BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

One new poll and no change at all on the latest poll aggregate update.

Essential Research was the only new poll this week, and it has no bearing whatsoever on the voting intention numbers in BludgerTrack. However, there is a fair bit going on in the state breakdowns, with the Coalition losing a seat in New South Wales, but gaining one apiece in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 31 of 37
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  1. Player One @ #1500 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 12:43 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1499 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 4:36 pm

    Player One @ #1498 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 12:30 pm

    You have argued for a compromise position well short of ME here many times in the past, so that does put you in the same camp as those wishing for exemptions.

    Now you are being as stupid and offensive as guytaur.

    If you are offended then you only have your past arguments to blame.

    Maybe you are starting to realise how offensive those arguments were?

  2. Two Nationals backbenchers have no state that they WILL cross the floor to support some sort of inquiry into the banks. Christensen and O’Brien.

    It will now more likely happen than not.

  5. Asha Leu @ #1479 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 4:05 pm

    Jeebus, did Turnbull seriously say that?

    He is losing the plot.

    And this is the guy who was boasting how great he is under pressure just a few weeks ago.

    AL, no news but worth repeating, being good at something is self evident. Spruiking what you’re good at is actually broadcasting where you see your weaknesses. Trump is on the centre podium, but Malcolm is there for a medal. Cheer loudly for Straya, as the chimps beat their chests.

  6. ‘All Canavan seemed to be saying was that the LNP would have won convincingly if Shorten had not talked people into voting for Labor.’

    The simple answer to this was to have Turnbull out campaigning in every regional seat, I wonder why they didn’t? ≪ /rhetorical >

  7. I think another trip to the Snowy River is due, to ‘check on progress’ after all…. another Newspoll weekend is coming up.

  8. Asha Leu @ #1479 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 1:05 pm

    And when asked about the fact that Antony Green had called the election for Annastacia Palaszczuk, the Prime Minister had a crack at the ABC. “How do all the other media organisations feel?” he asked. “Should they stop counting the votes now that the ABC has called it for the Labor Party?”

    Um, Sky News called a Labor win at 9.40 the previous night, PM.

    Jeebus, did Turnbull seriously say that?

    He is losing the plot.

    And this is the guy who was boasting how great he is under pressure just a few weeks ago.

    Let that be a lesson for you, a person’s abilities deteriorate under extreme pressure, they never improve.

    I think the extreme pressure of the PM’s job, and politics more generally, is a big part of the explanation for some of the inexplicably stupid decisions that we’ve seen out of the PM’s office, going all the way back to Rudd.

  9. P1

    Fact:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/27/milo-yiannopoulos-has-huge-support-in-australia-men-must-call-him-out?CMP=soc_568

    If you support the Senator you are in the same camp. Now I do not think you support the Senator. However, I knew you argued some exemptions.

    Given this fact its only fair to ask you what your limits are?

    Like it or not the exemption crowd are in some very toxic company.

    I asked you in particular because I thought you had tried to be reasonable for the last few weeks even as I disagreed with you.

  10. He argued they had every right to speak their mind because there is a conscience vote on marriage and there is not a formal government position.

    And in that he is right. Well done. You couldn’t design a bigger fuck up if you gave it to a Nobel Laureate in Fuckups.

    But wait; there’s more. Let’s have TWO definitions of marriage. It’s like reverse barrier nursing where you don’t want to be infected.

    But the two senators have flagged they will introduce five other amendments, including having two definitions for marriage.

    They want to keep the definition of marriage as being between a man and a woman as well as having a separate definition that covers same-sex couples that says “marriage is the union of two people to the exclusion of all others”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/push-dropped-to-let-florists-and-bakers-discriminate-ssm/9197448

  11. @ adrian… “And I reckon it’s pretty poor blog behaviour to begin to use someone else’s monicker. Just causes needless confusion.”

    I agree – so when are you going to change it? ;). Funny you assume you were the first ‘adrian’ here. For the record I’ve been lurking here for quite some time without posting much.

