BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

One new poll and no change at all on the latest poll aggregate update.

Essential Research was the only new poll this week, and it has no bearing whatsoever on the voting intention numbers in BludgerTrack. However, there is a fair bit going on in the state breakdowns, with the Coalition losing a seat in New South Wales, but gaining one apiece in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  3. poroti:

    Something MTBW used to constantly remind people of on autocue as if this was in any way relevant to Mundine’s views.

    BTW whatever happened to MTBW?

  6. PeeBee @ #1747 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 10:44 pm

    C@t, pity you couldn’t use a scroll wheel manoeuvre with your son. That works here!

    When they are your child, and right beside you, it is not easy to blow them off. 🙂

    Anyway, the good news is that he is about 5 years older now, and via the intervention of Headspace, praise be to doG for their existence, we have developed modalities for dealing with it all much better.
    🙂

  8. Player One,
    For some strange reason, I find I know exactly what you mean!

    Yeah, the ‘discussions’ here sometimes give me Stockholm Syndrome! 😀

  10. I find Mundine tedious. He is good at espousing problems but rarely does he offer solutions. Or even attempts at solutions. He would also talk underwater and out of ‘respect’ for his aboriginality people let him talk long after he has ceased saying anything meaningful.

  12. A couple of observations regarding Warren Mundine. He was a former national president of the ALP, let’s not forget that. It seems coincidental that his turn around politically came at the same time that he was rejected as a Labor candidate in a safe federal seat. He’s a careerist, pure and simple. The man has made a career out of being aboriginal. He’s good for a quote so he gets onto the TV. As for his mind, well he comes across as a simpleton. The advantage he has, is that people are too polite to call him out on it.

  13. Sky News Australia
    17 mins ·
    Peter Beattie says ‘What’s wrong with the LNP? Why wouldn’t they try and take out a smart operator like Jackie Trad by preferencing against her and why would you do over Steve Dickson so he lost his seat, forcing One Nation to retaliate, by giving preferences against the LNP, which gave Labor 10 seats’ MORE: http://bit.ly/2A7S9KW #QLDVotes

    Peter Beattie seems to be going the way of Mark Latham. I mean seriously, WTF?

  14. Bennelong byelection sweep update.

    We now have 56 Bludgers who have taken a punt on the result, with 19 tipping a Labor win and 37 tipping an L/NP win. Of those tipping an L/NP win the mean TPP is 48.1%, and the mean TPP for a Labor win is 51.55%.

    Name Labor Liberal
    2016 Election 40.28 59.72

    Name Labor Liberal
    Ophuph Hucksake 46.20 53.80
    davidwh 47.00 53.00
    Steve777 47.00 53.00
    Ides of March 47.28 52.72 (comment was 6% – 8%)
    Work To Rule 47.50 52.50
    calumniousfox 47.59 52.41
    Aqualung 47.70 52.30
    The Silver Bodgie 47.70 52.30
    steve davis 48.00 52.00
    It’s Time 48.00 52.00
    Ante Meridan 48.10 51.90
    Kevjonno 48.50 51.50
    Rex Douglas 48.25 51.75
    John Reidy 48.50 51.50
    Confessions 48.80 51.20
    Asha Leu 49.00 51.00
    Lord Haw Haw of Arabia 49.00 51.00
    Clem Attlee 49.80 50.20
    a r 49.99 50.01

    Name Labor Liberal
    Boerwar 50.00001 49.99999
    BK 50.0002 49.9998
    Sonar 50.01 49.99
    Question 50.01 49.99
    Poroti 50.08 49.12
    TallebudgeraLurker 50.25 49.75
    PuffyTMD 50.25 49.75
    Taz 50.28 49.72
    don 50.30 49.70
    Chinda63 50.40 49.60
    imacca 50.50 49.50
    Whisper 50.60 49.40
    Socrates 50.75 49.25
    Norwester 50.80 49.20
    Paddy O 50.88 49.12
    C@tmomma 51.00 49.00
    Outside Left 51.00 49.00
    Sohar 51.00 49.00
    Dan Gulberry 51.50 48.50
    D-money 51.50 48.50
    monica 51.50 48.50
    Barney in Go Dau 51.60 48.40
    Gecko 51.60 48.40
    Vogon Poet 51.75 48.25
    laughtong 52.00 48.00
    Desert Qlder 52.00 48.00
    Roger Bottomley 52.00 48.00
    Rossmore 52.20 47.80
    Shiftaling 52.30 47.70
    Tom 52.40 47.60
    Sprocket 52.50 47.50
    Adrian 52.70 47.30
    Borris 53.00 47.00
    Grimace 53.28 46.72
    rhwomat 53.50 47.50
    Roger Miller 54.00 46.00
    Fluvio Sammut 58.00 42.00

    The list has been updated for Gecko and monica, whose first entries I missed (sorry) and two new entrants.

    I’ll leave everyone with some images from today’s campaign.

    The two lovebirds behind Kristina are hereby sternly warned about the perils of intra-campaign romances:

    John Alexander and his diverse team going through the motions. Is there anyone in that photo who isnt an MP or being paid to be there:

  15. Hmm, images didn’t work. Here are the links:

    The two lovebirds behind Kristina are hereby sternly warned about the perils of intra-campaign romances:
    https://www.facebook.com/KristinaKeneallyLabor/photos/rpp.1640371862660010/1654182051278991/?type=3

    John Alexander and his diverse team going through the motions. Is there anyone in that photo who isnt an MP or being paid to be there:
    https://www.facebook.com/JulianLeeserMP/photos/pcb.928037170681407/928037140681410/?type=3

    I’d appreciate it if someone could point out where I’m going wrong with uploading an image.

  23. grimace:

    I’d appreciate it if someone could point out where I’m going wrong with uploading an image.

    When linking an image from facebook, what you first need to do is right-click the image and select Copy Image Address. Then post that URL (web address) here, as is (it will start with https://scontent-syd2-1.xx.fbcdn.net rather than http://www.facebook.com). That should work. If it doesn’t, you could upload the image first to an image-hosting site such as imgur.com and then copy and paste the resulting URL here.

  24. Testing… here’s the first image you wanted to link, grimace:

    ?oh=5db6e701c2d0bd493223a9c389e26a03&oe=5A98CD44

    edit – nope, that doesn’t work. Trying imgur method:

  26. grimace – right-click the facebook image, select Copy Image Address, then paste the link on imgur.com, wait for it to upload, then Copy Image Address and post here. You don’t need to use img brackets. A bit convoluted, but easy once you get the hang of it.

  28. There is way to post images here using a website called imgur. It is free. You have to register. It’s easy to use…….as an example
    [img][/img]

  30. Back again briefly.

    Courier Mail is reporting that 8 Qld LNP Senators are splitting leaving the LNP.

    The headline is Fateful 8. Tomorrow’s front page.

    Also great QandA. Agree with the general sentiment of posts.
    I would only add that guy at that talked about splitting right v left was dead right. You can be for the environment and for jobs. They are not mutually exclusive.

    Kezza Thanks. I appreciate it:)

    Dire polling for the LNP.

    I agree with the very like 07.

  37. Email to my local MP, Christian Porter:

    Dear Christian,

    I am emailing you about the current s.44 dual citizenship problems that are being faced by a number of parliamentarians.

    I would like you to explain to me why there have been no penalties for the Members of Parliament who have falsely signed the candidate nomination form, particularly given that the AEC nomination form for a Federal Election the form specifically draws attention to the requirements of s.44 before asking the candidate to declare that they are qualified to be elected as a Member of the House of Representatives.

    If any normal Australian were to have signed a false declaration on their Centrelink paperwork, or on their Income Tax Return, forms which are infinitely more complicated and onerous to complete than the nomination form for Parliament, resulting in them receiving a benefit of hundreds of thousands of dollars over a period of years then not only would they have to pay the money back, they’d very likely be facing serious criminal charges related to the false declaration. Having not read the form, failing to understand the requirements, not properly researching the matters covered in the paperwork and/or having a personal opinion that the law governing the requirements lacked merit would not be accepted as excuses by Centrelink or the ATO for signing a false declaration.

    I look forward to your explanation as to why the disqualified members of Parliament are not being pursued for the repayment of the salaries and other benefits they’ve received as a result of their false declarations, and to why they are not facing charges for making a false declaration.

  39. grimace:

    Email to my local MP, Christian Porter:

    I would like you to explain to me why there have been no penalties for the Members of Parliament who have falsely signed the candidate nomination form

    Exactly. And why have ‘our’ media not made a big fuss about this aspect of the saga?

  43. guytaur,
    Courier Mail is reporting is reporting that 8 Qld LNP Senators are splitting leaving the LNP.

    Are they just leaving the LNP to become Liberals or Nationals, thus presaging the end of the LNP? Or are they going to join Cory Tory and the Conservatives, or One Nation?

  44. Jeez, this waiting up for your kid to come back from a concert because he needs a lift back from the train station is for the birds!

    Anyway, I’m here for the duration. 🙂

  45. Cat

    It was a tweet from sky news of the cover.

    On my Ipad I dont know how to post the tweet here.

    I think the threat was to split on campaigning with the Liberals at all.

  46. C@tmomma @ #1793 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 9:57 pm

    guytaur,
    Courier Mail is reporting is reporting that 8 Qld LNP Senators are splitting leaving the LNP.

    Are they just leaving the LNP to become Liberals or Nationals, thus presaging the end of the LNP? Or are they going to join Cory Tory and the Conservatives, or One Nation?

    Apparently they’ll still appear as LNP on ballot papers, but all advertising, bunting, etc., will specify Nationals.

  48. Dear Mr. Grimace,

    I have referred your email to the Australian Federal Police and the Investigations Office of the Australian Taxation Department.

    Your knowledge of criminal activities and Taxation and Centrelink fraud leads us to suspect on reasonable grounds that you have been engaging in such activities yourself.

    A Taxation Audit will be initiated forthwith into your financial affairs, and your accounts and assets will be frozen pending seizure pursuant the Proceeds of Crime Act WA.

    You must now forthwith surrender your Passport or Passports to the nearest police station to your place of residence.

    Please be assured of my continuing interest in this matter.

    Yours faithfully,
    Christian Porter

  49. So, basically, a short step away from the LNP project coming crashing down around the Queenslanders’ ears?

    Ye gods! Malcolm Turnbull couldn’t keep Play Doh unified!

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