BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

One new poll and no change at all on the latest poll aggregate update.

Essential Research was the only new poll this week, and it has no bearing whatsoever on the voting intention numbers in BludgerTrack. However, there is a fair bit going on in the state breakdowns, with the Coalition losing a seat in New South Wales, but gaining one apiece in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

  1. Banning HTVs won’t get you peoples real preferences because very few people actually look into minor parties. Many of those have misleading names (eg any party with Family in its name is probably Christian RWNJs, patriotic sounding names are probably far right nut jobs etc).
    And many independents often have no presence at all even online.

    I generally take both ALP and Greens HTV cards to get a read on the invisible independents myself (my mother just drops all indies at bottom).

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    I must say that on Q and A last night James McGrath laid a strong claim to be crowned the prize clown of the Coalition.

    Mark Kenny on how the Coalition should deal with PHON.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/queensland-poll-shatters-the-coalitions-citycountry-myth-20171127-gztioq.html
    Peter FitzSimons says Pauline Hanson is all bigotry and bullshit and the PM should let her stew.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/pauline-hanson-is-all-bigotry-and-bullst-and-the-pm-should-let-her-stew-20171127-gztdwj.html
    Quite a good spit by Jennifer Hewett on Turnbull’s befuddling efforts, or lack thereof. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/most-people-have-no-idea-what-malcolm-turnbull-is-trying-to-achieve-20171127-gztsnb
    And Paul Bongiorno tells us all about Turnbull’s troubles with the rebelling Nats. He says there is no tidy end to this messy year.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/11/27/nationals-revolting-turnbull/
    Urban Wronski returns after a three week hiatus and says that Turnbull hides but fails to avoid disaster.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/11/27/turnbull-hides-but-fails-to-avoid-disaster/
    What a bizarre interview from Don Burke!
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/don-burke-denies-allegations-says-he-is-victim-of-a-witch-hunt-in-a-current-affair-interview-20171127-gztwui.html
    And Kate McClymont follows up with more allegations about Burke’s behaviour.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/olympic-swimmer-susie-oneill-flabbergasted-at-don-burke-comments-it-was-crude-and-it-was-belittling-20171127-gztw2n.html
    Tracey Spicer begins her article with “So many people knew. But no one stopped it. The perpetrators were promoted, while the sufferers were silenced. It was – and remains – a protection racket. These are the initial findings of our investigation into sexual harassment and indecent assault in Australia’s media and entertainment sector.” Spicer means business,
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-australian-media-industry-operates-a-protection-racket-for-men-like-don-burke-20171127-gztgu3.html
    Jenna Price writes about women’s “coming of rage” and how employers are coming under notice.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/womens-coming-of-rage-employers-who-failed-to-stop-sexual-harassers-are-on-notice-20171126-gztby7.html
    While on the subject of employers covering up such things the most senior Catholic cleric in the world to be charged with concealing the child-sex-abuse offences of another priest will face a two-week hearing starting today. Google.
    /news/nation/trial-begins-for-catholic-archbishop-accused-of-protecting-pedophile-priest/news-story/82d46cd1ceb84958d8bfb3ae0de951c6

