BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

One new poll and no change at all on the latest poll aggregate update.

Essential Research was the only new poll this week, and it has no bearing whatsoever on the voting intention numbers in BludgerTrack. However, there is a fair bit going on in the state breakdowns, with the Coalition losing a seat in New South Wales, but gaining one apiece in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 37
1 2 37
  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    John Hewson reckons Turnbull’s only salvation will be tax reform.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-only-salvation-is-true-tax-reform-20171123-gzr6zq.html
    Mark Kenny reports on yet another derailment for Turnbull. He must be getting very close to earning “embattled” status!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-derailed-by-cabinet-leaks-and-nationals-rebellion-over-banks-20171123-gzrgsb.html
    And he tells about the leak.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/trust-deficit-cabinet-leaks-and-poor-polls-see-risks-multiply-20171123-gzr9ip.html
    Michelle Grattan says that discovering the identity of the cabinet leaker would present a bibber problem than the leak itself! What was Bishop thinking she asks?
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-discovery-of-the-cabinet-leaker-would-present-bigger-problem-than-the-leak-88030
    Waleed Aly says that the same-sex marriage debate could yet claim Malcolm Turnbull as a victim. He concludes with “What we’re seeing is the concept of religious freedom being invoked promiscuously, and then weaponised. Ultimately it won’t succeed. But there’s every chance in the meantime it will claim Turnbull as collateral damage.”
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/samesex-marriage-debate-could-yet-claim-malcolm-turnbull-as-a-victim-20171122-gzqukw.html
    David Wroe writes about the Foreign Affairs With Paper and reaction to it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/hardheaded-foreign-affairs-blueprint-praised-as-us-bombers-set-to-arrive-in-australia-20171123-gzrqsm.html
    China’s not impressed with it though.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/australian-white-paper-irresponsible-says-chinese-foreign-ministry-20171123-gzretp.html
    The SMH editorial has its say about the white paper.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/white-paper-catches-the-chill-in-the-air-20171123-gzrlny.html
    Peter Martin tells us how some of Australia’s most powerful corporate leaders have called on the country’s $2 trillion superannuation industry to become a major source of lending for local businesses in a move aimed at bypassing banks and stimulating investment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rinehart-pratt-and-fox-spearhead-push-for-super-funds-to-directly-fund-business-20171123-gzrijt.html
    LNP senator Barry O’Sullivan will attempt to have MPs cross the floor to support a probe into financial services. Google.
    /national-affairs/rogue-lnp-senator-barry-osullivan-to-lob-bombshell-banking-inquiry-bill/news-story/f9f88fddb48449d116c5235e41f8cd0a

  2. Section 2 . . .

    Ken Henry has issued an extraordinary attack on the RBA’s framework for setting rates. Google.
    /business/financial-services/competitive-advantage-forum-rba-slated-over-rates-as-big-banks-sound-alarm/news-story/ae14585be1b7feb49f27ed1e1c15d258
    On the NT royal commission this human rights fellow says time is running out for Turnbull on youth justice.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/nt-royal-commission-time-has-run-out-for-malcolm-turnbull-on-youth-justice-20171121-gzpvq0.html
    Bennelong by the numbers: The voters who could decide Malcolm Turnbull’s fate.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/11/23/bennelong-byelection-electorate-preview/
    Public service heads have pledged to confront domestic violence.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/public-service-leaders-pledge-to-confront-domestic-violence-and-do-more-to-help-victims-20171122-gzqqnp.html
    Two psychologists reveal that the catastrophic effect of the postal vote process on the LGBTQIA+ community has been well documented, with a sharp increase in demand for mental health services within the community during that process. The battle has just started they say.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/yes-the-right-campaign-won-but-its-only-the-start-of-the-battle-for-equality-20171122-gzr5ci.html
    Dennis Shanahan writes that John Howard has debunked ¬Malcolm Turnbull’s argument that religious freedoms will lead to sharia law in Australia and ¬declared he fears the fight for protections in the same-sex marriage debate will “die in the sand”. Google.
    /national-affairs/howard-tackles-turnbull-on-religious-freedoms-after-marriage-vote/news-story/a59b42bff5a929ceac993bc6e372e867
    Meanwhile Labor has rejected demands for amendments to the cross-party same-sex marriage bill, with Mark Dreyfus saying the bill is already a compromise and Louise Pratt warning MPs on both sides to respect the postal survey result.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/23/labor-rejects-coalition-conservatives-changes-to-same-sex-marriage-bill
    The world’s largest lithium-ion battery, which is being built in South Australia by Tesla to store renewable energy, is about to enter final testing. Jay Weatherill said Elon Musk’s Tesla company had finished installing the battery powerpacks at Jamestown, in the state’s mid-north, where they are linked to an adjacent windfarm. He said the 100-megawatt battery will now be energised and tested to ensure it meets all energy market and state government regulatory requirements.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/23/elon-musks-tesla-battery-in-south-australia-poised-for-final-testing
    Barnaby Joyce clearly talks the agriculture talk and walks the mining walk as he receives the inaugural Gina Rinehart prize for even worse judgement than Turnbull, writes Ingrid Matthews.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/barnaby-joyce-receives-rinehart-prize-for-even-worse-judgement-than-turnbull,10959
    Madonna King gives us the tale of two Queenslands – and One Nation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/that-thinking-feeling/a-tale-of-two-queenslands–and-of-one-nation-20171122-gzr53i.html

