BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

One new poll and no change at all on the latest poll aggregate update.

Essential Research was the only new poll this week, and it has no bearing whatsoever on the voting intention numbers in BludgerTrack. However, there is a fair bit going on in the state breakdowns, with the Coalition losing a seat in New South Wales, but gaining one apiece in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 37
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  2. Bushfire Bill @ #27 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 6:43 am

    Wall to Wall spruiking for PHON in Queensland on Alan Jones this morning.

    He reckons they’re going to save the state. Hints darkly of gerrymandering in SE electorates. Had Dixon on begging for votes in Buderim.

    Bolt and Price basically the same message last night. Many callers on vowing PHON support.

    This is 2GB of course, but also is Fairfax Media.

    It’s relayed into Qld

  5. lizzie says:
    Friday, November 24, 2017 at 8:23 am
    don

    If I have only heard/read something in my ‘mature years’, I naturally regard it as a latecomer.

    I am almost certainly older than you, and read a lot of old books!

  6. I love how the CPG and Fairfax columnists (Hewson, Waleed Aly) are tieing themselves in ever-tightening knots trying to argue that Turnbull’s and the government’s problems are all fixable, given some simple measures and co-operation in implementing them from Labor.

    The Coalition is in government, after all, and we don’t need any more leadership merry-go-rounds, now do we? That didn’t work with Gillard or Abbott, did it? And the voters don’t want another election, do they?

    So there you have it. Bill Shorten caused all this mess by cynically taking the free kicks the government offered him on a plate, standing by while ministers leaked against each other, and generally benefiting from the unearned good luck of having Malcolm Turnbull stuff up everything he touches.

    The least Bill could do is pay back Malcolm in kind by looking the other way when the next train wreck occurs.

    After all, Labor caused this mess. You’d think they’d accept at least partial responsibility for fixing it.

  8. Morning

    Thanks BK for today’s reports.

    Meanwhile here in Melbourne, we have had another very warm night. Currently 21 degrees in my neck of woods. Not even summer and I am over this hot spell!!

  10. don @ #42 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 7:16 am

    From google:

    Agreeance is a word that seems to be continually reinvented and recycled. The term first appeared in the 16th century and enjoyed its greatest popularity in the 18th and early to mid-19th centuries. Since then it has fallen into disuse.
    Agreeance | Define Agreeance at Dictionary.com
    http://www.dictionary.com/browse/agreeance

    Grates to my ear, but I think you have to admit it is valid in a “meaning” sense.

  11. c@

    What happened to the Terrorism Update yesterday!?!

    The Foreign Policy White Paper did ChiCom Reds Under the Beds rather than terrorism. A bit of variety or a win by Foreign Affairs/Defence over DIBP/AFP/ASIO.

    Maybe Cabinet decided Dutton’s had enough publicity.

  12. So ABC giving Julie star billing on the news plus a softer than soft 6 minute interview with Sabra Lane on AM.

    As is normal doing their utmost to spruik for the magnificent one.

    Listeners could be excused for thinking that Lane has a split personality when she later went into attack mode with the Queensland Premier.

  13. GG

    Thanksgiving today in US and tomorrow is their Black Friday. Biggest retail day of the year. I am thinking the Trump saga will ramp up after this.
    IT will be interesting to see if Flynn or Kushner is next cab off rank.

  14. Ajm, precisely my point, but why Sydney listeners, forced to put up with half an hour of PHON-spruiking, could give two hoots about the fate of a local member from a fringe party in Queensland is anybody’s guess.

  15. “thanks for the pedantry about ‘careening’. I’m about to investigate its etymology. I imagine it’s originally nautical.”

    Yep; from Thesaurus.com:

    Word Origin & History
    careen 1591, “to turn a ship on its side” (with the keel exposed), from M.Fr. carene “keel,” from It. (Genoese dialect) carena, from L. carina “keel of a ship,” originally “nutshell.” Generalized sense of “to lean, to tilt” is 1883; confused with career (v.) since at least 1923. To career is to move rapidly; to careen is to lurch from side to side (often while moving rapidly).

  17. lizzie @ #20 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 3:15 am

    Pedant alert. I know the game is already lost but this is sooooo annoying.

    “The woman was located outside of Sunshine Hospital.”

    Everybody’s doing it now: there’s no need for “of” with “outside”.

    We don’t say “inside of” or “beside of” or even “under of” or “behind of”. 😡

    My Oxford dictionary lists both as OK but notes that “of” stems mainly from American usage.

    I have a different objection, wouldn’t there only be one “Sunshine Hospital” and as such it should be preceded by the definite article, “the”?

  18. “careen” can also refer to tipping a boat on its side e.g. for repairs, caulking etc.

    Probably the same origin as phrases like “to keel over”.

  19. Based on the seat changes I predict the next PM (that is the one before Bill Shorten), will be Dutton.
    On the hope that a Queensland PM will staunch the losses in that state.
    He might be ‘popular’ in Queensland or at least in parts there.

    I can see this as a compelling case for the federal Liberals.

  21. Jaeger:

    confused with career (v.) since at least 1923. To career is to move rapidly; to careen is to lurch from side to side (often while moving rapidly).

    If that is the case, the battle can be considered lost. Career and Careen are used interchangeably, and modern usage rules apply.