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Pauline Hanson’s lucrative loss.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/queensland-election-one-nation-to-pocket-over-1-million-in-taxpayer-funding-despite-drubbing-20171127-gztooj.html
    Madonna King says Tim Nicholls must go but the LNP has an even bigger problem. She compares how One Nation and the LNP deal with each other on the right of politics, compared with Labor and the Greens, on the left.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/that-thinking-feeling/tim-nicholls-must-go–but-the-lnp-has-an-even-bigger-problem-20171126-gztb4e.html
    The re-election of the Palaszczuk Labor Government is a repudiation of the environmentally disastrous coal-first policies of the LNP and One Nation, writes Giles Parkinson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/qldvotes-for-climate-before-coal,10974
    Adam Gartrell on how the citizenship spotlight has shifted to MPs’ marriages. Could Nola Perino be gorn? Even Kim Carr?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/citizenship-drama-threatens-to-widen-as-spotlight-falls-on-mps-marriages-20171127-gztmv1.html
    The OECD Better Life Index has Australia sitting pretty alongside Scandinavia and Canada – but Greg Jericho drills a little deeper and points out some not too good aspects about life in Australia.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/nov/28/life-is-good-in-australia-so-why-dont-women-feel-safe-walking-home
    Dig beneath NBN Co’s sudden decision to stop all HFC connections to the national broadband network for six to nine months, and you will find an unhealthy slackness in the activation processes. Google.
    /brand/chanticleer/nbn-finally-admits-it-needs-to-put-quality-ahead-of-rollout-deadlines-20171127-gzttuj
    James Massola tells us that a sweeping inquiry into Australia’s banking and financial system appears inevitable, with a second Nationals MP confirming he will defy Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and cross the floor to deliver the crucial final vote needed to establish the probe.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/banking-inquiry-all-but-inevitable-after-another-nationals-mp-vows-to-cross-floor-20171127-gztm8l.html
    Barnaby Joyce has signalled a push by the Nationals to defy the Turnbull cabinet and embrace a banking inquiry. Google.
    /national-affairs/barnaby-joyce-open-to-nationals-revolt-on-bank-inquiry/news-story/3d4a2841e16a7e0af47f814ca8807ab5
    A majority of Australians would support a royal commission into the banks, with this week’s Guardian Essential poll showing 64% in favour, including 62% of Coalition supporters.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/27/most-australians-want-banking-royal-commission-guardian-essential-poll
    Michelle Grattan says Turnbull and Morrison appear to have become hostages to rebel Nationals determined at all costs to secure a commission of inquiry into the banks.
    https://theconversation.com/turnbull-backed-against-the-wall-by-rebel-nationals-on-bank-inquiry-88183

  4. Section 3 . . .

    Elizabeth Knight tells us why the big banks are so scared of a commission of inquiry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/why-are-the-banks-so-scared-of-a-commission-of-inquiry-20171127-gzti0x.html
    Why Radio National’s fans fear death by a thousand cuts.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/28/why-radio-nationals-fans-fear-death-by-a-thousand-cuts
    The SMH is not at all happy about the process behind the stadium spending spree in Sydney. It trots out the “questions to be answered” line.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/questions-surround-stadium-spending-spree-20171127-gzteok.html
    As the brutalisation of refugees and barbarity of places like Manus Island becomes obvious, more and more Australians want them brought here, says John Passant.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/sosmanus-demonstrators-converge-on-australian-cities,10971
    Meanwhile five Christian protesters who locked themselves to the gates of Kirribilli House in Sydney in protest of the Federal Government’s treatment of asylum seekers on Manus Island have been arrested.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/11/27/christians-chain-themselves-to-kirribilli-house-to-protest-manus_a_23288811/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Australia’s mining industry has stepped back from its hard line on trying to limit the charity sector’s lobbying on energy and climate change issues.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/28/mining-industry-body-retreats-hardline-stance-charities
    Public service agencies have reversed a decade of rising casual staff numbers by slashing non-permanent employees, a new report shows.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/casuals-take-brunt-of-public-service-cuts-apsc-report-shows-20171127-gztext.html
    Paul Smith on NBN Co’s “”glitter-to-the-turd” policy and the new heights to which it has taken spin. Google.
    /technology/web/nbn/glittertotheturd-nbn-applies-world-class-positivity-to-our-broadband-woes-20171127-gztn5c
    And the NBN rollout issues are really going to hurt in, yes, Bennelong!
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/11/27/bennelong-byelection-nbn-delay/
    Now is the time to push back on real estate agents.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/11/27/rising-rents-housing-oversupply/