  3. Section 3 . . .

    The Guardian in the UK is pissed off that despite having given Teresa May clear evidence of rampant tax avoidance she still hasn’t acted.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/23/theresa-may-government-tax-avoidance-paradise-papers-inquiry
    A dishonest culture still runs deep at Uber.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/travis-kalanick-has-gone-but-a-dishonest-culture-still-runs-deep-at-uber-20171122-gzr2kp.html
    Adam Gartrell tell us how the High Court has both the “power and duty” to rule on a challenge that could disqualify a Turnbull government minister – further threatening the Coalition’s tenuous grip on power – even though the case was brought by a private citizen rather than referred by Parliament.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/high-court-has-power-and-duty-to-hear-challenge-against-turnbull-government-mp-david-gillespie-20171123-gzrfnw.html
    Climate change is creating a disaster on Australia’s doorstep, with environmental degradation and the demand for sustainable sources of food undermining stability in some countries, especially “fragile states”, according to the Australian government’s first foreign policy white paper in more than a decade. Hang on!
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/23/australia-facing-climate-disaster-on-its-doorstep-governments-white-paper-warns
    Liberal Party officials in SA have cleared Christopher Pyne of any misconduct before the 2013 election. That won’t please Bernardi. Google.
    /national-affairs/christopher-pyne-cleared-of-faction-claim/news-story/ccc920c8e0595fc80961c574bd94862c
    Turnbull has declared he “won’t be pressured” by the ongoing standoff on Manus Island after a seismic day in which police stormed the camp, destroyed property and appeared to make an arrest.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/we-will-not-be-pressured-malcolm-turnbull-warns-manus-island-refugees-after-clashes-with-police-20171123-gzr6wn.html
    The Department of Social Services has written to 8,500 current and former employees warning them their personal data held by a contractor has been breached. Under this government Centrelink has really covered itself with glory!
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/24/data-breach-hits-department-of-social-services-credit-card-system
    Woolworths will open as many as four new so-called “dark stores” used to pack and ship online orders by the end of next year as Australia’s largest supermarket prepares to defend itself from Amazon.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/woolworths-to-open-four-new-dark-stores-to-fight-amazon-20171122-gzr3tg.html
    And in a move to counter the imminent launch of Amazon Bunnings Warehouse has unveiled plans to allow customers to shop online, ending a long-standing strategy of only selling products in its stores. But it’s quite a limited offering by the look of it.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/11/23/bunnings-online-shopping-plans-amazon/

  4. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1

    Two of Sydney’s major sports stadiums will be demolished and rebuilt at a cost of $2 billion after state cabinet signed off on an expensive conclusion to the long-running saga on Thursday. But this is only the beginning it seems.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/stadium-bill-to-soar-above-2b-following-cabinet-approval-20171123-gzrbjj.html
    On this subject Clover Moore explain how power works in NSW.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/this-is-how-power-works-in-nsw-20171123-gzrehe.html

    David Rowe goes to Moby Dick to show the government’s woes. Who is the seal representing I wonder?

    A disgusted David Pope has his say about Manus Island.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Matt Golding and the cabinet leek.

    Two more from Golding.
    https://t.co/QZN7PJVWNB

    John Shakespeare intimates that Turnbull’s done.

    Matt Davidson uses AC/DC to give Turnbull a reminder.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/illustrations-by-matthew-davidson-20090928-g8gc.html
    Paul Zanetti and assisted dying of another sort.

  5. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    Mark Knight and some welcome triumphalism.

    Glen Le Lievre with a beauty,
    https://twitter.com/GlenLeLievre/status/933477337005305856
    Another from Le Lievre where he suggests it’s over for Turnbull.

    What a cracker for Alan Moir. And how true!

    Another Beauty from Moir.

    Jon Kudelka and more cabinet leaks.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/577efe6efc4259636d49b8b02dbebcca
    Simon Letch and the religious right. Quite telling!

  6. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    What happened to the Terrorism Update yesterday!?!

    Was it only simply intimated to put the frighteners up us!?!

    Is that what the Turnbull mob mean? An update to the feelings of terror we feel about Terror!?!