    “I remember Sabra when she and Trioli used to pontificate on politics in the Howard era. They seemed to be in a competition to see who could praise the great man the most. ”

    Thats funny, my most vivid memory of that era was Trioli royally bitch slapping Peter Reith and exposing him as the liar he is for the children overboard scandal.

    Anyway, when you have the rightards screaming blue murder about how biased in favour of labor the ABC is, while at the same time the fine folk here whinging that labor is in bed with the liberals – I reckon its about all the proof I need that they are about right.

  12. P1 how would we even know whether your opinion is offensive or different to anyone’s, you are so guarded and coy in your avoidance of baldly expressing it.

  14. John Reidy @ #1507 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 4:55 pm

    I think another trip to the Snowy River is due, to ‘check on progress’ after all…. another Newspoll weekend is coming up.

    and see if there’s any sign of that jacket

    Michael Pascoe Retweeted Adam Gartrell
    Sic transit gloria Malcolm. Nothing left now, no legacy, no self-respect. Somewhere, an empty leather jacket.

  21. shiftaling @ #1512 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 5:04 pm

    P1 how would we even know whether your opinion is offensive or different to anyone’s, you are so guarded and coy in your avoidance of baldly expressing it.

    What nonsense. I have always been clear and forthright in my opinions here. I have just refused to engage in the ridiculous and toxic debate that goes on here when you dare to hold an opinion that some here think you have no “right” to hold.

    Today’s argy-bargy is a perfect example – guytaur got the wrong end of the stick (as he so often does) and made some offensive insinuations. BiGD then jumped in and essentially repeated them.

  22. Adrian @ #1511 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 5:02 pm

    @ adrian… “And I reckon it’s pretty poor blog behaviour to begin to use someone else’s monicker. Just causes needless confusion.”

    I agree – so when are you going to change it? ;). Funny you assume you were the first ‘adrian’ here. For the record I’ve been lurking here for quite some time without posting much.

    “I remember Sabra when she and Trioli used to pontificate on politics in the Howard era. They seemed to be in a competition to see who could praise the great man the most. ”

    Thats funny, my most vivid memory of that era was Trioli royally bitch slapping Peter Reith and exposing him as the liar he is for the children overboard scandal.

    Anyway, when you have the rightards screaming blue murder about how biased in favour of labor the ABC is, while at the same time the fine folk here whinging that labor is in bed with the liberals – I reckon its about all the proof I need that they are about right.

    Yeah, whatever…you sound pretty bemused.

  24. Ides of March @ #1520 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 5:14 pm

    Honest question.

    Do we have two adrians posting here? Im getting a tad confused.

    Honest answer. I’ve been posting here for god knows how long, generally with lower case ‘a’, although one iteration of the Crikey blog didn’t allow that.

    The recent one (capital A) reckons he’s been lurking for ages so he can use the same moniker. Whatever.

    If in doubt check out the gravatar.

  25. Player One @ #1504 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 12:50 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1501 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 4:46 pm

    Maybe you are starting to realise how offensive those arguments were?

    So holding an opinion that doesn’t agree with yours is “offensive”? (*facepalm emoji*)

    Not at all, there are many opinions expressed here that are different to mine and they do not offend me at all.

    However your positions on this issue are offensive.

    You think that a person’s right to be treated equally should be trumped by another person’s dissatisfaction with that equality.

    Our Society has clearly said that LGBTI citizens should have the same right to marry as everyone else,
    no caveat.

    Anything beyond the Smith bill would exceed the expectation of our Society and hence is offensive to our Society.

  26. P1

    No you have done the insinuations all by yourself.

    Asking which if anything you agree with or support is not saying you have agreed with anything.

    My last post was an absolutely clear one that I view you as different from Senator Leyjonhelm and certainly not agreeing with Milo Yianopoulus.

    So what are your objections? Civil celebrants? I disagree with this but I think thats going to go through.