  5. Section 4 . . .

    There are many things wrong with Australian democracy but stealthy, piecemeal reform by a Coalition Government is not a promising way forward, writes Barry Hindess.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/parliament-cancelled-is-this-the-coalitions-idea-of-democratic-reform,10972
    Why the pathetic neediness of Trump is so dangerous. Jenifer Rubin writes ,“ His bottomless well of insecurity makes him a sitting duck for authoritarians well-versed in the art of flattery. His self-absorption make him incurious about the world – about anything other than himself – and as one who asserts he knows more than anyone else, he cannot learn from others.”
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/why-the-pathetic-neediness-of-trump-is-so-dangerous-20171127-gztyvo.html
    Michael Koziol on Erica’s last ditch stand against SSM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/only-dead-fish-go-with-the-flow-eric-abetz-finds-a-cause-for-rebellion-in-face-of-samesex-marriage-20171127-gzthv1.html
    Rodney Croome says the Smith marriage equality bill is flawed as it is. Let’s draw the line at any further exemptions.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/27/the-smith-bill-is-flawed-as-it-is-lets-draw-the-line-at-any-further-exemptions
    A senior PricewaterhouseCoopers auditor has handed in his ticket after being accused by the corporate watchdog of botching his audit of collapsed listed vocational education outfit Vocation. Yet another example of the failings of the conflicted audit industry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/vet-college-auditor-from-pricewaterhousecoopers-loses-ticket-over-vocation-accounts-20171127-gzts58.html
    Peter Hartcher on democracy, Chinese style.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-surprising-way-the-chinese-communist-party-keeps-power-20171126-gztdqm.html
    How and why low-income earners are more likely to die early from preventable diseases.
    https://theconversation.com/low-income-earners-are-more-likely-to-die-early-from-preventable-diseases-87676
    A plan to give seriously ill Australians faster access to potentially life-saving drugs could be delayed because of Turnbull’s decision to cancel a week of lower house sittings.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbulls-parliament-gambit-risks-delaying-access-to-lifesaving-drugs-20171126-gztdel.html
    Theresa May has big border issues in Ireland as Brexit approaches – and she’s been given just ten days to fix it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/its-a-standoff-may-given-only-days-to-resolve-irish-border-issue-ahead-of-brexit-talks-20171127-gztfms.html
    Power games are going on in Australian soccer.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/warring-soccer-factions-on-collision-course-as-claims-of-government-lobbying-pressure-mount-20171127-gztti5.html

  6. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe takes us inside the Coalition sauna.

    In celebration of David Rowe’s cartoonist of the year award.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/934013745092640768/bEGu7b0q?format=jpg&name=600×314
    Cathy Wilcox bones Channel Nine’s management.

    And she ventures into Burke’s Backyard.

    John Shakespeare’s take on PHON’s electoral performance.

    Peter Broelman takes the heat out of the cricket headbutt story.

    Paul Zanetti exits Porline.

    Roy Taylor with Don Burke.

    I just LOVE this image from Mark Knight.

    And Knight goes to the headbutt incident.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b3eef82d5bc9eacbaa8c400828985d6f?width=650
    Sean Leahy doesn’t believe a word of Don Burke’s protestations.

    Jon Kudelka’s republicans’ commemorative bucket.

    An old one from Alan Moir still has currency.

    Andrew Dyson on the development of the defence white paper.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    And to finish it off this morning have a look at this cracker of an ad for NZ police recruitment.
    https://youtu.be/f9psILoYmCc

  7. Flynn lawyers just met with Mueller in latest sign a plea deal is in the works: report

    Lawyers representing former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn met on Monday with special counsel Robert Mueller’s team in the latest sign that the two sides are working on a plea deal.

    ABC News reports that the two sides met on Monday morning, days after a separate report claimed that Flynn’s legal team had stopped sharing information about the probe with Trump’s attorneys.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/flynn-lawyers-just-met-with-mueller-in-latest-sign-a-plea-deal-is-in-the-works-report/

  8. Fulvio Sammut @ #1798 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 10:08 pm

    Dear Mr. Grimace,

    I have referred your email to the Australian Federal Police and the Investigations Office of the Australian Taxation Department.

    Your knowledge of criminal activities and Taxation and Centrelink fraud leads us to suspect on reasonable grounds that you have been engaging in such activities yourself.

    A Taxation Audit will be initiated forthwith into your financial affairs, and your accounts and assets will be frozen pending seizure pursuant the Proceeds of Crime Act WA.

    You must now forthwith surrender your Passport or Passports to the nearest police station to your place of residence.

    Please be assured of my continuing interest in this matter.

    Yours faithfully,
    Christian Porter

    😀 FS!

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