  7. Morning all. Thanks BK. Gladys Berejiklian has given a very generous $2 billion to build another stadium in Sydney(!). Who benefits?

    “The Cabinet decision on Thursday to super-size Mike Baird’s $1.6 billion stadium spending package represents a remarkable victory for the Sports Minister, Stuart Ayres, and his comrades on the Sydney Cricket & Sports Ground Trust – Alan Jones, Tony Shepherd, John Hartigan, Maurice Newman, Barry O’Farrell et al.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/with-perfect-schools-hospitals-and-transport-why-not-spend-on-sydney-stadiums-20171123-gzrkir.html

  8. Good morning all.
    The last 2 paragraphs of Kenny’s article
    “Doubtless Turnbull needs to reassert control, and reimpose discipline across his government. That much is obvious. But he must be careful not to make poor calls borne of panic or desperation.

    Cancelling a week of Parliament was one of those. He can ill-afford another right now.”

    Given Turnbull’s lack of judgment I would suggest he is in big trouble.

    I also liked the article in yesterday’s HUN (in BKs dawn patrol) revealing that Scott Morrison and Dutton detest each other. Apparently Dutton suggested a banking inquiry/RC to defuse the issue and Morrison shot him down.
    Their approaches are similar on the SSM leglislation. Of course Morrison is in a safe seat in Sydney’s Shire, and Dutton is on a knife edge in a Queensland marginal. Queensland is sitting at -9 in the bludgertrack seat change.

    Also if Howard considers a RC ‘rank socialism’what would he consider nationalism of the banks?

  9. Well, I think my punt on who the leaker from Cabinet is was correct. This is from Mark Kenny’s article, and you tell me if it doesn’t sound like Greg Hunt (he who runs the Liberal Dirt Unit):

    So who let the cat out of the bag?

    A theory among some ministers is that whoever did do it was simply rolling a hand grenade through the door in order to change the political calculus.

    In the era of “job-lot” High Court referrals, here was job-lot white-anting, designed to shake the orthodoxy that if Turnbull’s leadership is cooked, then the default options of Bishop, Dutton, and Morrison might be tarnished too.

    Ministers are muttering another name – a man not unused to parlour games and the back-room manoeuvres of politics.

    He also has leadership ambitions. So…

  10. Ow!
    Howard claimed a banking commission would be “rank socialism” – to which(Barry) O’Sullivan says, “I don’t understand what he means”.

  11. Socrates @ #15 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 7:06 am

    Lleyonhelm is pretty shamelessly blowing the dog whistle to raise his own low profile, but what immigration minister will let Milo in on character grounds? I can see the headline:

    “Dutton allows pro-paedophilia activist to enter the country”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/david-leyonhjelm-to-host-disgraced-altright-figure-milo-yiannopoulos-at-parliament-house-20171123-gzrcjz.html

    Someone should ask Milo if he is a member of NAMBLA? 🙂

  12. Pedant alert. I know the game is already lost but this is sooooo annoying.

    “The woman was located outside of Sunshine Hospital.”

    Everybody’s doing it now: there’s no need for “of” with “outside”.

    We don’t say “inside of” or “beside of” or even “under of” or “behind of”. 😡

  13. Asha,
    From previous thread…

    That will be Google tracking you and targeting ads.

    Even if you turn off personalized ads on Google, disable cookies, and turn on Do Not Track, Google will still track your browsing based on advert requests and Google Site Analytics data from the sites you visit.

    The new version of Safari which ships with High Sierra and Firefox Quantum have recently introduced new features to prevent this kind of tracking. I’ve been using the new Safari for a few weeks with the blocking switched on and it’s a huge improvement. I just get generic site related adverts – on PB I get UltraTune, Sportsbet, and Dell ads.

    The internet advertising industry is in uproar about this claiming it “is bad for consumer choice “.
    https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/15/apple-defends-new-ad-tracking-prevention-measures-in-safari/

    Seeing lizzies comments on AdBlocking – this doesn’t block adverts it just prevents the ability of Ad companies to track and target adverts.

  14. Lizzie, I have never seen the use of ‘of’ like that before. Thanks for pointing it out, I will watch out for it in future. I skim read and read it as outside ‘the’ hospital.

    My pet hate is people pronouncing ‘important’ with a ‘d’. Very annoying.

  15. An interesting little sequence between Mesma and Truffles, analysed by a body language expert.

    Sara‏ @_sara_jade_ · 5h5 hours ago

    Journo: Have you sought Americas commitment to the region?
    Turnbull clears throat, crosses arms, closed off, defensive. Deceitful BL.
    Bishop nose touch knows he’s lying.
    Turns to face him abruptly. Interrupts to answer.
    Turnbull furious as though she has undermined his authority

  16. Wall to Wall spruiking for PHON in Queensland on Alan Jones this morning.

    He reckons they’re going to save the state. Hints darkly of gerrymandering in SE electorates. Had Dixon on begging for votes in Buderim.