    Or are you on its okay to discriminate on a commercial basis and I put it that way as I cannot see any other accurate way of putting it. As we saw with the sacking of the gay teacher from Western Austalia.

  27. Since the Don Burke story broke yesterday, over two hundred other people have come forward with similar stories. He must have had a lot of ‘disgruntled employees’.

  29. Adrian (with the bird)

    I dont think this site uses gravatars?

    Either way this is annoying. I would have thought you couldnt have two users with the same name no matter if one person used capitals or not.

  32. The bewildered Fifield. That sounds about right.

    Bevan Shields‏Verified account @BevanShields · 52m52 minutes ago

    Communications Mitch Fifield statement: “I am bewildered by the ABC’s decision to move the Hottest 100 from Australia Day. The ABC shouldn’t be buying into this debate. Australia Day is our national day. The ABC should honour it and not mess with the Hottest 100.” #auspol

  33. Ides of March @ #1529 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 5:24 pm

    Adrian (with the bird)

    I dont think this bsite uses gravatars?

    Either way this is annoying. I would have thought you couldnt have two uses with the same name no matter if one person used capitals or not.

    I agree, but what can you do? Maybe William has some advice.

    The gravatars are displayed on my computer/device, but I think that you have to register to use them.

  36. Player One @ #1530 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 1:26 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1525 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 5:20 pm

    Not at all, there are many opinions expressed here that are different to mine and they do not offend me at all.

    However your positions on this issue are offensive.

    There’s that irony thing again. You really don’t see it, do you?

    You really should stop using words you obviously don’t understand especially when you are again failing to address the point.

  37. Lizzie

    Says the minister responsible for a radio station he probably hasnt listened to since the Hottest 100 was a thing.

  38. At least one Coalition MP, chief government whip Nola Marino, is believed to be at risk of disqualification from Parliament due to citizenship by marriage.

    Agreement over citizenship saga
    The government and Labor Party have reached consensus over the citizenship issue to hopefully put the crisis to rest but both sides are claiming credit for making it happen.
    And the government believes Labor senator Kim Carr may have inadvertently obtained Israeli citizenship through his marriage, naming him on a “hit list” at the weekend.

    The original version of the disclosure regime – agreed to by the government and opposition earlier this month – focused on citizenship by birth and descent. It would have required MPs to disclose details relating to their birthplace, parents and grandparents, but not necessarily spouses.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/citizenship-drama-threatens-to-widen-as-spotlight-falls-on-mps-marriages-20171127-gztmv1.html

  39. P1

    Its simple. We have anti discrimination laws in this country.

    Mostly put in by Labor government’s.

    Which ones do you want to have exemptions from?

    Its not me that is looking foolish.

  41. Player One @ #1540 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 1:34 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1536 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 5:31 pm

    You really should stop using words you obviously don’t understand especially when you are again failing to address the point.

    You had a point? Other than to claim again that my opinions were “offensive”?

    Why should a person’s right to be treated equally be trumped by another person’s dissatisfaction with that equality?

  43. P1

    Yeah right. Discrimination laws put in place by Labor are worth supporting and you call me looking worse with every post.

    Thats quite a few Labor government’s you are disagreeing with. Tasmania. New South Wales The Rudd Government to name but a few.

  44. This site does indeed use “Gravatars” and I have previously posted information regarding such.

    Displayed by William on the “Dashboard” following
    Username
    First name
    Down to Display Name
    etc thence to “Profile Picture” You can change your profile picture on Gravatar
    https://en.gravatar.com/
    You will be asked to sign in with WordPress.com – easy peasy.

    The process is simple. Just do it ❗

    Quite soon after you have uploaded your picture, diagram, whatever, the Gravatar will be displayed on Poll bludger.

  46. lizzie says:
    Monday, November 27, 2017 at 5:27 pm
    …

    Communications Mitch Fifield statement: “I am bewildered….. ” #auspol …

    Yes his statement started well and went downhill.

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