    I have given up the fight on ‘try to’ instead of ‘try and’. The latter has become ubiquitous.

  22. The agreeable “Hear, hear” used to be “hear him, hear him”. Of course , in those days they thought that the only ones worth listening to were male! Just as the framers of the constitution thought there was no such thing as “Australian citizenship”, only “British citizenship’.

  23. Hewson proving again that when the only tool you have is a hammer every problem looks like a nail.

    No John, tax reform isn’t going to save Trumble’s sorry arse any more than it did yours.

  24. Adrian, Sabra needed the break so she could do her nails.

    She only gets feisty on the very rare occasions she has a Labor Shadow on her program. Then it’s all interruptions, and Questions That Must Be Answered from Sabby. They don’t call it “The ‘Ask A Liberal’ Show” for nothing.

    Completely unlistenable of course. Has been for years.

  31. So it’s “The driver careered through a red light, careened around a bend, and then careamed himself on a light pole”?

  32. BK

    This should ring a few bells for you…

    The long read

    From inboxing to thought showers: how business bullshit took over

    Vacuous management-speak is easily laughed off – but is there a real cost to talking rubbish?

    By André Spicer

    ………………Although Kroning may have been killed off, Kronese has lived on. The indecipherable management-speak of which Charles Krone was an early proponent seems to have infected the entire world. These days, Krone’s gobbledygook seems relatively benign compared to much of the vacuous language circulating in the emails and meeting rooms of corporations, …………………………….Manufacturing hollow change requires a constant supply of new management fads and fashions. Fortunately, there is a massive industry of business bullshit merchants who are quite happy to supply it. For each new change, new bullshit is needed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/23/from-inboxing-to-thought-showers-how-business-bullshit-took-over;
    The Beeb has a tv program taking the mickey out of such bulldust .

    “The BBC or W1A – can you tell the difference? Quiz
    BBC2’s meta-satire W1A has been lauded as art imitating life –
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/shortcuts/2015/jul/05/wimbledon2day-bbc-w1a-difference-quiz

  33. C@tmomma @ #38 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 4:07 am

    Bushfire Bill,
    He reckons they’re going to save the state. Hints darkly of gerrymandering in SE electorates. Had Dixon on begging for votes in Buderim.

    If today must be ‘Pedants Friday’, it’s Steve Dickson, Mr Bill. 🙂

    And there is no apostrophe after ‘Pedants’ because it is a Collective Noun. But then we all knew that. 😉

    One pedant’s view may be this, while other pedants’ views may vary widely! 🙂

  37. simonahac: with the @australian reporting “nation’s peak energy regulators have crushed talk of new coal-fired power” the energy debate may have turned a corner. pic.twitter.com/1UjUvQbELN

  38. victoria says:
    Friday, November 24, 2017 at 8:31 am
    GG

    Thanksgiving today in US and tomorrow is their Black Friday. Biggest retail day of the year. I am thinking the Trump saga will ramp up after this.
    IT will be interesting to see if Flynn or Kushner is next cab off rank.

    “Black Friday” sales seem to be happening in Australia now. I had assumed the phenomenon was related to Friday the 13th but then the US connection became apparent. Luckily I don’t seem to need anything that might be on sale today.

  39. GG

    Adding to my earlier post. It does appear that Flynn may indeed be flipping. He has been concerned about Flynn Jnr,for quite some time. So no doubt would be looking for a favourable deal for both of them

  40. Citizen

    Australian businesses know it would be a bridge to far to have thanksgiving. Lol! But having a Black Friday sale day. No worries mate!

  41. I find it absolutely incomprehensible that the so called “journalist” didn’t ask “What did you say? Did you mean to say ‘One Nation’ candidate? What did you mean by that? Is a vote for LNP a vote for One Nation? How can voters trust you….” etc etc. What a waste of space. I’m beyond angry at our media.

  43. Bushfire Bill @ #73 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 8:42 am

    Adrian, Sabra needed the break so she could do her nails.

    She only gets feisty on the very rare occasions she has a Labor Shadow on her program. Then it’s all interruptions, and Questions That Must Be Answered from Sabby. They don’t call it “The ‘Ask A Liberal’ Show” for nothing.

    Completely unlistenable of course. Has been for years.

    Yes indeed. I loved her question to Julie on Manus: ‘Can you give us an update on the situation on Manus?’
    Followed up with: ‘Do you think it’s harming our international reputation?’

    That was about as hard hitting as it got.

  47. ItzaDream @ #93 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 5:03 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #77 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 8:44 am

    Jaeger @ #69 Friday, November 24th, 2017 – 4:39 am

    “[…] a gaggle of pedants”

    I think you mean “a quibble of pedants.”

    How could a number of pedants possibly form a group?

    Surely their constant nitpicking would cause major disharmony leading to a very short lifespan! 🙂

    So it’s a squabble of pedants?

    Maybe a fleeting of pedants? 🙂

  49. Believe me, the people that I have heard use the word “agreeance” are not your “16th century literary scholarship” types. Poring over etymological text books is not their thing. They can hardly make it through Who Weekly (although, come to think of it, neither can I).

  50. Shift

    It was Sunrise. The show that gave Hanson a regular platform but has done no such thing for Di Natalee or Xenophon or even a ratings winner like Jacqui Lambie

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