BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

One new poll and no change at all on the latest poll aggregate update.

Essential Research was the only new poll this week, and it has no bearing whatsoever on the voting intention numbers in BludgerTrack. However, there is a fair bit going on in the state breakdowns, with the Coalition losing a seat in New South Wales, but gaining one apiece in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. There was a joint ABC/Fairfax investigation. It involved interviews with over 50 people. It has taken a long time. I doubt that the whole exercise was timed to suck oxygen from whatever happened to be the Coalition disaster du jour.

  2. Not that, if true he doesn’t deserve it, but it’s wall to wall, while the Qld results are like, move along, it’s only Qld after all.

  3. CT

    So come on tell me what is wrong with the post from Sally Rugg and Josh Butler and asking someone are they for or against?

    Whats not to understand as you put it about their writing? Sally Rugg is from GetUp! and Josh Butler writes for the Huffington Post.

  4. Thanks BB. I know that I am not imagining it, as any simple analysis of respective air time would prove.

    I remember Sabra when she and Trioli used to pontificate on politics in the Howard era. They seemed to be in a competition to see who could praise the great man the most.

    And I reckon it’s pretty poor blog behaviour to begin to use someone else’s monicker. Just causes needless confusion.

  5. lizzie

    Now that the Coalition has decided to completely subvert the $13 billion MDB Plan, there are no good solutions left. Only least worst ones. The pipeline will save a lot of evaporation. It also means that many places that are currently wet from time to time will become permanently dry.

    This is, I am afraid, exactly the sort of thing that happens when the Greens Party neuters the environmentalists’ votes by taking them out of political play.

  6. CTar1 says: Monday, November 27, 2017 at 3:41 pm

    The LNP really should get Canavan out as their spokesman more often.

    ********************************************************

    When I see Canavan ……. and our local MP Mr Slick, Darren Chester …… I think they both look more suited to selling used 4 wheel drives at Gippsland Motor Group outlets …….. they can certainly spout more lies and bullshit without batting an eyelid at the reality of their words

  7. C@tmomma @ #1447 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 11:41 am

    Fulvio Sammut @ #1442 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 3:36 pm

    Is Don Bourke the MSM’s sacrificial lamb of the day to avoid having to discuss Malcolm’s stuff ups de jure?

    Looks like it. I have personal knowledge of way worse behaviour in the media towards young, impressionable women.

    I see this like many recent historical issues that have come to light recently.

    Like institutions who thought it was acceptable to hide paedophilia within their ranks, our Society says this is not acceptable now and should not have been acceptable in the past.

  8. Perspicacious observation from bernard Keane(the polling in Bennelong must be diabolical):

    If you want an indication of how bad the Queensland result was for the federal Coalition, consider Malcolm Turnbull’s behaviour yesterday. Having finally made a much-delayed appearance in Bennelong, Turnbull accused Kristina Keneally of wanting to personally bring asylum seekers into the electorate and that her comments on the subject were being used by people smugglers in Indonesia to encourage the boats to start up again. And when asked about the fact that Antony Green had called the election for Annastacia Palaszczuk, the Prime Minister had a crack at the ABC. “How do all the other media organisations feel?” he asked. “Should they stop counting the votes now that the ABC has called it for the Labor Party?”

    Um, Sky News called a Labor win at 9.40 the previous night, PM.

  9. I can see why they considered the hottest 100 move, but ultimately feel like they erred.

    The Hottest 100 meant that for many Australians, the main point of the day was the music, instead of a day celebrating the brutal genocide of people and cultures that had existed for tens of thousands of years.

    Moving the hottest 100 will not move Australia day, it will just mean that Australia day is more about white nationalism and less about good music.

    I can’t see it as anything but a step backwards.

  10. Apparently a result of a JJJ audience survey

    JoshButler: Triple J asked fans what they thought about it being on January 26 – after 64,990 votes, 60% supported moving it pic.twitter.com/gCxFsrJelP


    Rob_Stott: Venn diagram of people who voted Yes and to change the date vs No /keep the date voters pic.twitter.com/TFqAHMdYuR

  11. Triple J’s Hottest 100 is moving to Sat 27 instead of Australia Day

    Cue virulent attacks on JJJ, the ABC generally and ‘political correctness’ by all the usual suspects.

  12. RAR.Australia‏
    @rar_australia

    Both Julie Bishop and Peter Dutton’s staffers tried to tell me that PNG was an independent country and refugees and refusal to allow MSF to see the refugees was PNG’s responsibility.

    Evacuate Manus Now‏ @SarahRubyWrites · 11m11 minutes ago
    That’s so odd, because the PNG Govt has given approval, it’s the Australian-contracted security turning doctors away at the gate.

  13. You can take this as a personal attack – You’re a clown.

    Ctar, you made a few snarky remarks the other day about my own stoush (for which I forgave you instantly, because you seem like a nice fella).

    But at least now you may have some understanding of what it’s like on the receiving end of the droning condescension, the patient lecturing, the claims that everyone else is wrong, all while you’re blinded by the DIY halo.

  14. All Canavan seemed to be saying was that the LNP would have won convincingly if Shorten had not talked people into voting for Labor.

    That darstardly Shorten, convincing people to vote for his own party!

  15. And I reckon it’s pretty poor blog behaviour to begin to use someone else’s monicker. Just causes needless confusion.

    Oh that’s easy, just end every post with ABC delenda est and we’ll know which A/adrian it is.

  16. PeeBee @ #1423 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 12:16 pm

    Grimace, 9:00 Sunday evening (I am assuming it was evening) is hardly the best time to test. You should try 3:00pm to 10:00pm weekdays to see what speeds they get.

    Also getting a testimonial from ‘light users’ is not a ringing endorsement either. Ask a ‘heavy user’ or a person running a home business, that would be the real endorsement.

    No it was morning, it was the only time I was able to do it. I know it’s not the best time to do it. Generally I’m at work 8 – 5 Monday to Friday, so don’t have time to be sitting around at my parents place doing speed tests.

  17. Player One @ #1452 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 11:44 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1443 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 3:37 pm

    Player One @ #1437 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 11:35 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1436 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 3:29 pm

    Would you care to explain?

    Ask guytaur. He believes he understood it 🙂

    It’s your post, where was the irony in the text you quoted?

    Given that there was only one sentence, it is kind of ironic that you apparently can’t spot it.

    So you’re suggesting that the LGBTI community turned their simple desire to be able to marry the person of their choice into all this conflation about religious freedom and exemptions.

    Bizarre!!

  18. BiGD,
    Let me tell you about one incident. The person in question is long dead now, so I feel as if I can put the story out into the public arena.

    When I was about 8 years old, my best friend at school was sexually assaulted by a famous Children’s Entertainer who lived in our suburb. She had been invited to visit him at his house as she was in the local singing and dancing groups, so had come to his attention. I can’t sing or dance for nuts, thankfully, so was spared by those old ‘Sliding Doors’.

    Anyway, I just remember going to her place after it happened and hearing her older brothers arguing with their parents about what to do. The brothers wanted to go and beat the crap out of this person, but their parents knew that the young girl would never be believed, and the boys would be the ones that would end up being charged by the Police with Assault. That’s the way it was in those days.

    Anyhow, before too long I lost my best friend. The family moved away from the area, to what seemed like the end of the earth at the time to Bundeena.

    My parents made sure I avoided the person like the plague.

  19. Fulvio Sammut @ #1440 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 12:36 pm

    Is Don Bourke the MSM’s sacrificial lamb of the day to avoid having to discuss Malcolm’s stuff ups de jour?

    Since Bourke was a 9 “personality” I’d expect 7 to either go at him hammer and tongs, or they’ll leave it alone entirely as it might remind people of the similar troubles in their own camp.

    As for the ABC, SBS and 10 – who knows.

  20. And when asked about the fact that Antony Green had called the election for Annastacia Palaszczuk, the Prime Minister had a crack at the ABC. “How do all the other media organisations feel?” he asked. “Should they stop counting the votes now that the ABC has called it for the Labor Party?”

    Um, Sky News called a Labor win at 9.40 the previous night, PM.

    Jeebus, did Turnbull seriously say that?

    He is losing the plot.

    And this is the guy who was boasting how great he is under pressure just a few weeks ago.

  21. Voice Endeavour @ #1463 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 11:53 am

    I can see why they considered the hottest 100 move, but ultimately feel like they erred.

    The Hottest 100 meant that for many Australians, the main point of the day was the music, instead of a day celebrating the brutal genocide of people and cultures that had existed for tens of thousands of years.

    Moving the hottest 100 will not move Australia day, it will just mean that Australia day is more about white nationalism and less about good music.

    I can’t see it as anything but a step backwards.

    But that’s one of the points.

    By having it on Australia Day it was providing a shield to those issues.

    Take away that hopefully will provide space for a more honest discussion.

  22. I havent caused another kerfuffle have I?

    Im in favour of the move. On Jan 26 they will only play Australian music and keep their partnership with AIME (musical charity for Indigenous Australians)

  23. Grimace, fair enough. I’m just pissed off that I will be getting a fifth of the download speed I am getting now for the same price I am paying for my HFC. Most of my neighbours are in the same boat and are holding off getting the NBN (except for one plonker who has opted for 12 Mbps….. I think it was just so he could have a landline).

    It is a scandal that the government spends $50b to provide a poorer service at greater cost.

  24. guytaur @ #1464 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 11:53 am

    Apparently a result of a JJJ audience survey

    JoshButler: Triple J asked fans what they thought about it being on January 26 – after 64,990 votes, 60% supported moving it pic.twitter.com/gCxFsrJelP

    ” rel=”nofollow”>
    Rob_Stott: Venn diagram of people who voted Yes and to change the date vs No /keep the date voters pic.twitter.com/TFqAHMdYuR

    Looks more like a pie chart to me! 🙂

  25. Re the ‘scandal’ about the England Wicket-keeper and the Australian Batsman:
    I have a friendly old male tom cat who greets me with a head-butt every morning!
    This is not to say the wicket-keeper is a friendly old tom cat, or even just a pussy

  26. Everyone seems to be missing the real issue on Don Burke saga.
    As objectionable as his behaviour was, it thrived in Channel 9s blokes celebrity culture.

    A culture that creates celebrities from obnoxious cricket & league / AFL players , all to boost their ratings.

    It goes all the way back to Kerry Packer & his pleasure flights to US casinos

    At least streaming services will see these old media empires to their graves along with the old white males that run them.

  27. Big D

    Yeah I agree. 🙂

    Arggh

    I stuffed that post up. Edited to read properly.

    Thats the Josh butler picture though not the rob stott one. 🙂

  28. I idea that the Don Burke story was dropped last night to draw attention from the Tories’ troubles is one of the better conspiracy theories I have heard.

    The next question will undoubtedly be how many labor figures figured in his “celebrity gardener” segments.

    Bill Shorten has questions to answer.

  29. Milo Yiannopoulos has declared that “feminism is cancer”. He was banned from Twitter for encouraging the sexist and racist abuse of Ghostbusters actor Leslie Jones. He is a leading proponent of the white nationalist “alt-right” movement, has advised neo-Nazi groups and has publicly suggested that sex with children can be OK (although he claims his comments were taken out of context). In the USA, this last revelation resulted in a cancellation of his book contract, the rescinding of an invitation to speak at the conservative CPAC conference and a resignation under pressure from his job as technology editor at the rightwing website, Breitbart.

    But he’s touring Australia and has been invited to speak at Parliament House.

    Bad things don’t vanish when you look away. Don’t ignore Milo Yiannopoulos
    Jeff Sparrow
    Jeff Sparrow Read more
    The invitation is from Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm – no doubt because in the flurry of dual citizenship scandals, no one’s bothered to pay him any attention for five entire minutes. Congratulations, David, you now have our attention – for providing a serious national political platform to a man who thinks Nazism is funny.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/27/milo-yiannopoulos-has-huge-support-in-australia-men-must-call-him-out?CMP=soc_568

  30. Barney in Go Dau @ #1475 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 4:00 pm

    So you’re suggesting that the LGBTI community turned their simple desire to be able to marry the person of their choice into all this conflation about religious freedom and exemptions.

    Bizarre!!

    As bizarre as assuming that I must either support same sex marriage or Milo Yiannopoulos?

    Now that’s bizarre. And, frankly, offensive.

  31. Player One @ #1498 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 12:30 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1475 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 4:00 pm

    So you’re suggesting that the LGBTI community turned their simple desire to be able to marry the person of their choice into all this conflation about religious freedom and exemptions.

    Bizarre!!

    As bizarre as assuming that I must either support same sex marriage or Milo Yiannopoulos?

    Now that’s bizarre. And, frankly, offensive.

    You have argued for a compromise position well short of ME here many times in the past, so that does put you in the same camp as those wishing for exemptions.

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