    Bolt and Price basically the same message last night. Many callers on vowing PHON support.

    This is 2GB of course, but also is Fairfax Media.

  17. Lizzie,

    There has been a feature called Do Not Track around since about 2010 that sites are meant to comply with – but companies like Facebook and Google just ignore it. What the new browsers do is actively block advert providers and other companies from tracking you. This means that rather than getting “personalized” ads based on the sites you visit Google delivers generic adverts. I keep getting the same two or three ads – none are related to politics.

  18. If we’re being pedantic, when proceeding at speed round a tight corner, you are careening around it, not careering.

    Despite the fact that if you crash into a light pole whilst employing unsafe driving practices, it may end your career, you will have ended it by careening, not careering.

  19. BK

    Peter Martin tells us how some of Australia’s most powerful corporate leaders have called on the country’s $2 trillion superannuation industry to become a major source of lending

    I smell a rat. Soooo people like banksters , Gina $2 a day and cartel Visy have our best interests at heart ?

  20. This latest polling seems to confirm that much of the One Nation vote is a “parked” dissatifaction vote which returns to it’s home when the voters realise that having ON anywhere near to power is a recipe for chaos and .dsisfunction.

    :large

  21. ‘Outside of the hospital’ isn’t picked up by my spelling/grammar checker, and a quick google suggests it’s more a case of the ‘of’ being unnecessary than it being a crime against grammar.

  22. Just on the Cabinet Leaker, all roads lead to the ‘Dream Team’ of Peter Dutton/Greg Hunt positioning for the coming Libspill. Greg Hunt set to be the new deputy, and to take over as leader if Dutton loses his seat at the next election.

  23. Bushfire Bill says:
    Friday, November 24, 2017 at 7:51 am
    If we’re being pedantic, when proceeding at speed round a tight corner, you are careening around it, not careering.

    Despite the fact that if you crash into a light pole whilst employing unsafe driving practices, it may end your career, you will have ended it by careening, not careering.

    Both are correct.

    Oxford dictionary:

    Move swiftly and in an uncontrolled way.
    ‘the coach careered across the road and went through a hedge’

    Oxford lists careening as north american:

    North American: Move swiftly and in an uncontrolled way.
    ‘an electric golf cart careened around the corner’

  24. Bushfire Bill,
    He reckons they’re going to save the state. Hints darkly of gerrymandering in SE electorates. Had Dixon on begging for votes in Buderim.

    If today must be ‘Pedants Friday’, it’s Steve Dickson, Mr Bill. 🙂

    And there is no apostrophe after ‘Pedants’ because it is a Collective Noun. But then we all knew that. 😉

  25. C@t:

    And there is no apostrophe after ‘Pedants’ because it is a Collective Noun. But then we all knew that.

    I would put an apostrophe after it. I’d like to see the rule that my usage is incorrect.

  26. I am not in agreeance with you. Perhaps I am an old fossil, but it derives from the French, and is a perfectly legitimate word, albeit in disuse in some quarters. I would use it quite happily.

    From google:

    Agreeance is a word that seems to be continually reinvented and recycled. The term first appeared in the 16th century and enjoyed its greatest popularity in the 18th and early to mid-19th centuries. Since then it has fallen into disuse.
    Agreeance | Define Agreeance at Dictionary.com
    http://www.dictionary.com/browse/agreeance

  27. John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950 · 16m16 minutes ago

    It is no coincidence that Queenslander Dutton and his goons are assaulting refugees on #Manus days before the #qldvotes election. The filthy #LNP is going after the bogan racist redneck votes. There are votes in it. #auspol #qldpol

  28. Wouldn’t it be either “Pedants’ Friday” or maybe “Pedant’s Friday” as a kind of synecdoche where the pedant referred to is an archetypal or hypothetical pedant used to represent all pedants?

    Nb I’m not a pedant myself though I am interested in language

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, November 24, 2017 at 8:19 am
    don @ #40 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 8:15 am

    C@t:

    And there is no apostrophe after ‘Pedants’ because it is a Collective Noun. But then we all knew that.

    I would put an apostrophe after it. I’d like to see the rule that my usage is incorrect.
    Modern usage and their annotations of days like that suggests it to my mind.

    Do you have a link? 🙂

  30. BB @ 7:51
    thanks for the pedantry about ‘careening’. I’m about to investigate its etymology. I imagine it’s originally nautical.
    ‘In the good old days’ Vic public exams in English used to have a question about Latin and Greek roots of words. I wonder about ‘homophobic’. Does it mean ‘fearing uniformity’ or ‘sharing a common fear’?
    As for deplorable Germano-American intrusions into English , my least favourite is ‘visit with’

Comments Page 1 of 37
1 2 37

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *