BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

One new poll and no change at all on the latest poll aggregate update.

Essential Research was the only new poll this week, and it has no bearing whatsoever on the voting intention numbers in BludgerTrack. However, there is a fair bit going on in the state breakdowns, with the Coalition losing a seat in New South Wales, but gaining one apiece in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. The politics of this impeninding RC in to Banks will revolve around the terms of reference.

    At the moment there is plenty of “dancing with your sister” with these demands from the outraged Nats from QLD.

    Lots of wind and flurry ab the moment.

  2. BB

    Many a ‘cross’ sword to come, probably. But, you’re welcome.

    I don’t forget your understanding at some of my troubles. And when we’re raw, we lash out.

  3. The stability of the polling is just brutal. All year I’ve been saying it’s stuck in the 53.x range. But like Bilbo’s graph to the right it is slowly but inevitably heading over that 54.

  4. ratsak:

    It’s like it circa 2007 all over again; the sticky polling that continues to indicate a Labor election win, coupled with the press gallery commentary that still thinks that Turnbull this time rather than Howard, can pull a rabbit out of his hat and turn it all around.

  5. I would take it as a good sign that Essential has stabilised at the 54-46 mark.

    Of all polls, Essential has seemingly always been the most stable, and the best indicator of where a final election result will be. That it seems to be comfortable sitting on its current number, is a very good indicator of an historic Labor win.

    Piercing through, and exceeding the 53 TPP barrier for Labor is the ultimate goal.

  6. From the SMH on a banking inquiry

    “But the head of the recent financial system inquiry, David Murray, warned a banking inquiry without safeguards could veer into “dangerous territory” while​ CLSA bank analyst Brian Johnson said it could affect the home loan market in the medium term.”

    I suppose that is the polite term for blackmail.

    Banking inquiry all but inevitable after another Nationals MP vows support
    A sweeping inquiry into Australia’s banking and financial system appears inevitable, with a second Nationals MP confirming he is ready to cross the floor and deliver the final vote needed to establish the probe.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/banking-inquiry-all-but-inevitable-after-another-nationals-mp-vows-to-cross-floor-20171127-gztm8l.html?btis

  7. The RC into banks will inevitably result in calls to reform the Banking Act and possibly for the separation of banking from wealth management/Super collection. Personally, I think far too much financial and market power is concentrated in too few hands and the economy would benefit greatly from reorganising the system.

  8. GG, has the smell of a Liberal Party knowing that Nola is gooooooorne and trying desperately to find a few on the ALP side to balance them out.

  9. So if Turnbull announced a Royal Commission into the Banks, who in the press gallery will call it a “reset”?

    And I am sure if he does it will have appropriate ‘safeguards’, whatever that is.

  10. Bushfire Bill,
    Whilst within the realm of the discussion about HFASD/Aspergers, may I just say now, apropos THAT night, it was one of those days when every bit of shit in one’s life hit the fan at the one time and I was trying to deal with it. So, of course, from my end I could not deal ‘happily’ and informatively with a phone call from fiona.

    I had suffered the ignominy of being publicly berated by you on your blog, on one and the same day that my eldest son was having one of his semi-regular, at that time, sessions where he would have an ‘argument’ with his family that would start over something absolutely trivial BUT extend into realms hitherto never imagined, and finally end only when I would ring my best friend at the point of extreme exhaustion, brought about from ‘arguing’ the toss with him for hour after hour after hour, until about 2am in the morning, for her to come over to my place and arbitrate the discussion and distract him to the point where he would finally agree to end the imbroglio.

    So I hope you understand better now why I may not have been entirely accommodating to all concerned when they wanted to talk things through.

    Life, not as simple as some may think it to be for others. 🙂

  11. IoM

    Mundine led a Coalition-appointed Indigenous Advisory Group that has been totally publicly mute while hundreds of millions of dollars of funding for Indigenous programs were cut.

    Mundine has been totally silent on the counter-indications of the Intervention.

    Mundine routinely talks as if he represents Indigenous people. He is entirely self-appointed. Or appointed by people like Scullion and Turnbull. He has been voted in by no-one.

    Mundine is a loudmouth in vociferously supporting Adani while he totally ignores all the Indigenous groups along the length of the dying Great Barrier Reef who are rightly concerned about global warming.

    Mundine has been totally mute on Turnbull’s contemptuous repudiation of the Uluru Statement of the Heart.

    Mumdine routinely mouths whatever aphorism du jour comes out of the mouths of Australia’s Coalition Government.

    And tonight, when called out repeatedly on the facts by Taylor, he raises his voice and starts talking over her.

  12. ‘brought about from ‘arguing’ the toss with him for hour after hour after hour, until about 2am in the morning’

    Doesn’t sound healthy. Was it really that important that you had to continue to argue hour after hour with your son?

    What were you hoping to achieve? Victory?

  13. Mundine does not agree with an Indigenous Advisory Voice selected by Indigenous People because he would most likely not be elected to be on it.

  14. For some strange reason Mozilla has decreed that the Firefox version of C+ must have a privacy policy. So Firefox C+ users, you’re now officially warned:

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    Chrome users can assume that their plugin does exactly the same thing as the Firefox version, and are thus unofficially warned.

  15. So, Mundine, who repeatedly asserts that he supports Indigenous voices in relation to Adani, DOES NOT WANT TO SUPPORT THE OUTCOME OF A MASSIVE NATIONAL CONSULTATIVE PROCESS WHICH CAME UP WITH JUST ONE RECOMMENDATION: THE ULURU STATEMENT OF THE HEART.

  16. a r @ #1731 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 7:31 pm

    For some strange reason Mozilla has decreed that the Firefox version of C+ must have a privacy policy. So Firefox C+ users, you’re now officially warned:

    C+ Privacy Policy

    If you choose to post a comment on https://www.pollbludger.net/ with this add-on installed, your comment will be transmitted to https://www.pollbludger.net/ for the purposes of having it posted on the site.

    The add-on does not collect, store, or transmit your comment or any other data to any other site or for any other purpose.

    It is possible that code running on https://www.pollbludger.net/ could detect the presence of this add-on. The add-on takes no special steps to expose or hide its existence from https://www.pollbludger.net/.

    Whether or not https://www.pollbludger.net/ chooses to detect the presence of this add-on is entirely up to https://www.pollbludger.net/.

    Chrome users can assume that their plugin does exactly the same thing as the Firefox version, and are thus unofficially warned.

    WHAT?!?!?!?!

    A plugin that allows us to comment on Poll Bludger will be used to comment on Poll Bludger!!!!

    Sincerely,
    Outraged, Col. (Ret).

  17. Mundine is a loudmouth in vociferously supporting Adani

    Is Mundine a descendant and spokesperson of the indigenous communities supposedly benefiting from Adani’s operations?

    If not he has no skin in that game.

  18. PeeBee @ #1731 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 10:29 pm

    ‘brought about from ‘arguing’ the toss with him for hour after hour after hour, until about 2am in the morning’

    Doesn’t sound healthy. Was it really that important that you had to continue to argue hour after hour with your son?

    What were you hoping to achieve? Victory?

    You obviously don’t understand, or have miscomprehended, what I was trying to explain. That is why I put ” marks around the word ‘arguing’. They are not actually arguments, but seemingly endless discussions, which involve heated words. Also, no matter how many times I did try to terminate the discussions, he would come back around and start it all up again.

    Pee Bee, you obviously have an incomplete understanding of these matters.

  19. James started with a full head of steam

    That makes a nice change for a Lib. Usually they come with a head full of shit.

    Oh, you meant ‘steaming pile’.

    As you were.

  20. Boerwar:

    Mundine is solely in the self interest game. I’d be very surprised if Qld mob could be bothered utilising his services to speak on their behalf.

  21. ‘Confessions says:
    Monday, November 27, 2017 at 10:41 pm

    Boerwar:

    Mundine is solely in the self interest game. I’d be very surprised if Qld mob could be bothered utilising his services to speak on their behalf.’

    I actually think that HE thinks he is being responsible and caring.

    In many ways, I think he may be exactly that. (A bit of the old fire in the belly comes out from time to time).

    IMO, the real problem is that he so very often talks crap.

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