered a 13-seat swing to Labor. While there was only a modest swing in eastern Melbourne, which has historically decided elections in Victoria, the Coalition suffered significant losses in regional centres such as Ballarat and Bendigo. ABC elections analyst Antony Green later said that when he first saw the results coming in, it looked so unusual that he thought “something was wrong with the computer.”

    ( ….. and I’ll treasure forever Lil’ Johnny losing his seat …. )

  44. lizzie @ #1436 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 3:28 pm

    No one ever said that conservative thinkers are consistent.

    Dee Madigan‏Verified account @deemadigan · 40m40 minutes ago
    The party who insisted on an RC into unions is now saying RCs are expensive and ineffective.
    #hypocrites #senate

    Yeah, like the Royal Commission into Institutional Child Sexual Abuse.

    Soooo ineffective and expensive. I guess it depends on how you define ‘ineffective’. Or, ‘expensive’. Like it’s just fine and dandy to give $1 Billion of taxpayers’ money to an Indian Mining Company which will send it’s profits offshore to the Caymans or Barbados, but we can’t afford a Royal Commission into the Neoliberal Banking Industry!?!

    bullshit!

  47. Bw – I watched only some of the ABC’s post vote coverage on Saturday night.

    All Canavan seemed to be saying was that the LNP would have won convincingly if Shorten had not talked people into voting for Labor.

    The LNP really should get Canavan out as their spokesman more often.

    He’s a really good example of what they’ve got to offer.

  48. pR
    My question was really about whether there had ever been so much finger pointing, blaming, blame shifting, argy bargy and the like.

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